Speculation: Who will we draft with #4? Part III

[The_Chosen_One]

Also I don't know why people talk about Kessel like he's a 40 goal or 80 point type player. He's only an 80 point player when his entire line is allowed to constantly cheat on offense. On any good team, where he's required to play properly, he's about a 70 point player. And he's never hit 40 goals in his career, he did go on pace for 42 in his early 20s but most goal scorers hit their career high around then. At this point in his career he's a 30-30-60 or 35-35-70 guy on a good team when playing properly. That's good, certainly he's a star player, but by no means is he a franchise player, and at 28 he's only got a handful of good years left.

That's not how Kessel played during his 2011-12 season. Remember, Lupul isn't really the type of skater suitable to play a counter attack game. In fact, Wilson prefers a four line, forechecking, D-pinching format so there's no way he could "cheat" for offence. Carlyle's defensive-oriented "swarming" system was predicated on the bottom 9 surrendering possession in order to maximise scoring opportunities for the top line.

Besides that, Kessel has previously thrived in the structured, tight-checking and short, possession-heavy passing system of Boston. Moreover, during the Olympics his centreman Pavelski always likes to slow things down. Speed was never part of his game. Shiftiness and working in traffic is his bread and butter. Interestingly, Kessel didn't seem anything less than elite.

 

[Jerkini]

Also I don't know why people talk about Kessel like he's a 40 goal or 80 point type player. He's only an 80 point player when his entire line is allowed to constantly cheat on offense. On any good team, where he's required to play properly, he's about a 70 point player. And he's never hit 40 goals in his career, he did go on pace for 42 in his early 20s but most goal scorers hit their career high around then. At this point in his career he's a 30-30-60 or 35-35-70 guy on a good team when playing properly. That's good, certainly he's a star player, but by no means is he a franchise player, and at 28 he's only got a handful of good years left.

I don't really buy this. He scores when he's playing big games for Team USA. The fact is he puts up points regardless of the team or role he's given. To clarify, the 80-point player comment.

 

[KGL]

I'm Team Marner (ATM) but these are some interesting points...

 

[burpsalot]

I highly doubt that, with a high first rounder they could get someone better than Kessel, or rather someone similarly good for way less than a high 1st. A player like Eric Staal, for example, would come much cheaper, and there are usually players like Jason Spezza available for a modest price in the off season due to their cap hit.

Players like Strome, Hanifin, Marner, and even Crouse, Barzal, Provorov, and so on are as close as you can get to a sure fire 2nd line NHL player. The majority will be first line players, and a couple will probably be superstars. 28 year old Kessel and his huge contract for an 18 year old who'll be a 1st liner? Easy decision.

If you can get an 18 year old who's a near guaranteed first line player for a Kessel whose career is more than half over and has an enormous cap hit it's a no brainer. Sure there's a small chance the player doesn't pan to a 1st liner, say 20%, but it's a low enough chance that it's foolish not to take the risk. If you think that's too much of a risk to take, why not simply trade our 4th for some other team's "Kessel" too? We could probably get ROR for it, for instance.

Heck just look at the original Kessel trade, we got a 22 year old Kessel for two 1sts that many expected to be out of the top 10. If Boston had known one of them would be #2 overall they'd have taken that one pick straight up.

In a NORMAL draft I would be more inclined to agree with your point. In a normal draft maybe one of the players in the top five is a semi-bust like Gudbranson or Yakupov, though in our situation I'd still take the 80% shot at a 1st liner over an old/expensive Kessel. Maybe in a weaker draft I don't trade Kessel if it's only a #6-10 pick, as only a couple of those players could amount to anything, but even an 18 year old who tops out as a good 2nd liner would be worth as much as old/expensive Kessel, so I'd have to think about it and analyze past drafts. If you offered me an 18 year old Kadri for old/expensive Kessel, for example, it's still a no brainer, even though Kadri will never be as good as Kessel those extra years and cost certainty are well worth the price of a Kessel whose best years are far behind him.

If you see Kessel, as a playoff goal every two games player, as the difference maker in potentially winning the Stanley Cup or not, you trade away your first round pick for him. Stanley Cup now wins out.

The saving grace for the Stanley Cup team is their 1st round pick is normally pretty late or last if they win. They are normally pretty close to the salary cap as well, so help there can add even more to a potential trade partner.

