Speculation: Will the Canucks make the 19/20 playoffs? (20.03.08)

[Addison Rae]

That's a pretty big . . . well, you get the idea

Yeah obviously I’m as anti management as anyone else, but in hindsight it’s hard to argue with moving a mid first for a elite first liner.

 

[I am toxic]

Yeah obviously I’m as anti management as anyone else, but in hindsight it’s hard to argue with moving a mid first for a elite first liner.

Well, hold on. Without Miller, we are getting a lottery pick, not a mid first.

And for a team that has been the second worst team in the NHL for almost half a decade, it's a horrific move.

And by horrific, I mean PoM was horrified by the trade.

 

[VanJack]

Yeah obviously I’m as anti management as anyone else, but in hindsight it’s hard to argue with moving a mid first for a elite first liner.

Not to mention that the Lightning have already moved the Canucks first rounder to the Devils at the trade deadline as part of the Blake Coleman deal. So they may not have been that bullish on the 2020 draft either.

It's never smart for a lottery team to trade its first rounder for an established player, no matter how good you think he could be. But there are those rare occasions where it works.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

We literally gave up a 1st round pick, in addition to a 3rd round pick. So we could move from being a bubble team to being a bubble team.

Great performance by Miller.

Terrible trade.

The thing is, you hope that first round pick develops into a player even remotely as talented as Miller has been. The odds of that are staggeringly low. Not only do most players drafted never amount to anything noteworthy, we now have to beat the odds just to even draft high to begin with.

Basing that trade on "now we won't suck enough" is the same logic as banking we'll suck at the right time and beat all those odds to get that perfect player. It's a what if no matter how you slice it.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

The thing is, you hope that first round pick develops into a player even remotely as talented as Miller has been. The odds of that are staggeringly low. Not only do most players drafted never amount to anything noteworthy, we now have to beat the odds just to even draft high to begin with.

Basing that trade on "now we won't suck enough" is the same logic as banking we'll suck at the right time and beat all those odds to get that perfect player. It's a what if no matter how you slice it.

Stop making so much sense...

 

[I am toxic]

The thing is, you hope that first round pick develops into a player even remotely as talented as Miller has been. The odds of that are staggeringly low. Not only do most players drafted never amount to anything noteworthy, we now have to beat the odds just to even draft high to begin with.

Basing that trade on "now we won't suck enough" is the same logic as banking we'll suck at the right time and beat all those odds to get that perfect player. It's a what if no matter how you slice it.

We need to rebuild. Our D outside of Hughes is aging out. Marky is not getting younger.

Instead, we made a compete now move that cost us a 1st and a 3rd, and all it did was move us from being a bubble team to being a bubble team.

Miller is playing fantastic. But in 5 years when our next window could open, Miller won't be moving us from a bubble team to a Cup contender - but that pick might have.

And if Miller's performance moves this team from getting a top5 pick this year and next to getting mid-first, we are missing out on not just one additional Tkachuk/Petey/Hughes that we could have drafted but two.

So if the Canucks contend for the Cup during Miller's current contract, I will say massive win. None bigger. The odds were beaten and I was not right.

If the Canucks are a bubble team for this and the next three seasons, I will say wow, Miller played fabulous (at least in his first season here) but it was a massive failure.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

We need to rebuild. Our D outside of Hughes is aging out. Marky is not getting younger.

Instead, we made a compete now move that cost us a 1st and a 3rd, and all it did was move us from being a bubble team to being a bubble team.

Miller is playing fantastic. But in 5 years when our next window could open, Miller won't be moving us from a bubble team to a Cup contender - but that pick might have.

And if Miller's performance moves this team from getting a top5 pick this year and next to getting mid-first, we are missing out on not just one additional Tkachuk/Petey/Hughes that we could have drafted but two.

So if the Canucks contend for the Cup during Miller's current contract, I will say massive win. None bigger. The odds were beaten and I was not right.

If the Canucks are a bubble team for this and the next three seasons, I will say wow, Miller played fabulous (at least in his first season here) but it was a massive failure.

