"Who Was Better, Crosby or MacKinnon?" Has Become A Valid Question

[Erik Alfredsson]

What's with Colorado fans comparing their star players to the GOATs of the sport? MacKinnon and Makar can just be good, they don't have to be Crosby and Bobby Orr good.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Players who put up 100 point seasons in 2017/18 and 2018/19 with age and draft year:

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Kucherov - twice (age 24/25) - 2011
McDavid - twice (age 21/22) - 2015
Kane - (age 31) - 2007
Draisaitl - (age 23) - 2014
Giroux - (age 30) - 2006
Marchand - (age 30) - 2006
Crosby - (age 31) - 2005

Two of seven players drafted after 2012.

How about we keep going with the 90 point scorers. Surely all those "much better" players will start showing up.

MacKinnon - 2013
Gaudreau - 2011
Stamkos - 2008
Malkin - 2004
Barkov - 2013
Marner - 2015
Hall - 2010
Point - 2014
Kopitar - 2005
Kessel - 2006
Huberdeau - 2011
Wheeler - 2004

Four of twelve players drafted after 2012


Six players of the nineteen "elite scorers" were drafted AFTER 2012.

Eight players of the nineteen "elite scorers" were drafted BEFORE 2009.


Is there any more shit you want to throw against the wall to see what sticks? You may want to stretch before trying to spin this.

I'm sorry, but you're going to have to explain how you think this proves that adding elite talent didn't increase overall scoring.

Do you want to continue to pretend that adding McDavid and Draisaitl to the top had zero impact on league averages? Or that adding MacKinnon, Barkov, Marner, and Point to the list of 90+ scorers didn't also increase the average? I'd even argue that Marchand's 100 point season was because of Pasta joining the team, and could make a pretty decent case that Kane likely doesn't hit 100 without guys like Panarin or Debrincat coming into the league after 2013.

Also, why did you move the goalposts and stop at 2018-19? Is it so you don't have to put Pasta, Rantanen, Tkachuk, Kaprizov, Pettersson, and Robertson in the list of 100 point players from the 2013 or later drafts that have helped drive scoring even higher than it was in 2018-19?

Even your 100 point threshold seems purposefully misleading, considering MacKinnon put up a 1.31 PPG (107 point pace) in 2017-18 but only played 74 games. He outscored Giroux by 0.07 PPG but you seem to want to pretend Giroux's season was better solely because he played 8 more games.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I can't believe an actual human being watched Giroux and Heatley in their primes and determined Heatley was the better player.

Ignore scoring finishes. It's just a complete failure at talent evaluation.

Unfortunately, I'm not even remotely surprised that someone on HF read "Heatley was better offensively, which makes beating him in the scoring race more impressive" and mis-interpreted it as "Heatley was the better player".

Ignore everything except the ability to score lots of points, which one is better offensively?

 

[daver]

I'm sorry, but you're going to have to explain how you think this proves that adding elite talent didn't increase overall scoring.

It proves that elite talent NEVER LEFT the league as you are claiming.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

It proves that elite talent NEVER LEFT the league as you are claiming.

To me, it seems to prove that you somehow think "there were fewer elite players at the top" is the same thing as "there was zero elite talent".

 

[jigglysquishy]

Unfortunately, I'm not even remotely surprised that someone on HF read "Heatley was better offensively, which makes beating him in the scoring race more impressive" and mis-interpreted it as "Heatley was the better player".

Ignore everything except the ability to score lots of points, which one is better offensively?

Giroux was unquestionably the better offensive player.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Giroux was unquestionably the better offensive player.

Based on what, exactly? The fact he never scored more than 35 goals in a season? His single 100 point season? Or is it the three straight seasons during his prime when he struggled to even reach 0.9 PPG?

Or it just because you want to pretend it's true?

 

[jigglysquishy]

Based on what, exactly? The fact he never scored more than 35 goals in a season? His single 100 point season? Or is it the three straight seasons during his prime when he struggled to even reach 0.9 PPG?