Rangers gave a away a bit of their future for Yandle but with Nash in a bit of a drought, St Louis at zero & Zuccarello injured maybe they addressed the wrong need. Could adding Kessel have made the difference? The salary cap would be a real issue though.

 

[McMatthews]

I love Mitch Marner as a player but I take Noah Hanifin if he slips past Arizona.

Elite #1 defenceman > Elite winger.

 

[shelf]

Really interesting when you take out Marners first 10 games of the season. Marner had 137 points in his final 60 games including playoffs. 2.28 pts/game. Those are just some crazy numbers. When you consider that McDavid played on a team that scored .6 more goals per game and that McDavid had an extra year of experience in the OHL is Marner really that far off from McDavids 2.54 pts/game?

 

[Menzinger]

I'm Team Marner (ATM) but these are some interesting points...

Very interesting stuff. I think the 'skill gap' between Marner and Strome is a lot closer than many would like to admit.

 

[Mitchy]

597946555421859840[/MEDIA]



I'm Team Marner (ATM) but these are some interesting points...

Marner without Domi also scored at 2.77 ppg (though Domi actually brought the numbers of several of his teammates down), so there's that, but yes Strome is good too.

 

[Stand Witness]

I'm Team Marner (ATM) but these are some interesting points...

That site also has every other stat favouring marner

http://chlstats.pythonanywhere.com/players/

 

[Maplebeasts]

i really want hanifin...u gotta prevent goals to win in the nhl...dion rielly and hanifin is a good start

By the time those two develop Dion will be long gone.

 

[one77]

Hanifin
Marner

Strome

 

[cookie]

If you see Kessel, as a playoff goal every two games player, as the difference maker in potentially winning the Stanley Cup or not, you trade away your first round pick for him. Stanley Cup now wins out.

The saving grace for the Stanley Cup team is their 1st round pick is normally pretty late or last if they win. They are normally pretty close to the salary cap as well, so help there can add even more to a potential trade partner.

Rangers gave a away a bit of their future for Yandle but with Nash in a bit of a drought, St Louis at zero & Zuccarello injured maybe they addressed the wrong need. Could adding Kessel have made the difference? The salary cap would be a real issue though.

Hell, we even have a precedent in the Kaberle to Boston trade. Kessel is much more valuable as Kaberle was visibly slowing down at the time of the trade. Even so, Kaberle netted a first round pick, a guy in Colborne who according to the NHL.com article following the trade remarked that

Colborne was the 16th pick of the 2008 Entry Draft. He spent two seasons at the University of Denver and was one of the top pro prospects in the NCAA while there. Listed at 6-foot-5 and 190 pounds, Colborne has the tools to become a No. 1 NHL center someday, but he's got some filling out to do. He has 12 goals and 26 points in 55 games for AHL Providence in his first full professional season.

Sure salary is an issue, but if you're a team that has visibly underperformed or in need of a piece to take you over the top, Kessel's the man. In this half decade we've had Kessel, he has been the the team's main PP weapon and main offensive forward. Kaberle was acquired to beef up a 14th overall PP and act as another PMD; Kessel has a similar, if not superior skill set at a cap hit that only HFBoard users would complain about.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

I'm Team Marner (ATM) but these are some interesting points...

These "stats" are horrible. QoC is HUGE in the OHL. Want proof? In the 20 games McDavid was gone Strome got 1st line minutes, better line-mates and of course better competition. Stephen Burtch seems to be big on pp/60 which is fine. But lets compare Strome's stats in the 20 games without McDavid to Marner's.

Note: 9 of these 20 games Domi was not playing*

In those 20 games
Marner's GPG: 1.10
Strome's GPG: .70

Marner's APG: 1.25
Strome's APG: .75

So as we can see when Strome isn't playing behind/with one of the best prospects in OHL history his. During that time Marner was involved for 19.7% of London's even strength goal. Strome was in on 10.8% of Erie's even strength goals. So while London and Erie's star players we're gone we can see who really stepped up and lead their respective team. In fact if we're going off this short sample size isn't it fair to say that although Strome has the better shot, Marner is the better goal scorer?

