Speculation: Who will we draft with #4? Part III

[Glenn Isildur Healy]

Considering the odds are the draft pick does not become a player as good as Kessel your claim is a bit odd. Kessel is not overpaid and there is no reason to believe we would have to take part of his salary. Don't believe everything you read on the main boards.

I've never understood that argument that you don't trade Player A because the odds of draft pick #X will only have a 2% chance of being as good as Player A is.

This is essentially the same argument I heard to justify trading our 2nd round picks for Dave Bolland. Well the chances that our 2nd round pick will ever be as good as Dave Bolland are very low so its obvious we win the trade

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I do dismiss Pronman, just take a look at his previous rankings, almost all of his outlier rankings were flat out wrong. He's becoming a Craig Button wannabe.

Button's rankings are done to create publicity for himself, you just have to look back at his defensemen rankings to see how wrong he's been on those. So while I do respect his knowledge of prospects I don't respect his rankings of them.

Pronman never used to even attend games in person a scout once told me. I don't know if this is still the case, but his draft lists are not one I normally follow.

Button has made some good calls for a person that is a contrarian. He down graded Grigorennko in his draft year to much criticism. It was never the russian factor, he explained it well as never seeing him as a #1C, perhaps a #2C ceiling. I think that looks spot on right now, He also heavily touted Gally, Rielly and Dumba before the draft. Given both Gally and Rielly were hurt much of the year, and Dumba has emerged in Minnesota. These all look like good calls now. I don't agree with him 100% of the time, but I do find his lists refreshingly different from the status quo lists. When you go off the board like him, it puts him out there to look foolish at times. I can respect he is secure enough to do this.

 

[cobra77]

Strome or marner

If the leafs can trade phanuef to SJ or col for their 1st rd pk then leafs should take zacha with the 8th or 10th if he is still there. The guy is a future number 1 C for sure . Strome n zacha then pilon at 22 great draft for the leafs

 

[The Winter Soldier]

He's most definitely not better than Ekblad. I'd put him in the Murray, Jones, Trouba tier and just below Doughty, Ekblad, Hedman tier. These dman have potential to be top 5 in the league.

Chychrun is prospect you should keep your eyes on. He's a Doughty, Hedman level, IMO.




http://www.ottawasun.com/2015/02/19/super-rookie-chychrun-following-ekblads-footsteps

I believe if Ekblad was in this draft, he would likely be no better than 5th overall. Behind Mc-Eichel, Hanifin, Strome. I can see him being right there with Provorov and Werenski. And fighting it out with Marner and Crouse for 5th overall. But again this draft has been regarded as the best in a decade.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

I believe if Ekblad was in this draft, he would likely be no better than 5th overall. Behind Mc-Eichel, Hanifin, Strome. I can see him being right there with Provorov and Werenski. And fighting it out with Marner and Crouse for 5th overall. But again this draft has been regarded as the best in a decade.

closest to the 03 for sure...now lets hope we don't pull an oiler or rangers pick.

 

[BlueBaron]

I've never understood that argument that you don't trade Player A because the odds of draft pick #X will only have a 2% chance of being as good as Player A is.

This is essentially the same argument I heard to justify trading our 2nd round picks for Dave Bolland. Well the chances that our 2nd round pick will ever be as good as Dave Bolland are very low so its obvious we win the trade

It's a context thing really. You don't typically see teams trade star players for draft picks and prospects unless they are forced to trade said player or a team decides it is rebuilding.

Ilya Kovalchuck, Rick Nash, Joe Thorton and so on, these stars never get fair value in return and the team that had to trade them usually walks away with almost nothing because the draft pick seldom works out.

So why would Jersey rather have Kessel than the 6th over all pick ? because Kessel is more likely to help them win games , especially in the immediate future. Teams rebuilding are less worried about these things. They know some of their picks will bust. It's known versus potential.

Put another way some people would rather have $1000 bucks cash than a lottery ticket. It safer to take the cash.

 

[Stephen]

It's a context thing really. You don't typically see teams trade star players for draft picks and prospects unless they are forced to trade said player or a team decides it is rebuilding.

Ilya Kovalchuck, Rick Nash, Joe Thorton and so on, these stars never get fair value in return and the team that had to trade them usually walks away with almost nothing because the draft pick seldom works out.

So why would Jersey rather have Kessel than the 6th over all pick ? because Kessel is more likely to help them win games , especially in the immediate future. Teams rebuilding are less worried about these things. They know some of their picks will bust. It's known versus potential.

