Why is it so Hard to Make a Trade?

[Fat Tony]

For the record, I don't want Gillis to be a buyer in the next few days. But I think the "Detroit model" without a Hall of Famer in the lineup is really more of a "St. Louis model". Make the playoffs for 20+ years consecutively but never really amount to anything substantive.

 

[Bleach Clean]

For the record, I don't want Gillis to be a buyer in the next few days. But I think the "Detroit model" without a Hall of Famer in the lineup is really more of a "St. Louis model". Make the playoffs for 20+ years consecutively but never really amount to anything substantive.

Ah I see where you're going. Also known as the San Jose model. There is a possibility that this occurs. But most of the damage done by these non-cup-winning squads came in an era without a cap. Where the best teams where just a bit better than the best STL or SJ could offer. Now, with parity and the salary cap in play, the odds favour closing that gap.

Now is the best time to employ such a strategy.

And just as a point of note, STL had Pronger and MacInnis manning their blueline. No slouches themselves.

 

[Bleach Clean]

I think you're completely mixing up 'The Detroit Model' and the idea of not 'Loading Up'. The two concepts are not the same.

I think the idea of not going 'all in' on a given playoff year is a valid one. That is definitely how teams can wreck their future in a heartbeat.

But that 'Detroit Model' is about an awful lot more than that. It's about 'over-ripening' prospects, filling all the major holes from within, stability and consistency, first rate development, etc etc etc., and it relies extremely heavily on finding gems in the later rounds.

And arguably...relies heavily on having a HOF blueliner hiding some of the problems.


I'm all for not going 'all in' with rentals, etc. for a push this year. Building the organization from within. Building something that is sustainable and can compete for a few years. But i think the 'Detroit Model' of contending for a decade is a crock, and it ultimately comes down to having Lidstrom on your roster, and a pair of late-round gems who turned into elite forwards in Datsyuk+Zetterberg. Outside that...they're just like every other team, filling in spots with depth from within with very mixed results, or trying to find external options via UFA and Trade...and they're a significantly weaker team now than they were last year.

And as far as the Canucks are concerned...The Sedins are our guys. If we don't get a cup win done while they are here...we are going to have some heavy duty re-tooling to do. Not a top-to-bottom gutting of the organization...but we're going to be missing a 1st line. Jensen is the ONLY prospect currently in our organization with that sort of upside...How long will the Sedins really hold out as top-tier 1st liners? That's our 'Window'.

They're a weaker team, they just lost Lidstrom. No argument there. However, they are still a playoff team one spot away from where they were last year. So while it hurt them, they found a way to continue.

If I am to understand you right, you are saying that a re-tooling isn't possible, or unlikely. That we have to replace the Sedins with two elite players. Correct? If so, this is where we disagree. We don't need to replace them with elite players, nor with even the same type of players. "Only" 1st liners, and they can be of a different variety.

Are we at least in agreement that VAN should be able to fill out it's 2nd line? Or will that be an issue as well?

Kesler is already a 1st liner. So that's 1 of 3. Next, I believe Jensen and Kassian have 1st line upside. And...wait for it, even Schroeder. JS can be the compliment to a 1st line down the road. He has the skill. Some development necessary though. So they need one more key piece from FA/Draft/Trade to "finish" a 1st line. Is it an elite 1st line? Probably not. But it's a 1st line that if backed by good depth, could be enough just like STL's 1st line is enough. Even on a team like LA, their "legit" 1st liner/elite talent is Kopitar. Everyone else has shuffled from 1st line to 2nd line throughout their careers. That's one player.

There are many ways to build a competitive team.

 

[biturbo19]

They're a weaker team, they just lost Lidstrom. No argument there. However, they are still a playoff team one spot away from where they were last year. So while it hurt them, they found a way to continue.

If I am to understand you right, you are saying that a re-tooling isn't possible, or unlikely. That we have to replace the Sedins with two elite players. Correct? If so, this is where we disagree. We don't need to replace them with elite players, nor with even the same type of players. "Only" 1st liners, and they can be of a different variety.

Are we at least in agreement that VAN should be able to fill out it's 2nd line? Or will that be an issue as well?