Point wise Marner was involved in 6.3 % of his teams total points Strome 3.6%. It's all fine that Stephen want's to list these stat's but context is key. I can list Marner's total's in the 9 game's without Domi, but it would be redundant as all the numbers I listed would just increase. Strome's numbers are nothing to slouch at, but as we can see Marner's numbers are just better. Add that to all the other things Marner does and it's very clear to me (someone who thinks a 5'11 player can be the best in the league) that Marner will be ours at 4 if he's still available.


Stat's found at: http://www.mckeenshockey.com/lib/Mi...40303&end=5240351&season=2015&league=2&team=0

 

[LaPlante94]

These "stats" are horrible. QoC is HUGE in the OHL. Want proof? In the 20 games McDavid was gone Strome got 1st line minutes, better line-mates and of course better competition. Stephen Burtch seems to be big on pp/60 which is fine. But lets compare Strome's stats in the 20 games without McDavid to Marner's.

Note: 9 of these 20 games Domi was not playing*

In those 20 games
Marner's GPG: 1.10
Strome's GPG: .70

Marner's APG: 1.25
Strome's APG: .75

So as we can see when Strome isn't playing behind/with one of the best prospects in OHL history his. During that time Marner was involved for 19.7% of London's even strength goal. Strome was in on 10.8% of Erie's even strength goals. So while London and Erie's star players we're gone we can see who really stepped up and lead their respective team. In fact if we're going off this short sample size isn't it fair to say that although Strome has the better shot, Marner is the better goal scorer?

Point wise Marner was involved in 6.3 % of his teams total points Strome 3.6%. It's all fine that Stephen want's to list these stat's but context is key. I can list Marner's total's in the 9 game's without Domi, but it would be redundant as all the numbers I listed would just increase. Strome's numbers are nothing to slouch at, but as we can see Marner's numbers are just better. Add that to all the other things Marner does and it's very clear to me (someone who thinks a 5'11 player can be the best in the league) that Marner will be ours at 4 if he's still available.


Stat's found at: http://www.mckeenshockey.com/lib/Mi...40303&end=5240351&season=2015&league=2&team=0

I see 3 Knights players on this list also. #MarnersCarried

 

[Mats13]

These "stats" are horrible. QoC is HUGE in the OHL. Want proof? In the 20 games McDavid was gone Strome got 1st line minutes, better line-mates and of course better competition. Stephen Burtch seems to be big on pp/60 which is fine. But lets compare Strome's stats in the 20 games without McDavid to Marner's.

Note: 9 of these 20 games Domi was not playing*

In those 20 games
Marner's GPG: 1.10
Strome's GPG: .70

Marner's APG: 1.25
Strome's APG: .75

So as we can see when Strome isn't playing behind/with one of the best prospects in OHL history his. During that time Marner was involved for 19.7% of London's even strength goal. Strome was in on 10.8% of Erie's even strength goals. So while London and Erie's star players we're gone we can see who really stepped up and lead their respective team. In fact if we're going off this short sample size isn't it fair to say that although Strome has the better shot, Marner is the better goal scorer?

Point wise Marner was involved in 6.3 % of his teams total points Strome 3.6%. It's all fine that Stephen want's to list these stat's but context is key. I can list Marner's total's in the 9 game's without Domi, but it would be redundant as all the numbers I listed would just increase. Strome's numbers are nothing to slouch at, but as we can see Marner's numbers are just better. Add that to all the other things Marner does and it's very clear to me (someone who thinks a 5'11 player can be the best in the league) that Marner will be ours at 4 if he's still available.


Stat's found at: http://www.mckeenshockey.com/lib/Mi...40303&end=5240351&season=2015&league=2&team=0

This might just be a typo, but I'm pretty sure Strome played 21 games without McDavid. Maybe you're forgetting his last game of the season?

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

I see 3 Knights players on this list also. #MarnersCarried

And there's two Erie Otters. What exactly is your point? I said using data with Domi out would be redundant, but it seems that will be necessary here.

Marner had a 1.0 GPG and a 1.67 APG average. his Tm%ESGF is still higher then Strome's although it does drop. I think this is because with tons of top D men leaving to play in the world juniors scorer's that don't necessarily score as much took advantage of the easier competition thus skewing the data as they scored much more.


http://www.mckeenshockey.com/lib/Mi...40330&end=5240351&season=2015&league=0&team=0

This might just be a typo, but I'm pretty sure Strome played 21 games without McDavid. Maybe you're forgetting his last game of the season?

