I think it really comes down to how he breaks the record.
Does he wow us with yet another 50 goal season, or at least a couple ~40-45+ goal seasons at his age, well on his way to eventually breaking the goal record, possibly even with a bit more playoff success thrown in there? Maybe an extra cup or an important role in a potential Olympic Gold medla? Ok - that seems like a lot of "stuff" he adds, maybe you make a case.
Does he do nothing really special, a bunch of ~30-35 goal seasons with super bad defense, and no real playoff success - yet eventually still break the record? I don't think he's adding a lot of "stuff" to his resume.
And even more - what if it's scenario 1, so a 50 goal season or maybe a couple of 40-45 goal seasons....but instead of beating 894 goals he ends up with....885? Does 11 goals more or less really make such a big difference?
I don't think beating the record would be insignificant - but you have to be able to justify and rationalize his case without the record. If not, any bump will seem unnatural. Yes even if having such a record should contribute to one's 'greatness'. Now if you want to argue that even without the record, based on his resume to date and what you expect him to do still, it should be enough to be above the others, that's fine, even if I don't agree.
Definitely see where you're coming from, but at the end of the day, if Ovechkin remains an effective goal scorer, it adds to his legacy in the "longevity" category (which many people ackowledge for players like Howe/Jagr etc.).
When talking about greatness, #1 all-time in raw goals > #2 all-time in raw goals. No-one discounts Gretzky's 894 for compiling goals (he didn't score more than 25 goals in any of his last 5 seasons). Scoring 30+ goals in this current era is a huge achievement, and significantly more so when you look at how old Ovi is.
Look no further than the best goal totals per 'x' aged season:
-> 35: Ovi was a lock for #2 at the minimum (short season and covid ruined that)
-> 36: 35 goals would be the 7th highest total ever
-> 37: 35 goals would be the 3rd highest total ever
-> 38: 31 goals would be the 2nd highest total ever
-> 39: 29 goals would be the 2nd highest total ever
These may only be 30-35 goal seasons, but they would still be some of the best goal scoring seasons of all-time based on his age. They would 100% be "special".
For what it's worth, Ovechkin is already the best goalscorer of all-time in my books (and has the best argument of anyone for it imo). But for a very large population of people, that doesn't push him up the ranks of a "greatest players of all time" list. But him having the irrefutable #1 most goals would definitely push the narrative for a lot of people.