Or it just because you want to pretend it's true?

Heatley was a very one-dimensional player that struggled to create offense on his own. His best years were anchored to Alfredsson and Spezza, who were able to create the space Heatley needed to thrive. It's no coincidence that Heatley's best years were when powerplays were called like crazy, which not only gave him ample PP time, but also pulled defenders back at even strength due to fear of penalization. Healtey always struggled when pressured, which made him unable to lead a line offensively. It largely came from a lack of foot speed, which made him vulnerable to mobile defensemen. I was never impressed with his board play either, so he really had to be at the top of the slot to be successful. With his low speed, he needed to play with someone who could open up the play in his own end to generate offense. He always had a great shot, but his utility to use it was very reliant on teammates. His lack of speed really demonstrated itself once in San Jose. His last year as a strong even strength player was 2009-10 (at age 29). Afterwards, he relied on the cross seam PP pass and was largely ineffective at EV. That's not even getting into his EV defensive contributions, which were putrid post-Ottawa.

These comments all apply to post-accident Heatley. He was much faster in 2002-03 and generated substantial offense on his own. In terms of actual individual play, it was his best season, even if the shine is on the pizza line post-lockout.

Giroux was successful in multiple environments. He was the outstanding offensive player on the 2011-12 Flyers. He primarily played with the unidimensional Hartnell and 40-year-old Jagr that season and was the primary offensive line driver. The Flyers didn't have much offensive fire power in the mid 2010s, and he comfortably lead his team in scoring in 2013-14. Voracek was his lone help.

Giroux has always been a pass first player, but his diversity in options is what led to his success. He was a strong board player and was able to find passes from behind the net. He was strong off the rush despite not being overly fast and was able to utilize unidimensional players like Hartnell and Simmonds. Giroux succeeded in low-scoring, low-PP years like 2011-12, and in higher-scoring, medium-PP years like 2017-18. His ability to still be effective at age 35 while no longer the offensive focus is admirable and demonstrates his ability to not need the puck on his stick to succeed. It's a rare skillset for a playmaker, who typically fall apart when offense doesn't flow through them (see, Thornton in his later years).

Giroux simply has more tools in his toolbox, and has shown success in more environments under different systems. He made the most out of non-elite teammates (Hartnell and Simmonds) and thrived when playing with elite ones (Voracek). He absolutely had down years in his prime-health years. He was able to drive offense on the rush, via board play, or cycling on the powerplay.

Maybe Heatley pre-accident could have turned into that player, but his Ottawa years he leaned on his shot and elite linemates and didn't do much outside of that. Heatley's last year of being a line-driving offensive player was at age 22.

 

[Offtheboard412]

I can say it very easily, because I don't give a shit about scoring finishes across different years. As I keep saying, beating lesser competition doesn't make a player better.

How was finishing second ahead of Kucherov, MacKinnon, Malkin, and Crosby and Hall in 17/18 him beating lesser competition? Thats extremely strong competition. It seems like your definition of strong competition keeps changing. I've never seen someone overrate Heatley the way you are. He had two big years playing on the best offensive line in hockey when the league was giving out power plays like candy.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

How was finishing second ahead of Kucherov, MacKinnon, Malkin, and Crosby and Hall in 17/18 him beating lesser competition? Thats extremely strong competition. It seems like your definition of strong competition keeps changing. I've never seen someone overrate Heatley the way you are. He had two big years playing on the best offensive line in hockey when the league was giving out power plays like candy.

You mean the season when Giroux had a lower PPG rate than McDavid, Mack, Malkin, Kucherov, and Marchand, but was the only one other than McDavid to play all 82 games, which resulted in him finishing 2nd? If everyone played the same number of games, Giroux would have finished 6th, not 2nd, so I'd like to assume that no one would claim it was definitely the 2nd best offensive season that year, but the number of people who keep pretending raw scoring ranks matter makes me question that assumption.

