Rumor: Will the Leafs pull the trigger on Alex Pietrangelo this off-season?

[Dekes For Days]

Seems weird that Pietrangelo would be ok with his buddy talking about this on the radio...

It's not like he's really leaking anything significant or unknown from other sources.

 

[seanlinden]

No, that is information that is not known at time of signing. Edmonton and Buffalo did not know the cap was going to increase 4.5m the next year, and there is no reason for them to assume that it would. Even if we want to assume they factored in moderate cap increases, which there is no evidence of, that is countered out by the fact that Matthews was signed under an official 83m projection.

Signing early is a trade-off. The player signs based on a cap that is likely lower, but they get early financial security despite proving their quality of play over a smaller sample.

Based on their pre-signing levels, Matthews would be around 12.25m probably. Potentially more depending on how you value goals/primary points. McDavid was a better point producer. Matthews was a better primary point and goal producer.

That's just the reality of a rising cap. As already explained, this will be made up when McDavid's 3rd contract is signed. Matthews would theoretically only have a higher cap hit in 2 years of his career.

The cap increased 0.1m between 08/09 and 09/10. The cap also stagnated between 2011-2014 during the CBA changes. The cap very rarely went up by 4.5m, and there was no reason to believe it would jump that much in the following season.

Then stop speaking like you do. The 3rd contracts have nothing to do with their worth on the 2nd.

They don't stop being players after 7 years. As already explained, Matthews will sign 2 years earlier, which will theoretically increase his cost over McDavid temporarily, but it also means we will sign him under a lower cap than McDavid. Which means that when McDavid's contract comes due, he will make more in cap hit than the actual difference between the two at time of signing for the next 6 years after that.

I'm not sure there's much point in continuing to respond point-by-point when you accuse player agents of not assuming things that happen every year (cap increasing or young players improving) are going to happen.

You further seem to think that the Oilers & Sabres, figured "oh ya, that McDavid kid in his only full season put up 30 goals and 100 points, that's probably all he'll get from him"... or that Eichel kid, he's realistically just under a point-per-game player.

These guys were in their 2nd year in the league... the cap was assumed to go up -- something known to both GM and player. Furthermore, performance was expected to go up, again, known by both GM and player. Yes, there is a risk-reward element to signing early, but that is considered by both sides when they do it. When you're signing 21 year old players to anything more than a bridge deal, what you've done so far has very little bearing on the contract -- it's all about what people think you can do.

Here's the very simple reality.... over the 5 years of Matthews contract, McDavid "earns" 7.7% more, and Eichel earns 14% less. That's basically about right for the player that Matthews is relative to those guys.

The fact that his contract ends 2 years earlier is completely inexcusable -- especially when those can be reasonably expect to be the better than any of the years he will be under his existing contract.

And yes, when you sign a long term deal 5+ years on your 2nd contract, you're giving up some of the most valuable years of your career -- the UFA years -- where a team can sign you to whatever they want without giving up a single asset -- also generally the prime age for most players. Giving up those UFA years is how we see 21 year old players getting $10m+ contracts. Eichel & McDavid gave up 4 of them to get their deals. Matthews gave up 1!

Respectfully, the approach you take to this is the exact problem with how Kyle Dubas approaches these things... looking at excel sheets, cap hit % based on when the contract was signed, etc.... not actually questioning -- are the metrics I'm using actually appropriate? Is the contract going to reflect what I'm going to get on the ice from this guy?

If the approach results in anything other than a $11.5m-ish x 7 year deal, or alternative lengths with appropriate adjustments... then the approach is simply wrong. Let's say you value the contract in a very simple fashion as follows: 8 - 8.75 - 9.5 - 10.25 - 14 - 14.75- 15.5

$750k more per year as an to reflect an expected rising cap and improvement in play, a jump of $3.75m when he becomes unencumbered. The structure above is an $11.53m deal. Even if you assume that at 28, he's declining at the same rate that the cap increases in that year and leave it flat at $15.5m, an 8 year deal works out to $12m even. A 6 year deal should be at $10.9. A 5 year deal should be at $10.1.

 

[Gabriel426]

Seems weird that Pietrangelo would be ok with his buddy talking about this on the radio.... seems like a negotiation ploy to me.

To me, it is giving me more Stamkos vibe than JT vibe.

 

[Antropovsky]

It's not like he's really leaking anything significant or unknown from other sources.

.... yes he is? He said pietrangelo has told him he is thinking about Toronto. Not i heard a rumor like other sources have. Its straight from the horses mouth.

