Speculation: Who Do The Kings Protect In The Expansion Draft

[salami]

Regarding Kopitar: He may be the most cerebral, communicative, and confident players I've met. Because of this, I very seriously doubt such criticisms of his leadership style. I believe Brown is an NHL captain, as is Kopitar.

 

[salami]

I think we're all aware of the reports that came through Hammond, but as starved as we are for hockey news, a small story can be blown out of proportion once we start discussing it on internet boards.

To me, it seems Sutter was like Gunnery Sgt. Hartman: he was hard, but he was fair. I subscribe to a certain school of thought on the matter, but I realize I could be wrong. In order to be a Stanley Cup winning head coach, one has to not only have a mastery of the game, but they must also be able to read their players and know how to get their best out of them. Look what happened to Brown's numbers after having the C removed in the summer of 2016.
He saw a 25% increase in '16/'17, and had his best NHL season ever in '17/'18 with a .75 points per game average, and then in '18/'19, he was at .71 points per game.

--- Regular Season --- ---- Playoffs ----
Season Team Lge GP G A Pts PIM GP G A Pts PIM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000-01 Guelph Storm OHL 53 23 22 45 50 4 0 0 0 10
2001-02 Guelph Storm OHL 63 41 32 73 56 9 8 5 13 14
2002-03 Guelph Storm OHL 58 34 42 76 89 11 7 8 15 6
2003-04 Los Angeles Kings NHL 31 1 4 5 16 -- -- -- -- --
2004-05 Manchester Monarchs AHL 79 29 45 74 96 6 5 2 7 10
2005-06 Los Angeles Kings NHL 79 14 14 28 80 -- -- -- -- --
2006-07 Los Angeles Kings NHL 81 17 29 46 54 -- -- -- -- --
2007-08 Los Angeles Kings NHL 78 33 27 60 55 -- -- -- -- --
2008-09 Los Angeles Kings NHL 80 24 29 53 64 -- -- -- -- --
2009-10 Los Angeles Kings NHL 82 24 32 56 41 6 1 4 5 6
2010-11 Los Angeles Kings NHL 82 28 29 57 67 6 1 1 2 6
2011-12 Los Angeles Kings NHL 82 22 32 54 53 20 8 12 20 34
2012-13 Zurich SC Swiss 16 8 5 13 26 -- -- -- -- --
2012-13 Los Angeles Kings NHL 46 18 11 29 22 18 3 1 4 8
2013-14 Los Angeles Kings NHL 79 15 12 27 66 26 6 8 14 22
2014-15 Los Angeles Kings NHL 82 11 16 27 26 -- -- -- -- --
2015-16 Los Angeles Kings NHL 82 11 17 28 30 5 0 1 1 4
2016-17 Los Angeles Kings NHL 80 14 22 36 22 -- -- -- -- --
2017-18 Los Angeles Kings NHL 81 28 33 61 58 4 0 1 1 4
2018-19 Los Angeles Kings NHL 72 22 29 51 24 -- -- -- -- --
2019-20 Los Angeles Kings NHL 66 17 18 35 22
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NHL Totals 1183 299 354 653 700 85 19 28 47 84

So assuming he was harder on Brown than other players, the logical question is: "why?" Well, each player should be treated differently because each player is different from his peers. This is a leadership fundamental that doesn't get discussed enough. It's entirely possible that the reason for the public nature of the dispute is because it would be more impactful on Brown's play...possible, not necessarily probable. It's that level of strategy that these coaches employ to be successful. So, long story short, being the professional that he is, I doubt that Brown harbors any hard feelings about it. It's pretty difficult to argue with the statistical improvement he saw YoY.




Oh, just in case somebody didn't get the Hartman reference:

 

[regulate]

Seems this thread has gone off-track again.

 

[salami]

Seems this thread has gone off-track again.

Nah, we good.

 

[Crownroyal21]

How many of these young prospects do they protect if they make the team? Turcotte, Kavilef, etc.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

How many of these young prospects do they protect if they make the team? Turcotte, Kavilef, etc.

