Who’s the goalie guru on HF Habs?

[sandviper]

No one

I don't think playing goal at a high level really makes you any less of an armchair analyst here

(myself included)

So, are you saying playing goal at a high level makes you more of an analyst? If so, I would agree.

There’s a lot of intangibles and yeah, analysts with goaltending backgrounds are not going to be right all the time. However, I think if you’ve played the sport you’re critiquing at a higher level, you understand things regular armchair folks don’t get.

I never played goalie at a high level, just house and even then that was part time. I was a forward in my competitive years, but I get how much pressure there was and how challenging it can be for goalies.

As a coach now, I coach my goalies on technique and strategies (as best as I can make 12 year-olds understand) but I can’t really help them on the mental side. It’s tough since I’m no child psychologist but I know in games we’re getting shelled, it’s heartbreaking for my goalie as he’s fending for himself.

I talk with parents who like to just complain sometimes but in the end, they aren’t on the ice. It’s easy to comment from the stands, but facing odd man rushes or not knowing if your defence is covering the pass option is a lot to process in mere seconds.

But my point is that it is easy to just slam players but those who play the position I respect their opinions since they’ve gone through it themselves.

 

[HOPE]

Certainly not me. I consider myself very good at gauging talent. But theres a reason i never talk about goaltenders, i just can’t evaluate them for shit.

 

[Maffew]

I think the stats side is merely a way of classifying a goalie into a tier, but doesn't say much about particular strengths and weaknesses, or the effectiveness of his decision-making or the team in front of him. Luck and bounces can play such a significant part of a game's results, and that can really make or destroy a goalie's numbers.

This is why I think there's a valid reason why at the end of the day, coaches and players all tend to say the same names over and over when asked about who is the toughest or most intimidating. The eye test is really your best bet.

(from someone with zero ice hockey goaltending experience)

 

[Fixxer]

It's in French and only stats in the pictures, but you guys can have a look :

Price's stats since being pulled by Michel Therrien on December 16th 2016...
https://www.rds.ca/hockey/canadiens...retire-du-match-du-16-decembre-2016-1.6451886

First picture is about his last 100 starts and how he compares with other no.1 in the league.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I play goalie myself. I feel i can give a different angle on certain plays or goals or saves that might be different then someone else who never played the position. Yes I defend Price often. I feel people fet on him for no reason except of his 10.5 m per year. I get it but goals against are not all on the goalie.

If team Canada picked a roster today, Price is the starter ahead of Fleury. They don't have to worry about his cap hit and the D in front of him would have zero holes.

You are correct, people are all over him due to how much money he is being paid. He is still a legit top 10 goalie and when you get past that he is about $2M overpaid, you start to realize he is still one of the best in the world.

The only problem is health. One full season in the last 3. He needs to stay healthy

 

[Habs Halifax]

It's in French and only stats in the pictures, but you guys can have a look :

Price's stats since being pulled by Michel Therrien on December 16th 2016...
https://www.rds.ca/hockey/canadiens...retire-du-match-du-16-decembre-2016-1.6451886

First picture is about his last 100 starts and how he compares with other no.1 in the league.

Using two of the last 3 seasons where he had nagging injuries is not a fair evaluation. It reeks of propaganda to prove he is not a good goalie. If he plays a full year this year and the Habs keep doing what they have been doing, lets look at this production then.

Lets not jump on him in the seasons he was hurt. It sucks he couldn't stay healthy but to make attempts of justifying how he looks against other goalies using injury seasons is not something I value.

 

[cactusjack]

It seems rather hard to judge a goalie on stats because it's so relevant of how the team play in front of him. In Price's case it might be even harder due to his playing style. So technical/sqaure to the puck that saves seems easy for him. So you have the impression that after the game he made very few key saves because he's not fancy/spectacular. In fact most of the time that he did make a spectacualar save, it's because he wasn't in a good position to begin with.

Should he make more saves, probably yes, but it's the start of the season, and there is more goals everywhere. Rask/Holtby/ and many others are having trouble so far. Many are evaluating/ expecting of him with eyes of his Hart season. Of course he will look worse thant that year. Scoring his up, he has a yound defensive squad around him and you can't have a Hart year every season. I think for many the problem is the $$$. If he was paid 4-6M no one would talk about Price play ( we should talk about Drouin and Alzner for that regard) .

 

[zzoo]

Like i posted before. Save% can be deceiving or means ****. Its like a +/- in some way.

Sometime you can get scored 3 times on 7 shots but the 3 goals were tic tac toes or impossible shots to stop and sometimes you can stop 20 shots and none of them are scoring chances or shots from the outside.

A plus minus is the same thing. If one of your teamate gives it away and they score you get a minus but you are not even implicated in the play. Or a goalie gives up a softie like Condon did vs Arizona. All 5 skaters ends up with a minus but were they to blame on the goal?

