Issue at this point is when can the Bruins contend again?
Team needs to operate like a submarine....the destroyers have seen us now...soon they will start tossing depth charges....time to take the ship down for awhile to safety....eventually the destroyers move away....(other successful teams get older and more expensive to retain roster) and the situation becomes safer (Bruins lose bad contracts, collect a few better draft picks, deal off aging players, develop young ones) allowing team err...submarine to resurface.
If we stay on the surface we might sink another ship....i.e. have one bounce back season and make the playoffs...but in the near term destruction is imminent....and even with that possible bounce back season this team is not going to contend next season without a couple of miraculous trades to fix the defense. On the contrary, it seems more likely that the Bruins get passed up by the likes of Florida and Columbus.
Going forward the Bruins will be at a point over the next couple of years where they have too many question marks instead of surefire answers. Given the aging of players and salary cap restraints it was somewhat inevitable although the personnel decisions haven't helped.
My preference would be to keep the guys that have a chance to still be playing at a high level the next time the Bruins have the possibility of being a serious contender which I think you have to put at 2017-2018...that is, barring a set of moves that blows everyone out of the water and a new team that really meshes well with whoever the (hopefully new) coach will be.
Out of the regular guys who have been in Boston/NHL more than a year I would really look to keep are the following….Rask, Hamilton, Krug, Bergeron, Marchand,…..Two young defensemen that can contribute offensively…and with Bergeron + Marchand you have 2/3 of a solid line. I think Marchand will put up 25 goals a year until he is 34-35 years old.
I suppose keeping Krejci is a good idea but it depends on what kind of team the GM wants to have. He just signed a big contract so he’s likely in Boston anyway. That said, he is a piece that could bring back a major return.
Smith could be dealt but my preference would be to hold onto him to see how he performs under another coach/system….He’s never going to be a world beater but he will continue to get stronger…he is moving into his prime years and he has more to give than what he showed this season.
I would lean toward holding onto Kelly + Chara for next year as well. I don’t think the Bruins would get much in return for them at this point and I’d want to have some veteran presence on what should be a young team….I don’t want an Edmonton situation. Besides, it doesn’t look good to push everyone out the door, and it’s not likely that this team is in the running for the Cup next year anyway. Showing these two guys respect is worthwhile to me. I don’t really want the Bruins to be a “cap team†next year anyway (at least in the traditional sense) so stashing Kelly on the 4th line at $3 million doesn’t really matter.
Out of the guys that are signed next season I’m looking to move Lucic and Eriksson for a couple of young defensemen and a young 3rd line type winger.
The UFA can all walk if they want to….Soderberg, Bartkowski, Paille, Campbell, McQuaid. It’s likely that even if they were kept they would not be playing a big role on the team 3 years down the road.
I don’t think the Bruins are going to “fall off a cliffâ€. The core has taken a step back due to aging of Chara + Seidenberg but the team is not bereft of talent and Rask will almost assuredly keep them out of the bottom 5 of the standings. I put more of the blame on the players and coach than on the roster construction. 96 points with a lukewarm effort on many occasions and countless wasted opportunities is not reflective of a team that lacks talent. If the team was good enough to go on some long winning streaks, then the team should have been good enough to avoid the long dry spells as well. Chiarelli was right in that they missed that extra effort….the hunger that I saw watching Ottawa wasn’t there with the Bruins. I suppose you can put that on lack of leadership but that shouldn’t have been a huge issue with a roster that has so many veteran players.
My primary consideration when analyzing the team is to put it in perspective with the other teams in the East especially with the divisional playoff format. I think in the near future it is going to be very difficult to qualify for the playoffs in the Atlantic Division. It already was this year considering 96 points did not get Boston in.
The elephant in the room is that heading into next year the Bruins have exactly 1 defenseman that they can count that when playing 20+ minutes a night will be a positive factor in helping the team win and that is Hamilton. Krug can play his 19-20 minutes but is essentially neutral in terms of value..but you keep him because he is young and his skill set is hard to find. I would venture a guess that one of Chara + Seidenberg has a bounce back season if both of them are around. So let’s say that’s 2 Top 4 guys that are going to help the team win most nights and a type of tweener in Krug. Looking around at the competition that probably isn’t going to be enough.
I think that for the next couple of years Tampa Bay and Montreal will for the most part be better than Boston. TB is stacked and is getting the latter years of Callahan’s effectiveness with his big contract….in a few years that one won’t look so good but it’s the price to be paid for trying to win…same as Chara + Seidenberg.
It is pretty clear to me that Florida is about to pass up Boston and therein lies the rub as they say. It seems likely that Florida is about to become a solid playoff team, and that leaves the Bruins battling for maybe a wild card spot or benefitting from a year when one of the other teams has major injuries and falls apart.
Ottawa has had this miraculous run but I don’t see them as an elite team in the near future. I suppose you give them the edge on Boston because the Sens have a young elite defenseman in Karlsson and other younger players in big roles but in my opinion Ottawa is a notch below Montreal and Tampa Bay now and in the medium term future below Florida….(even if the Sens matchup well against Montreal).
Detroit hasn’t contended for about 4 years now and have gotten a lot of young players in the lineup, but no one of the caliber of Datsyuk/Zetteberg who are their top 2 scorers this year but are nearing the end of the line as elite players. I think the Red Wings are going to be about an average team league wide and will also be passed up by Florida. Still, the Wings made the playoffs which is more than the Bruins can say.
So if we’re doing a pecking order for the near term future you have
Tampa Bay
Montreal
Florida
4 + 5 Ottawa/Detroit
6. Boston not far behind…maybe 85-90 pts? stuck in mediocrity
7. Buffalo - nowhere to go but up…but not necessarily a successful rebuild even with McDavid/Eichel
8. Toronto - will be completely blown up
Unfortunately I don’t see a way that the Bruins are not going to be in that middle ground area. They are not going to get markedly better because other teams have improved a good deal and the Bruins have lost hall of fame defenseman level play from Chara and no one can replace that. Also, the young players have to develop and aren’t ready to carry the weight yet. Still, they are not going to bottom out because they have some good players and a good goalie. So I guess Chiarelli (or whoever the new GM is) needs to just follow the natural progression looking to win trades….and that’s where Lucic + Eriksson and maybe Seidenberg come in. The Bruins in my opinion must sell on two out of these three guys who are slow of foot, will not improve but can still help contenders and the Bruins are not a contender anymore. Problem is that if you move Lucic the rest of the group of wingers is small non physical….but you can’t give him a big contract either and his effectiveness is declining…game is too fast for him.
My fear is that the natural progression of the organization toward a re-tool will be thwarted by pressure meddlesome ownership to make decisions in the short-term interest.