Why is it so Hard to Make a Trade?

[struckmatch]

That'd make sense if +/- had much of anything to with defensive play. Kostitsyn is a +9 and makes plays like this:

Of course it has a lot to do with defensively play, it's not the be all, end all of stats, but it has merit.

Why is it that Hodgson's +/- during his time as a Canuck was brought up, but while his +/- is good in Buffalo, it "has nothing to do with defensive play"

Typical.

 

[604]

The problem is the Endowment Effect:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endowment_effect

 

[King of the ES*]

Less balance between buyers and sellers though. No one wants to trade roster players away because almost every team in the league thinks they're still in the hunt for a playoff spot.

...but they shouldn't. And that's really my point.

People can talk about how "anything can happen as long as you get into the playoffs - just look at LA!" Well, guess what; LA was stacked. They were underachieving. Do the Phoenix Coyotes really fancy themselves as contenders, as long as they get in to the playoffs? How about the Ottawa Senators? San Jose Sharks? Come on.

And here again is the problem - no GM seems to want to admit that they suck, even though that admittance and dealing with it quickly would probably lead to a much brighter future.

If Gillis gets canned (unlikely, of course), I'd love to see the Canucks bring in a smart, aggressive guy that's not part of the NHL ol' boys club and isn't scared to make moves.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Hearing Gillis on the radio this morning go on and on about how hard it is to make a trade, as he so often does, motivated me to start this thread. This has actually bothered me for a long time (possibly because I earn a living as a trader).

How can it possibly be that difficult to make a trade?

There are 30 teams, all in different phases, with different strengths, weaknesses, needs, and assets. I just don't buy for a second that it's "so hard" to make trades in the NHL. Cap compliance is mostly elementary stuff. What are the other barriers?

IMO, there are mostly no trades in the NHL because you've got 30 gun-shy GMs who's first interest is in keeping their seven-figure jobs for as long as they can. A single, costly mistake can rid them of that position pretty quickly - just ask Dale Tallon. So the effect is that you've got the Canucks with two goalies on their roster, each of whom should be starting, since roughly 2011, and that's not at all the league's only example of poor roster fit.

You've then got each GMs ego to satisfy. You can be sure that they never want to be the one making the first call.

So you've got guys who badly don't want to make a mistake, and you've got guys with ego's who don't ever want to appear bargaining from a position of weakness. And this leads to no activity at all in the NHL, which, to me, makes absolutely no sense.

Anyone else agree/not buy the "it's so hard to make a trade" excuse fed to us by MG?

It's no an excuse, cause it is the same thing every other GM in the league is saying.

If you haven't noticed there have been to nothing in terms of significant trades since the lockout transpired.

MG is working his butt off to make moves, but nothing that makes sense has come our way.

Then you also have to consider that the cap is dropping, and also that there are sso many teams still in contention for the playoffs, that there are very very few sellers and a ton of buyers.

Meaning price will be unrealistically high.

I don't know about you, but I don't want to overpay for a rental or anything like that.

So continue to feel however you want, but the fact of the matter right now is deals are extremely tough to come by, although I imagine some things will change at the deadline.

 

[LolClarkson*]

...but they shouldn't. And that's really my point.

People can talk about how "anything can happen as long as you get into the playoffs - just look at LA!" Well, guess what; LA was stacked. They were underachieving. Do the Phoenix Coyotes really fancy themselves as contenders, as long as they get in to the playoffs? How about the Ottawa Senators? San Jose Sharks? Come on.

And here again is the problem - no GM seems to want to admit that they suck, even though that admittance and dealing with it quickly would probably lead to a much brighter future.

If Gillis gets canned (unlikely, of course), I'd love to see the Canucks bring in a smart, aggressive guy that's not part of the NHL ol' boys club and isn't scared to make moves.

But the 2006 Oilers were not stacked and they did almost the same thing. Remember the road to get there ? Stacked Detroit team, stacked Ducks team, stacked Sharks team.

Montreal did it too not long ago.

 

[dbaz]

because real life isn't nhl 2013. also you don't make a trade just to make a trade.

 

[Bleach Clean]

...but they shouldn't. And that's really my point.

