Speculation: Who will we draft with #4? Part III

[Commander Clueless]

Me want Hanifin.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

I had a dream last night that we drafted Strome and Werenski. Depressed when I woke up

I haven't seem much of Werenski, maybe 2-3 games max, but I'll take it!


Now let's go Leafs, make that a reality.

 

[rdawg1234]

There are many proven 1st. liners who are not a Kessel like player.



But certainly, Kessel is worth a top 10 pick, however I doubt he's worth a top 10 pick to every team that has one. He's a 100 foot player, just very good in those 100 feet. You don't win with 100 foot players, unless you have a great supporting cast rendering that player as a complimentary / support player.

I.e like Nashville, great defensively, needs a gamebreaking star.

you can't ignore Kessel's 20 points in 21 playoff games, that's extremely useful to teams, he brings it in major games.

 

[BlueBaron]

There are many proven 1st. liners who are not a Kessel like player.



But certainly, Kessel is worth a top 10 pick, however I doubt he's worth a top 10 pick to every team that has one. He's a 100 foot player, just very good in those 100 feet. You don't win with 100 foot players, unless you have a great supporting cast rendering that player as a complimentary / support player.

I'm thinking you are reading things into my posts I am not stating. Yes there are many first liners not as talented as Kessel ? Not sure what the point is ???

Yes I agree he has a different value to every team, that is what I meant by
Obviously it is all very fluid and relative to the needs and situation of a given team but the basics of what I said stand.

I guess you are agreeing with me ?

 

[FlareKnight]

I had a dream last night that we drafted Strome and Werenski. Depressed when I woke up

I haven't seem much of Werenski, maybe 2-3 games max, but I'll take it!


Now let's go Leafs, make that a reality.

We'll have to wait and see if you have the power of prophecy .

 

[HellasLEAF]

Personally hope we don't take Hanifin. Or that Zona takes him.

I feel his offensive ceiling to be in question and I don't trust the NCAA as a means of determining skill level. And one too many mentions of Provorov or Werenski potentially being better one day. If you look through past drafts of defenders that go top 3 or top 5, many times years later turns out they went too high. Not saying will be the case here, but it might.

I've gotten cold feet on Strome as well although wouldn't mind one bit if we take a chance on him.

Marner for me.

 

[Stephen]

Personally hope we don't take Hanifin. Or that Zona takes him.

I feel his offensive ceiling to be in question and I don't trust the NCAA as a means of determining skill level. And one too many mentions of Provorov or Werenski potentially being better one day. If you look through past drafts of defenders that go top 3 or top 5, many times years later turns out they went too high. Not saying will be the case here, but it might.

I've gotten cold feet on Strome as well although wouldn't mind one bit if we take a chance on him.

Marner for me.

Hanifin just seems like a stud defenseman you need to have in your program, so if it's him, I'd be more than happy with that. That said, there's something classic about having a Giroux style center too, so there's that too.

Less interested in Strome these days, I just want an athlete who has that explosiveness to his game.

 

[FlareKnight]

Personally hope we don't take Hanifin. Or that Zona takes him.

I feel his offensive ceiling to be in question and I don't trust the NCAA as a means of determining skill level. And one too many mentions of Provorov or Werenski potentially being better one day. If you look through past drafts of defenders that go top 3 or top 5, many times years later turns out they went too high. Not saying will be the case here, but it might.

I've gotten cold feet on Strome as well although wouldn't mind one bit if we take a chance on him.

Marner for me.

Oddly I'm at the opposite point right now where I'd hope more we manage to grab Hanifin. I think the offense is good and all the other tools added in makes him an exciting guy to draft. Would be a huge step forward for our blueline turning into a legitimate strength. Other than Craig Button has anyone actually ranked a d-man ahead of Hanifin leading up to this draft?

Busts and guys taken too high can happen no matter the position. I don't think that's a reason to get scared of drafting defense.

I'm good with any of Hanifin/Strome/Marner, and could even be ok with Barzal if the Leafs feel that strongly about him. So if we go forward I am more than ok with that, but I'd also pretty happy to walk out of the top 5 part of the draft with Hanifin.

 

[Muston Atthews]

I hope we get Hanifin

 

[leafsfan5]

just hoping Strome goes 3rd. Give me either Hanifin or Marner

 

[TheOtherSide]

just hoping Strome goes 3rd. Give me either Hanifin or Marner

Careful what you wish for...our team may just have Crouse rated 2nd after Strome!

