Speculation: Who stays, who goes

[RemoAZ]

I yank the C and roll with OEL and Chych as the top two on the left side next season before I dump him for peanuts. It's not like we'll have so many big contracts we have to worry about his salary. We won't have enough good players to even think about budgets or cap for at least a few years. Sign a decent right D to play top 4 and give the kid a shot as the other. With Kuemper in goal that's the start of a solid D. Who else do you have to pay this season other than Garland? Does anyone think we'll actually sign a big money FA? No one is freaking out about OEL's salary or cap charge except people on message boards and the media.

 

[Gwyddbwyll]

Lol. Some posters here continue to believe he has actual value, claiming he is still good but is only being held back by his D partners. And everyone else is wrong because they believe in “the media!!” Lol.

The only one claiming people with different opinions must be totally wrong is you and probably XX too based on his subjective/objective post It's perfectly possible to hold different positions based on different evidence.

Personally I accept why XX and others hate OEL with a passion. He doesnt look good from their viewpoint. Like most of us I'm frustrated with OEL's lack of leadership and unimpressed with his stats. Then I watched him closer and what I see does not correlate to the numbers. In particular I see he almost never takes his eyes off Lyubushkin, always worrying about what breakdown he's going to have to cover next. That's also a valid viewpoint. Unless you believe Lyubushkin is a highly competent top 4 defenseman. That's the stretch you have to make in order to deny the point being made here.

Sports is not played on a spreadsheet.

 

[rt]

I yank the C and roll with OEL and Chych as the top two on the left side next season before I dump him for peanuts. It's not like we'll have so many big contracts we have to worry about his salary. We won't have enough good players to even think about budgets or cap for at least a few years. Sign a decent right D to play top 4 and give the kid a shot as the other. With Kuemper in goal that's the start of a solid D. Who else do you have to pay this season other than Garland? Does anyone think we'll actually sign a big money FA? No one is freaking out about OEL's salary or cap charge except people on message boards and the media.

OEL’s contract has six years left. I agree that the team won’t be competing for 2-3 years. OEL appears to be almost impossible to move right now. Will he be easier to move in 2-3 years when we do want to compete? When he’s older and worse and his cap-hit is the exact same? It would require attaching multiple first round picks to get out from under that.

 

[rt]

The only one claiming people with different opinions must be totally wrong is you and probably XX too based on his subjective/objective post It's perfectly possible to hold different positions based on different evidence.

Personally I accept why XX and others hate OEL with a passion. He doesnt look good from their viewpoint. Like most of us I'm frustrated with OEL's lack of leadership and unimpressed with his stats. Then I watched him closer and what I see does not correlate to the numbers. In particular I see he almost never takes his eyes off Lyubushkin, always worrying about what breakdown he's going to have to cover next. That's also a valid viewpoint. Unless you believe Lyubushkin is a highly competent top 4 defenseman. That's the stretch you have to make in order to deny the point being made here.

Sports is not played on a spreadsheet.

I think OEL is a good top four D. I think he’s overpaid by about 25% aav and about 40% in cash. His effectiveness as a player and a leader seems to be declining extraordinarily rapidly. And he has six years left.

The HMS OEL had and iceberg rip a hole about the size of Winnebago through its Hull and its taking on water fast. People are telling me we shouldn’t abandon ship because it’s not actually all the way under water yet. I’m saying we must abandon ship EXACTLY BECAUSE it’s not all the way under water yet. That’s the point. Why don’t we just wait until it’s too late? Well, because then it will be too late.

 

[lanky]

I'm not convinced that his decline is all about age and injury. I think a big part of it is who he's been paired with, and how he's been handled. I think he'll bounce back if he lands in a good environment. I really don't think he'll get that chance in AZ.

 

[Neighborhood Coyote]

OEL’s contract has six years left. I agree that the team won’t be competing for 2-3 years. OEL appears to be almost impossible to move right now. Will he be easier to move in 2-3 years when we do want to compete? When he’s older and worse and his cap-hit is the exact same? It would require attaching multiple first round picks to get out from under that.

Well, 2-3 years from now his actual salary decreases and the NHL won't be in flat cap world (that we know of). Retention might also not be so outlandish at that point either... So, is it at all plausible there may be a team out there that would trade for cap at that time a la the Yotes with Datsyuk and so on?

I guess my question is this... If he stayed another season and it doesn't go well, how much worse does his value get?

It appears many believe the Yotes will have to pay someone to take him off of their hands already (by taking bad contracts or sweetening the pot). So would it be that much worse next season if he happened to stay?

 

[rt]

Well, 2-3 years from now his actual salary decreases and the NHL won't be in flat cap world (that we know of). Retention might also not be so outlandish at that point either... So, is it at all plausible there may be a team out there that would trade for cap at that time a la the Yotes with Datsyuk and so on?

I guess my question is this... If he stayed another season and it doesn't go well, how much worse does his value get?

It appears many believe the Yotes will have to pay someone to take him off of their hands already (by taking bad contracts or sweetening the pot). So would it be that much worse next season if he happened to stay?

If he has another bad season, he’s got the worst contract in the nhl.

 

[PainForShane]

If he has another bad season, he’s got the worst contract in the nhl.

