News Article: WIIM: Filip Zadina Deserves Better...

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Filip Zadina deserves better than the results he’s getting


(Excerpt):


" Fast forward to 2021-22, and Zadina looks far more comfortable. The trend started towards the end of last season, and it has continued so far. The problem is, even though he seems more comfortable, he’s not scoring.
Zadina is creating chances

It’s almost universally understood that Zadina is playing exceptionally well right now. My colleague Jake Rivard even put him in his article about three overperforming and underperforming Red Wings players. However, it doesn’t matter if he’s not putting pucks in the back of the net. He’s either on the receiving end of a great pass, and the goalie makes an incredible save, or one bounce here or there determines the outcome of the goal.

I mean, look at this save made on Zadina by Dustin Tokarski. It’s a great play by all involved, but the Buffalo Sabres goaltender manages to come away with the last laugh.

Robby Fabbri sets up Filip Zadina, just moments before Zadina sets up Robby Fabbri on an almost identical chance.

Neither hits the twine. Wings still lead 1-0 #LGRW pic.twitter.com/C55gUvG2p3
— Nolan Bianchi (@nolanbianchi) November 6, 2021

It’s sequences like this that have been happening all season long. I’m sure that the feeling of unluckiness or a slump, in general, is starting to weigh on Zadina quite a bit. He was pegged as this incredible goal scorer, and even though he has been doing everything correctly to earn more, he’s not getting a fair share.

On the other end of the spectrum, we’ve seen the young forward show off his gifts with goals like this one against the Toronto Maple Leafs. He clearly still has a lot to offer.

Filip Zadina (@zadina_filip) doesn't need much time to let the puck fly.

: @Sportsnet Sportsnet NOW - Home pic.twitter.com/koOX92CMQn
— NHL (@Nhl) October 31, 2021

It’s not as if Zadina’s linemates have been awful either. As a trio, they have a 63.88 xGF% at 5v5, which is first among the four lines (minimum 30 minutes) for the Red Wings. Yes, that’s even higher than the line with Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin, and Tyler Bertuzzi. They have a 73.03 goals for percentage (GF%) as well. The expected number comes from a high amount of offensive chances. In contrast, the regular number comes from not allowing goals, or just Thomas Greiss and Alex Nedeljkovic not allowing them while this particular line is on the ice.

What does this mean for Zadina individually? Well, his expected numbers are excellent, but his actual numbers aren’t all that special. We can start with the box score, where he has six points in 16 games. Then, we can go to the analytics, where his regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) chart shows a pretty significant discrepancy.
Filip Zadina RAPM Chart (16 games) Evolving-Hockey

To be above the second line on the chart is extremely impressive, but ideally, the player’s goals for per 60 (GF/60) bar is there and not his expected goals for per 60 (xGF/60). The defense could use a bit of work too, but there is no need to focus on it. At this point, his scoring is a way more important issue.

The numbers continue to look awful for Zadina. In terms of GAR, he ranks 16th out of 17 players with a GAR of minus-2.4 (minimum of 150 minutes). However, he shoots up the rankings to 11th in xGAR with 0.1. It might not seem like a huge difference, but it is. It can be the difference between winning and losing games.
Is it time to panic?

The short answer is no. Absolutely not. Fortunately, hockey is a game that regression can play a significant factor. One can look at the standings up to this point and see that something isn’t right. The same thing goes for individual performances. There is a tangible improvement in his game, and that’s the most important thing right now. The goals and the assists will come in time. All it takes is a couple of bounces here and there to get the train rolling down the right track. When that comes is a mystery to everyone involved, including Zadina. The best thing that he can do right now is staying the course. He’s playing exceptionally well, and his numbers demonstrate that.

It’s also important not to get too down on him. He’s playing well, and any more pressure than what he’s probably putting on himself won’t do anything but harm. He’s a highly talented player, and he’s showcased that even through his struggles this season. Time is the solution to the problem."

Click to read more...

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Bs article. f***ing play better period. Kid came in the league with an "edge" " I'm going to fill their nets with pucks" Do it!

 

[MBH]

"It's almost universally understood that Zadina is playing exceptionally well right now."

Homer blog trying to rewrite the narrative by pronouncement.

What a load of shit.
2 goals and 6 points in 17 games.

He's going to be 22 at the end of this month.
That's getting to that age where you're really not a prospect anymore.

Makes you wonder if the Red Wings made a mistake turning him pro so soon.

