Win Now vs Development

[onetimerguy]

I wanted to see how the readers feel between a win now strategy vs a development path for the team as it is currently constructed. A win now path would mean trading picks and prospects for short term players, to run as far as possible post season. A development path would not mean giving up on the season, but it would mean putting the younger players in more important roles to advance their development and/or find out what their abilities ultimately would become.

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[Cyclones Rock]

The Panarin/Bob situations muddy this up pretty badly. If the 2 were signed, I'd push the envelope a bit for winning now. In order to do so, the CBJ would need more forward scoring. After the top line, Anderson and Foligno, forward scoring is abysmal. Duclair had 8 in his first 19, but none in his last 13. He's looking like an early season flash-in-the-pan. Jenner will be lucky to hit 15-he's goalless in his last 11 and only has 6 on the season. The rest of the forwards goal scoring is, well, pitiful. I guess Hanikainen's 4 are acceptable and Dubinsky's 3 are as well given who they are-but they can't be counted on for secondary scoring realistically.

Without a boost in secondary scoring (read: a real #2C), this team is going nowhere in the post season.

In their last 6 games against teams in the top 16, the CBJ are 1-5 and have scored 12 goals. Half of those goals (6) were in the 9-6 debacle vs. Calgary. This is a scoring-challenged team against quality opponents.

The decision upon which direction to go will be all about the Panarin/Bob situations. The team is not good enough to make noise in the playoffs with them as currently configured. If they're not going to sign, may as well get something for each of them.

So, given that my read is that neither will sign, then the only sensible path is the "developmental" one.

 

[JacketsDavid]

I'm all in for win now, assuming we don't get blown away by an offer for Panarin and/or we don't go into a slump.

As long as we're fighting for a potential 1st round home series I'm good playing this thing out. Now if we tail off and suddenly we look like more of a wild card type of team then I would certainly look around to see what was offered.

 

[EspenK]

I'm in for the development approach. I agree with Cyclone's analysis. This team as constructed isn't going anywhere in the playoffs imo.

If Bread & Bob don't indicate a willingness to re-sign (and preferably do re-sign prior to the deadline) at reasonable terms I'd trade them in a heartbeat although Bob would have to ok being dealt.

If they don't re-sign or indicate they will and the Jackets can't/won't trade them I'd be very cautious about trading high picks or good prospects for playoff help which limits the potential returns.

If Duchene was available I might take a shot at getting him with the hope of re-signing him.

Tough situation with no easy answer short of both re-signing.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

They've never won a playoff series.

Let's do EVERYTHING we can to do that.

 

[EspenK]

They've never won a playoff series.

Let's do EVERYTHING we can to do that.

So you'd trade #1 ('s?) and top prospects for a playoff run? Even if you knew Bob & Bread were gone come 7/1?

Seems to me there is a bit of "hey our 15-1-1 finish sets us up big time for the next year" which if I recall correctly started 0-8?

If Bob & Bread were safe I'd agree with you. Otherwise I think it is unwise.

Guess this is what makes the world go 'round.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

So you'd trade #1 ('s?) and top prospects for a playoff run? Even if you knew Bob & Bread were gone come 7/1?
.

Yes, because there is zero chance the team will be better if they lose them both as UFA's. So wait another, what, 3-4 years to HOPE the young players develop? Nah.

 

[JacketsDavid]

Yes, because there is zero chance the team will be better if they lose them both as UFA's. So wait another, what, 3-4 years to HOPE the young players develop? Nah.

That's my thinking too. We've been waiting until next year since 1999. Our pipeline isn't filled with good/elite depth so once Panarin and Bob are gone, then they are gone.
If we are planning on tanking we should trade them both now to trade to miss the playoffs and improve our draft status.

 

[onetimerguy]

That's my thinking too. We've been waiting until next year since 1999. Our pipeline isn't filled with good/elite depth so once Panarin and Bob are gone, then they are gone.
If we are planning on tanking we should trade them both now to trade to miss the playoffs and improve our draft status.

I'm actually an advocate for going for it now. Drafting is an educated guess. You can throw $ at un-drafted college and Euro free agents (Like Panarin was in the KHL) to try to re-stock your prospects pipeline.

When you think you are close, you must go for it in today's sports world.

Would you trade a couple of world series wins like the Florida Marlins in baseball, or a title like the cavs in basketball, for just as many miserable years after. Or be stuck in the middle like we are now?

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

I get the whole go for it now argument, I just have a feeling it will have the lasting legacy of being a fart in the wind.

I am not sure how I feel about trading futures and prospects for the chance to lose 4-2 in the first round. But if /when Bob and Panarin walk, the team will still be in the doldrums.

I am interested to see how they play this.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I get the whole go for it now argument, I just have a feeling it will have the lasting legacy of being a fart in the wind.

And the development thing could end up being like living next to a fart machine for several years.

 

[major major]

It was simple enough for me before the Panarin/Bob mess came about. The Jackets should aim to contend when Jones and the rest of the young core are at their best and providing their best value to contract. That would have been sometime between now and 4 or 5 years from now. The time for investing heavily in rentals in that prospective period would be in the later years of it. The Panarin/Bob mess has put a potential slice down the middle of that contending period.

I don't see why folks say the Panarin/Bob situation makes them less inclined to go for it now. It should be the opposite. You obviously will have a better shot of winning with them in the lineup than without them. Perhaps the team will evolve to be better in a few years regardless, but we don't know that. I would absolutely look for a 2C solution this year, rental or permanent, and go for it.

Per the OP's note about putting young players in more important roles, I don't think that's an issue right now. Dubois and Werenski are in very important roles, as they showed us last game. They are by far our youngest players, and we know what we have in them. We're also unlikely to add anyone of that caliber in the next years, because the team is too good and players like those two are too rare. The Jackets are tied for the 3rd most wins since the start of 2016-17, and the core is young. They aren't going to be getting good draft picks for a long time.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

And the development thing could end up being like living next to a fart machine for several years.

