News Article: WIIM: Filip Zadina Deserves Better...
- Thread starter Ghost of Ethan Hunt
- Start date
Sentinel
Registered User
If it makes people feel better, Fabbri also sucks this year. We have more than one player underperforming, you know.
Syckle78
Registered User
These things are not mutually exclusive. You can want young players to play and get opportunities to succeed and still be honest when they are shitting the bed. 3 goals now in 18 games is awful no matter how you slice it and absolutely opens him up to criticism.
Cyborg Yzerberg
Registered User
MBH
Players Play
Zadina's TOI is down a bit this year
16:48 last year
15:40 this year.
Last 3 games
13:10
12:32
13:34
I think it's mostly due to lack of powerplay time.
Last 3
2:00
0:51
0:00
His line was good today, even though he only had one shot.
I would guess Raymond has taken his first unit PP time.
16:48 last year
15:40 this year.
Last 3 games
13:10
12:32
13:34
I think it's mostly due to lack of powerplay time.
Last 3
2:00
0:51
0:00
His line was good today, even though he only had one shot.
I would guess Raymond has taken his first unit PP time.
Shaman464
No u
Gniwder
Registered User
Coach Reggie Dunlop
Registered User
We all wish Zadina was playing better, he shows flashes at times of a player that truly could be a 30 goal scorer then other times looks like he has hands of helm. When he had more confidence in his game he played so much better. He had a good goal tonight tho, so that’s a plus. Anyone saying to get rid of him when there’s absolutely no reason to is an idiot though, wait until he’s like 24. There is no rush to get rid of him.
AlwaysSunnyInDetroit
Registered User
- Oct 1, 2021
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Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
- 36,243
- 14,753
What do you think of Zadina's CF% being noticeably better this year? I know you have been critical of that with him in the past.
MBH
Players Play
I think it's a sign his line is doing a better job buzzing around the Ozone.
It's really hard to isolate CF%. It's hard to know what kind of deployment he's getting/matchups he's getting.
But eye-test wise, it does feel like his line is spending more time in the Ozone.
Not sure if it was here or elsewhere, but there are some good signs in the analytics.
His own shots/60 is up to 7.28 from 6.16. His individual CF/60 rose from 9.81 to 14.33.
Those seem to match what I see with the eye test.
But the frustrating thing is that it often seems like it's Zadina who's f***ing up the play. Who makes the bad pass that ends the possession when there should have been a scoring chance. He misses the net from the slot.
I think what happens is Zadina ends up like Lias Andersson. Never lives up to his draft position. Team ships him off to some other team for an afterthought.
Other team picks him up and says, "Hey, this guy ain't bad. He plays hard and has some skill."
Andersson on the Kings looks like a good depth player who flashes signals that he could improve.
How much? Who knows.
But the expectations are low ... so who cares?
The real issue with Zadina is production.
19-20 = .7 G/60 1.41 P/60 - solid but unspectacular production.
20-21 - .27 G.60 1.16p/60 - 3rd/4th line production
21-22 - .27 G?60 .81 P/60 - 4th line production
Other Wings forwards over their first 3 years
Raymond
1.02 G/60 2.55 p/60 - 1st line numbers
Larkin -
1.01 v 2.01 - 1st line numbers
.51 v 1.2 - 3rd/4th line production
.64 v 2.26 - 1st line production
Mantha
.98 v 2.18 - 1st line production
.78 vs 1.88 - 1st/2nd line production
.8 v 1.6 - 2nd/3rd line production
AA
1.39 vs 2,38 - 1st line production
1.27 v 1.95 - 1st line productin
.87 vs 1.81 - 2nd line production
Bertuzzi
.59 vs 2.08 - 1st line production
.87 vs 2.14 - 1st line production
.9 v 1.8 - 2md line production
Rasmussen
.19 vs 1.06 - 4th line
.26 vs 1.05 - 4th line
.28 vs 1.4 - 3rd line
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GMR
Registered User
We already have Joe Veleno.Package Zadina and Fabbri for a legitimate 2nd line Center.
LOL I don't think you can explain away how bad Zadina is playing with your fancy numbers.
