Win against CBJ or tank & get spanked?

What do you want to see?


  • Total voters
    167

67Leafs67

Registered User
Nov 8, 2014
773
630
Well you are looking at statistics right.

Well there are really two scenarios:
1) 12.5% chance of Lafreniere. If we win, we have some kind of increased chances for 3 years (before we have to re-sign him and likely trade someone as good as him just to keep him) and a boatload of assets. If we lose, well we come out a lot worse than in scenario 2.
2) 6.5% chance of winning the Cup (which is the number I believe you said were the chances previously).

However, there are other things to consider. If this team fails to even make the playoffs, what kind of psychological impact does that have on the team? Weigh that vs. if they lose in the first round again, or make it past the first round but do not win the Cup. Even if the Leafs do not win the Cup, there is a ton of future value in just making a solid run, which the Leafs likely have a much better statistical chance of doing than winning Lafreniere (if we have a 6.5% chance of winning the Cup, then we must have a much better than 12.5% chance of making it to at least round 2).

Also, if the Leafs win the lottery, we still give up an unprotected 1st round pick in 2021. I have taken a look at 2021 and right now there are much better prospects in the late 1st round than what I have been seeing in the 2020 draft. There are no guarantees, but we have a pretty good shot at a Robertson or Sandin level prospect with a late 1st rounder in 2021.

Really, it is not as irrational as you think to say go for a Cup this year, because there are a lot of other underlying benefits that you are not really considering if we are going for it.
It isn't that I haven't considered the underlying benefits...I just don't put a whole lot of stock into the 'psychological impact' aspect of it, or the argument that there is 'tons of future value in making a solid run'. Teams make solid runs all the time, and then fall flat the next season. Winning a playoff series (let alone a 'play-in' series) isn't some magical potion that breaks a psychological barrier, enabling you to now know what it takes to win.

What it takes to win is a good team, constantly reloading with assets to remain good, so that they can stay in the mix long enough for the stars to align one year, and for them to get their Cup. A player like Lafreniere changes that. Unquantifiable, media narrative conjecture about winning psychology does not.

Take a look at the St. Louis Blues. Missed the playoffs in 2018. That didn't seem to have too detrimental of a psychological impact on them, because, as we all know...they won the Cup the next season. Their leading scorer and MVP, Ryan O'Reilly, had a grand total of 13 career playoff games, and an 0-2 series record. Their starting goaltender and key to success, Jordan Binnington, had 0 career playoff games and none of this magical winning experience.

Either way, I'm obviously cheering for a Toronto win. That's beyond questioning. However, from my point of view, I can't deny that losing this series creates a larger potential for future benefit to the team. Both chances are extremely small though, so I'll run with the Cup chances any day.
 
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LeafsNation75

Registered User
Jan 15, 2010
37,975
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Toronto, Ontario
It isn't that I haven't considered the underlying benefits...I just don't put a whole lot of stock into the 'psychological impact' aspect of it, or the argument that there is 'tons of future value in making a solid run'. Teams make solid runs all the time, and then fall flat the next season. Winning a playoff series (let alone a 'play-in' series) isn't some magical potion that breaks a psychological barrier, enabling you to now know what it takes to win.

What it takes to win is a good team, constantly reloading with assets to remain good, so that they can stay in the mix long enough for the stars to align one year, and for them to get their Cup. A player like Lafreniere changes that. Unquantifiable, media narrative conjecture about winning psychology does not.

Take a look at the St. Louis Blues. Missed the playoffs in 2018. That didn't seem to have too detrimental of a psychological impact on them, because, as we all know...they won the Cup the next season. Their leading scorer and MVP, Ryan O'Reilly, had a grand total of 13 career playoff games, and an 0-2 series record. Their starting goaltender and key to success, Jordan Binnington, had 0 career playoff games and none of this magical winning experience.