Stop saying bad things about Detroit.

 

[koteka]

Keep Bob and Bread and make modest improvements (like a left wing with at least another year on his contract or RFA) and see where this goes.

Stay far away from Duchene and most of the other names I see tossed around on this board. We don’t need more Adam Foote, Jeff Carter, Nathan Horton mistakes.

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

Also, I have to ask, when people say go for it, do they mean picking up some hefty rentals? Or do we mean just plugging some holes like the Cole and Vanek acquisitions?

 

[major major]

The Panarin/Bob situations muddy this up pretty badly. If the 2 were signed, I'd push the envelope a bit for winning now. In order to do so, the CBJ would need more forward scoring. After the top line, Anderson and Foligno, forward scoring is abysmal. Duclair had 8 in his first 19, but none in his last 13. He's looking like an early season flash-in-the-pan. Jenner will be lucky to hit 15-he's goalless in his last 11 and only has 6 on the season. The rest of the forwards goal scoring is, well, pitiful. I guess Hanikainen's 4 are acceptable and Dubinsky's 3 are as well given who they are-but they can't be counted on for secondary scoring realistically.

Without a boost in secondary scoring (read: a real #2C), this team is going nowhere in the post season.

In their last 6 games against teams in the top 16, the CBJ are 1-5 and have scored 12 goals. Half of those goals (6) were in the 9-6 debacle vs. Calgary. This is a scoring-challenged team against quality opponents.

The decision upon which direction to go will be all about the Panarin/Bob situations. The team is not good enough to make noise in the playoffs with them as currently configured. If they're not going to sign, may as well get something for each of them.

So, given that my read is that neither will sign, then the only sensible path is the "developmental" one.

It seems like you're saying the club shouldn't go for it and rent a 2C because it lacks the secondary scoring to compete in the playoffs (i.e. a real 2C).

A great 2C would do wonders for the team and we should trade futures to get one, ideally a permanent solution, but a rental like Staal or Hayes would still be a vast improvement. The rest of the middle six is fine - Anderson, Foligno, Jenner - that's the sort of middle-six scoring jam that teams dream of having in the post-season. If you look at the top teams' forward goal totals from their 4th highest forward to their 9th highest, it's usually about a dozen goals down to about 5 goals. That's where the Jackets are. The only club that is well ahead of that is Tampa, and no one compares well to Tampa right now.

 

[JacketsDavid]

Also, I have to ask, when people say go for it, do they mean picking up some hefty rentals? Or do we mean just plugging some holes like the Cole and Vanek acquisitions?

That's more my thinking is tinkering, not so trading the future away. Now if you can trade for right guy obviously. But I'm not interested in trading the 2020 1st round pick, because without Bob and Panarin it could be a decent pick. But if' we're playing well I don't mind trading 2019 picks if it helps the team.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

One of the arguments against trading Panarin/Bob would be Jarmo's awful first round draft record below pick #8.

Dano, Rychel, Wennberg (2013)
Milano (2014)
Carlsson (2015) too early to evaluate
Foudy (2017) same

2013 and 2014 don't look very good as of today.

 

[EspenK]

^^^^^^^
You mean trade the 2019 #1 cause Jarmo will most likely screw it up if we keep it?

 

[Maylo]

^^^^^^^
You mean trade the 2019 #1 cause Jarmo will most likely screw it up if we keep it?

No, he meant JK won't be able to draft elite forward to replace Panarin, because he's not capable of it.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

At some point development needs to turn into win now. We've been "developing" ever since Jarmo and JD got here.

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

At some point development needs to turn into win now. We've been "developing" ever since Jarmo and JD got here.

Do we go into that mode simply because? Or do we think this team is a few pieces away from seriously contending? I think that is the key distinction.

If you are talking a few small pieces, sure, no issue. If you mean trading away future draft capital and gutting the prospect pool, mediocre as it is, I am less certain. Unless, of course, they know they can keep Bob/Panarin and acquire a player who will help the team for years to come.

I can be talked into either direction depending upon how many beers I have had.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Do we go into that mode simply because? Or do we think this team is a few pieces away from seriously contending? I think that is the key distinction.

If you are talking a few small pieces, sure, no issue. If you mean trading away future draft capital and gutting the prospect pool, mediocre as it is, I am less certain. Unless, of course, they know they can keep Bob/Panarin and acquire a player who will help the team for years to come.

I can be talked into either direction depending upon how many beers I have had.

I don't think we are in win now mode right now. There are clearly a couple of steps left to take to hang with TOR and TBL from a talent perspective. If Bob and Panarin walk, they go back to the beginning of the development path in my opinion. If Bob and Panarin stay, they should go into win now more for the next 2-3 years starting next year while they are at the top of their game.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

We still have a full two months basically before we need to make that call, but as someone who is on the "trade Panarin if he won't sign" train, I am just curious what this team does that makes people think we can win the cup, even with some additions at the deadline?

Unless the club falls off a cliff, we're going to be in the hunt for the playoffs with or without Panarin. Obviously, our chances are way way better with him, and maybe he would be the difference between getting a wild card/division spot over missing, but what's so special about that if we go out in the first round? Even if its a 6-7 game exit, that's not progress, and you lose your best player(s ) for nothing. That would really hurt. Being realistic, the Jackets won't be able to get fair value for Panarin in a trade, and if they chose to keep him they won't be able to add anything significant to the roster that makes you go "now that's a team that can win now."

However, I do see the argument of "you don't know how prospects/picks will develop. Go for it now." It's a really tough call.

 

[thebus88]

Both.

Who are we firing, though?