Ahh yes I am. Unfortunetly the website doesn't have data for the last game of the season.

 

[Magic Man]

Ahh yes I am. Unfortunetly the website doesn't have data for the last game of the season.

Conveniently that was Strome's most productive game in the OHL.

 

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

HFboarder Brock (scout here who releases his rankings annually, respected around these parts), had this to say about Marner vs Strome:

Brock Otten
March 23, 2015 at 4:40 PM

It's so close, but I prefer Marner.*

Strome's hands and hockey sense are incredibly good. He makes something out of nothing and elevates the play of those around him. And when you put those characteristics into a player with his frame, you've got yourself a great player.

But Marner's pretty close to Strome in those areas too. And when you add in the fact that he's a better skater and a more noticeable player away from the puck, I think it gives him the slight advantage.*

That's not to say that Strome is a poor defensive player. He's actually decent in that regard. But Marner makes more of an impact without the puck. He gets his nose dirty on the forecheck and battles hard to get the puck back, (whether it be along the wall or in open ice). That's not something you see from Strome and I'm honestly not sure he'll ever be that type of player.*

Just personal preference. I saw Bobby Mac post something on twitter recently that said he asked 10 scouts about Marner vs. Strome. It was split 5/5. Can't go wrong with either guy.

His website: http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/?m=1

Between Hanifin, Marner, and Strome, we're going to come out with an elite prospect. Just happy that they "tanked" into this position

 

[Semantics]

If you see Kessel, as a playoff goal every two games player, as the difference maker in potentially winning the Stanley Cup or not, you trade away your first round pick for him. Stanley Cup now wins out.

Absolutely. Because if Kessel is a potential difference maker in winning the cup your #1 pick is in the 25-30 range, not top 5.

But if you're in that position, and you have a top 5 pick from some other team, and by some miracle have the cap space, you don't trade it for Kessel. You can get a better more well rounded player for that price.

 

[Semantics]

Hell, we even have a precedent in the Kaberle to Boston trade. Kessel is much more valuable as Kaberle was visibly slowing down at the time of the trade. Even so, Kaberle netted a first round pick, a guy in Colborne who according to the NHL.com article following the trade remarked that

A late first round pick and Colborne is a far cry in value from a top 5 pick in likely the best draft in NHL history.

Edit: and also the Kaberle trade was a terrible one and huge overpayment for the Bruins even though they won. Too many moves like that is why they couldn't repeat their success and ultimately spiraled downwards and the GM lost his job.

 

[shelf]

Absolutely. Because if Kessel is a potential difference maker in winning the cup your #1 pick is in the 25-30 range, not top 5.

But if you're in that position, and you have a top 5 pick from some other team, and by some miracle have the cap space, you don't trade it for Kessel. You can get a better more well rounded player for that price.

No you cant. There is no player that is better than Kessel that is available. If you want one of the top wingers in the game you are going to be paying big.

 

[Semantics]

Don't forget that the Leafs scouting staff has a lot more stats on these prospects than any of us do. They have things like possession stats, quality of competition, zone starts, etc., and they know how those data translate to the NHL. ISS and central scouting don't have those kind of resources, that's why I take their rankings with a grain of salt. Their work is based on the eye test, and straight up personal biases when it comes to factors like size and speed.

I'm fairly certain that Dubas prefers Marner over Strome. He's said multiple times that he a) doesn't like dumping the puck in, and b) he loves puck hounds. Marner easily beats Strome on both of those criteria; he's faster and shiftier, so better at skating the puck into the zone, and he's relentless at puck pursuit. Hunter likely supports those points of view as well, the ineffectiveness of dump ins has been perhaps the single strongest discovery to come out of the analytics movement, so if they're generally aligned then they certainly agree on that one.

The only thing I feel would be up in the air is where they have Hanifin. If they have him at 3 or 4, it's easy, pick whichever AZ doesn't. But for all I know they could have him behind Strome, Crouse, etc. although that's unlikely.

 

[Semantics]

No you cant. There is no player that is better than Kessel that is available. If you want one of the top wingers in the game you are going to be paying big.

If you're willing to trade a top 5 pick in the best draft ever you'd better believe players would become available. LAK paid a lot less for Gaborik, for example, who was better than Kessel. This year you could probably have pried away Pavelski for a top 5 pick, and definitely Thornton, also both better players than Kessel. Ditto Iginla. The latter two are old though so it'd be them plus something extra.