Thankfully they’re ineligible for the expansion draft so they won’t require protection.

 

[Statto]

Protect them all, making them play in that logo is cruel...

 

[kilowatt]

No Kings' speeches for Dustin Brown

"They say actions speak louder than words; and he's yelling his leadership on the ice with the way he plays," said teammate Dustin Penner, who described Brown as a "relentless and tireless worker and a quiet leader."

The "quiet leader" saluted by other 2003 draft greats; magic tricks, game-changing hits and accountability - LA Kings Insider

Jeff Carter, on reconnecting with Brown when joining the team in 2012:
You grow up getting into the league at 18, you get married and have kids. Guys change a lot. Brownie, when I came in, he was still a quiet guy, but he was that quiet leader and you know when he said something in the room, everybody listened.

Dustin Brown has been delivering the big hits longer than any other player in Kings history

“He was so quiet in the room,” Robitaille said. “He would just sit quietly, but you could see him play like a tank.
“I still think he’s a shy guy. But it’s the way he played that’s the reason that he became a captain, and then he really took it upon himself to be a great leader. He went out of his way to learn to express himself. He’s always been a great quiet leader.”

Dustin Brown endures as one of the NHL’s most criticized captains

“In the room, I’m pretty quiet. I’m getting myself ready in-between periods. My vocal leadership is more in-game, on the bench. There’s more ups and down on the bench. It’s about keeping the guys upbeat,” said Brown.

--------------

I don't see how an argument can be made that Brown is a traditional leader and Kopitar is not, when the consensus around the club has always been that Brown let his play do the talking, which by my book would be classified as nontraditional.

Furthermore, Brown was removed as captain because he had 3 consecutive sub-30 point seasons (ignoring the preceding shortened 2013 season). Now I'm not really a "pressure of the captaincy" guy and certainly recognize that multiple factors, including the departure of Sutter and change in system, likely were contributors, but Brown had a clear offensive resurgence after the C was removed from his chest.

I believe one large contributor to this was the gradual change in officiating and rules, particularly in regards to hits to the head, and its effect on Brown's style of play. Referee's became very reactive to the big hits and on several instances Brown had been heavily penalized for hits that, upon review, followed the letter of the law. Off the top of my head I can think of the hit on Miettinen in 2010 in which he delivered an open ice shoulder-to-shoulder hit and was thrown out of the game for a headshot. DPS rescinded the match penalty the next day and called it a legal hit. Also the infamous hurtl of Hertl in 2013 in which he was also tossed but DPS did not impose any supplemental discipline for the collision. Brown expressed his frustration because he was following the rules, but still being tossed from games. He recognized that, as captain, he can't be getting tossed from games and struggled to remain effective while worrying about the ref's making the wrong call again.

Switching the captaincy to Kopitar was the right move, it allowed Brown to focus on playing his game. 147 points in 219 games the last 3 seasons vs 82 points in 243 games the last 3 seasons he was captain.

That’s not why Brown had a resurgence. Brown had another “down” year after he was stripped of his captaincy because Sutter wasn’t playing him as much. Notice that his time on ice went from around 16 minutes in his four down years to around 19 minutes in all of his up years. Those increased minutes also meant playing with Kopitar. I don’t think Brown lost anything, I think the team as a whole was done with Sutter.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Who is mandatory by the rules?

 

[redcard]

That’s not why Brown had a resurgence. Brown had another “down” year after he was stripped of his captaincy because Sutter wasn’t playing him as much. Notice that his time on ice went from around 16 minutes in his four down years to around 19 minutes in all of his up years. Those increased minutes also meant playing with Kopitar. I don’t think Brown lost anything, I think the team as a whole was done with Sutter.

Right, which is why I said "I certainly recognize that multiple factors, including the departure of Sutter and change in system, likely were contributors."

I'm not arguing that the removal of the captaincy was the sole or largest contributor to his resurgence, I am arguing that changes in the way referees penalize big hits during games, even when reviews proved them to be legal, was a point of frustration for Brown and his role as "lead by example on the ice" type captain compounded this and influenced his play given the extent by which his physicality has always been a key part of his game.

