Willy Ny contract thread part Se7en

[hotpaws]

It shouldn’t be a tough decision.... everybody knows his market value.

which is ?

because it seems like there's many differing opinions on his value

 

[KPower]

which is ?

because it seems like there's many differing opinions on his value

6.2 for 6
6.5 for 7
6.8 for 8

Something in that ballpark.

 

[4thline]

so what is the team trying to do , save cap space or make it seem like they won ?

Neither. Both. It's about balance and tradeoffs, recognizing that UFA and RFA years are different, and that the smoothed "xx cap Av" long term contracts of today are not actually representative of player value in each year -they're just that, an average.

Look back at the schedule I posted on the last page. Relatively small increases in average driven by much bigger single year increases, with each progressing year included on the contract worth a lot more than the initial years, and a lot more than the ave. If we give him the higher ave for less term without getting those same years included at that ave we end up paying more for the sum of his career. It's tradeoffs both ways.

As I said before I think its a game of chicken. Dubas pressing his leverage to get a fair (today) 7-8 year deal in place, Nylander holding out to get a contract more in line with what he'd be worth if he was negotiating next summer, and if no one blinks it ends up at 3 years followed by a trade. And I'm more than happy with that.

 

[Tak7]

6.2 for 6
6.5 for 7
6.8 for 8

Something in that ballpark.

Accurate.

 

[kb]

To be clear, a 7MM x8 contract means that Willy is valued at Ehlers + 1 year at $14MM? You can see why I'm skeptical no?

Because Ehlers is only one comparable, and had lesser PPG stats playing with better players - no matter if you are taking it either after his second or 3rd year. Ehlers most common linemates the past 2 seasons are Wheeler, Schiefele, Laine, and Little. Nylander has had one of Hyman, Komarov, or Greening on his line at least 80% of his EV time over the past 3 seasons. And lets not forget that he didn't play exclusively with Matthews either.

 

[hotpaws]

6.2 for 6
6.5 for 7
6.8 for 8

Something in that ballpark.

i'll give you an example between being a ufa at 28 as compared to 30

would you be happy giving JT the same deal we gave him if he was 30 instead of 28 ? i know i wouldn't be offering him the same $$$/term

 

[kb]

6.2 for 6
6.5 for 7
6.8 for 8

Something in that ballpark.

This is pretty much my line of thinking too.

 

[56 Years No Cup]

This is pretty much my line of thinking too.

Thirded.

 

[pcruz]

Neither. Both. It's about balance and tradeoffs, recognizing that UFA and RFA years are different, and that the smoothed "xx cap Av" long term contracts of today are not actually representative of player value in each year -they're just that, an average.

Look back at the schedule I posted on the last page. Relatively small increases in average driven by much bigger single year increases, with each progressing year included on the contract worth a lot more than the initial years, and a lot more than the ave. If we give him the higher ave for less term without getting those same years included at that ave we end up paying more for the sum of his career. It's tradeoffs both ways.

As I said before I think its a game of chicken. Dubas pressing his leverage to get a fair (today) 7-8 year deal in place, Nylander holding out to get a contract more in line with what he'd be worth if he was negotiating next summer, and if no one blinks it ends up at 3 years followed by a trade. And I'm more than happy with that.

It's a game of chicken in the sense that Dubas is driving a military transport truck while Nylander is driving a Smart Car.
Sure it'd be annoying to have to repair the dents on the bumper, possibly the front hood, and get a new paint job, but.... that little car will look like shrapnel if the driver doesn't swerve to avoid that giant truck.

 

[KPower]

i'll give you an example between being a ufa at 28 as compared to 30

would you be happy giving JT the same deal we gave him if he was 30 instead of 28 ? i know i wouldn't be offering him the same $$$/term

What do you think Nylander should get?

 

[Notsince67]

Because Ehlers is only one comparable, and had lesser PPG stats playing with better players - no matter if you are taking it either after his second or 3rd year. Ehlers most common linemates the past 2 seasons are Wheeler, Schiefele, Laine, and Little. Nylander has had one of Hyman, Komarov, or Greening on his line at least 80% of his EV time over the past 3 seasons. And lets not forget that he didn't play exclusively with Matthews either.

Lets not forget Ehlers scored more goals.
Point is that valuing Willy at 8 years vs Ehlers's 7 years, no numbers should equal a differential of $14MM-$16MM.

 

[4thline]

Thirded.