 

[Sonny21]

Oddly I'm at the opposite point right now where I'd hope more we manage to grab Hanifin. I think the offense is good and all the other tools added in makes him an exciting guy to draft. Would be a huge step forward for our blueline turning into a legitimate strength. Other than Craig Button has anyone actually ranked a d-man ahead of Hanifin leading up to this draft?

Busts and guys taken too high can happen no matter the position. I don't think that's a reason to get scared of drafting defense.

I'm good with any of Hanifin/Strome/Marner, and could even be ok with Barzal if the Leafs feel that strongly about him. So if we go forward I am more than ok with that, but I'd also pretty happy to walk out of the top 5 part of the draft with Hanifin.

Feel same way overall. Really want Hanifin, as I feel he can be a foundational piece we don't have (no disrespect to Rielly or Nylander).

Saying that though, I would be happy with any 4 combination of Hanifin/Strome/Marner/Barzal.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Feel same way overall. Really want Hanifin, as I feel he can be a foundational piece we don't have (no disrespect to Rielly or Nylander).

Saying that though, I would be happy with any 4 combination of Hanifin/Strome/Marner/Barzal.

They would all be considered t I think. They're all part of "the new core".

 

[LeafGrief]

Really hoping for Marner or Hanafin, but I will be happy with whoever we pick, even if it's Strome, Barzal, or even Crouse.

 

[Sittler 27]

just hoping Strome goes 3rd. Give me either Hanifin or Marner

Hoping for the same, good with either of them

 

[Stephen]

If we get Hanifin, we may not have to draft another defenseman in the first round for a long, long time. Rielly, Hanifin, Gardiner, and maybe one or two of Loov, Percy, Finn, Granberg, one or two savvy veteran adds and that blueline is basically built for the next decade.

At that point we can be adding forwards of any shape or size or style up front while a young maturing blueline leads the charge. There will still be time for players like Matthews, Puljujarvi, Laine, Brown, Steel, Tkachuk, Benson, McLeod, etc. to be added.

 

[The_Chosen_One]

Oddly I'm at the opposite point right now where I'd hope more we manage to grab Hanifin. I think the offense is good and all the other tools added in makes him an exciting guy to draft. Would be a huge step forward for our blueline turning into a legitimate strength. Other than Craig Button has anyone actually ranked a d-man ahead of Hanifin leading up to this draft?

Busts and guys taken too high can happen no matter the position. I don't think that's a reason to get scared of drafting defense.

I'm good with any of Hanifin/Strome/Marner, and could even be ok with Barzal if the Leafs feel that strongly about him. So if we go forward I am more than ok with that, but I'd also pretty happy to walk out of the top 5 part of the draft with Hanifin.

Hanifin - unlike J-Bo - actually possesses a cannon of a shot and is a legitimate QB. He forces deflections and rebounds not to mention he can effortlessly move along the blue line.

We really need to stop thinking of him as a Gonchar since he thinks the game a lot like Lidstrom. For that reason, Arizona will most likely select him but he's at 4, he's ours.

 

[Semantics]

Disagree with everything in this post. I'm sure the average fan would take their chance with a top 10 pick over Mantha. You'd have a better argument asking them to pick 20th this year vs Mantha. Then it comes down to how much you know prospects.

And I'm sure the average fan would jump at the chance at 2 of Hanifin, Marner and Strome. We're rebuilding. It's pretty obvious that this core is a massive failure.

I think you've given the average fan too little credit here, and yourself 0.274 too much.

If anything I've given the average fan too much credit. Most fans don't even know who Hanifin is, and they might have heard of Marner and Strome because they're Toronto natives, but have probably never seen either play. And the average fan definitely doesn't know anything about Mantha, but many would assume he's equivalent to a top 10 pick because he was #20 by Detroit and has size.

Once you've been around for as long as me you'll realize just how little the average fan actually knows.

 

[91Kadri91*]

if anything i've given the average fan too much credit. Most fans don't even know who hanifin is, and they might have heard of marner and strome because they're toronto natives, but have probably never seen either play. And the average fan definitely doesn't know anything about mantha, but many would assume he's equivalent to a top 10 pick because he was #20 by detroit and has size.