I'm also confused about how you think being part of the best offensive line in hockey made Heatley easier to beat in scoring race, or even makes him less offensively talented than Giroux. In his 2nd year, before the lockout (and accident), he scored at a 94 point pace on the Thrashers, leading the team in scoring by 19 points, so the high end offensive talent was very clearly there.

 

[Offtheboard412]

You mean the season when Giroux had a lower PPG rate than McDavid, Mack, Malkin, Kucherov, and Marchand, but was the only one other than McDavid to play all 82 games, which resulted in him finishing 2nd? If everyone played the same number of games, Giroux would have finished 6th, not 2nd, so I'd like to assume that no one would claim it was definitely the 2nd best offensive season that year, but the number of people who keep pretending raw scoring ranks matter makes me question that assumption.

I'm also confused about how you think being part of the best offensive line in hockey made Heatley easier to beat in scoring race, or even makes him less offensively talented than Giroux. In his 2nd year, before the lockout (and accident), he scored at a 94 point pace on the Thrashers, leading the team in scoring by 19 points, so the high end offensive talent was very clearly there.

Malkin, Kucherov and Marchand were on pace for 103 (Kucherov and Marchand actually come out to 102.5 but I'll be nice and round up). Mackinnon was on pace for 107 but he went cold at the end of the season and there's no guarantee he actually hits that. So even if we give all of them the benefit of the doubt, Giroux still would have been neck and neck with them. I don't know why you would want to get into on pace arguments, because that only strengthens the argument for Crosby

As for Heatley, my contention was with the statement that what he did was substantially more impressive than what Giroux did offensively. I made that pretty clear.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Heatley was a very one-dimensional player that struggled to create offense on his own. His best years were anchored to Alfredsson and Spezza, who were able to create the space Heatley needed to thrive. It's no coincidence that Heatley's best years were when powerplays were called like crazy, which not only gave him ample PP time, but also pulled defenders back at even strength due to fear of penalization. Healtey always struggled when pressured, which made him unable to lead a line offensively. It largely came from a lack of foot speed, which made him vulnerable to mobile defensemen. I was never impressed with his board play either, so he really had to be at the top of the slot to be successful. With his low speed, he needed to play with someone who could open up the play in his own end to generate offense. He always had a great shot, but his utility to use it was very reliant on teammates. His lack of speed really demonstrated itself once in San Jose. His last year as a strong even strength player was 2009-10 (at age 29). Afterwards, he relied on the cross seam PP pass and was largely ineffective at EV. That's not even getting into his EV defensive contributions, which were putrid post-Ottawa.

These comments all apply to post-accident Heatley. He was much faster in 2002-03 and generated substantial offense on his own. In terms of actual individual play, it was his best season, even if the shine is on the pizza line post-lockout.

Giroux was successful in multiple environments. He was the outstanding offensive player on the 2011-12 Flyers. He primarily played with the unidimensional Hartnell and 40-year-old Jagr that season and was the primary offensive line driver. The Flyers didn't have much offensive fire power in the mid 2010s, and he comfortably lead his team in scoring in 2013-14. Voracek was his lone help.

Giroux has always been a pass first player, but his diversity in options is what led to his success. He was a strong board player and was able to find passes from behind the net. He was strong off the rush despite not being overly fast and was able to utilize unidimensional players like Hartnell and Simmonds. Giroux succeeded in low-scoring, low-PP years like 2011-12, and in higher-scoring, medium-PP years like 2017-18. His ability to still be effective at age 35 while no longer the offensive focus is admirable and demonstrates his ability to not need the puck on his stick to succeed. It's a rare skillset for a playmaker, who typically fall apart when offense doesn't flow through them (see, Thornton in his later years).

Giroux simply has more tools in his toolbox, and has shown success in more environments under different systems. He made the most out of non-elite teammates (Hartnell and Simmonds) and thrived when playing with elite ones (Voracek). He absolutely had down years in his prime-health years. He was able to drive offense on the rush, via board play, or cycling on the powerplay.