Put another way some people would rather have $1000 bucks cash than a lottery ticket. It safer to take the cash.

Put another way, what the Leafs need right now to get their rebuild off on the right foot is to find another Toronto Maple Leafs type organization out there to take advantage of.

 

[Glenn Isildur Healy]

It's a context thing really. You don't typically see teams trade star players for draft picks and prospects unless they are forced to trade said player or a team decides it is rebuilding.

Ilya Kovalchuck, Rick Nash, Joe Thorton and so on, these stars never get fair value in return and the team that had to trade them usually walks away with almost nothing because the draft pick seldom works out.

So why would Jersey rather have Kessel than the 6th over all pick ? because Kessel is more likely to help them win games , especially in the immediate future. Teams rebuilding are less worried about these things. They know some of their picks will bust. It's known versus potential.

Put another way some people would rather have $1000 bucks cash than a lottery ticket. It safer to take the cash.

Winning trades are important and it would certainly be tremendous if a player we got back for Kessel became as good as him. However, moving the organization in a right direction is also the other side of the coin and just as important if not more. Personally, I don't evaluate a GM based on their good to bad trade ratio but rather they direction they are taking the team and are we moving closer to becoming a cup contender

Also, from a management perspective, you should always look at draft picks as assets rather than whether they work out or not as players. The great thing about draft picks are that they are essentially riskless for a long period of time or until they become RFAs. Kessel is a not a riskless asset, he has to live up to his contract for a long period of time. Only teams who are looking to win now should be trading for Kessel. If not, you're essentially wasting his best years on a mediocre team and you're not maximizing his trade value on a meh team. Think of it this way, all 29 teams would love to have the 6th overall pick but not all 29 teams are in a position to be trading for a Kessel

Finally, the Leafs are obviously not in the driver seat right now. We at the point where we have to trade Kessel, Phaneuf, etc... to get our rebuilding started. Keeping those same players around for next season is a waste of time

 

[Dragao6]

lol... Positive Strome post

Sorry buddy you missed your chance, he's Hfs whipping boy at the moment. Should have seen people after his 6 point season finale, but that is the roller coaster that is Hf.

If Strome comes to play (gets hot) for the OHL finals/Memorial Cup, you'll see a lot of people flocking back to his bandwagon.

Anyway, my preference:

Marner
Hanifin
Strome

but I would be okay with any of them. Marner would just make me more okay with it.

Not even McDavid is gonna get Erie past Oshawa let alone Strome that has been invisible. Dont forget playoffs you play vs better teams consistantly when regular season you can really inflate your stats vs weaker teams...just saying, ive seen this guys live and not impressed.

And Bernier for 9th overall I would probably do, specially at the 9th pick if there is still stud Hunter wants I can see this happening. Bernier is very good but we dont have the team

But Ive really convinced myself now of Hanifin so make this happen Shanny

 

[MJ65]

Not even McDavid is gonna get Erie past Oshawa let alone Strome that has been invisible. Dont forget playoffs you play vs better teams consistantly when regular season you can really inflate your stats vs weaker teams...just saying, ive seen this guys live and not impressed.

And Bernier for 9th overall I would probably do, specially at the 9th pick if there is still stud Hunter wants I can see this happening. Bernier is very good but we dont have the team

But Ive really convinced myself now of Hanifin so make this happen Shanny

San Jose is at # 9 and they have Niemi and Bernier is not much of an upgrade, and # 9 is too much to ask for without adding a pick or a prospect

 

[weems]

San Jose is at # 9 and they have Niemi and Bernier is not much of an upgrade, and # 9 is too much to ask for without adding a pick or a prospect

Isnt Niemi a free agent?

 

[MJ65]

Isnt Niemi a free agent?

They can still sign him - realistically Bernier is not worth 9th OA, I can understand if its a late 1st round

 

[disgruntleddave]

Nobody would give a high first round pick for Bernier. We all think he's got it and he's shown us at times how good he can be, but league-wide he hasn't proven anything at all that would warrant such a high pick.

 

[LaPlante94]

San Jose is at # 9 and they have Niemi and Bernier is not much of an upgrade, and # 9 is too much to ask for without adding a pick or a prospect

New Jersey gave up the 9th overall pick for Schneider. I'm not saying Bernier is better than Schneider, but Bernier is just entering his prime years being only 26 years old. I think New Jersey could have used that pick more than San Jose does right now.