Kesler is already a 1st liner. So that's 1 of 3. Next, I believe Jensen and Kassian have 1st line upside. And...wait for it, even Schroeder. JS can be the compliment to a 1st line down the road. He has the skill. Some development necessary though. So they need one more key piece from FA/Draft/Trade to "finish" a 1st line. Is it an elite 1st line? Probably not. But it's a 1st line that if backed by good depth, could be enough just like STL's 1st line is enough. Even on a team like LA, their "legit" 1st liner/elite talent is Kopitar. Everyone else has shuffled from 1st line to 2nd line throughout their careers. That's one player.

There are many ways to build a competitive team.

I guess that's where our viewpoints differ.

To me, Kesler is a 2nd liner. A very good one, but he's a 2nd line Center...i just don't see the extra potential to break through as a true #1C. As a winger though...you may have a point. He could be a 1st line winger.

The prospects Jensen/Kassian, yeah, you can argue either way. I don't see it with Kassian and Jensen is a long ways from a sure thing as a 1st line winger. You can 'season' him in the AHL all you want...but i'm really not sure that changes his 'upside'. It's not a bad thing for him and his development...but short of pulling a Columbus and ruining prospects...i think largely, guys are going to be what they're going to be. You're not changing the upside of a player with extra development time...you're just minimizing the 'bust' factor.

But when you start bringing teams like LA and STL into the discussion...that's exactly what i'm saying. Those are both teams who dwelled in the cellar for a while to accumulate the talent they have now.

That's what 'window' means to me. It means at some point...you lose an entire 1st line, and you're going to feel it. The way teams 'replace' that talent, is by drafting fairly high. This nonsense about Detroit somehow defying the league-wide trend by allegedly drafting and developing 'better' than everyone else...is a myth.

The Red Wings are just like every other team. They're well run and doing everything they can to keep up. They're treading water now...but it's far from the invincible juggernaut people made it out to be. They're only human...and now they've got a #1D to replace and it shows...as their '1st line' retires/declines in Datsyuk and Zetterberg...it's going to be an awfully difficult task to replace. And they're going to be in the same boat as most teams...hoping that either a)their prospects pan out in a big way, or b)sifting through FA or trade scenarios to fix the holes.

 

[Bleach Clean]

I guess that's where our viewpoints differ.

To me, Kesler is a 2nd liner. A very good one, but he's a 2nd line Center...i just don't see the extra potential to break through as a true #1C. As a winger though...you may have a point. He could be a 1st line winger.

We at least agree that he can be a 1st line Wing.

Do you consider Kopitar a 1C? Richards/Carter/Backes/Bergeron/Krejci? Most of these guys have two seasons at 60~ and 1 at a PPG~. Kesler has 2 at 70~ and 1 at 60~ I believe. He could fit into that 2nd grouping, but is a shade below Kopitar I think.

The prospects Jensen/Kassian, yeah, you can argue either way. I don't see it with Kassian and Jensen is a long ways from a sure thing as a 1st line winger. You can 'season' him in the AHL all you want...but i'm really not sure that changes his 'upside'. It's not a bad thing for him and his development...but short of pulling a Columbus and ruining prospects...i think largely, guys are going to be what they're going to be. You're not changing the upside of a player with extra development time...you're just minimizing the 'bust' factor.

I think the upside of both is as 1st liners (Schroeder too because he has the skill). Whether they get there is another matter. But the upside is there. All I'm saying. You need 1 of those guys to "make it", then it works.

But when you start bringing teams like LA and STL into the discussion...that's exactly what i'm saying. Those are both teams who dwelled in the cellar for a while to accumulate the talent they have now.

That's what 'window' means to me. It means at some point...you lose an entire 1st line, and you're going to feel it. The way teams 'replace' that talent, is by drafting fairly high. This nonsense about Detroit somehow defying the league-wide trend by allegedly drafting and developing 'better' than everyone else...is a myth.

The Red Wings are just like every other team. They're well run and doing everything they can to keep up. They're treading water now...but it's far from the invincible juggernaut people made it out to be. They're only human...and now they've got a #1D to replace and it shows...as their '1st line' retires/declines in Datsyuk and Zetterberg...it's going to be an awfully difficult task to replace. And they're going to be in the same boat as most teams...hoping that either a)their prospects pan out in a big way, or b)sifting through FA or trade scenarios to fix the holes.

