67Leafs67
Registered User
- Nov 8, 2014
- 774
- 631
It isn't that I haven't considered the underlying benefits...I just don't put a whole lot of stock into the 'psychological impact' aspect of it, or the argument that there is 'tons of future value in making a solid run'. Teams make solid runs all the time, and then fall flat the next season. Winning a playoff series (let alone a 'play-in' series) isn't some magical potion that breaks a psychological barrier, enabling you to now know what it takes to win.Well you are looking at statistics right.
Well there are really two scenarios:
1) 12.5% chance of Lafreniere. If we win, we have some kind of increased chances for 3 years (before we have to re-sign him and likely trade someone as good as him just to keep him) and a boatload of assets. If we lose, well we come out a lot worse than in scenario 2.
2) 6.5% chance of winning the Cup (which is the number I believe you said were the chances previously).
However, there are other things to consider. If this team fails to even make the playoffs, what kind of psychological impact does that have on the team? Weigh that vs. if they lose in the first round again, or make it past the first round but do not win the Cup. Even if the Leafs do not win the Cup, there is a ton of future value in just making a solid run, which the Leafs likely have a much better statistical chance of doing than winning Lafreniere (if we have a 6.5% chance of winning the Cup, then we must have a much better than 12.5% chance of making it to at least round 2).
Also, if the Leafs win the lottery, we still give up an unprotected 1st round pick in 2021. I have taken a look at 2021 and right now there are much better prospects in the late 1st round than what I have been seeing in the 2020 draft. There are no guarantees, but we have a pretty good shot at a Robertson or Sandin level prospect with a late 1st rounder in 2021.
Really, it is not as irrational as you think to say go for a Cup this year, because there are a lot of other underlying benefits that you are not really considering if we are going for it.
What it takes to win is a good team, constantly reloading with assets to remain good, so that they can stay in the mix long enough for the stars to align one year, and for them to get their Cup. A player like Lafreniere changes that. Unquantifiable, media narrative conjecture about winning psychology does not.
Take a look at the St. Louis Blues. Missed the playoffs in 2018. That didn't seem to have too detrimental of a psychological impact on them, because, as we all know...they won the Cup the next season. Their leading scorer and MVP, Ryan O'Reilly, had a grand total of 13 career playoff games, and an 0-2 series record. Their starting goaltender and key to success, Jordan Binnington, had 0 career playoff games and none of this magical winning experience.
Either way, I'm obviously cheering for a Toronto win. That's beyond questioning. However, from my point of view, I can't deny that losing this series creates a larger potential for future benefit to the team. Both chances are extremely small though, so I'll run with the Cup chances any day.