Once you've been around for as long as me you'll realize just how little the average fan actually knows.

qft.

 

[FlareKnight]

Hanifin - unlike J-Bo - actually possesses a cannon of a shot and is a legitimate QB. He forces deflections and rebounds not to mention he can effortlessly move along the blue line.

We really need to stop thinking of him as a Gonchar since he thinks the game a lot like Lidstrom. For that reason, Arizona will most likely select him but he's at 4, he's ours.

Well I hadn't started thinking of him as a Gonchar, but will be extra sure not to now .

Good way to describe why he's such a great option to select though. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him go 3rd and us having the entertaining but perhaps dangerous decision of picking amongst the forwards. It could get ugly on here for those few minutes between picks .

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

If we get Hanifin, we may not have to draft another defenseman in the first round for a long, long time. Rielly, Hanifin, Gardiner, and maybe one or two of Loov, Percy, Finn, Granberg, one or two savvy veteran adds and that blueline is basically built for the next decade.

At that point we can be adding forwards of any shape or size or style up front while a young maturing blueline leads the charge. There will still be time for players like Matthews, Puljujarvi, Laine, Brown, Steel, Tkachuk, Benson, McLeod, etc. to be added.

Gardiner's name doesn't belong among the other two and you're forgetting about Valiev, who's probably our best defensive prospect atm.

Not to mention Toronto'll be adding Brent Seabrook at this time next year

 

[Semantics]

A team that needs a Kessel will most certainly trade any first rounder + for him (with the exception of generational talents) because they know what they are getting (more or less).

I highly doubt that, with a high first rounder they could get someone better than Kessel, or rather someone similarly good for way less than a high 1st. A player like Eric Staal, for example, would come much cheaper, and there are usually players like Jason Spezza available for a modest price in the off season due to their cap hit.

Players like Strome, Hanifin, Marner, and even Crouse, Barzal, Provorov, and so on are as close as you can get to a sure fire 2nd line NHL player. The majority will be first line players, and a couple will probably be superstars. 28 year old Kessel and his huge contract for an 18 year old who'll be a 1st liner? Easy decision.

If you can get an 18 year old who's a near guaranteed first line player for a Kessel whose career is more than half over and has an enormous cap hit it's a no brainer. Sure there's a small chance the player doesn't pan to a 1st liner, say 20%, but it's a low enough chance that it's foolish not to take the risk. If you think that's too much of a risk to take, why not simply trade our 4th for some other team's "Kessel" too? We could probably get ROR for it, for instance.

Heck just look at the original Kessel trade, we got a 22 year old Kessel for two 1sts that many expected to be out of the top 10. If Boston had known one of them would be #2 overall they'd have taken that one pick straight up.

In a NORMAL draft I would be more inclined to agree with your point. In a normal draft maybe one of the players in the top five is a semi-bust like Gudbranson or Yakupov, though in our situation I'd still take the 80% shot at a 1st liner over an old/expensive Kessel. Maybe in a weaker draft I don't trade Kessel if it's only a #6-10 pick, as only a couple of those players could amount to anything, but even an 18 year old who tops out as a good 2nd liner would be worth as much as old/expensive Kessel, so I'd have to think about it and analyze past drafts. If you offered me an 18 year old Kadri for old/expensive Kessel, for example, it's still a no brainer, even though Kadri will never be as good as Kessel those extra years and cost certainty are well worth the price of a Kessel whose best years are far behind him.

 

[Semantics]

Also I don't know why people talk about Kessel like he's a 40 goal or 80 point type player. He's only an 80 point player when his entire line is allowed to constantly cheat on offense. On any good team, where he's required to play properly, he's about a 70 point player. And he's never hit 40 goals in his career, he did go on pace for 42 in his early 20s but most goal scorers hit their career high around then. At this point in his career he's a 30-30-60 or 35-35-70 guy on a good team when playing properly. That's good, certainly he's a star player, but by no means is he a franchise player, and at 28 he's only got a handful of good years left.

 

[LaPlante94]

I had a dream last night that we drafted Strome and Werenski. Depressed when I woke up

I haven't seem much of Werenski, maybe 2-3 games max, but I'll take it!


Now let's go Leafs, make that a reality.

I thought you wanted Marner?

 

[dballislife2]

i really want hanifin...u gotta prevent goals to win in the nhl...dion rielly and hanifin is a good start