 

[Glenn Isildur Healy]

New Jersey gave up the 9th overall pick for Schneider. I'm not saying Bernier is better than Schneider, but Bernier is just entering his prime years being only 26 years old. I think New Jersey could have used that pick more than San Jose does right now.

IMO the Sharks need to keep their pick and start looking into the future. That current core is going nowhere

 

[Semantics]

I've never understood that argument that you don't trade Player A because the odds of draft pick #X will only have a 2% chance of being as good as Player A is.

This is essentially the same argument I heard to justify trading our 2nd round picks for Dave Bolland. Well the chances that our 2nd round pick will ever be as good as Dave Bolland are very low so its obvious we win the trade

Psychology. Humans are loss averse, and furthermore they tend to see things in the moment. It's very hard to agree to give up a player who's is good right now for a number on a draft board with no name or face. A lot of fans would legit choose Anthony Mantha, a good but not blue chip prospect, over a top 10 pick in this year's draft, just because of he has a name and nice measurements.

Understanding the value of an asset like Kessel seems vaguely similar to me to understanding the time value of money, depreciation, and other financial matters. Most people utterly fail at these things.

People need to look at it this way: Kessel's career is half over. So what you're actually trading is at most 0.5 Kessel-careers, not 1.0 Kessel-careers. But he's also got a large cap hit now, so the 0.5 of his career remaining is the less valuable half of his career - the first half where a player is rights restricted is much more cap friendly. So you take off another 0.1 or 0.2, and you're left with 0.3-0.4 Kessel-careers as his value.

That's why if we're offered the 5th pick straight up for Kessel we should take it and run, despite Leafs fans' protestations of "hurr durr, there's no guarantee Strome will be as good as Kessel". Well no ****, you're not doing the deal expecting the pick to be as good as Kessel. You're doing the deal expecting the pick's career to be at least 0.4 as good as Kessel's. If you hit that mark, the trade is a steal. And obviously other teams know this too, so there's no way such a trade happens.

 

[Mess]

Nobody would give a high first round pick for Bernier. We all think he's got it and he's shown us at times how good he can be, but league-wide he hasn't proven anything at all that would warrant such a high pick.

It would be more like Bernier and the Nashville 1st for SJ 1st.

Essentially using Bernier to trade up from 23-24 to #9 in the draft.

PS. Leafs 2nd rounder this draft #34 overall (among other things Frattin and Scrivens) were what Leafs gave up to get Bernier.

 

[Woll Smoth]

Psychology. Humans are loss averse, and furthermore they tend to see things in the moment. It's very hard to agree to give up a player who's is good right now for a number on a draft board with no name or face. A lot of fans would legit choose Anthony Mantha, a good but not blue chip prospect, over a top 10 pick in this year's draft, just because of he has a name and nice measurements.

Understanding the value of an asset like Kessel seems vaguely similar to me to understanding the time value of money, depreciation, and other financial matters. Most people utterly fail at these things.

People need to look at it this way: Kessel's career is half over. So what you're actually trading is at most 0.5 Kessel-careers, not 1.0 Kessel-careers. But he's also got a large cap hit now, so the 0.5 of his career remaining is the less valuable half of his career - the first half where a player is rights restricted is much more cap friendly. So you take off another 0.1 or 0.2, and you're left with 0.3-0.4 Kessel-careers as his value.

That's why if we're offered the 5th pick straight up for Kessel we should take it and run, despite Leafs fans' protestations of "hurr durr, there's no guarantee Strome will be as good as Kessel". Well no ****, you're not doing the deal expecting the pick to be as good as Kessel. You're doing the deal expecting the pick's career to be at least 0.4 as good as Kessel's. If you hit that mark, the trade is a steal. And obviously other teams know this too, so there's no way such a trade happens.

Disagree with everything in this post. I'm sure the average fan would take their chance with a top 10 pick over Mantha. You'd have a better argument asking them to pick 20th this year vs Mantha. Then it comes down to how much you know prospects.

And I'm sure the average fan would jump at the chance at 2 of Hanifin, Marner and Strome. We're rebuilding. It's pretty obvious that this core is a massive failure.

I think you've given the average fan too little credit here, and yourself 0.274 too much.

 

[Sundinisagod]

Pronman never used to even attend games in person a scout once told me. I don't know if this is still the case, but his draft lists are not one I normally follow.