Maybe Heatley pre-accident could have turned into that player, but his Ottawa years he leaned on his shot and elite linemates and didn't do much outside of that. Heatley's last year of being a line-driving offensive player was at age 22.

Neither Spezza and Alfredsson was even a consistent PPG player without Heatley, and both put up their 3 best seasons playing with him, so your claim that Heatley was a passenger on that line doesn't really seem to hold up to much scrutiny.

I do agree that the accident/injuries hampered Heatley's ability to demonstrate his talent, but I strongly disagree that it made him less offensively talented. The skill was clearly there, even if his body was damaged.

As for Giroux, I agree he was a better passer, and better overall than post-accident Heatley. But, much like Spezza and Alfredsson, he wasn't a consistent PPG player for more than a couple of years at a time, so I struggle to say he's even the same caliber of offensive player as Heatley. To me, Giroux having 2 career seasons over 1.1 PPG (90 point pace), which occurred 6 years apart, doesn't even remotely suggest he's better offensively than a guy who had 4 seasons at 1.1 or higher in a 6 year (5 seasons) stretch. And that's ignoring the fact that Heatley could have easily had 6 90+ point seasons in 6 years without the accident and lockout.

But, I do appreciate you laying out your case, even if it isn't convincing.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Neither Spezza and Alfredsson was even a consistent PPG player without Heatley, and both put up their 3 best seasons playing with him, so your claim that Heatley was a passenger on that line doesn't really seem to hold up to much scrutiny.

I do agree that the accident/injuries hampered Heatley's ability to demonstrate his talent, but I strongly disagree that it made him less offensively talented. The skill was clearly there, even if his body was damaged.

As for Giroux, I agree he was a better passer, and better overall than post-accident Heatley. But, much like Spezza and Alfredsson, he wasn't a consistent PPG player for more than a couple of years at a time, so I struggle to say he's even the same caliber of offensive player as Heatley. To me, Giroux having 2 career seasons over 1.1 PPG (90 point pace), which occurred 6 years apart, doesn't even remotely suggest he's better offensively than a guy who had 4 seasons at 1.1 or higher in a 6 year (5 seasons) stretch. And that's ignoring the fact that Heatley could have easily had 6 90+ point seasons in 6 years without the accident and lockout.

But, I do appreciate you laying out your case, even if it isn't convincing.

Serious question. Do you even watch hockey?

Every post you makes comes across as someone who just checks stats on NHL.com, but didn't watch a single game of hockey pre-2017. Your inability to understand basic hockey history like scoring levels is quite astounding.

There's a reason every single person in this thread is disagreeing with you.

I would encourage you to actually watch some 2006-2008 Senators games. It was extremely apparent live that Heatley was the third-wheel of that line and benefited from two stronger play drivers.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Malkin, Kucherov and Marchand were on pace for 103 (Kucherov and Marchand actually come out to 102.5 but I'll be nice and round up). Mackinnon was on pace for 107 but he went cold at the end of the season and there's no guarantee he actually hits that. So even if we give all of them the benefit of the doubt, Giroux still would have been neck and neck with them. I don't know why you would want to get into on pace arguments, because that only strengthens the argument for Crosby

As for Heatley, my contention was with the statement that what he did was substantially more impressive than what Giroux did offensively. I made that pretty clear.

103 and 102.5 are both > 102, right?

And being neck and neck with elite players during his career best season doesn't mean he's the same caliber of offensive player. Mack's been scoring at a minumum of 107 PPG for 6 of the last 7 years and is 1.40 PPG overall since 2017-18. Kucherov is 1.43 PPG since 2017-18. Even Marchand, who is clearly not at that same level, had 6 straight years of being PPG+ starting in 2016-17, something Giroux has never done at any point in his career.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Serious question. Do you even watch hockey?

Every post you makes comes across as someone who just checks stats on NHL.com, but didn't watch a single game of hockey pre-2017. Your inability to understand basic hockey history like scoring levels is quite astounding.