People can talk about how "anything can happen as long as you get into the playoffs - just look at LA!" Well, guess what; LA was stacked. They were underachieving. Do the Phoenix Coyotes really fancy themselves as contenders, as long as they get in to the playoffs? How about the Ottawa Senators? San Jose Sharks? Come on.

And here again is the problem - no GM seems to want to admit that they suck, even though that admittance and dealing with it quickly would probably lead to a much brighter future.

If Gillis gets canned (unlikely, of course), I'd love to see the Canucks bring in a smart, aggressive guy that's not part of the NHL ol' boys club and isn't scared to make moves.

So sack Gillis only to bring in exactly that type of GM?

And why blame Gillis for other teams not admitting they suck?

 

[King of the ES*]

MG is working his butt off to make moves, but nothing that makes sense has come our way.

Oh, so it makes sense to have $9.3M in scarce cap dollars allocated to two goaltenders, one of whom that has asked for a trade?

 

[Alan Jackson]

Actually, I believe Nonis was known for saying "we're not gonna to make a trade for the sake of making a trade".

As for your "anything of value" comment - value is subjective. Honestly, what is either Luongo/Schneider's value to the Canucks as a backup on any given night? Much lower than as another team's starter. Dale Tallon should be fired on the grounds of how he handled Stephen Weiss, as should Gillis on how he's handled these two goaltenders.

It would be nice to see the NHL go outside the box for once and hire someone unrelated to hockey with a specific role as a GM, not just some other has-been that's already part of the members-only club. I'd love to see Wally Buono manage an NHL team.

What I'm saying about giving up something of value is a reluctance to trade your best players, even if it might make you better.

What might Alex Burrows fetch in a trade? What could you have received in return for Ryan Kesler before his NTC kicked in? Or Alex Edler?

If you want to change the make-up of your team, trading middle round picks or players you'd glady part with isn't going to get it done.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

There have been 33 trades in this shortened season involving over 23 teams.

I understand there have not been any blockbusters, but come on. I understand trading is hard but seriously guys?

Insane how so many people resort to the "trading is hard okay!" rebuttal when Gillis is questioned. We know it's hard, or else any of us could be General Managers.

Get results, I'm sick of hearing stuff I already know, we know it's hard Mike, but that doesn't mean it's not possible.

Alright, I'll MG and tell him to overpay.

Schroeder + 1st for Jagr.

That way you can be satisfied that a deal was made. Then when we are out in the 1st or 2nd round of the playoffs, and Dallas is selecting in the first round and they have a young roster player with good upside in there line-up next year. I can come on HF and see you whine about how MG blew that one too.

Trades are hard to come by right now, there is overwhelming evidence of this throughout the entire league. Cause if you haven't noticed 29 other teams have needs that they are working hard to fill for a reasonable price, but none of them have been able to do that, and that includes MG. But suddenly MG is the terrible MG and should be fired.

Lets just accept the fact that there isn't anything to be had right now, although I suspect that will change when teams on the outside looking in face the pressure decide on whether they are buyers or sellers, then they will realize they aren't a legit contender either way and sell players off for the greater good.

 

[King of the ES*]

But the 2006 Oilers were not stacked and they did almost the same thing. Remember the road to get there ? Stacked Detroit team, stacked Ducks team, stacked Sharks team.

Actually, Edmonton was pretty stacked. They had that Chris Pronger guy, remember? One of the last legitimate game-changers in the NHL. They had very good scoring depth with guys like Stoll & Torres, and they had solid veteran presence with guys like Peca & Jason Smith. That's another team that had clearly underachieved in the regular season.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

I'm pretty sure a lot of Canucks fans give a #### about Hodgson since he could help this team right now.

The entire Hodgson situation was a mishandling and giant mistake that falls mainly on the shoulders of Mike Gillis (Hodgson isn't innocent in this, but Gillis is the GM, he has to handle this situation much better)

The team's only real purpose is to entertain us? Wow! Thank you for enlightening me kind sir. Who need's standings, trophies, championships, awards, or anything like that? Abolish the playoffs while you're at it too!

You're right in a sense, but completely out to lunch in another. Yeah, professional sports is about entertainment, but for you to say that the sole purpose of the team? Incredibly ridiculous statement.