Before the Miller trade, and the Myers signing we were a lottery team..not a bubble team..Those off season moves made us a bubble team (which was precisely why the moves were made).

The toughest part is to transition from a lottery team to a bubble team,..not from a bubble team to a contender..The Sharks always got in the playoffs, some years their team was more 'bubble team' than contender..but they always got in...A contender is fleeting, look at the Jets,and the Leafs..two bubble teams.

So in 5 years..that 1st round pick ,and the 3rd could be the difference that makes us a 'contender'....That's a big 'what if'.....Waiting for that extra big draft pick to save your ass, is precisely what the Oilers did for years....In 5 years from now, most of this current roster wont even be here..

 

[I am toxic]

Before the Miller trade, and the Myers signing we were a lottery team..not a bubble team..Those off season moves made us a bubble team (which was precisely why the moves were made).

The toughest part is to transition from a lottery team to a bubble team,..not from a bubble team to a contender..The Sharks always got in the playoffs, some years their team was more 'bubble team' than contender..but they always got in...A contender is fleeting, look at the Jets,and the Leafs..two bubble teams.

So in 5 years..that 1st round pick ,and the 3rd could be the difference that makes us a 'contender'....That's a big 'what if'.....Waiting for that extra big draft pick to save your ass, is precisely what the Oilers did for years....In 5 years from now, most of this current roster wont even be here..

I don't agree that the toughest part is to transition from a lottery team to a bubble team, any more than from a bubble team to a contender. Any improvement regardless where a team starts from requires good management that is held accountable.

And bad management can give a team a temporary bump by mortgaging the future to compete now. We here in Vancouver know what bad management looks like as well as any. Signing bottom 6 players to dollars and term, spending to the cap, trading away effectively an entire draft worth of picks - just to maybe be a bubble team. We could still end up a bottom feeder this season - this season, when we got vezina level goaltending, a norris level performance from a rookie, ppg seasons from Petey and Miller, a healthy Tanev and relatively healthy Edler.

So in 5 years, that 1st and 3rd round pick, and all the other picks that have been wasted in the past and current seasons, could very well be the difference between being a bubble team and being a contender when our next window opens.

So yeah, take one look at EDM on capfriendly, and then take a look at VAN on capfriendly, and then take a look at EDM in the standings and us in the standings, and then imagine if EDM got vezina level goaltending and VAN got edmonton level goaltending. Good god.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

I don't agree that the toughest part is to transition from a lottery team to a bubble team, any more than from a bubble team to a contender. Any improvement regardless where a team starts from requires good management that is held accountable.

And bad management can give a team a temporary bump by mortgaging the future to compete now. We here in Vancouver know what bad management looks like as well as any. Signing bottom 6 players to dollars and term, spending to the cap, trading away effectively an entire draft worth of picks - just to maybe be a bubble team. We could still end up a bottom feeder this season - this season, when we got vezina level goaltending, a norris level performance from a rookie, ppg seasons from Petey and Miller, a healthy Tanev and relatively healthy Edler.

So in 5 years, that 1st and 3rd round pick, and all the other picks that have been wasted in the past and current seasons, could very well be the difference between being a bubble team and being a contender when our next window opens.

So yeah, take one look at EDM on capfriendly, and then take a look at VAN on capfriendly, and then take a look at EDM in the standings and us in the standings, and then imagine if EDM got vezina level goaltending and VAN got edmonton level goaltending. Good god.

We would definitely be a bottom feeder if we had not have traded for Miller (or signed Myers) this season...Competing for a playoff spot at the end of the season does not make you a bottom feeder..In 5 years from now ,we dont even know who the goalie will be (half of our roster will be retired, or close to it)...

The future is not mortgaged away..Our core is fairly set, and Podkolzin will be added to that group...

Edmonton is currently 5 points ahead of us, and we have a game in hand..Does this qualify them in your mind as a success..?..After 1 playoff appearance in 13 years?...We're both bubble teams (not unlike the Stars,Leafs,Flames etc)...Not contenders or lottery teams.

EDM is getting great goaltending lately...Our goalie (and MVP) got injured unfortunately..C'est la Vie.