There's a reason every single person in this thread is disagreeing with you.

I would encourage you to actually watch some 2006-2008 Senators games. It was extremely apparent live that Heatley was the third-wheel of that line and benefited from two stronger play drivers.

I've been watching hockey for over 40 years at this point. And I freely admit that I am checking stats, because using verifiable information seems like a much better option than relying solely on my memory to convince people of what happened.

There's also only like 4 people disagreeing with me, and not a single one has convinced me that their reason is better yet.

And, I watched quite a few of those Sens games, and it was pretty clear that they all benefited from playing together. But that doesn't suggest Giroux was a better offensive player than Heatley.

 

[daver]

Neither Spezza and Alfredsson was even a consistent PPG player without Heatley, and both put up their 3 best seasons playing with him, so your claim that Heatley was a passenger on that line doesn't really seem to hold up to much scrutiny.

So Heatley's numbers speak for themselves, no need for context, but Crosby's numbers after 2016 were reliant on Guentzel and Kessel?

You can't write this stuff.

 

[nowhereman]

How is this thread still going?

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Heatley was a very one-dimensional player that struggled to create offense on his own. His best years were anchored to Alfredsson and Spezza, who were able to create the space Heatley needed to thrive. It's no coincidence that Heatley's best years were when powerplays were called like crazy, which not only gave him ample PP time, but also pulled defenders back at even strength due to fear of penalization. Healtey always struggled when pressured, which made him unable to lead a line offensively. It largely came from a lack of foot speed, which made him vulnerable to mobile defensemen. I was never impressed with his board play either, so he really had to be at the top of the slot to be successful. With his low speed, he needed to play with someone who could open up the play in his own end to generate offense. He always had a great shot, but his utility to use it was very reliant on teammates. His lack of speed really demonstrated itself once in San Jose. His last year as a strong even strength player was 2009-10 (at age 29). Afterwards, he relied on the cross seam PP pass and was largely ineffective at EV. That's not even getting into his EV defensive contributions, which were putrid post-Ottawa.

These comments all apply to post-accident Heatley. He was much faster in 2002-03 and generated substantial offense on his own. In terms of actual individual play, it was his best season, even if the shine is on the pizza line post-lockout.

Giroux was successful in multiple environments. He was the outstanding offensive player on the 2011-12 Flyers. He primarily played with the unidimensional Hartnell and 40-year-old Jagr that season and was the primary offensive line driver. The Flyers didn't have much offensive fire power in the mid 2010s, and he comfortably lead his team in scoring in 2013-14. Voracek was his lone help.

Giroux has always been a pass first player, but his diversity in options is what led to his success. He was a strong board player and was able to find passes from behind the net. He was strong off the rush despite not being overly fast and was able to utilize unidimensional players like Hartnell and Simmonds. Giroux succeeded in low-scoring, low-PP years like 2011-12, and in higher-scoring, medium-PP years like 2017-18. His ability to still be effective at age 35 while no longer the offensive focus is admirable and demonstrates his ability to not need the puck on his stick to succeed. It's a rare skillset for a playmaker, who typically fall apart when offense doesn't flow through them (see, Thornton in his later years).

Giroux simply has more tools in his toolbox, and has shown success in more environments under different systems. He made the most out of non-elite teammates (Hartnell and Simmonds) and thrived when playing with elite ones (Voracek). He absolutely had down years in his prime-health years. He was able to drive offense on the rush, via board play, or cycling on the powerplay.

Maybe Heatley pre-accident could have turned into that player, but his Ottawa years he leaned on his shot and elite linemates and didn't do much outside of that. Heatley's last year of being a line-driving offensive player was at age 22.

This is a great scouting report on both players. @Michael Farkas would be proud.

Before the crash, Heatley had a higher upside than Giroux. His 2003 season was fantastic. But he lost a fair bit of his speed and tenacity after that terrible incident. I agree that he was very clearly less impactful than Alfredsson on the "pizza line".