Who you gonna believe? These underlying statistics, or your lying eyes? Sure he can't make a pass, everytime he touches the puck he gives it away, he can't win a board battle, and his shot can't get more than 4 inches off the ice (strategically or not). At least he is tracked to be in the right places!
Snuggs
Registered User
- Jun 24, 2018
- 2,267
- 1,086
Honestly I love that confidence but... common...
You really ready to crown the kid right now? I mean, also, if he is that good. Nothing wrong with watching someone work there way up and force more playing time. If Veleno is that good, the worst thing possible is we have four capable centers next year after signing Hertl( Larkin/Hertl/Veleno/Suter ) Then, you'd have to throw Rasmussen in the mix on those bottom lines, he's been better than average at face offs this year and working his way (niche) into that bottom line role player.
Idk, a top notch 2nd line center, (within the right age/time frame), is about the best thing Red Wings can do right now outside of trading for a superstar. Fabbri isn't signed next year and is having a rough go so far, Zadina isn't terrible but will forever be in the shadow of Hughes who we passed on and seemingly were going to select until Zadina fell. Unless he's a regular 25/30 goal scorer he'll draw the angst of fans. Moving on could be good for all honestly.(Him,Redwings,Fans) Who's that 2nd line center to target? IDK, I keep saying Hertl, but he's cost more than just Zadina/Fabbri.
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Annoyance at snark aside, this is really it for Zadina, IMO. If he doesn't start scoring this season, the overwhelming number of high end forwards in the NHL (and their development pathways) suggest he never will (not that he can't, but anyone banking on it ought to buy some Powerball tickets). All the fancy stats in the world don't change that. If he doesn't/can't, he tops out at, what, a defensively-responsible middle-six winger? Sounds like exactly the kind of thing you can get a bunch of, every year in FA.
I'm very happy to give him till the TDL, with whatever opportunities he can get (and I'd really prefer them to be high quality [whether that means 1st line with high-end players around him or 3rd line against weaker competition, or PP or whatever] - a few extra points in the standings isn't worth anything compared to figuring out which of the kids should really stick around long term) - but if he's still not putting the puck in the net, or somehow turning into a high-end playmaker, Yzerman should absolutely be actively figuring out if anyone else in the league values him and if moving him can help us resolve the C issue.
I'm very happy to give him till the TDL, with whatever opportunities he can get (and I'd really prefer them to be high quality [whether that means 1st line with high-end players around him or 3rd line against weaker competition, or PP or whatever] - a few extra points in the standings isn't worth anything compared to figuring out which of the kids should really stick around long term) - but if he's still not putting the puck in the net, or somehow turning into a high-end playmaker, Yzerman should absolutely be actively figuring out if anyone else in the league values him and if moving him can help us resolve the C issue.
Henkka
Registered User
Just like Troy Terry didn't score more than 0.37 per game pace before his 24th birthday. Zadina is ahead of that pace with his 0.42 career scoring.
And now, since turning 24, Terry is scoring point per game. He is 3 years older than Zadina.
This season is nothing like a final chance for Zadina, and next isn't either.
People still won't get that, only thing wrong with Zadina, is everybody's expectations. Wrong expectations.
If Zadina can be a ~15 goal guy who can bounce around the top9 and compliment different lines and is cost controlled for the next several years...I see some good value in that. A value that I would be surprised if we matched in a deal because it's not like other teams don't get to watch him play. Maybe someone decides to overpay and gets crazy, but I'd bet we're looking at a 2nd+4th or something if we try to deal him. /
Fancy stats aside, I still don't like that 2nd line. At the very least I'd swap Erne and Zadina. I think Zadina would benefit from playing with a guy or two who routinely goes to the trenches.
I think that's fair - I'm not saying they should sell him for whatever by any means (and especially not for crummy picks that are more likely to turn into nothing than another Zadina). But I think there's a point where everyone needs to be honest about what he's most likely to be able to contribute (and again, I'm not giving up on him yet - I think some better bounces and some personal growth can change a LOT for him very quickly).
I'm really not sure why you think "overwhelming number" and "all" are the same thing. Pointing out that one dude got better after 24 is a really, really bad counter-argument to the fact that the vast majority of players don't. Are you equally expecting Ras to turn into a PPG player based on one random dude who beat the odds?