You know what fans find entertaining? Winning. Success drives professional sports franchises.

Mediocrity is so acceptable in Vancouver, it's seriously ridiculous how people don't want this team to push to do better. But it's okay I guess, at least the kids playing hockey during the intermissions are "entertaining"

Why does every thread have to turn into a Cody Hodgson thread?

But please continue to whine and paint MG as a fraud and Cody as the little old lady that can do no wrong.

Answer this. Since Hodgson is son much of a messiah in your books, yeah he scores points for the love of God there are so many rookies tearing it up. He would get eaten alive in the West and spat back out. If it's not the entertainment point producing aspect of Hodgson brings I swear no one would care. It's because he produced that's why fans cares. Simply put you just said yourself championships are what matter. He's so bad defensively there would be a what's wrong with Hodgson thread. I guarantee it. I'm happy for the kid but everyone needs to stop acting butt hurt over someone who would have cost is a a series. I guarantee it.

If he's so much a saviour why are the Sabres so terrible let alone why is his line by far the worst in the league defensively. No one has been able to answer this and I thought he was supposed to be a two way forward withe elite offensive skills. Sure I see the elite offensive skills but the defensive part hell no. He looks like a chicken with its head cut off.

EDIT: typing on my phone is a lot harder... I'm sure a lot of you can relate...

Wow what an expectional post.

Was gunna say something similar but then I read this, and felt no need to do so.

Thanks for that.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Oh, so it makes sense to have $9.3M in scarce cap dollars allocated to two goaltenders, one of whom that has asked for a trade?

Last time I checked "trading a goalie" wasn't a need in our depth chart.

Way to veer completely off course though rather than actually address my points.

 

[King of the ES*]

What I'm saying about giving up something of value is a reluctance to trade your best players, even if it might make you better.

What might Alex Burrows fetch in a trade? What could you have received in return for Ryan Kesler before his NTC kicked in? Or Alex Edler?

If you want to change the make-up of your team, trading middle round picks or players you'd glady part with isn't going to get it done.

Well, I certainly wouldn't want my GM to be gun-shy so as to not "disrupt the core". These Canucks, especially, operate in such a country club setting, that a little shake-up would be well in order, I would think.

I would absolutely not be opposed to trading any of those guys, and I don't know why a GM would be. Everybody should have a price. Professional athletes in a tradeable market should be treated like pawns. Wally Buono does this precisely, and he is hands-down the most successful GM in the game that he plays in.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

...but they shouldn't. And that's really my point.

People can talk about how "anything can happen as long as you get into the playoffs - just look at LA!" Well, guess what; LA was stacked. They were underachieving. Do the Phoenix Coyotes really fancy themselves as contenders, as long as they get in to the playoffs? How about the Ottawa Senators? San Jose Sharks? Come on.

And here again is the problem - no GM seems to want to admit that they suck, even though that admittance and dealing with it quickly would probably lead to a much brighter future.

If Gillis gets canned (unlikely, of course), I'd love to see the Canucks bring in a smart, aggressive guy that's not part of the NHL ol' boys club and isn't scared to make moves.

These are great points.

And are right. Although alot of teams still believe they are in it. Due to enforced parity.

So while they should think about the greater good if they aren't a legit contender, they won't because they are close to the playoffs, and really the pressure from ownership, fans and the outside world is to make the playoffs, so they continue to strive for that. Can't blame them.

That's just the way it is right now, that's not a fault of MG or anyone is our organization however. So I don't see the point of complaining about whether we think other GMs are making the right choices or not.

 

[arttk]

I said nothing about the return. Did you read my post? Did you see Kassian anywhere in there? Try understanding what I am saying, then respond.

Gillis said Hodgson complained right after he was dealt? How many examples have you seen where a GM deals a player, then basically bombards him in the media immediately after he trades the player?

Rare. Because it was planned. Gillis did that to save his own ass, and people like you just believe everything he says and this organization does is correct.

He would make us a better team, how does having a 27 point scorer in 31 games (where we are DYING for depth down the middle) not make us a better team?

Once again, I am posting these stats again since this "Hodgson is bad defensively myth is still out there"

President's trophies are not what the NHL is about, sure it's a great accomplishment, but it's about the Stanley Cup. You should know this by now.