Either way, I'm obviously cheering for a Toronto win. That's beyond questioning. However, from my point of view, I can't deny that losing this series creates a larger potential for future benefit to the team. Both chances are extremely small though, so I'll run with the Cup chances any day.
The Blues had also reached the Western Conference Finals in 2016. Plus they also made the playoffs in 2017 making the second round. So they had actual playoff success unlike the Maple Leafs in 2017, 2018, and 2019.
 

67Leafs67

Registered User
Nov 8, 2014
773
630
The Blues had also reached the Western Conference Finals in 2016. Plus they also made the playoffs in 2017 making the second round. So they had actual playoff success unlike the Maple Leafs in 2017, 2018, and 2019.
Okay fine. What about the 2008 Penguins? Made it to Game 6 of the Stanley Cup finals after a first round loss in five games the season before, and no previous playoff series wins since 2001 I believe. I'm sure there are plenty of other examples out there.
 

LeafsNation75

Registered User
Jan 15, 2010
37,975
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Okay fine. What about the 2008 Penguins? Made it to Game 6 of the Stanley Cup finals after a first round loss in five games the season before, and no previous playoff series wins since 2001 I believe. I'm sure there are plenty of other examples out there.
The Penguins still had Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. While I very much enjoy the Maple Leafs having Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and Mitch Marner, they aren't in the same class as Crosby and Malkin when their careers had started.
 

67Leafs67

Registered User
Nov 8, 2014
773
630
The Penguins still had Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. While I very much enjoy the Maple Leafs having Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and Mitch Marner, they aren't in the same class as Crosby and Malkin when their careers had started.
That's exactly my point though - Crosby & Malkin were good, so they didn't need some 'learning experience' to be able to win significant games. More so, the Penguins were a good team. Boiling it down to individual players is just a fallacy of composition (especially in a sport where, comparatively, superstars have far less of an impact on the overall results of single games, let alone championships). In the same way, your best bet is to build a good team. The whole idea is absurd anyways. If it takes 'winning experience' to be able to win, then nobody ever would have been able to win anything. It is logically incoherent and self-defeating.
 

Wafflewhipper

Registered User
Jan 18, 2014
14,114
5,694
Win, this roster was made to make noise in the playoffs, until Babcock almost ruined that
He did ruin it last year. I gave up on harping on him ever coming back when i knew he was coming back. Ohhh was i ever pleased the day they canned his arse.
Any coach who even lets a fourth line on the ice in the third period that you are behind on is to detrimental .
 

LeafsNation75

Registered User
Jan 15, 2010
37,975
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Toronto, Ontario
He did ruin it last year. I gave up on harping on him ever coming back when i knew he was coming back. Ohhh was i ever pleased the day they canned his arse.
Any coach who even lets a fourth line on the ice in the third period that you are behind on is to detrimental .
Last year in Game 6 against Boston when Auston Matthews scored to make it a 3-2 Bruins lead in the 3rd period, who does Babcock put out for the faceoff at Centre? None other then the Frederik Gauthier and the 4th line.
 
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LeafsOHLRangers98

Registered User
Jun 13, 2017
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So many weird takes in here from the people hoping we lose. But the worst is assuming we'll win and get 1st overall. We would have an 87.5% chance of losing and not having a 1st round pick vs. the 12.5% chance we win 1st overall.

I take a shot at the Stanley Cup every time. You play the game to win, not pull a Buffalo and live in the sewer and then hope you're suddenly good enough to win the Cup. If this team can't take the next step and make a run with this coach, this offense, a healthy defense, and hopefully solid goaltending from Freddie, then we have much bigger problems to look at here.
 

LeafsNation75

Registered User
Jan 15, 2010
37,975
12,506
Toronto, Ontario
So many weird takes in here from the people hoping we lose. But the worst is assuming we'll win and get 1st overall. We would have an 87.5% chance of losing and not having a 1st round pick vs. the 12.5% chance we win 1st overall.

