Willy Ny contract thread part Se7en

[Skin Tape Session]

Will the Toronto media turn on Dubas or Nylander if this drags into the season?

Willie for sure. Dubas snagged JT. Now if dubas cant get AM34 and marner done in time for next year this will be part of the narrative of dubas getting shit on next year.

 

[hotpaws]

Isn't your last point not rhetorical in nature, as don't all GMs enter into contracts talks with that same objective implied ?

What is the pressure point on Dubas to take him off that, or is there one?

I'm interested in finding out if "Take it, or leave it, or sit out as long as you want" is a position the organization is willing to take to set precedence.

of course all GM's would like to sign a player for as little as possible but they also want a happy locker room and they still have to offer fair contracts (this is the debate) to accomplish that

 

[4thline]

maybe i have learned something

but it has nothing to do with my opinion other than i find it strange that his contract would slide just because he was born a little later but is still 20 when he starts playing pro

Oh it's strange, they get shafted so that the teams still get 5 years of slide+ELC control for all NA first time eligible players. But strangeness/fairness aside it's the way it is, Capfriendly is right and Dermott has this year and one more on his ELC

 

[Canada4Gold]

maybe i have learned something

but it has nothing to do with my opinion other than i find it strange that his contract would slide just because he was born a little later but is still 20 when he starts playing pro

I would guess the reason is to line said players up to be off their ELC with the rest of their draft class. Dermott/Nielsen/Timashov being late birthdays mean they can play in the AHL in their draft +2 while someone like Bracco couldn't. The possibility for the draft +2 year to slide means you get 5 full years before they come off their ELC regardless if they're a early or late birthday unless they play 10 NHL games before their draft +2 season is over. That would be my best guess.

 

[81Leafs50]

John Tavares Could Save Nearly $12 Million In Taxes On His New Contract

COULD is the key word there. There are no guarantees. Tax laws get changed. Specially rules on travel and working abroad. I know from experience.

PLUS his money is all bonus so that its lockout protected.

 

[Canada4Gold]

5 yrs isn't a short term and he doesn't need to go beyond that term to get into the 6's

Larkin just signed for 6.1 x 5 with 1 60pt season with much better usage and it's not Willies fault he isn't given the same opportunity

it seems like people aren't interested in coming to a fair compromise and just want to screw Willie for as long as possible for some reason

It's not short term, but it is entirely RFA years unlike Larkin who ate up 1 UFA year in his contract. So while it's not short term the cap hit on a 5 year term wouldn't be as high as you would think because it has no UFA years to raise the cap hit. For that same reason I doubt the Leafs would want to take him right to UFA and I doubt Nylander would want a "long term" contract without the normal high salary benefits of a long term contract due to no UFA years.

Teams rarely sign their top talent to contracts that make them UFA as soon as possible.

 

[hotpaws]

If you've seen my earlier posts you'd know that I don't begrudge Nylander the holdout even if I understand the factors of RFA vs. UFA and where his contract should "fairly" end up for what he's shown. "Fair market value"
currently sits at give or take (IMO) using Ehlers and Kucherov as direct comparables, and Drouin as needing a premium for being a better player
5.2x3 (15.6)
5.4x4 (15.6+6= 21.6)
5.6x5 (21.6+6.4= 28) (I wouldn't offer if I was Dubas, expires to UFA at bad time)
6x6 (28+8=36) (I Wouldn't offer if I was Dubas, ditto)
6.3x7 (36+8.1=44.1) (I wouldn't accept if I was Nylander)
6.8x8 (44.1+10.3=54.4) (I wouldn't accept if I was Nylander)

I'm not advocated that it's necessarily the income maximizing play for Nylander, but it's a lot of money, and a lot of security, and when you look at the valuations on the UFA year's I wouldn't call it being "bent over"

There's a difference between dispassionately viewed "fair market value" based on current factors and likely future worth. It's to the teams advantage to lock him in based on the former for as long as possible, it's to the Nylander's benefit to either A. get paid long term based on the latter, or B. keep his pay elastic in the short term so that it lines up FMV and future come into line.

You're advocating that the Leafs cave for no other reason than "we can afford to in the shortterm" without factoring in the long term implications.

i'm not advocating they cave , i'm merely saying if the goal is to keep his cap hit as low as possible while we're in a short term cap crunch then they should be pushing for a bridge or 5/6yr term which will give us more cap space than trying to lock him up until 30 which will obviously then lead him to demand a much larger salary based on him holding out

if i'm in his position i'd accept a deal in low 6's x 5 yrs and wouldn't sign for 8 unless it was mid 7's since it will severely weaken my ability to cash in as a 30 yr old ufa as opposed to being 27

 

[Confucius]

Maybe Willie sits out this year and we can try to negotiate all 3 next year.

Unless Dubas can convince Marner and Mathews to negotiate a contract now.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Maybe Willie sits out this year and we can try to negotiate all 3 next year.

Unless Dubas can convince Marner and Mathews to negotiate a contract now.

How in any way, shape or form is this a good idea? We're trying to win a cup.

 

[Confucius]

How in any way, shape or form is this a good idea? We're trying to win a cup.

It is what it is. I’d rather be safe in signing the other 2 than overpaying Willie and making it all or nothing this year.

 

[Mess]

of course all GM's would like to sign a player for as little as possible but they also want a happy locker room and they still have to offer fair contracts (this is the debate) to accomplish that

Nylander becoming a distraction on the Leafs if this goes into regular season will impact both on ice and locker room.

So far Dubas is batting 0 for 3 on contracts for the kids.