We have injuries? I know we do. It's the GM's job to fill needs for his team, Gillis hasn't done that, at all - WHILE he has had an asset in goal that he should have trade before this season even started.

You said MG mishandled this situation. I don't see anything anything being mishandled. He has an asset who wants out and he got what he wanted in return for it, what is mishandled about that?

Oh you are not happy about MG talking about Cody right? This is the quote where he "bombards" Cody, “I spent more time on Cody [Hodgson] and his issues more than anybody. Cody did not want to be here. I don’t regret doing it… I’d do it again.â€

People like you like to point out he doesn't need to say it, but at the same time when the media asks the same question over and over and over again, he needs to answer that question to give closure.

You could point out that what he said was bashing but if you look at what he said, there was no direct character bashing. Simple statement, dealt with issues about Cody more than any other player. Cody did not want to be here, so we trade him. Truth hurts, deal with it.

The fun part is that even Hodgson dodges the question when he is being asked if he asked for a trade when he can simply say no ( if MG was lying ).

Take a 2nd and 3rd line center out of any team in this league (with a cap) and on top of that take out another 2nd and 3rd line winger and see if they can score. We are in a cap world, it is nearly impossible to have that type of depth and if you look around, no team has that kind of depth.
So now you are saying MG has failed because he is not able to build a team that nobody has been able to build.

 

[lush]

Hearing Gillis on the radio this morning go on and on about how hard it is to make a trade, as he so often does, motivated me to start this thread. This has actually bothered me for a long time (possibly because I earn a living as a trader).

How can it possibly be that difficult to make a trade?

There are 30 teams, all in different phases, with different strengths, weaknesses, needs, and assets. I just don't buy for a second that it's "so hard" to make trades in the NHL. Cap compliance is mostly elementary stuff. What are the other barriers?

IMO, there are mostly no trades in the NHL because you've got 30 gun-shy GMs who's first interest is in keeping their seven-figure jobs for as long as they can. A single, costly mistake can rid them of that position pretty quickly - just ask Dale Tallon. So the effect is that you've got the Canucks with two goalies on their roster, each of whom should be starting, since roughly 2011, and that's not at all the league's only example of poor roster fit.

You've then got each GMs ego to satisfy. You can be sure that they never want to be the one making the first call.

So you've got guys who badly don't want to make a mistake, and you've got guys with ego's who don't ever want to appear bargaining from a position of weakness. And this leads to no activity at all in the NHL, which, to me, makes absolutely no sense.

Anyone else agree/not buy the "it's so hard to make a trade" excuse fed to us by MG?

I'm really interested in this topic of conversation as well, though I'm not a trader.

A few discussion points:
I haven't ever found numbers to prove this, but it seems generally accepted as fact that trades have declined since the cap era. Anyone who can confirm this I would appreciate it. To me though I buy into this generally speaking as a fact until I'm educated otherwise.

Your point on GM salaries probably holds true to a certain degree, but I don't know if these salaries have ever really gone up, at least gone up and have a correlation with fewer trades

Your comment about ego's is probably telling, I have no anecdotes to provide but i'm sure there's something to be said about that. But what I don't get is that trades should never be adversarial in nature, even though everyday joes point to trades and judge winners. To me a winner of a trade should be both teams. In a trade two teams are basically partnering to solve their problems by exchanging pieces. Neither team should lose if this approach is taken. Both teams should come out of a trade with better teams as a result. Why is always, seemingly, about bending the other guy over?

Again I have no real stats, so i'm nervous about making this statement but it seems that in early days here with this new CBA that the amount of trades may be taking yet another step back.

I suspect that GM's aren't really "with it" as much as you might think and they are all waiting around nervously to understand some of the "gotchas" with the new CBA. There hasn't been single trade yet keeping salary or cap hit that I know of. We saw Feaster offer sheet ROR even though he apparently would have to pass waivers anyways. Are these guys so unconfident about being robbed or missing some legal aspect of generally making a mistake that they have frozen the entire market?