I take a shot at the Stanley Cup every time. You play the game to win, not pull a Buffalo and live in the sewer and then hope you're suddenly good enough to win the Cup. If this team can't take the next step and make a run with this coach, this offense, a healthy defense, and hopefully solid goaltending from Freddie, then we have much bigger problems to look at here.
If Carolina is getting the Maple Leafs 1st round pick this year it's better to defeat Columbus and make sure it falls between 16th - 31st overall, with the preference being 31st because that means Toronto has won the Stanley Cup.

If Toronto loses to Columbus and doesn't win the 1st overall pick, that means the pick will fall between 11th - 15th overall.
 
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Man Bear Pig

Registered User
Aug 10, 2008
30,995
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I say go for the pick. I was always a gambling man and 12.5% might as well be 100%. Why go for the championship when we can just use the Oilers blueprint and create a dynasty of losers.
 
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Mess

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
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No fan wants to see their team lose.

There might only be 1 exception to that every rule in general, and that is when there is NO chance at making they playoffs, and its in the teams best interest to loose in order to improve its draft position and build towards its future.

Its how we got Auston Matthews after all. :)

However in context to the present where we're 3 wins away from competing in the Stanley Cup playoffs then nobody would think tanking at this point would be in Leafs best interest, particularly in a year where we've already traded our 1st round pick away for the long shot odds of trying to win a draft lottery.

Missed playoffs and no 1st round pick would be the worst possible outcome to this season for any Leaf fan.
 

LeafsOHLRangers98

Registered User
Jun 13, 2017
6,572
6,718
17 voters picked tanking??? In the playoffs?

Hope these were not Leafs Fans.
The two options should really be, would you rather:

A) Lose and have no 1st round pick this year, giving Carolina one in the 10-15 range.

or

B) Try to win the cup as well as push that 1st rounder to 2nd round value territory.

-And I bet you would still get 10-15 people that pick A just because they want to unload on Dubas all summer for trading the pick.
 
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nuck

Schrodingers Cat
Aug 18, 2005
11,339
2,422
Even adding a possibly generational talent like McDavid isn't the short path to a championship and nobody thinks Lafreniere is that. A wonderful consolation prize if they get blown out in the first round but he doesn't fill any holes in the lineup unless you are dealing him immediately for a star D man with huge salary retention. This year's playoff is going to be a free for all based on how any clubs lineup took care of themselves during the layoff and which goalies are hot. All I want to think of is CBJ and what a great series this could be.
 
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moon111

Registered User
Oct 18, 2014
2,890
1,283
What I want to see is progress. Whether that's rebuilding or building the roster. To me, losing in last year's playoffs wasn't the biggest disappointment. It was they didn't feel like they accomplished much from the previous season. I'm excited to see how things will play out without a coach who's decisions are based on agendas wrapped around his ego.
 

LeafsNation75

Registered User
Jan 15, 2010
37,975
12,506
Toronto, Ontario
There might only be 1 exception to that every rule in general, and that is when there is NO chance at making they playoffs, and its in the teams best interest to loose in order to improve its draft position and build towards its future.

Its how we got Auston Matthews after all. :)

However in context to the present where we're 3 wins away from competing in the Stanley Cup playoffs then nobody would think tanking at this point would be in Leafs best interest, particularly in a year where we've already traded our 1st round pick away for the long shot odds of trying to win a draft lottery.

Missed playoffs and no 1st round pick would be the worst possible outcome to this season for any Leaf fan.
The year Toronto was able to finish last place overall and win the draft lottery to draft Auston Matthews, because it was a 20% chance of that happening and 47.5% chance they would have dropped to the 4th overall pick. Plus we knew the Leafs didn't have a good team going into that season and got very lucky how things turned out.

This year if they happen to lose the play in series against Columbus it's a 12.5% chance they win the 1st overall pick and a 87.5% chance that doesn't happen.
 

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