Again, you're expecting 28 year old Kessel to be worth more than 22 year old Kessel was at the time (when the picks were expected to be worse). That's illogical, take off the homer goggles.

 

[Nithoniniel]

I'm Team Marner (ATM) but these are some interesting points...

I've been bringing them up for ages. I should have included tweets so people would listen to me

These "stats" are horrible. QoC is HUGE in the OHL. Want proof? In the 20 games McDavid was gone Strome got 1st line minutes, better line-mates and of course better competition. Stephen Burtch seems to be big on pp/60 which is fine. But lets compare Strome's stats in the 20 games without McDavid to Marner's.

Note: 9 of these 20 games Domi was not playing*

In those 20 games
Marner's GPG: 1.10
Strome's GPG: .70

Marner's APG: 1.25
Strome's APG: .75

So as we can see when Strome isn't playing behind/with one of the best prospects in OHL history his. During that time Marner was involved for 19.7% of London's even strength goal. Strome was in on 10.8% of Erie's even strength goals. So while London and Erie's star players we're gone we can see who really stepped up and lead their respective team. In fact if we're going off this short sample size isn't it fair to say that although Strome has the better shot, Marner is the better goal scorer?

Point wise Marner was involved in 6.3 % of his teams total points Strome 3.6%. It's all fine that Stephen want's to list these stat's but context is key. I can list Marner's total's in the 9 game's without Domi, but it would be redundant as all the numbers I listed would just increase. Strome's numbers are nothing to slouch at, but as we can see Marner's numbers are just better. Add that to all the other things Marner does and it's very clear to me (someone who thinks a 5'11 player can be the best in the league) that Marner will be ours at 4 if he's still available.


Stat's found at: http://www.mckeenshockey.com/lib/Mi...40303&end=5240351&season=2015&league=2&team=0

Eh, P/60 is about as reliable as you can get for a CHL stat if you want a baseline to measure offensive productivity. Sure it could use context, all stats can, but it's very very far from worthless. It's the best number to look at.

I'm also interested in why QoC would be "huge" in CHL when it's anything but everywhere else? And no, a small sample size of Strome without McDavid is really not proof.

Add that 21st game to capture the whole sample size without McDavid and the difference in production could easily be explained by a PP suddenly missing it's central piece and therefor struggling a period, without even touching on Strome's ability. Or it could be all him, not being able to handle slightly worse QoC (although I find this incredibly unlikely). Or it's just natural fluctuation in production. The difference in such a small sample size isn't much bigger than that. Point is that it's never a good idea to shrink a sample size to prove a point.

As for point%, it's of course something worth looking at, but as teammate to McDavid you would never look great there no matter how good you are. But obviously Marner is a bigger part of his teams production.

I also find it funny that you end your post saying that since you like Marner better, you know he'll be our pick at 4. Overestimating your influence, perhaps?

 

[Joey24]

Very interesting stuff. I think the 'skill gap' between Marner and Strome is a lot closer than many would like to admit.

Anyone saying there is a huge skill gap is pretty silly. Each have their own style of play, Mitch is more of a pitbull type player, he is always chasing the puck relentless.

Strome is more of a flow type player, he has the ability to see the game a little better then most. In terms of anticipation and vision I put Strome right up with McDavid. It's his agility and skating I think Strome is going to struggle with in the NHL.

I think Strome has some major question marks about his agility and skating and speed. Marner is a pretty elite level skater, elite speed and agility. So although their skill gap is pretty even in terms of offensive ability, Marner has him beat hands down in skating ability, Mitch is also responsible defensively and is always moving, at such a young age to be as responsible at both ends of the ice as Mitch is, it's impressive.

Strome is an elite talent, it's his short comings that may make people second guess if his game will translate as well to the NHL. His defensive enthusiasm is not one of his strong points, he is capable but doesn't always choose to over exert on the defensive end of the ice. It is something that can be learned and drilled into him by coaching, but that was said about Phil Kessel also, you don't get these type of players for their defence you get them for what they bring on the offense side of the puck.

And that in it's self is why I see Toronto selecting either, Marner or Hanifin, the more complete players who each have an elite level skating and compete levels to go along with world class top of the draft end talent. Strome has talent but he also has a lot more holes in his game then the pre mentioned.