 

[I am toxic]

We would definitely be a bottom feeder if we had not have traded for Miller (or signed Myers) this season...Competing for a playoff spot at the end of the season does not make you a bottom feeder..In 5 years from now ,we dont even know who the goalie will be (half of our roster will be retired, or close to it)...

The future is not mortgaged away..Our core is fairly set, and Podkolzin will be added to that group...

Edmonton is currently 5 points ahead of us, and we have a game in hand..Does this qualify them in your mind as a success..?..After 1 playoff appearance in 13 years?...We're both bubble teams (not unlike the Stars,Leafs,Flames etc)...Not contenders or lottery teams.

EDM is getting great goaltending lately...Our goalie (and MVP) got injured unfortunately..C'est la Vie.

Agreed about already being a bottom feeder if Canucks had not used $6m in cap space on Myers, and trading away futures in the form of a 1st and a 3rd pick for Myers. We may still get there yet even if Tanev returns quickly.

5 years from now, Demko will be the age Markstrom is now.

Other teams have their own Podkolzins, if he is such a difference maker then all the more reason to rebuild now in order to have a window to compete for the Cup when Pods hits his stride. The opposite of what management is doing. We won't be contending in the next couple seasons with Roussel, Beagle and Eriksson on the books, while Tanev, Edler and Myers age out.

EDM sucked for 13 years because of bad management. They brought in Holland and Tippett and one can look at the results in both the standings and on capfriendly. We've already sucked for half a decade under bad management, and that same bad management is still making the same bad mistakes. Even when something goes well (Miller playing out of his mind), it turns out badly for us because management has once again chosen the wrong time to trade away futures to suck now.

 

[4Twenty]

So you can’t say the pick wouldn’t be lower without making the trade but you can say the building would be Half empty with no shot at the playoffs without it?

Interesting.

 

[4Twenty]

I also dispute that it’s harder to go from 23rd overall to 19th than it is to go from 15-19 to top 5 contender.

 

[I am toxic]

I also dispute that it’s harder to go from 23rd overall to 19th than it is to go from 15-19 to top 5 contender.

Yeah, that's just a load of crap. It's a variation on wait and see, to be followed by Hindsight is 20/20 when everyone sees it is just as difficult to go from bubble team to contender as it is to go from bottom feeder to bubble team.

 

[Bleach Clean]

The thing is, you hope that first round pick develops into a player even remotely as talented as Miller has been. The odds of that are staggeringly low. Not only do most players drafted never amount to anything noteworthy, we now have to beat the odds just to even draft high to begin with.

Basing that trade on "now we won't suck enough" is the same logic as banking we'll suck at the right time and beat all those odds to get that perfect player. It's a what if no matter how you slice it.

You can follow that logic into trading any non-top10 1st round pick. It's too simplistic a rationale and obviously open to critique.

Bar none, the draft is still the best place to procure and secure high end talent for the least amount of associated costs. By burning that avenue at nearly every turn, you are ensuring that it will be that much harder to procure and secure talent as efficiently as your competition. Which means, you will have a comparatively inefficient roster (probability).

Based upon Benning's currently built roster, this has already come to fruition.

 

[member 290103]

..Dont sweat it.

Sure thing! Cap management? Naaaaa! Expansion draft? Don’t worry!

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Sure thing! Cap management? Naaaaa! Expansion draft? Don’t worry!

It will be a bumpy ride next year..cap wise...but long term,I’m not worried.

but you know..the ‘what if’ crowd...and ‘what happens in 5 years’..lol

Step away from the ledge.

 

[Baby Pettersson]

Suspend season. Marky heals. Profit.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

We need to rebuild. Our D outside of Hughes is aging out. Marky is not getting younger.

Instead, we made a compete now move that cost us a 1st and a 3rd, and all it did was move us from being a bubble team to being a bubble team.

Miller is playing fantastic. But in 5 years when our next window could open, Miller won't be moving us from a bubble team to a Cup contender - but that pick might have.

