I’m not sure about all fan bases towards one team, but I think teams overrated by their own fan base might include :
1. Islanders: they weren’t at all an awful team massively overachieving with major unsustainable stats... but there is a distinct possibility they were overachieving to some extent, but I think I’ve seen a lot of isles fans and some others very confident they’re among the top 1-2 division contenders.
New coach-boost; two goalies putting up numbers they might not necessarily repeat (and the primary replaced by an injury prone goalie); behind a defensemen group that, before the season, nobody would have said was tops; bottom 6 players way outperforming their norm at least part of the season, etc.
Not only team strength itself but, regarding their chance at topping the division, you also have to consider every other team too. Arguably the isles did improve some, but so did basically the whole division. And the usual leaders Caps maybe haven’t lost as much as some people confidently believe, and the Pens could do better than last season. A number of solid contenders to take points away. I think the timing of teams cold/hot streaks will be huge this year for the division.
2. Flyers quite possibly didn’t improve as much as some people think... Niskanen didn’t exactly play much better than Gudas last year, goalie is relatively unproven and I have no idea who is backup is
Really I’m not super comfortable predicting their standings chances until I actually see some games, because like I said really the whole division has improved and everybody could be taking expected points away from everybody.
But until I see otherwise, I’ll always assume
1/2: Caps/Pens
2/3: someone else