You score more points when you get more ice time, but you also get more ice time when you score more points. Both of these affect and are affected by your mentality on the ice, your confidence, etc. All of these impact and are impacted by your relationship with the coach. Its not a simple give the guy 3 more minutes and double his production nor is it take the letter off his shirt and double his production.

But at the end of the day, Brown isn't any less of a leader because he lost the letter. He didn't lose his voice in the locker room or the respect of his teammates. But he has certainly looked a lot better on the ice at 33-35 than he did at 28-29 and so whatever role change made was worth it.

 

[Bandit]

I don’t give a detachable penis what type of leader Brown is or was, he should never have been stripped of the C. It’s clear that his relationship with Sutter was the problem, and Sutter’s been gone for years. Brown is still here.

 

[TruKingFan]

I don’t give a detachable penis what type of leader Brown is or was, he should never have been stripped of the C. It’s clear that his relationship with Sutter was the problem, and Sutter’s been gone for years. Brown is still here.

I will agree with this. But understanding that the problem was Sutter and not Brown leads me to believe that who wears the actual “C” may not matter too much to the team now. Both Kopi and Brown have equal voices in the room - one just wears the letter on his jersey.

 

[regulate]

I thought this thread was about who the Kings were going to protect in the expansion draft, not a debate about Brown/Kopitar and Sutter.

 

[saintsnsoldiers]

Who is mandatory by the rules?

I believe Kopi and Doughty

 

[KopitarFAN]

I believe Kopi and Doughty

Not Kopitar according to the tool on CapFriendly, his NMC expires with the completion of this season.

At this point, depending on what they do in the off-season, like if they were to sign a noteworthy defenseman, 8 (3/5) and 1 might be the way to go, Amadio, Moore, Lizotte and Frk (unless he has a magic breakout season) can all kick rocks.

Note: they would obviously have to get MacDermid into enough games, or make a deal for them not to take whoever they expose between Walker and Roy.

 

[lumbergh]

Who is eligible to be drafted? Sorry if I missed this earlier in the thread, but I lost track with all the posts about how awesome Kopitar is.

 

[KopitarFAN]

Who is eligible to be drafted? Sorry if I missed this earlier in the thread, but I lost track with all the posts about how awesome Kopitar is.

Seattle Expansion Draft Simulator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

The easiest way to explain is anyone not on an ELC.

 

[Token]

Why are folks so hot on the 8/1 format and not the 7/3/1?

What undeniable talent do we have on D that needs protecting?

Doughty, Roy, Walker I can see, who else merits consideration?

Clague hasn’t shown much to date and is starting to smell like LaDue 2.0. Same with Durzi but he is exempt. Guys like that either break out or end up in Europe after their AHL careers.

Maybe Moverare but would he be better than a journeyman UFA like Fanta or Folin?

Up front at least we have hope Frk continues his scoring pace from last year.

Wags might be worth protecting for all the penalties he can draw on breakaways, even if he never gets his scoring touch going.

 

[kilowatt]

Why are folks so hot on the 8/1 format and not the 7/3/1?

What undeniable talent do we have on D that needs protecting?

Doughty, Roy, Walker I can see, who else merits consideration?

Clague hasn’t shown much to date and is starting to smell like LaDue 2.0. Same with Durzi but he is exempt. Guys like that either break out or end up in Europe after their AHL careers.

Maybe Moverare but would he be better than a journeyman UFA like Fanta or Folin?

Up front at least we have hope Frk continues his scoring pace from last year.

Wags might be worth protecting for all the penalties he can draw on breakaways, even if he never gets his scoring touch going.

Clague is only 22. LaDue was a sixth-round pick hyped up because we didn't have any valuable prospects. Clague is a second-round pick underhyped because we have so many talented prospects. Clague is by no means old. The basic question is who do we value more? One of Clague/Walker/Roy, or one of Lizotte/Wagner/Frk/Grundstrom?