STL and LA dwelled in the cellar, but the key point is the absence of elite talent of the Sedin level. STL drafted the majority of their top6ers in the late 1st. LA had Brown and Kopitar at 13 and 11 respectively. Not true "tank" picks.

DET isn't defying a trend so much as they keep a balance of future/present even when they are "contending". And they know how to make value picks wherever they draft. No secret technique, just true balance in approach.

It's not easy replacing Datsyuk and Zetterberg. Those are two elite talents in the league. Just like the Sedins. What I'm trying to impress upon you is that you don't "need" to replace them. They just need to cultivate two 1st liners. They likely won't be on the same level, but that's ok because you don't require "elite" to compete, just 1st liners. Sure, there is a downgrade. However, we see with teams like STL and LA, that how the pieces fit together can be just as important as two guys driving the bus. Hell, even BOS forwards weren't considered elite before they won the cup. People were pointing at their 60~max totals and saying that they lacked high end talent. Turns out, it wasn't required. Same thing with LA (save Kopitar).

Let's put this another way: Right now, the call is for more secondary scoring to supplement the twins. It's either missing, or failing to deliver. Let's fast forward into the future and say at least Jensen+Schroeder are able to produce at a top6 level. Not 1st line, but top6. But at this point, the Sedins are average 1st liners, no longer "elite". Which team is stronger? The one that was constantly missing secondary scoring, or the one with secondary scoring, but with a more marginal Sedins? Because that latter team is the Bruins, essentially. Lower end 1st line with much better depth overall.

 

[King of the ES*]

I'm all for not going 'all in' with rentals, etc. for a push this year. Building the organization from within. Building something that is sustainable and can compete for a few years. But i think the 'Detroit Model' of contending for a decade is a crock, and it ultimately comes down to having Lidstrom on your roster, and a pair of late-round gems who turned into elite forwards in Datsyuk+Zetterberg. Outside that...they're just like every other team, filling in spots with depth from within with very mixed results, or trying to find external options via UFA and Trade...and they're a significantly weaker team now than they were last year.

And as far as the Canucks are concerned...The Sedins are our guys. If we don't get a cup win done while they are here...we are going to have some heavy duty re-tooling to do. Not a top-to-bottom gutting of the organization...but we're going to be missing a 1st line. Jensen is the ONLY prospect currently in our organization with that sort of upside...How long will the Sedins really hold out as top-tier 1st liners? That's our 'Window'.

These two paragraphs basically contradict eachother.

You don't want to go all-in for "rentals", but it's imperative that we win a Cup for the Sedin's.

Newsflash: the Sedin's ain't getting better. They turn 33 this year. Production is declining for what will be the fourth consecutive season. They're probably not going to be better in 2013-14 than what they are today. Not sure how long you've been following the Canucks for, but Naslund went from 1st line sniper to 3rd line dud very, very quickly and completely. It's pretty dumb to just assume that the Sedin's will be magic forever and ever, and having the "there's always next year" attitude.

We have two elite players, we have excellent goaltending, we have an OK D; if now is not the time to roll the dice a little bit to win the Cup, WHEN IS?!?

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

We have a damn good team, doing well considering how much injury crap we have going on.

I know, I think this is being lost in the injuries.

We have a good forward group, we have one of the better defense cores in the league (atleast on paper) and we have the best goaltending tandem in the league.

This team can beat any team in this league when healthy. We just have 1 hole IMO, 3C. It would also be nice to add another winger but only at a reasonable price, cause I'm fine rolling with Raymond, Hansen, Kassian and Higgins as our 2nd and 3rd line wingers, since we will have Booth coming back later too.

We have two elite players, we have excellent goaltending, we have an OK D; if now is not the time to roll the dice a little bit to win the Cup, WHEN IS?!?