 

[Gniwder]

If the expected GF is good but the actual GF is terrible, doesn't that just mean the entire line sucks at shooting?

 

[TheMule93]

Yall are savage

 

[lomekian]

If the expected GF is good but the actual GF is terrible, doesn't that just mean the entire line sucks at shooting?

It does seem as their shooting % has been stolen by Bertuzzi and Namestnikov, both of whom are double their career shootng % so far, whereas all of the second line are between 2% and 6% below their career averages. Ironically Zadina's more snakebit this year, even as he is getting braver at getting to prime scoring spots in traffic. The outlier however is Fabbri who's shooting is almost 50% down on his career....so we should see some regression to the mean. I do worry, however, that the second line is all a bit same-ey, and lacks the balance of either a more diversified collective skillset or the chemistry of players who naturally play the same game.

Can't help think that Vrana's return will be big for Zadina based on last season, and we all know Suter is really a 3rd line center playing a little too high

 

[raymond23]

Eventually we gotta stop making excuses and he needs to produce. He’s on pace for 9 goals just like last year.

He has very little deception to his game. He does a great job in a lot of small areas and puts in a lot of effort but he doesn’t bring anything offensively.

 

[izlez]

I really wonder what it would be like if I could live in this fantasy-land too

 

[r0bert8841]

I still don’t understand why they don’t switch Erne and Zadina, both lines look way better when they do.

 

[Henkka]

If the expected GF is good but the actual GF is terrible, doesn't that just mean the entire line sucks at shooting?

Something like that. Or are having just a bad puck luck.

On previous years, they didn't have even good expected numbers.

I could say this predicts a better production at some point.

Still, that line defends pretty well, so I don't see big problem there. Stat-watchers desperately need production. xGF% is almost identical to GF%. Responsible defence is good hockey.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I do wonder when people start to attack Fabbri the same way they attack Zadina. Or do we just selectively pick the people we want to hang from the gallows based on an irrelevant set of qualifications?

He has 1 more goal than Zadina, falls behind Zadina in almost every single predictive analytical category, his play on the defensive side of the puck is nearly treacherous, his brain lapses generally happen in more dangerous areas of the ice or at more inopportune times.

I've seen nobody besides @ButtKrak harp on Fabbri's disappointing play at any point in time, but yet it feels like half of the members here want Zadina extradited back to the Czech Republic while still slobbering over Fabbri just because the trade was 1 for 1. I could not care less about how a player comes into the fold. I don't care that Fabbri was a dumpster dive by Yzerman and that Zadina was a #6 overall pick. They are playing essentially the same role, with the same output, on the same team at the same time. One presents a pretty clear analytical leg up, and the impacts shown by With or Without point to A) firstly some really nice chemistry between the two, but B) some really interesting metrics. They both are hurt playing away from one another, but Zadina's numbers are a little bit more resilient than Fabbri's. That is particularly interesting because Fabbri's most common linemates away from that second line are Larkin, Bertuzzi, and Raymond filling in for whichever of those first two were out on a given night. Zadina's most common linemates away from the second line are Erne, Veleno, Namestnikov and Rasmussen.

So Fabbri gets elevated and plays worse, and Zadina gets demoted and plays worse but not to the same extend that Fabbri plays worse.

Fabbri+Zadina:
CF% - 54.66%
GF% - 57.14%
xGF% - 62.05%
SCF% - 55.81%
HDCF% - 66.67%

Fabbri w/o Zadina:
CF% - 43.23%
GF% - 28.57%
xGF% - 42.59%
SCF% - 36.45%
HDCF% - 31.82%

Zadina w/o Fabbri:
CF% - 42.93%
GF% - 33.33%
xGF% - 46.76%
SCF% - 45.83%
HDCF% - 37.78%

 

[izlez]

I do wonder when people start to attack Fabbri the same way they attack Zadina. Or do we just selectively pick the people we want to hang from the gallows based on an irrelevant set of qualifications?

He has 1 more goal than Zadina, falls behind Zadina in almost every single predictive analytical category, his play on the defensive side of the puck is nearly treacherous, his brain lapses generally happen in more dangerous areas of the ice or at more inopportune times.

I don't know... I do a search for "Fabbri" and the majority of comments mentioning him are critical.