It's the high end for me, would be fine with the 7 and 8, but having him expire with JT under contract and no RFA rights is simply a bad idea.

If I'm Dubas I give Nylander 4 offers to pick and sign when he's ready

5.2x3
5.4x4
6.3x7
6.8x8

 

[kb]

Lets not forget Ehlers scored more goals.
Point is that valuing Willy at 8 years vs Ehlers's 7 years, no numbers should equal a differential of $14MM-$16MM.

What about the better players that Ehlers could ride shotgun on, much like Pastrnak? They both played with better players and had slightly lesser PPG. This whole "goals" thing is absolute garbage. A goal has to be scored for a player get a point. Does it really matter who scores it?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

No Nylander doesn't just have to accept it, if he wants to fight he can

To no avail. He doesn't hold the cards.

His potential payoff is likely to decrease every week he holds out.

The optics aren't even in his favor.

Matthews doesn't need him. The Leafs don't need him. And he's about to find that out.

When people start talking about the big 3

...

Matthews, Tavares, and Marner .....

willy will realize what bargaining power he has. None.

 

[Menzinger]

What about the better players that Ehlers could ride shotgun on, much like Pastrnak? They both played with better players and had slightly lesser PPG. This whole "goals" thing is absolute garbage. A goal has to be scored for a player get a point. Does it really matter who scores it?

It’s a strange phenomena I’ve noticed them on Leafs fan since they drafted Matthews, that only goal seem to matter when comparing players. Which is particularly odd given that Nylander and Marner both excel as playmakers first and foremost

 

[hotpaws]

What do you think Nylander should get?

5m x 2 yrs
6.2 x 5
6.6 x 6
7 .25 x 7
7.75 x 8

while he hasn't earned over 7 if i'm him that's what i'd demand to become a ufa at a later age thereby probably costing me millions on my next deal

 

[56 Years No Cup]

It’s a strange phenomena I’ve noticed them on Leafs fan since they drafted Matthews, that only goal seem to matter when comparing players. Which is particularly odd given that Nylander and Marner both excel as playmakers first and foremost

I know your not addressing me, but I have always thought that the second assist is mostly fluff, and sometimes even the first assist. To me an assist should occur at the very least on the offensive side of the red line.

For example, Gardiner has the puck waiting behind his net, Nylander takes it and skates it all the way up the ice, passes to Matthews and he scores. Does Gardiner really deserve an assist on that?

 

[Notsince67]

What about the better players that Ehlers could ride shotgun on, much like Pastrnak? They both played with better players and had slightly lesser PPG. This whole "goals" thing is absolute garbage. A goal has to be scored for a player get a point. Does it really matter who scores it?

Your argument doesn't really work. Last year EV TOI.QOT for nylander was 31.28 and Ehlers was 30.63. Nylander actually played with better team mates.
I now expect you to drop you stance and take up the "Dubas hold strong" banner

 

[Notsince67]

It's the high end for me, would be fine with the 7 and 8, but having him expire with JT under contract and no RFA rights is simply a bad idea.

If I'm Dubas I give Nylander 4 offers to pick and sign when he's ready

5.2x3
5.4x4
6.3x7
6.8x8

That is the high water mark of fair.

 

[hotpaws]

To no avail. He doesn't hold the cards.

His potential payoff is likely to decrease every week he holds out.

The optics aren't even in his favor.

Matthews doesn't need him. The Leafs don't need him. And he's about to find that out.

When people start talking about the big 3

...

Matthews, Tavares, and Marner .....

willy will realize what bargaining power he has. None.

if we don't need him then trade him , why bother wasting time never mind 6 plus million in cap space on aplayer so easily replaceable

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Well everybody else in the league has had a few weeks training camp and 4 exhibition games. I think Willie needs a few weeks as well. Why risk injury by starting off on full tilt?

His Reebok ads imply he's keeping in shape.
Haha.

 

[Liminality]

Feel like posting this again for some reason.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

if we don't need him then trade him , why bother wasting time never mind 6 plus million in cap space on aplayer so easily replaceable

He's better trade bait with a cheap long term contract !

 

[56 Years No Cup]

if we don't need him then trade him , why bother wasting time never mind 6 plus million in cap space on aplayer so easily replaceable

Now yer makin' sense!

 

[kindalaidback]

the leafs dont need william nylander? i wonder why they tryna sign him to a long-term contract then.