 

[Dekes For Days]

.... yes he is? He said pietrangelo has told him he is thinking about Toronto. Not i heard a rumor like other sources have. Its straight from the horses mouth.

I mean, technically it's not straight from the horse's mouth. And "thinking about Toronto" doesn't really mean much. I get what you mean, but it's basically just confirming something we all already knew and would have suspected anyway. I don't know why Pietrangelo would have an issue with that.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

I'm not sure there's much point in continuing to respond point-by-point when you accuse player agents of not assuming things that happen every year (cap increasing or young players improving) are going to happen.

You further seem to think that the Oilers & Sabres, figured "oh ya, that McDavid kid in his only full season put up 30 goals and 100 points, that's probably all he'll get from him"... or that Eichel kid, he's realistically just under a point-per-game player.

These guys were in their 2nd year in the league... the cap was assumed to go up -- something known to both GM and player. Furthermore, performance was expected to go up, again, known by both GM and player. Yes, there is a risk-reward element to signing early, but that is considered by both sides when they do it. When you're signing 21 year old players to anything more than a bridge deal, what you've done so far has very little bearing on the contract -- it's all about what people think you can do.

Here's the very simple reality.... over the 5 years of Matthews contract, McDavid "earns" 7.7% more, and Eichel earns 14% less. That's basically about right for the player that Matthews is relative to those guys.

The fact that his contract ends 2 years earlier is completely inexcusable -- especially when those can be reasonably expect to be the better than any of the years he will be under his existing contract.

And yes, when you sign a long term deal 5+ years on your 2nd contract, you're giving up some of the most valuable years of your career -- the UFA years -- where a team can sign you to whatever they want without giving up a single asset -- also generally the prime age for most players. Giving up those UFA years is how we see 21 year old players getting $10m+ contracts. Eichel & McDavid gave up 4 of them to get their deals. Matthews gave up 1!

Respectfully, the approach you take to this is the exact problem with how Kyle Dubas approaches these things... looking at excel sheets, cap hit % based on when the contract was signed, etc.... not actually questioning -- are the metrics I'm using actually appropriate? Is the contract going to reflect what I'm going to get on the ice from this guy?

If the approach results in anything other than a $11.5m-ish x 7 year deal, or alternative lengths with appropriate adjustments... then the approach is simply wrong. Let's say you value the contract in a very simple fashion as follows: 8 - 8.75 - 9.5 - 10.25 - 14 - 14.75- 15.5

$750k more per year as an to reflect an expected rising cap and improvement in play, a jump of $3.75m when he becomes unencumbered. The structure above is an $11.53m deal. Even if you assume that at 28, he's declining at the same rate that the cap increases in that year and leave it flat at $15.5m, an 8 year deal works out to $12m even. A 6 year deal should be at $10.9. A 5 year deal should be at $10.1.

It's tough to hold the Matthews' contract against Dubas.

What was he going to do? Tell Matthews to sit? There are certain players where that tactic just doesn't work because they're too good.

Just an example, if McDavid wanted 14M from the Oilers, he was getting 14M cause someone else was easily going to do it and sacrifice 4 picks. There were multiple rumours stating his agent got him 13.25M x 8, but he pushed for a "small" pay cut to help the Oilers. Sometimes, it's the player and his agent that need to be reasonable.

On the other hand, I do believe they should have told Marner to sit. He's not that caliber of a player nor was he ever getting the same deal through an offer sheet.

 

[Bluelines]

It's tough to hold the Matthews' contract against Dubas.

What was he going to do? Tell Matthews to sit? There are certain players where that tactic just doesn't work because they're too good.

Just an example, if McDavid wanted 14M from the Oilers, he was getting 14M cause someone else was easily going to do it and sacrifice 4 picks. There were multiple rumours stating his agent got him 13.25M x 8, but he pushed for a "small" pay cut to help the Oilers. Sometimes, it's the player and his agent that need to be reasonable.

On the other hand, I do believe they should have told Marner to sit. He's not that caliber of a player nor was he ever getting the same deal through an offer sheet.

Holding Matthews, Marner, JT, Nylander to a dollar value that allows you to build a sold team is called doing your job. There is no rule that says you have to keep every player you draft, or you have to give every player whatever they want in contract negotiations. If a player puts getting paid the most or near the most in the league for his position and that puts you as a GM in a position where you cant build a strong balanced team, then you as a GM have to decide which trade offer you are going to take for him.

Nylander was a gift horse for Dubas and he messed it up. Your negotiating position is this, this is as high as I'm willing to go, take it or expect a trade. If Nylander was traded, it would have sent a shot across the bow of every player that was going to negotiate with Dubas. Kap would have not got 3 mil and change, AJ would have not got 3 mil and change, Marner would be below 10 mil, so on and so on and so on, eventually you save enough where you don't have to trade Kadri, you don't have to let Barrie walk, you have room to comfortably negotiate with Hyman.