Clayton Keller might have something to say about that... =D

In all seriousness, OEL is still a top 4 D-man who maaaaaaaaybe might return to top pairing form. We only have 3 NHL D-men under contract for next year (Chych, OEL, Bush). Personally I don't feel Bush is even close to top 4 yet -- he hits people and plays hard but his positioning is very bad. Put a different way, if we're protecting a 1-goal lead late, he's the last person I'd want on the ice.

Regardless, we're undeniably overpaying OEL by maybe 3-4m of cap space per year, which is not that much of a hit -- why not give him a chance to get better. Let's see what he can do with a new coach (one who might actually have a competent offense!!), maybe he puts up 40-50 points next year and also has improved defensive numbers because Chych will likely see most of the heavy shutdown minutes. I think a scenario like the one above is not only possible but likely

 

[rt]

^ You guys are REALLY in here saying, "Wait, you want me to throw this perfectly functional clock out the window?!?!? Why don't we just wait a while and see if it actually blows up? If not, I can use this for all sorts of things. Could be my new kitchen timer. Or, at worst, a paper weight. I need a good paper weight..."

Wake up!

 

[Schemp]

^ You guys are REALLY in here saying, "Wait, you want me to throw this perfectly functional clock out the window?!?!? Why don't we just wait a while and see if it actually blows up? If not, I can use this for all sorts of things. Could be my new kitchen timer. Or, at worst, a paper weight. I need a good paper weight..."

Wake up!

I want to see if the lights come on when it reaches 0000!

 

[rt]

It's like "Hoarders Buried Alive - The Coyotes Message Board Edition"...

"I might use that OEL at some point...ya never know...it's a perfectly fine OEL..."

Guys. Just throw it out.

 

[lanky]

I was one of the hoarders that wanted to keep him one more year. I changed my mind when Bill was ragging on our leadership to the media. He's gone sour on OEL and he's made it public. Better to move on now.

 

[XX]

Good chance BA is stuck with him. I believe he'd go for a reasonable exit plan in terms of bad contracts/money, but one might not materialize.

 

[Jakey53]

Clayton Keller might have something to say about that... =D

In all seriousness, OEL is still a top 4 D-man who maaaaaaaaybe might return to top pairing form. We only have 3 NHL D-men under contract for next year (Chych, OEL, Bush). Personally I don't feel Bush is even close to top 4 yet -- he hits people and plays hard but his positioning is very bad. Put a different way, if we're protecting a 1-goal lead late, he's the last person I'd want on the ice.

Regardless, we're undeniably overpaying OEL by maybe 3-4m of cap space per year, which is not that much of a hit -- why not give him a chance to get better. Let's see what he can do with a new coach (one who might actually have a competent offense!!), maybe he puts up 40-50 points next year and also has improved defensive numbers because Chych will likely see most of the heavy shutdown minutes. I think a scenario like the one above is not only possible but likely

OEL wants out, and I don't blame him one bit. I don't see things changing in the foreseeable future. So far, GMBA hasn't demonstrated he can turn this franchise around. That could change in the next few weeks, or .....not.

 

[Jakey53]

I was one of the hoarders that wanted to keep him one more year. I changed my mind when Bill was ragging on our leadership to the media. He's gone sour on OEL and he's made it public. Better to move on now.

GMBA was bragging that the players deserved to be together for the playoff run, then, behind RT's coaching he starts ragging on the players.

 

[Jakey53]

Good chance BA is stuck with him. I believe he'd go for a reasonable exit plan in terms of bad contracts/money, but one might not materialize.

EVERY contract is moveable. It will depend if GMBA wants to dump OEL, or make a hockey trade.

 

[RemoAZ]

GMBA was bragging that the players deserved to be together for the playoff run, then, behind RT's coaching he starts ragging on the players.

How was he supposed to spin that? "Nobody would give us shit for our guys"? He put a good face on a bad situation. That's part of his job.

 

[Jakey53]

How was he supposed to spin that? "Nobody would give us shit for our guys"? He put a good face on a bad situation. That's part of his job.

True, but he could have got "something" instead of "nothing". I guess he was happy with our number of draft picks that we have.

 

[lanky]

We truly were in the playoff race though.
We fell out of the race incredibly quickly after the deadline so with hindsight it may seem like we didn't have a chance but we did. The players and coaches all had a hand in that collapse but I don't think the GM deserves blame in it.

 

[Jakey53]

We truly were in the playoff race though.
We fell out of the race incredibly quickly after the deadline so with hindsight it may seem like we didn't have a chance but we did. The players and coaches all had a hand in that collapse but I don't think the GM deserves blame in it.

Yeah, I agree. Hindsight is great.

 

[SpaceCoyote]

Chayka would have found a way to move OEL if needed. Unfortunately we went from the most active to the least active gm in the sport.

 

[KG]

Chayka would have found a way to move OEL if needed. Unfortunately we went from the most active to the least active gm in the sport.

In retrospect, I am not sure Chayka's propensity for activity was a positive thing for this franchise.

 

[Schemp]

In retrospect, I am not sure Chayka's propensity for activity was a positive thing for this franchise.

It's kinda like a disconnect between the analytics gm and the way he built this team for Tocchet's coaching style.

 

[Neighborhood Coyote]

If he has another bad season, he’s got the worst contract in the nhl.

Let's not forget about Skinner's contract with Buffalo.

 

[GiveAFlyingPuck]

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