Maybe the criticism would be more apparent if we had people making "Fabbri deserves better" threads and constantly digging deeper and deeper into fancy stats to find one that tells us he's on the verge of turning it around.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I do wonder when people start to attack Fabbri the same way they attack Zadina. Or do we just selectively pick the people we want to hang from the gallows based on an irrelevant set of qualifications?

He has 1 more goal than Zadina, falls behind Zadina in almost every single predictive analytical category, his play on the defensive side of the puck is nearly treacherous, his brain lapses generally happen in more dangerous areas of the ice or at more inopportune times.

I've seen nobody besides @ButtKrak harp on Fabbri's disappointing play at any point in time, but yet it feels like half of the members here want Zadina extradited back to the Czech Republic while still slobbering over Fabbri just because the trade was 1 for 1. I could not care less about how a player comes into the fold. I don't care that Fabbri was a dumpster dive by Yzerman and that Zadina was a #6 overall pick. They are playing essentially the same role, with the same output, on the same team at the same time. One presents a pretty clear analytical leg up, and the impacts shown by With or Without point to A) firstly some really nice chemistry between the two, but B) some really interesting metrics. They both are hurt playing away from one another, but Zadina's numbers are a little bit more resilient than Fabbri's. That is particularly interesting because Fabbri's most common linemates away from that second line are Larkin, Bertuzzi, and Raymond filling in for whichever of those first two were out on a given night. Zadina's most common linemates away from the second line are Erne, Veleno, Namestnikov and Rasmussen.

So Fabbri gets elevated and plays worse, and Zadina gets demoted and plays worse but not to the same extend that Fabbri plays worse.

Fabbri+Zadina:
CF% - 54.66%
GF% - 57.14%
xGF% - 62.05%
SCF% - 55.81%
HDCF% - 66.67%

Fabbri w/o Zadina:
CF% - 43.23%
GF% - 28.57%
xGF% - 42.59%
SCF% - 36.45%
HDCF% - 31.82%

Zadina w/o Fabbri:
CF% - 42.93%
GF% - 33.33%
xGF% - 46.76%
SCF% - 45.83%
HDCF% - 37.78%

Solid assessment. I'm not an analytics guru, so what about when you factor in QoC% etc. ? Would that change the equation?

 

[Hen Kolland]

Solid assessment. I'm not an analytics guru, so what about when you factor in QoC% etc. ? Would that change the equation?

I think it could, but QoC in theory should be matched by QoS. Maybe not a 1:1 scale, but some positive correlation. Fabbri getting elevated to the first line pits him against the harder competition, but Raymond and Bert/Larkin gives him two better linemates to work with than he had on the second line. And Zadina falling to the third line may get easier competition, but his support also degrades as well.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I think it could, but QoC in theory should be matched by QoS. Maybe not a 1:1 scale, but some positive correlation. Fabbri getting elevated to the first line pits him against the harder competition, but Raymond and Bert/Larkin gives him two better linemates to work with than he had on the second line. And Zadina falling to the third line may get easier competition, but his support also degrades as well.

so then both are offset in that case to a fairly equal amt. +/- ?

 

[Frk It]

As far as this article is concerned, I just have a hard time agreeing with the point they are trying to make.

Do you feel like Zadina is going to score when he shoots? Because I don't. And it doesn't really seem like he does either. So although he might be doing some nice things, and maybe has some good underlying analytics, I can't say I agree with their overall point until he shows me differently.

Also, I do not like our 2nd line. It is a weird mixed bag of bleh. I can't wait for Vrana to come back.

 

[Frk It]

I think it could, but QoC in theory should be matched by QoS. Maybe not a 1:1 scale, but some positive correlation. Fabbri getting elevated to the first line pits him against the harder competition, but Raymond and Bert/Larkin gives him two better linemates to work with than he had on the second line. And Zadina falling to the third line may get easier competition, but his support also degrades as well.

I get your overall point, but I have at least liked Fabbri (eye-test wise) when they have put him on a line with Larkin and Raymond. Maybe I'm wrong. I think our 2nd line has just been shit.

Maybe Fabbri could work with Vrana when he comes back. Then slide Zadina to the 3rd line.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

As far as this article is concerned, I just have a hard time agreeing with the point they are trying to make.

Do you feel like Zadina is going to score when he shoots? Because I don't. And it doesn't really seem like he does either. So although he might be doing some nice things, and maybe has some good underlying analytics, I can't say I agree with their overall point until he shows me differently.

Also, I do not like our 2nd line. It is a weird mixed bag of bleh. I can't wait for Vrana to come back.