If you want to be a Leaf this is my price, if you want to be the richest at your position, nice meeting you, have a nice career in Arizona or where ever. It does not make the player a bad person that they want to get paid and it does not make the GM a bad person he wants to stay with in a responsible cap number.

Hey right now I'm negotiating on Kijiji for something that is basically brand new, new it cost 3000, he was asking 2100, I offered 600 to start, he came back at the lowest he will go is 1500, I came back the highest I will go is 1000, I really want what he is selling but I know he will eventually cave because he wants to sell it more than I want to buy it. Same concept for Dubas, he wanted to buy it more than the player wanted to sell their services to Toronto, so he was always negotiating from behind and now he's dropped his pants for the last 7 signings, he has no leverage in any future signings. You have to know your opponent in any negotiation and you have to be willing to be patient..

 

[Notsince67]

marner signed a combo deal ... he is ufa at end.

he isn't worth it period.

Uh......you know you pay more for ufa years right? This doesnt make sense. The basis of contracts are comparables and Marner ELC performance is statistically better due to the upward trend. In fact, his first rfa year bears it out with better stats so far to Kane. Like I said...at most he WAS overpaid by around .9mm. This is primarily due to the leafs not leveraging their rfa control. To say he is not worth it is just doubling down on wrong. Panarin signed for a lot more as a ufa without having cracked 90 points at an older age. The leafs overpaid for an asset that they had partial control but it doesnt mean his market value is 2 to 3 million less.

 

[613Leafer]

I'm not sure there's much point in continuing to respond point-by-point when you accuse player agents of not assuming things that happen every year (cap increasing or young players improving) are going to happen.

Some people will twist things as much as possible to try and justify these contracts.

The caphit% based on date of signature rather than first year of the contract is a big one. Like you said, the baseline assumption is the cap goes up every year by ~2-3M or so. In 2006, the cap was 39M, and last year it was 81.5M. Sophisticated GMs and player agents making 6-7 figure salaries are absolutely going to factor this into contract negotiations, and pretending they don't and just saying "capfriendly.com says caphit % is X so that's all there is to it!" is a very lazy argument, especially when in the same breath those same people are the ones saying "these contracts will look great in a couple years as the cap goes up!".

Ignoring term on a contract is another huge one.. Ignoring scoring differences between years is a big one. For example, Marner's 94 points last season were only good for 11th in league scoring. Gaudreau's 78 points in 2015-2016 on the other hand was good for 8th in league scoring that year. So just summing point totals, looking at points per game, looking at pts/60, etc, isn't a good comparison between certain years. Gaudreau's 2015-2016 season was better than Marner's 2018-2019 season, despite Gaudreau having 16 fewer points.

At the end of the day, for Matthews, look at the 8 year contracts Eichel/McDavid/Kucherov got and if you want to go back further, look at for example the 5 year contract Stamkos got, a guy who won a Rocket Richard during his ELC and finished 5th in league scoring two years in a row during his ELC (his contract pro-rated to today would have been 9.5M). I think people in hindsight downplay Stamkos a lot, because coming off his ELC, but while he wasn't as well rounded as Matthews, his offence was way more proven. Matthews by comparison, even if you pro-rate his stats to try to ignore his injuries, wouldn't have finished top 10 in scoring in any of his first three seasons (let alone top 5 twice).

For Marner, he was more comparable to guys like Kane, Hall, Tarasenko, Aho, etc. You can make minor adjustments all you want for age, scoring rates in different seasons, linemates, injuries, etc, but after all those adjustments, on a 6 year deal he for sure should have been under 9.5M.

 

[Notsince67]

It's tough to hold the Matthews' contract against Dubas.

What was he going to do? Tell Matthews to sit? There are certain players where that tactic just doesn't work because they're too good.

Just an example, if McDavid wanted 14M from the Oilers, he was getting 14M cause someone else was easily going to do it and sacrifice 4 picks. There were multiple rumours stating his agent got him 13.25M x 8, but he pushed for a "small" pay cut to help the Oilers. Sometimes, it's the player and his agent that need to be reasonable.

On the other hand, I do believe they should have told Marner to sit. He's not that caliber of a player nor was he ever getting the same deal through an offer sheet.

How do you know? There were 2 offersheets presented to marner as reported by Ferris to which he said Dubas was directly aware of 1. This was never refuted by Dubas.