If Willy wants $8 mil range and Dubas is offering $6.5 then that seems like too big a gap based on each side of "fair contract" debate that seems like this might stretch out for some time still.

Nylander is actually the easiest of the 3 to get signed as both Matthews and Marner next summer will be in much stronger negotiating positions and perhaps even tougher contract talks.

 

[kb]

8 years is what I was talking about

Not many are advocating that even. A few posters out of 7 - 40 something page threads. I think most of us are all in the same ballpark for the most part, and I know we are all hoping it is as low of a cap hit as possible.

 

[kk87]

Maybe Willie sits out this year and we can try to negotiate all 3 next year.

Unless Dubas can convince Marner and Mathews to negotiate a contract now.

This is a painfully bad idea for every party involved

 

[4thline]

i'm not advocating they cave , i'm merely saying if the goal is to keep his cap hit as low as possible while we're in a short term cap crunch then they should be pushing for a bridge or 5/6yr term which will give us more cap space than trying to lock him up until 30 which will obviously then lead him to demand a much larger salary based on him holding out

if i'm in his position i'd accept a deal in low 6's x 5 yrs and wouldn't sign for 8 unless it was mid 7's since it will severely weaken my ability to cash in as a 30 yr old ufa as opposed to being 27

Of course he would, that's the team caving. For his av to be in the 6's the team needs to get UFA years in return.

 

[Notsince67]

COULD is the key word there. There are no guarantees. Tax laws get changed. Specially rules on travel and working abroad. I know from experience.

PLUS his money is all bonus so that its lockout protected.

So he won't because??????????

 

[Notsince67]

Not many are advocating that even. A few posters out of 7 - 40 something page threads. I think most of us are all in the same ballpark for the most part, and I know we are all hoping it is as low of a cap hit as possible.

To be clear, a 7MM x8 contract means that Willy is valued at Ehlers + 1 year at $14MM? You can see why I'm skeptical no?

 

[kb]

Nylander becoming a distraction on the Leafs if this goes into regular season will impact both on ice and locker room.

So far Dubas is batting 0 for 3 on contracts for the kids.

If Willy wants $8 mil range and Dubas is offering $6.5 then that seems like too big a gap based on each side of "fair contract" debate that seems like this might stretch out for some time still.

Nylander is actually the easiest of the 3 to get signed as both Matthews and Marner next summer will be in much stronger negotiating positions and perhaps even tougher contract talks.

This entire post is dead wrong. I didn't think that was possible. AM and MM have no impetus to sign without a huge overpay because it's better to bet on themselves - Matthews now being healthy, and Marner being on Tavares' wing. And he's holding firm on his price Nylander, which is the correct move.

There's only one 0 for 3 here....

 

[BrannigansLaw]

I thought some of you might enjoy this given the climate in here.

 

[Canada4Gold]

To be clear, a 7MM x8 contract means that Willy is valued at Ehlers + 1 year at $14MM? You can see why I'm skeptical no?

Especially since that extra year would be RFA. A Nylander 8 year deal would be 5 RFA/3 UFA, Ehlers deal is 4 RFA/3 UFA. Man the Jets got a steal of a deal for Ehlers. So jealous.

 

[hotpaws]

Of course he would, that's the team caving. For his av to be in the 6's the team needs to get UFA years in return.

so what is the team trying to do , save cap space or make it seem like they won ?

Larkin is the same age as Willie , is less proven even though he's played 3 full seasons and performed no better even though he was given a greater opportunity so even though you say he includes one ufa yr in his deal they both would become ufa's at the same age and Willie being more proven and performing better with less opportunity should balance the 1 ufa year he doesn't include .

tbh i've just had enough , either make a deal or trade him because this is going to lead to bad blood on one or both sides and i'm not blaming either side , i just understand that sometimes when you have to work with a hard cap tough decisions have to be made and this is one of them

 

[KPower]

so what is the team trying to do , save cap space or make it seem like they won ?

Larkin is the same age as Willie , is less proven even though he's played 3 full seasons and performed no better even though he was given a greater opportunity so even though you say he includes one ufa yr in his deal they both would become ufa's at the same age and Willie being more proven and performing better with less opportunity should balance the 1 ufa year he doesn't include .

tbh i've just had enough , either make a deal or trade him because this is going to lead to bad blood on one or both sides and i'm not blaming either side , i just understand that sometimes when you have to work with a hard cap tough decisions have to be made and this is one of them

It shouldn’t be a tough decision.... everybody knows his market value.

 

[Notsince67]

Especially since that extra year would be RFA. A Nylander 8 year deal would be 5 RFA/3 UFA, Ehlers deal is 4 RFA/3 UFA. Man the Jets got a steal of a deal for Ehlers. So jealous.

Ehlers must be a scrub

 

[hotpaws]

This entire post is dead wrong. I didn't think that was possible. AM and MM have no impetus to sign without a huge overpay because it's better to bet on themselves - Matthews now being healthy, and Marner being on Tavares' wing. And he's holding firm on his price Nylander, which is the correct move.

There's only one 0 for 3 here....

the thing is if you want to get a team friendly deal then you overpay now with the belief the player will our perform his contract , this is how we signed both Kadri/Rielly to deals that look great right now , Z not so much but we'll see at the end of this year

it would have been tough to offer these deals without impacting Nylanders negotiations in a negative way but

AM 8 x 11.5m
MM 8 x 8m

might/will look like steals this time next year or the year after

 

[Orfieus]

 

[Tavares to Marner]

if he ends up signing for 8 years I'll buy a jersey