Totally fair take.


I am once again Faxing this to Mrs. Blash.


L2 needs more size + grit (realgud piano hauler).

Vrana-Larkin-Raymond (speed burner & skill line w/clutch)

Bert-Suter-Fabbri Guelph Storm (proven/ known chemistry)

Namestnikov-Veleno-Zadina (V & Z known chemistry)
Erne-Moose-Stephens

---------
Gags
Smitty
Rowney

 

[Hen Kolland]

I get your overall point, but I have at least liked Fabbri (eye-test wise) when they have put him on a line with Larkin and Raymond. Maybe I'm wrong. I think our 2nd line has just been shit.

Maybe Fabbri could work with Vrana when he comes back. Then slide Zadina to the 3rd line.

If I am looking at the trends, kind of like a rolling average of performance, Zadina has consistently been the better player to my eye than Fabbri. He offers more on the defensive side of the puck, I think he's a better playmaker for his linemates (part of this is because I actually believe Fabbri has some selfish tendencies), and right now Fabbri is a better goal scorer. I don't think his shooting ability is better, but Fabbri has developed a really strong goal scorers mentality. He shoots the puck in bunches, he does so unapologetically, he is trying to pick corners, and nothing about his game indicates frustration with his lack of goals. Zadina on the other hand gets timid with his shot and visibly looks to be frustrated and gripping the stick.

I believe there will come a time in Zadina's career where he mentally matures enough to maintain a sense of calm and trust in his shot and things start to come much easier for him.

Between Zadina and Fabbri, I see more potential in Zadina's game, and I see very little left to be revealed in Fabbri's game.

 

[Frk It]

I believe there will come a time in Zadina's career where he mentally matures enough to maintain a sense of calm and trust in his shot and things start to come much easier for him.

This is what I have been hoping/waiting for.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

As far as this article is concerned, I just have a hard time agreeing with the point they are trying to make.

Do you feel like Zadina is going to score when he shoots? Because I don't. And it doesn't really seem like he does either. So although he might be doing some nice things, and maybe has some good underlying analytics, I can't say I agree with their overall point until he shows me differently.

Also, I do not like our 2nd line. It is a weird mixed bag of bleh. I can't wait for Vrana to come back.

100% on this train. The 2nd line has 2 pieces (Fabbri - Suter) That would make for a decent scoring 3rd line. But we're not that deep. I can see them providing better scoring depth against lower quality of competition as a 3rd line with Erne on the wing. At the same time, Fabbri is pretty bad defensively and is prone to make really bad passes on the breakout that cause the line to get hemmed into their zone. I like that he provides cheap scoring depth and was basically free, but I don't like the defensive liability.

Vrana provides a good weapon on the 2nd line and he's probably the one player Zadina has good chemistry with. Berggren is pretty hot in Grand Rapids right now and may also be a near future option.

2nd line C is problematic. Either Veleno needs to step up big, we need to make a trade, or we need to draft someone to fill that hole behind Larkin.

 

[19 for president]

Fabbri- Suter- Zadina is a soft line. There is no one on that line that can create any space and I think that is a real problem, especially when none of them are burners either. I really like the idea of switching Erne and Zadina.

Fabbri-Suter- Erne (gives this line a bit more grit and net presence and Erne has show he has some touch)
Namestikov- Ras/ Veleno- Zadina (Now that Nammy isn't being a black hole offensively, I think this line could use Zadina's skill/playmaking, get him some good matchups, and help him build confidence, while making that line a bit more balance offensively)

Zadina is just missing on a lot of chances. He should have more points then he currently does, and really just needs to gain some confidence. He is clearly overthinking in some areas and double clutching that stick. Get him with some guys that can get him some dirty goals/ assists to build some confidence.

 

[njx9]

while still slobbering over Fabbri

I wonder why people might have different expectations between Fabbri and Zadina. It's an absolute mystery. Must be all the slobbering, or whatever.

 

[Frk It]

Vrana provides a good weapon on the 2nd line and he's probably the one player Zadina has good chemistry with. Berggren is pretty hot in Grand Rapids right now and may also be a near future option.

I thought I remember Zadina and Vrana not mixing well.

I would like to see Bertuzzi and Zadina on a line. But I don't want to mess with the chemistry that top line has.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Bs article. f***ing play better period. Kid came in the league with an "edge" " I'm going to fill their nets with pucks" Do it!

okay