 

[seanlinden]

It's tough to hold the Matthews' contract against Dubas.

What was he going to do? Tell Matthews to sit? There are certain players where that tactic just doesn't work because they're too good.

Just an example, if McDavid wanted 14M from the Oilers, he was getting 14M cause someone else was easily going to do it and sacrifice 4 picks. There were multiple rumours stating his agent got him 13.25M x 8, but he pushed for a "small" pay cut to help the Oilers. Sometimes, it's the player and his agent that need to be reasonable.

On the other hand, I do believe they should have told Marner to sit. He's not that caliber of a player nor was he ever getting the same deal through an offer sheet.

I think it's in the approach... Dubas seems to take an approach of "this is what I can do" -- not "this is what I should / need to do in order to build a competitive team". He needed to get Matthews to buy into the concept that if you're going to get a AAV that puts you directly in line with McDavid & Eichel, you either need to be matching years (7 year deal), or you can go matching term (8 years), with an inflationary factor because that 8th year will be the most valuable, where McDavid and Eichel likely see big raises.

He's created a culture where none of his stars are expected to act in the best interest of winning.

 

[Legion34]

Seems weird that Pietrangelo would be ok with his buddy talking about this on the radio.... seems like a negotiation ploy to me.

It clearly is both. Recall that in June Petro himself actually came on Carlos radio show and gave like a 3 minute answer on how he grew up loving the leafs and how his family all want him to sign here and how JT is living out the dream they had as kids.

He is obviously ok with it and is negotiating in the media.

 

[egd27]

Dubas, he wanted to buy it more than the player wanted to sell their services to Toronto, so he was always negotiating from behind and now he's dropped his pants for the last 7 signings, he has no leverage in any future signings.

"we can and we will"

Saying it in the first place = inexperience
Believing he had to honor it = inexperience

 

[Mess]

"we can and we will"

Saying it in the first place = inexperience
Believing he had to honor it = inexperience

There is a big difference between fitting player contracts under a hard cap ceiling, and icing a competitive hockey team on the ice as a result.

Signing and fitting Pietrangelo without breaking that above commitment would equal 5 players using about $50 mil cap of a $81.5 mil cap, leaving ~$30 mil (after Kessel retained $1.2 mil) to fill out the roster needing + 9F & 6D and 2G with a 22 man roster.

 

[egd27]

There is a big difference between fitting player contracts under a hard cap ceiling, and icing a competitive hockey team on the ice as a result.

Signing and fitting Pietrangelo without breaking that above commitment would equal 5 players using about $50 mil cap of a $81.5 mil cap, leaving ~$30 mil (after Kessel retained $1.2 mil) to fill out the roster needing + 9F & 6D and 2G with a 22 man roster.

I don't have a lot of faith in Kid Kyle, but even I can't believe he would be that reckless.

 

[kb]

I can't wait to see what is going to happen once the cup is handed out tonight. Usually there is an unspoken moratorium on big trade during the Cup finals so that all the attention remains on the games.

 

[Legion34]

.... yes he is? He said pietrangelo has told him he is thinking about Toronto. Not i heard a rumor like other sources have. Its straight from the horses mouth.

again. Petro HIMSELF came on tsn and said it.

he also talked to lebrun. Dreger. Rutherford and after direct conversations with him all reported he is interested in Toronto.

 

[Legion34]

There is a big difference between fitting player contracts under a hard cap ceiling, and icing a competitive hockey team on the ice as a result.

Signing and fitting Pietrangelo without breaking that above commitment would equal 5 players using about $50 mil cap of a $81.5 mil cap, leaving ~$30 mil (after Kessel retained $1.2 mil) to fill out the roster needing + 9F & 6D and 2G with a 22 man roster.

the leafs won’t use a 22 man roster. They openly said it last year and only did so because of injuries they were allowed to use all the LTIR space

 

[Mess]

I don't have a lot of faith in Kid Kyle, but even I can't believe he would be that reckless.

Dubas is caught between a rock and hard place between his own public stance on proving he can win with 1/2 your cap invested on 4F, and also desperately needing a major upgrade on D to save his own job so adding AP addresses a vital need on defense.

The plan to add Pietrangelo on this board seems to be trade Kapanen $3.2 mil (done), Kerfoot $3.5 mil , Johnsson $3.4 mil for futures and use those 3 combined forwards cap recapture to afford to sign AP. We don't yet know if this our GM's strategy as well, but we do know he has shopped/listened to offers on AJ and Kerfoot, because Dubas went public saying he was getting good offers for them and they have value.