Are you saying you expected Zadina to take several years, and be an extraordinary outlier in the NHL, in terms of scoring ability? Or just that no one should expect anything out of high end draft picks, and that everything is akin to throwing darts? I don't get where you're going with this.
Zero reason to move him right now. By the admission of everyone, he is not performing at the level many expected, and opposing GMs will acknowledge that in potential trade scenarios. You would be selling at a low on a piece that you are heavily invested in. Zadina isn't a bad hockey player. He's a quality piece today and in the future, but if the production continues to evade him, he's not going to cost shit to sign and hold for a long time. We'd be better served to hang onto him, sign him for cheaper contracts and commit to making him the middle 6 winger that you can rely on defensively, will chip in some production, and hope that something eventually clicks. We need to do a better job of adjusting expectations instead of looking to offload everyone who doesn't meet them. Especially now that we are moving towards building up, not tearing down. It's one thing to move on from 26-year-old Mantha for picks and Vrana when you still haven't seen the new core. It's a little different to move on from 22-year-old Zadina just because he's a middle 6 forward instead of a top line forward when you're struggling to find scoring depth away from the first line.
GMR
Registered User
Is this European soccer? Have we already signed Hertl to play in Detroit next season?
Ghost of Ethan Hunt
The Official Ghost of Space Ghosts Monkey
I was a bit bored and had some spare time at lunch so I've looked at 6th OA picks from 05-15. There were nine forwards picked in that time frame (two defencemen, OEL and Lindholm). The average career for forwards in that time frame was 508 games, 116 goals, and 155 assists. Overall they average .22 goals and .3 assists per game over their careers for .53 points per game. Zadina is a bit below those rates, but if he plays well enough to stick around for another 400 or so games, I wouldn't be surprised if he can bump his production up to .53 over that time.
None of this is to say Zadina is good, bad, or whatever. Just trying to provide a bit of context for what we should maybe expect from a forward picked in his spot. I keep hoping he'll find another gear, and I know my expectations/hopes when he was drafted were certainly a bit north of what he's done so far...but he doesn't look crazily off from what typically comes from that spot.
None of this is to say Zadina is good, bad, or whatever. Just trying to provide a bit of context for what we should maybe expect from a forward picked in his spot. I keep hoping he'll find another gear, and I know my expectations/hopes when he was drafted were certainly a bit north of what he's done so far...but he doesn't look crazily off from what typically comes from that spot.
Dotter
THE ATHLETIC IS GARBAGE
Zadina sure is showing flashes. Reminds me a bit of how Filppula's career started. You saw so much potential and just knew he was going to breakout into an all-star center, but just never got over the hump to become a game breaker. While Filppula was a fine player (obviously), I think everyone would agree if something clicked, he could have been a great player.
I'm worried about Zadina the same way. Could he break out and become dominant, or will he carve out a career of never getting over the hump and become what we think he's capable of becoming?
EDIT: what I mean is I had hoped Zadina would bring the impact such as Alex Debrincat does for his team. Now I am starting to feel we'll be lucky if we get a Gus Nyquist - type impact.
I'm worried about Zadina the same way. Could he break out and become dominant, or will he carve out a career of never getting over the hump and become what we think he's capable of becoming?
EDIT: what I mean is I had hoped Zadina would bring the impact such as Alex Debrincat does for his team. Now I am starting to feel we'll be lucky if we get a Gus Nyquist - type impact.
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Snuggs
Registered User
- Jun 24, 2018
- 2,267
- 1,086
The conversation is on the assumption(S), Veleno is really good and we signed Hertl and the worst out come of that situation.
In realty. Veleno is a rookie you know not much about and Hertl is on the Sharks.
Are you being snarky about the European thing? My whole situation was hypothetical to begin with and you choose to comment about Veleno. Obviously he's here, doesn't mean he's good enough to be the 2nd line center. Also doesn't mean he can't be and again, if he is and Red Wings signed someone else anyways... whats the harm? You mad they went and signed a good player? Doesn't even have to be Hertl he's just my example and who I like.
Idk what the European soccer thing was about really... They having free agency right now?
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