And if Miller's performance moves this team from getting a top5 pick this year and next to getting mid-first, we are missing out on not just one additional Tkachuk/Petey/Hughes that we could have drafted but two.

So if the Canucks contend for the Cup during Miller's current contract, I will say massive win. None bigger. The odds were beaten and I was not right.

If the Canucks are a bubble team for this and the next three seasons, I will say wow, Miller played fabulous (at least in his first season here) but it was a massive failure.

This is precisely why you can't deem the trade a failure now because you're basing that on assumptions. Furthermore, basing the success or failure of trades on whether we make a cup run is, frankly, absurd. It took Washington years to even get out of the second round, let alone go on a cup run. And this is when they had absolute juggernaut teams. San Jose has been a living meme for over a decade because they always choke, and St. Louis wasn't much better until they finally won.

Whether the Miller trade works out for us will be determined how well we do in the playoffs. Even if we don't make it to the WCF in those three years. No one is going to look at Miller and say "yep, that's where we screwed up. Trading for that near PPG workhorse." At least not unless our pick turns into a superstar. That argument dies even faster if who New Jersey drafts becomes a nobody.

You can follow that logic into trading any non-top10 1st round pick. It's too simplistic a rationale and obviously open to critique.

Bar none, the draft is still the best place to procure and secure high end talent for the least amount of associated costs. By burning that avenue at nearly every turn, you are ensuring that it will be that much harder to procure and secure talent as efficiently as your competition. Which means, you will have a comparatively inefficient roster (probability).

Based upon Benning's currently built roster, this has already come to fruition.

Trading for Miller isn't burning it at every avenue. We acquired someone we hope our first one day becomes. This isn't a McCann for Gudbranson idiocy but turning a first into a legitimate talent. Yes, going through the draft is the best way. We already did that with Pettersson, Horvat, Boeser and Hughes. You can't just keep sucking over and over again praying every single pick turns into a star. Buffalo, Edmonton, Florida, Toronto and so many other teams tried that approach. Edmonton only got out of it the second time around because they happened to suck when a franchise player was available.

The issue here is Benning who, if he can't fix the mistakes he's made, shouldn't still be employed. I don't think you'll get any argument from anyone he's not been a good GM. But acquiring is the one trade he made that's actually good. If we do re-sign Toffoli, he may have another. It remains to be seen where we'll be in five years.

 

[Hit the post]

This isn't a McCann for Gudbranson idiocy

lol.

Even *THAT* trade is better than the one Jimbo gave up.

It was a high 2nd round pick and McCann for No-Good-Branson.

If we do re-sign Toffoli, he may have another. It remains to be seen where we'll be in five years.

No chance of fitting him in under the cap without sacrificing elsewhere in the lineup.

 

[Addison Rae]

If Winnipeg wins Canucks may end the season out of the playoffs as the league could get suspended tomorrow.

 

[member 290103]

It will be a bumpy ride next year..cap wise...but long term,I’m not worried.

but you know..the ‘what if’ crowd...and ‘what happens in 5 years’..lol

Step away from the ledge.

For sure! Why worry. Spend now, forget later! Plan shmlan....

 

[canuckking1]

If Winnipeg wins Canucks may end the season out of the playoffs as the league could get suspended tomorrow.

Let's go Oilers!

Rethinking my stance it's better to get that lost pick outta the way

 

[Addison Rae]

@bandwagonesque @Bonose I remember us making a wager at the start of the year based on the Canucks making the playoffs, if the league gets suspended how do you guys want to handle this?

 

[bandwagonesque]

@bandwagonesque @Bonose I remember us making a wager at the start of the year based on the Canucks making the playoffs, if the league gets suspended how do you guys want to handle this?

Thanks -- I hadn't forgotten the wager, but nor had it crossed my mind after seeing the season will likely be cancelled. I don't know. The team's right on the line and getting good players back, but they're also looking shaky. We could just cancel the bet, I suppose.

 

[I am toxic]

@bandwagonesque @Bonose I remember us making a wager at the start of the year based on the Canucks making the playoffs, if the league gets suspended how do you guys want to handle this?

Pistols at dawn

It is the gentlemanly thing to do