(I still remember that when Heatley and Kovalchuk played for Atlanta, someone in the media said that they could be the next Trottier and Bossy. I can sort of see the Bossy/Kovalchuk comparison - even though the difference in their playoff resumes is enormous. But the Heatley/Trottier comparison is hilariously off base).

 

[KrisLetAngry]

How is this thread still going?

My thought as well.

A majority of posters are laughing at the comparison. Most Avs fans included.

I do love watching McKinnon play though. Going to be a first ballot hall of famer.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

So Heatley's numbers speak for themselves, no need for context, but Crosby's numbers after 2016 were reliant on Guentzel and Kessel?

You can't write this stuff.

No, Heatley's raw numbers absolutely need some context. But there's no context anyone has presented yet that makes me believe that a player who had 2 90+ point seasons over 7 years, with a couple of seasons under 0.9 in between, is more offensively skilled than a guy consistently scoring 90+ in 4 of 5 seasons, that could have plausibly been 6 in 6 without a lockout and horrific accident.

And, Crosby's numbers absolutely benefited from playing with Guentzel or Kessel more than from playing with Kunitz or Comeau.

But, I do agree that I can't write that stuff. It takes a special kind of person to build a strawman like that.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

How is this thread still going?

A bunch of people seem to want to pretend that me saying that raw scoring ranks and trophy counts are meaningless because of of the differences in competition is somehow wrong because scoring averages went up, and that Giroux is the same caliber of offensive player that we see in the top 5 of the scoring race today.

 

[Michael Farkas]

This is a great scouting report on both players. @Michael Farkas would be proud.

He sure is proud. That's bang on too. Nice work, js

 

[TheFinalWord]

I've been watching hockey for over 40 years at this point. And I freely admit that I am checking stats, because using verifiable information seems like a much better option than relying solely on my memory to convince people of what happened.

There's also only like 4 people disagreeing with me, and not a single one has convinced me that their reason is better yet.

And, I watched quite a few of those Sens games, and it was pretty clear that they all benefited from playing together. But that doesn't suggest Giroux was a better offensive player than Heatley.

I think the rest are just tired/bored/annoyed.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Were talking about the same giroux that mcdavid won an art ross against? Or is it huberdeau that 25 year old mcdavid beat by 8 points?

 

[wetcoast]

Neither Spezza and Alfredsson was even a consistent PPG player without Heatley, and both put up their 3 best seasons playing with him, so your claim that Heatley was a passenger on that line doesn't really seem to hold up to much scrutiny.

Except Alfie really was in the 4 years leading up to the lockout he was an even PPG and 13th overall in scoring.

Among the top 13 in scoring over that time period only the 1,2,3 scorers were above a PPG and then Thorton at 5th and Alfie at 13th who were both 1.00

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

spezza was too young and then too injured but was considered offensively excellent just his skating and effort level weren't elite.

I do agree that the accident/injuries hampered Heatley's ability to demonstrate his talent, but I strongly disagree that it made him less offensively talented. The skill was clearly there, even if his body was damaged.

As for Giroux, I agree he was a better passer, and better overall than post-accident Heatley. But, much like Spezza and Alfredsson, he wasn't a consistent PPG player for more than a couple of years at a time, so I struggle to say he's even the same caliber of offensive player as Heatley. To me, Giroux having 2 career seasons over 1.1 PPG (90 point pace), which occurred 6 years apart, doesn't even remotely suggest he's better offensively than a guy who had 4 seasons at 1.1 or higher in a 6 year (5 seasons) stretch. And that's ignoring the fact that Heatley could have easily had 6 90+ point seasons in 6 years without the accident and lockout.

But, I do appreciate you laying out your case, even if it isn't convincing.

Giroux does suffer from sometimes not having the production but his offensive skillset was better overall and he didn't play with excellent players like Heatley did and was also a much different players after the injury than before it.