We don't have the assets to sell the farm and go for it. We want to build to have consistent success. And actually Beach Clean made a great point,where he said with the parity in the league, consistently having a good team will give you an opportunity to jump out of nowhere in any given playoff year and win it all. Although risking it all for one do or die year is extremely risky in that if you fail, it will take awhile to build back up to that good level.

 

[King of the ES*]

We don't have the assets to sell the farm and go for it. We want to build to have consistent success. And actually Beach Clean made a great point,where he said with the parity in the league, consistently having a good team will give you an opportunity to jump out of nowhere in any given playoff year and win it all. Although risking it all for one do or die year is extremely risky in that if you fail, it will take awhile to build back up to that good level.

When has that ever happened?

Please don't say LA. They had underachieved all year. That wasn't an 8th seed. Where was LA weak? They weren't. Anywhere.

They also went out and acquired that Jeff Carter guy, remember? Which involved them trading - *GASP* - a member of their core!!

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

When has that ever happened?

Please don't say LA. They had underachieved all year. That wasn't an 8th seed. Where was LA weak? They weren't. Anywhere.

They also went out and acquired that Jeff Carter guy, remember? Which involved them trading - *GASP* - a member of their core!!

What I am saying is, you don't have to risk it all and be the odds on favorite in this day and age, so many teams are good and there is so much enforced parity, that if you cna maintain a good roster like we have now you have a good opportunity.

Like look, NJD wasn't a top favorite.

Niether was LA, yeah they had a good roster, but so do we, they weren't the top favorite.

Boston wasn't a top favorite, Nor was Philly when they made the finals.

Like you don't have to sell the farm to have a good chance at the cup in the cap era. If can maintain a team at the level we have now (which is a really good team) I think we will have a good opportunity to win the cup in any given year without having to sell the farm.

 

[The Bob Cole]

Why is it hard to make a trade?

I suggest you look at LeBrun's most recent article. Seems to be some ill-will between Nonis/Gillis (mostly from the Toronto side) that perhaps have cooled the talks the two teams had earlier on.

All talk between the two teams was indirectly, up until this past week.


Remember, these are humans, not some computer in your video game. There are ego's at play here. You think Boston and Calgary will be making a trade any time soon now? While perhaps it makes sense rationally, these are still human beings, prone to errors in judgement.

 

[MikeK]

Why is it so hard to make a trade? My guess is that GM's don't drink as much as they did in the 90's. lol

 

[me2]

Why is it so hard to make a trade? My guess is that GM's don't drink as much as they did in the 90's. lol

More moves will come at the deadline. Still relatively early, hopefully Pittsburgh has frightened a few buyers out of the market.

 

[me2]

On the other hand, we have a number of players signed for considerably less than they'd get on the open market.

Speaking of the open market - even $13 million in cap space wouldn't get you 2 Iginla's these days. None of the top players hit the open market unless they are looking to move to a specific team like Suter and Parise. Probably the best you can do in free agency is to toss $7+ million at a Semin like player with some question marks.

As for the Penguins - their success is largely due to 5 straight top 5 picks as well as some excellent drafting 8-9 years ago. Their draft record in the last few years is okay, but nothing spectacular. They've made some good trades, but have had the assets to make the trades due to the drafts from the mid-2000s.

If the Perry Getzlaf model of salaries becomes the norm $8.5m+ for stars we are going to see more opportunity for teams without stars to win cups. Put it this way, if Chicago's players needed re-signing at Anaheim prices they would need $40+m to Keith, Toews, Kane, Seabrook and Hossa.

This means B stars and quality plugs will be cheaper. Teams will be able to be built around great cheap depth just make sure you have a great goalie though. So being able to spend to the cap on depth will help compensate for lack of elite drafted players.

 

[Pip]

Teams that have some solid prospects can afford to sell some pieces of the farm for rentals, going "all in" is incredibly stupid because of how much luck you need to win the cup that no team is assured The Cup. We do not have a good enough pool of prospects to be selling it away for rentals.

 

[Tobi Wan Kenobi]

Why is it so hard to make a trade? My guess is that GM's don't drink as much as they did in the 90's. lol

lol I wonder if that's ever happened in the major sports. A GM was wasted and made a trade only to wake up the next morning "WTF happened last night?" (Waddles to the sink to get water)