The way I see it, we either go 8/1, which would look like:

• Kopitar
• Iafallo
• Kempe
• Grundstrom
• Doughty
• Roy
• Walker
• Clague
• Petersen

Or we go 7/3/1, and protect:

• Kopitar
• Iafallo
• Kempe
• Grundstrom
• Wagner
• Lizotte
• Frk
• Doughty
• Walker
• Roy
• Petersen

But in the 7/3/1 scenario, I have to imagine the Kings would try to trade one of Walker or Clague to try to get some type of asset for them. Losing a bottom-six forward like Wagner, Lizotte, or Frk doesn't really hurt the team much. Losing a potentially valuable defenseman does.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I can't see this team giving up a d-man with all the talented forward prospects in the pipeline but the relative lack of d-men.

But it's also really really early to have this conversation as someone will likely force themselves into protection this year. Grundstrom either becomes something or nothing, for example.

 

[kilowatt]

I can't see this team giving up a d-man with all the talented forward prospects in the pipeline but the relative lack of d-men.

But it's also really really early to have this conversation as someone will likely force themselves into protection this year. Grundstrom either becomes something or nothing, for example.

Yeah, you could convince me that the Kings only have three forwards they need to protect or that they have seven to protect. Grundstrom, Wagner, Lizotte, and Frk are a big group of what ifs that I almost don't care to lose. At the same time, Clague is just as much of a question mark as the four forwards. I think what that really tells me is the Kings only have six players that they absolutely have to protect, which is actually kind of a blessing: Kopitar, Iafallo, Kempe, Doughty, Walker, Roy. I think that means our team sucks.

 

[Mats26]

Clague is only 22. LaDue was a sixth-round pick hyped up because we didn't have any valuable prospects. Clague is a second-round pick underhyped because we have so many talented prospects. Clague is by no means old. The basic question is who do we value more? One of Clague/Walker/Roy, or one of Lizotte/Wagner/Frk/Grundstrom?

The way I see it, we either go 8/1, which would look like:

• Kopitar
• Iafallo
• Kempe
• Grundstrom
• Doughty
• Roy
• Walker
• Clague
• Petersen

Or we go 7/3/1, and protect:

• Kopitar
• Iafallo
• Kempe
• Grundstrom
• Wagner
• Lizotte
• Frk
• Doughty
• Walker
• Roy
• Petersen

But in the 7/3/1 scenario, I have to imagine the Kings would try to trade one of Walker or Clague to try to get some type of asset for them. Losing a bottom-six forward like Wagner, Lizotte, or Frk doesn't really hurt the team much. Losing a potentially valuable defenseman does.

No need to protect Iafallo. He is a UFA. Kings can simply make a hand shake deal with him and tell Seattle that he will sign back with us after the expansion draft. Caps did the same with TJ Oshie. Gives us an extra slot to protect a player.

 

[HookKing]

Everyone is assuming Blake won't make any trades or sign any UFA's. With all those teams in cap trouble and tons of forward spots available for protection he would be crazy not to work some trades to get some serious upgrades up front or on D. The worst scenario is either Walker or Clague (or both) gets exposed. Hardly a catastrophe.

 

[Token]

Isn’t there also a 70/40 games played requirement that needs to be met?

That could be a sneaky way to game the system.

We will have quite a few D prospects in Ontario and one could conceivably rotate them to keep a few under the required 39 games.

 

[Sparky206]

The requirement is on us that we have to expose one D player whos played 40/70 games. MacD will need to play 25 games next year to meet that otherwise we would have to expose one of Roy or Walker if someone else doesnt play 40.

You could game the system and leave Clague in the minors for the season and end up realistically only exposing:

Carter
Brown
Amadio
Moore

MacD

Quick

Clague or a 4th D that needs protecting really is the key, if you go the 7/3 route I cant even find a 7th forward worth protecting if Iafallo remains unsigned to avoid protecting but at that stage your almost forcing seattle to take Quick which the podcast said isnt LAs preference