Button has made some good calls for a person that is a contrarian. He down graded Grigorenko in his draft year to much criticism. It was never the russian factor, he explained it well as never seeing him as a #1C, perhaps a #2C ceiling. I think that looks spot on right now, He also heavily touted Gally, Rielly and Dumba before the draft. Given both Gally and Rielly were hurt much of the year, and Dumba has emerged in Minnesota. These all look like good calls now. I don't agree with him 100% of the time, but I do find his lists refreshingly different from the status quo lists. When you go off the board like him, it puts him out there to look foolish at times. I can respect he is secure enough to do this.

Grigorenko crapped the bed to end the season/playoffs, he dropped on other lists too that wasn't a real shocker.

He had Dumba ranked #2, does he look like the 2nd best player to you?

He had Rielly at #3, I love Rielly but he's not looking 3rd overall worthy if being realistic.

Galchenyuk at 4, most Leaf fans knew he was going to MTL at 3...so no special insight there.

Matt Finn at 9 illustrates Button's scouting genius, especially ahead of Trouba (12) and Murray (13).

He did go with the consensus #1 in Yakupov, and that ranking isn't working out either.

Where did he have Risto again in 2013?

Do I need to go on?

All his "contrarian" calls have backfired on him.

There's obviously reason why no NHL team is paying him to evaluate talent.



And I know you are big on Hanifin, where does Button have him ranked currently? Lets revisit that one in a few years, shall we?

 

[BlueBaron]

Grigorenko crapped the bed to end the season/playoffs, he dropped on other lists too that wasn't a real shocker.

He had Dumba ranked #2, does he look like the 2nd best player to you?

He had Rielly at #3, I love Rielly but he's not looking 3rd overall worthy if being realistic.

Galchenyuk at 4, most Leaf fans knew he was going to MTL at 3...so no special insight there.

Matt Finn at 9 illustrates Button's scouting genius, especially ahead of Trouba (12) and Murray (13).

He did go with the consensus #1 in Yakupov, and that ranking isn't working out either.

Where did he have Risto again in 2013?

Do I need to go on?

All his "contrarian" calls have backfired on him.

There's obviously reason why no NHL team is paying him to evaluate talent.



And I know you are big on Hanifin, where does Button have him ranked currently? Lets revisit that one in a few years, shall we?

You do realise that these lists are little more than guidelines and that no one can ever get one perfect ? 20-20 hindsight is all well and good but no one expects anyone's lists to pan out years later and perfectly reflect the draft as it should have been.

 

[Sundinisagod]

You do realise that these lists are little more than guidelines and that no one can ever get one perfect ? 20-20 hindsight is all well and good but no one expects anyone's lists to pan out years later and perfectly reflect the draft as it should have been.

The context here is he claiming Button makes some good calls for a contrarian, but all his contrarian calls are misses, so I don't put a lot of stock into his rankings.

 

[Stephen]

Disagree with everything in this post. I'm sure the average fan would take their chance with a top 10 pick over Mantha. You'd have a better argument asking them to pick 20th this year vs Mantha. Then it comes down to how much you know prospects.

And I'm sure the average fan would jump at the chance at 2 of Hanifin, Marner and Strome. We're rebuilding. It's pretty obvious that this core is a massive failure.

I think you've given the average fan too little credit here, and yourself 0.274 too much.

There are certainly Leafs fans who like to mock the draft and rebuild process by using witty quotes like "why go for a boat when you can have a mystery box!"

 

[egd27]

There are certainly Leafs fans who like to mock the draft and rebuild process by using witty quotes like "why go for a boat when you can have a mystery box!"

Is not mocking the draft or rebuild process, it's mocking the attitude that a draft pick is always more valuable than an actual NHL player.

 

[Stephen]

Is not mocking the draft or rebuild process, it's mocking the attitude that a draft pick is always more valuable than an actual NHL player.

Not really, it's a dismissive attitude towards individual picks by highlighting the inherent uncertainty of picks to justify the status quo.

 

[BlueBaron]

Is not mocking the draft or rebuild process, it's mocking the attitude that a draft pick is always more valuable than an actual NHL player.

It's an HF thing. Of course the truth is somewhere in the middle. To a rebuilding team picks are huge and the promise of a brighter tomorrow. To a contending team, important, but ultimately just assets used to acquire prospects or traded for players who will help now.

But this is a forum where the focus is on prospects so it isn't so surprising that the culture of draft picks being everything has taken a firm root here.

Good teams balance these things using the draft to restock their cupboard while occasionally trading picks/prospects to improve their roster.