We haven't seen any appetite to trade Marner/Nylander and "We can and we will" is almost a defiance position to suggest that is not on the table as a viable option to fit AP.

 

[4thline]

the leafs won’t use a 22 man roster. They openly said it last year and only did so because of injuries they were allowed to use all the LTIR space

I fully expect 21, with the the extra being a dman, or the off chance we go after Pysyk who's shown that he can play both. Tampa is a win a away from the cup playing with 11 forwards for the majority of the playoffs, we could go 1 regular season game before using the emergency recall rule on the likes of Brooks/Agostino/Petan/ new UFA

 

[Mess]

the leafs won’t use a 22 man roster. They openly said it last year and only did so because of injuries they were allowed to use all the LTIR space

Using the minimum 20 forwards dressed for any game for home games might work with the farm team up the road and 15 minutes away, but you can't go on a road trip (particularly in a Covid world) with no spare roster players and something happens on game day.

Also LTIR is missing a mandatory 10 games or more and can be replaced, while players injured on short term IR needing replacing needs cap space to accommodate both the injured player and the replacement and this is where 1 spare forward and 1 spare dman fitting into your hard cap comes into play.

If signing AP doesn't even allow you to carry any spare players likely making near league minimum, it only amplifies how precarious Leafs cap situation really is and would be.

 

[A1LeafNation]

It doesn't have to be too complex here, just get a cheap goalie and 3rd line center and the rest will be fine:

Anderson for a 1st
Kerfoot for a 2nd; then flip the 2nd for Georgiev
Call-ups: Liljegren Barabanov Robertson

Hyman	2.25	Matthews	11.634	Marner	10.893
Mikheyev	1.25	Tavares	11	Nylander	6.963
Johnsson	3.4	UFA	0.9	Korshkov	0.925
Martin	0.95	Engvall	1.25	Perry	0.9
		Hallander	0.778
	Rielly	5	Pietrangelo	8.5
	Muzzin	5.65	Holl	2
	Sandin	0.894	Dermott	1
		Lehtonen	0.925
		Georgiev	1.5
		Campbell	1.65
		Kessel	1.2
		Salary Cap	81.5
		Total Cap	81.412
		Cap Space	0.088

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[The CyNick]

That was pure speculation 6 months after the fact that has never been supported by anything, and is inconsistent with everything else we know about the negotiation. The price for Marner went up because he went on to put up one of the best pre-signing seasons in the entire cap era.

It was reported by a credible source. You can choose to not believe it because it doesn't fit your narrative, but I trust the source. That was the offer from the Marner camp at the time. Dubas thought he could do better, he was sadly mistaken.

 

[Bluelines]

Dubas is caught between a rock and hard place between his own public stance on proving he can win with 1/2 your cap invested on 4F, and also desperately needing a major upgrade on D to save his own job so adding AP addresses a vital need on defense.

The plan to add Pietrangelo on this board seems to be trade Kapanen $3.2 mil (done), Kerfoot $3.5 mil , Johnsson $3.4 mil for futures and use those 3 combined forwards cap recapture to afford to sign AP. We don't yet know if this our GM's strategy as well, but we do know he has shopped/listened to offers on AJ and Kerfoot, because Dubas went public saying he was getting good offers for them and they have value.

We haven't seen any appetite to trade Marner/Nylander and "We can and we will" is almost a defiance position to suggest that is not on the table as a viable option to fit AP.

No only did Dubas find that hard place all by himself, he took the heaviest rock he could find and put it on himself all by himself. This stupidity of blasting 50%-60% of your cap on 5 to 6 players is his choice and his choice alone.

 

[Bluelines]

It doesn't have to be too complex here, just get a cheap goalie and 3rd line center and the rest will be fine:

Anderson for a 1st
Kerfoot for a 2nd; then flip the 2nd for Georgiev
Call-ups: Liljegren Barabanov Robertson

Hyman	2.25	Matthews	11.634	Marner	10.893
Mikheyev	1.25	Tavares	11	Nylander	6.963
Johnsson	3.4	UFA	0.9	Korshkov	0.925
Martin	0.95	Engvall	1.25	Perry	0.9
		Hallander	0.778
	Rielly	5	Pietrangelo	8.5
	Muzzin	5.65	Holl	2
	Sandin	0.894	Dermott	1
		Lehtonen	0.925
		Georgiev	1.5
		Campbell	1.65
		Kessel	1.2
		Salary Cap	81.5
		Total Cap	81.412
		Cap Space	0.088

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

EA Sports NHL 2020 is usually pretty easy. What do we trade for NYR next 1st stringer? Pierre Engvall right? This GM stuff is so easy...