Why is it so Hard to Make a Trade?

[King of the ES*]

Hearing Gillis on the radio this morning go on and on about how hard it is to make a trade, as he so often does, motivated me to start this thread. This has actually bothered me for a long time (possibly because I earn a living as a trader).

How can it possibly be that difficult to make a trade?

There are 30 teams, all in different phases, with different strengths, weaknesses, needs, and assets. I just don't buy for a second that it's "so hard" to make trades in the NHL. Cap compliance is mostly elementary stuff. What are the other barriers?

IMO, there are mostly no trades in the NHL because you've got 30 gun-shy GMs who's first interest is in keeping their seven-figure jobs for as long as they can. A single, costly mistake can rid them of that position pretty quickly - just ask Dale Tallon. So the effect is that you've got the Canucks with two goalies on their roster, each of whom should be starting, since roughly 2011, and that's not at all the league's only example of poor roster fit.

You've then got each GMs ego to satisfy. You can be sure that they never want to be the one making the first call.

So you've got guys who badly don't want to make a mistake, and you've got guys with ego's who don't ever want to appear bargaining from a position of weakness. And this leads to no activity at all in the NHL, which, to me, makes absolutely no sense.

Anyone else agree/not buy the "it's so hard to make a trade" excuse fed to us by MG?

Click to read more...

 

[Ryp37]

Cause our trading options are limited?

 

[Verviticus]

uh

you just made a bunch of points as to why there are no trades, and then concluded that your previous points were wrong?

Anyone else agree/not buy the "it's so hard to make a trade" excuse fed to us by MG?

no, you're the only one i hope

 

[Alan Jackson]

It sounds like the exact same thing that Dave Nonis used to say before the end.

I'd imagine it's certainly difficult to make a trade when you refuse to give up anything of value - these other GM's want to improve their teams, too. They're not just going to give us players for the hell of it.

 

[stickside]

cuz players have no movement/trade clauses?

 

[Verviticus]

It sounds like the exact same thing that Dave Nonis used to say before the end.

I'd imagine it's certainly difficult to make a trade when you refuse to give up anything of value - these other GM's want to improve their teams, too. They're not just going to give us players for the hell of it.

this is crazy. if EHM 2007 taught me anything, it's that every GM wants to trade every player if you add enough unsigned prospects

 

[Angry Little Elf]

To get, you have to give, as simple as that. Trading is a hard process.

 

[opendoor]

It sounds like the exact same thing that Dave Nonis used to say before the end.

I'd imagine it's certainly difficult to make a trade when you refuse to give up anything of value - these other GM's want to improve their teams, too. They're not just going to give us players for the hell of it.

Pretty much every GM is saying it right now though. The shortened season and declining cap are definitely issues that aren't normally part of the NHL landscape and both things make movement a little tougher because it throws things off balance.

 

[Pseudonymous*]

Wouldn't a shortened season make for more moves given that more teams are in contention and a move might be the thing to put them over the edge?

 

[serge2k]

Gillis has just realized he needs a convenient way to shift blame when he makes a stupid trade. With hodgson he got away with blaming him. Won't work for a veteran.

 

[opendoor]

Wouldn't a shortened season make for more moves given that more teams are in contention and a move might be the thing to put them over the edge?

Less balance between buyers and sellers though. No one wants to trade roster players away because almost every team in the league thinks they're still in the hunt for a playoff spot.

 

[Canuxx]

I respectfully disagree...

I agree that salary cap is a minor issue that is easily managed however, the exact reasons you state "why trading is not hard" is the exact reasons why trading is difficult.

-Ego (difficult to manage)
-Unwillingness to make big moves in fear of loosing job (difficult to manage)
-Over valuing/undervaluing players (difficult to manage)

Realistically, GM's are juggling many different things when making a trade. Just like when we are indecisive about big purchases (ie. cars and houses), you only have one shot to get it right.

As a day trader, I assume you are not risk averse relative to most people. You probably don't question your decisions as much as the majority because it's not in your nature. In understanding this issue, you cannot down play the significance of the human condition.

In fear of making "the wrong" decision, GM's often don't make trades because it's the most logical thing to do (for themselves). There are no "redo's" or "take-backs," and that is what makes GM's so tentative to make deals.

 

[Pseudonymous*]

Less balance between buyers and sellers though. No one wants to trade roster players away because almost every team in the league thinks they're still in the hunt for a playoff spot.

Yeah thats true. Alot of the trades are unloading because one team is out of contention. and doesn't have to worry about now. Two teams thinking about now, does make it a tad tougher.

 

[Wisp]

Your skepticism is silly and is just really just a mask for impatience.

You see any trades happening around the league for significant roster players? That's because there hasn't been any. If it was great trading environment we'd see more of it.

 

[mossey3535]

In addition to all the points you mentioned which I guess unwittingly undermine your own argument, the special circumstances of this year with the shortened schedule, almost all the teams in contention, and the cap going down to $64M and thus making cap management not so elementary are making it hard to make trades.

Another factor - teams got a good look at their minor league prospects this year and as such I feel more are giving them a chance this year, whereas in other years they might be more likely to make a trade to fill that spot.

 

[CanucksSayEh]

More may be lost by indecision than wrong.

 

[Jay Cee]

The cap is a huge issue, no two ways about it.

Many teams have a very poorly managed cap situation because they paid more for players than they should and now the cap is going down. It doesn't give teams much flexibility to make a deal, and the guys who did not work out and got their big payday are untradeable.

 

[Tiranis]

In addition to everything else mentioned — every GM is looking for the best deal possible and are talking to all 30 GMs most of the time. Let's say you're shopping one of your players and one GM offers you a decent deal. Then a second one comes around and starts a discussion about a better deal. A few weeks later, that discussion doesn't go anywhere but in the meantime the team you were talking to originally has had something happen (trade, injury, spurt of good play) and now the first GM doesn't want to make a deal. Now you've lost both deals you had on the table.

 

[stickside]

to sum up all the reasons....

everything has to fall into place

 

[LolClarkson*]

Your skepticism is silly and is just really just a mask for impatience.

You see any trades happening around the league for significant roster players? That's because there hasn't been any. If it was great trading environment we'd see more of it.

Its because of the point system.

Too many teams think they are in it. Take the regulation time point away and we have more trades.

 

[Eddy Punch Clock]

In addition to all the points you mentioned which I guess unwittingly undermine your own argument, the special circumstances of this year with the shortened schedule, almost all the teams in contention, and the cap going down to $64M and thus making cap management not so elementary are making it hard to make trades.

I think this is one of the biggest factors.

And no GM wants to look like a seller while their still in contention. Hard to explain to the season ticket holders I would think... or even the owner who wants that juicy playoff revenue.

 

[Dado]

Hearing Gillis on the radio this morning go on and on about how hard it is to make a trade...

What, he's now channeling Nonis?



Brilliant.

 

[Jay Cee]

I think the Canucks are in a particularly bad situation because they don't have much to move of value. So when Gillis picks up the phone and wants to get a deal done, obviously the GM on the other end says "Ok Jensen" and it doesn't get anywhere.

That's my theory anyway

 

[PG Canuck]

GM's around the league have said themselves it's hard to make a trade right now because the prices are through the roof.

 

[Dado]

I though prospect depth was supposed to be one of the Gillis-era strengths.