In conclusion, the only explenation I can really offer, which isn't based on anything i've actually quantified is that as CBA 'loopholes' slowly get closed, and they are now that we're in the second CBA agreement of the cap era, it's simply becoming increasingly difficult to bury past mistakes through a loophole that everyone just as you suspected is paranoid of screwing up.

 

[Pip]

because this isn't ****ing NHL13, if Gillis doesn't want to overpay in this sellers marker, then it will be difficult to get a deal done at all.

 

[lush]

Also, from an economic standpoint, when buyers and sellers cannot determine market value of something it does typically slow down the market. So with a slowing market it does stand to reason that nobody can value assets very well. As I noted in the previous post I suspect this is because none of the GM's can see into the future as to what value players will have down the road with their contacts and where the cap will be and what will be valuable and not valuable. What meaningful impact does the cap recapture formula have on applicable contacts? what impact on asset value does retaining salary and cap truly have? These guys don't know and are playing it safer. We did see some dumb moves after the 2005 CBA, teams are taking no action as a way to protect themselves. I get the impression Gillis and Gillman are on top of this stuff when compared to other organizations, i'm not saying they are the best at it but I suspect they are better than most. If this is true (and I can't prove it) they are probably genuinely frustrated waiting for other teams to figure it out, calculate their risks and plans involving the cap moving forward. Not knowing what will give them a competitive advantage has left a "wait and see" type mentality on the market.

 

[canuck4life16]

because this isn't ****ing NHL13, if Gillis doesn't want of overpay in this sellers marker, then it will be difficult to get a deal done at all.

the OP don't understand making a trade is hard.........majority of the team is still in the playoffs and no one want to be a seller...........suggest the OP go cheer for a new team.....

 

[LolClarkson*]

Actually, Edmonton was pretty stacked. They had that Chris Pronger guy, remember? One of the last legitimate game-changers in the NHL. They had very good scoring depth with guys like Stoll & Torres, and they had solid veteran presence with guys like Peca & Jason Smith. That's another team that had clearly underachieved in the regular season.

Give it a break.

They were getting AHL goal tending all year and Roloson played like garbage after the trade. They were clearly an underdog. Detroit was the Presidents trophy winner that year. The Sharks were in their prime. Ducks also. Peca and Jason Smith

 

[ProstheticConscience]

Also, it's a lot harder to make trades than it used to be before the salary cap because now you're not just trading players, you're trading contracts. The cap's going down next year, teams all have young guys coming up who might need raises (see: Chicago 2010), and yeah. Look how many teams have a theoretical shot at the playoffs. Look at the rosters of the teams who are pretty much out of it at this point. Supply and demand, folks.

Also, if anyone's determined to rehash the Hodgon/Gillis trade ********* for the 5 millionth time, could you please take it the Hodgson thread so the rest of us don't have to read your pointless obsession? Thanks.

 

[mossey3535]

Exactly. Let's stop with the "He Who Must Not Be Named".

I'm not making excuses for Gillis, but it's not easy to make a SIGNIFICANT trade this year.

I mean, why bother as a GM when there are 250+ guys becoming UFA in a year when the cap is going down $6M? You talk about adding something for nothing (besides money) here with Hamhuis and Garrison, well there's going to be a lot of that going on in the next two off-seasons.

Plus, all the teams are in contention, despite many of them not making major moves to cover major holes. Why not just try your luck and again, check out the discounted guys at the end of the year?

 

[MikeK]

Trades are harder to make every year now. I see 2 huge factors as the reason. One is the fact that we now have a cap and most teams are close to it every season. Teams now have to trade dollar for dollar and this leaves little room for error. Second factor for me is the fact that we now live in a very public(Nothing is ever private anymore) type of world. It is so much harder to work the phones because you have everything being made public. GM's are so afraid of looking like idots then ever before. GM's are still trying to make the best deal but I feel as though they are now trying to not look stupid in the process and this makes it even harder to make deals.

 

[LiquidSnake]

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/...arelli-hard-as-ever-to-make-trades-right-now/
Chiarelli. Cup winning GM

“It’s as hard as its ever been or harder because of all these teams that are still in it,†said Chiarelli. “Teams feel like they only need to win three games and they’re back in it…and they are because of the condensed schedule.â€

Does he sound like Nonis too?