Goalie saving % is a bit like Poker game. In a small sample (few games or few hands in Poker), the saving % is not very relevant. But at much longer term, that stats make more sense. Like Poker, in one hand, the luck plays a major role, but in a long session, a better Poker player will beat the worse player.

 

[WeThreeKings]

One of the new goalie stats is goals saved above average. Which is essentially pitting a goalie against his peers and determining how many goals the goalie has saved given his save percentage vs the league average save percentage on the same number of shots.

The flaw with this stat is not all shots are equal so it doesn't take into account where the saves are coming from.

I think the best indicator of a goalies performance is really their save percentage in high danger areas. Which is the slot and surrounding areas around the face off circles. I don't know if anyone tracks that. But if you can find those shot cluster charts, you might be able to eyeball it.

 

[covfefe]

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

These guys track exactly that, but I'm not sure what criteria they are using to determine what constitutes a high danger chance.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

These guys track exactly that, but I'm not sure what criteria they are using to determine what constitutes a high danger chance.

I also found Corsica tracks some advanced goalie stats. Problem is they don't really explain them so it's making me research what it stands for, I am guessing what they mean.

Metrically though, anyway you Alice it, Price hasn't been very good. Gibson and Vasy have been though.

 

[Fixxer]

Using two of the last 3 seasons where he had nagging injuries is not a fair evaluation. It reeks of propaganda to prove he is not a good goalie. If he plays a full year this year and the Habs keep doing what they have been doing, lets look at this production then.
Lets not jump on him in the seasons he was hurt. It sucks he couldn't stay healthy but to make attempts of justifying how he looks against other goalies using injury seasons is not something I value.

Although I can say it was hard to tell, my goal was not to put down Carey Price.
I was watching the show where they took these numbers (l'anti-chambre - RDS.ca) and decided to share them.
Sure, the whole team slumped for stretches during these 100 starts. Stats remains numbers which can be deceiving and be interpreted in many ways.

The whole point they made was that since allowing 4 goals in like 13 shots.. and being pulled by Therrien in December 2016 against the Sharks (and he did stare at Therrien going down the hallway...) his numbers haven't been up to par.
It would be easier to assess his effectiveness had the team played 2-3 season in a row with considerable success.
The only thing I can tell.. but it's not about this year.
I watched his 2017-2018 highlights.... then his 2014-2015... and he just doesn't seem as aware, as mobile as focused, say it how you want.

I have a difficult time rating Price. Technically, Elite. Well, it's been more difficult toward the last years.
I see his as a good to great starter, solid enough. Elite potential, but not consistent. Can be a Star but no Superstar.
As they said in the show, the issue is mostly that he has not had a stretch where he is dominant. Consistency and focus mostly lacking. Anyway.... yeah, we'll need to find that goalie guru. lol ... and it's Not me!!

 

[Frank Drebin]

One of the new goalie stats is goals saved above average. Which is essentially pitting a goalie against his peers and determining how many goals the goalie has saved given his save percentage vs the league average save percentage on the same number of shots.

The flaw with this stat is not all shots are equal so it doesn't take into account where the saves are coming from.

I think the best indicator of a goalies performance is really their save percentage in high danger areas. Which is the slot and surrounding areas around the face off circles. I don't know if anyone tracks that. But if you can find those shot cluster charts, you might be able to eyeball it.

It's basically a factor of games played and sv% compared to the average, you can't have a high gsaa without both a lot of games played and a higher than average sv%.

I think it tracks performance to peers. I was surprised that prices hart season wasn't one of the higher ones even when he had his sv% closer to .940.

Winners here:
NHL Progressive Leaders and Records for Goals Saved Above Average | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[JoelWarlord]

I also found Corsica tracks some advanced goalie stats. Problem is they don't really explain them so it's making me research what it stands for, I am guessing what they mean.

From left to right, after first four which are obvious (although its TOI, SA, and GA at 5v5 which is why the raw numbers are different):

• Sv% is just raw 5v5 Sv%,
• xSv% is Expected Sv% based on shot location (what sv% an NHL goalie should be expected to have based on the location of shots they faced as an individual). This is similar to Corsica's xG (expected goals) models at the team level that assign shot value based on shot location and I believe shot type (slap, wrist, one-timer, rush, etc).
• dSv% is the Delta/Difference in save percentage compared to xSv%. Right now Price at -0.46 means he's been 0.46% worse than a league average goalie would be expected to perform against the same shots.
  
• LDsv%, MDsv%, and HDsv%, are save percentages broken down by Low, Medium, and High danger shots faced. I believe for Corsica low is shots from a location with less than 3% chance or something like that (unblocked shots only, so if Price stops a shot that came from a location where less than 3% of unblocked shots are goals, it's considered a Low-Danger save). I think MD is like 3-8% and HD is 8%+ or something like that. These aren't specific areas of the ice, some places define HD as between the faceoff circles and below the tops of the circles, but Corsica determines LD/MD/HD based on the actual scoring percentages for unblocked shots from certain spots on the ice.
• GSAA is Goals Saved Above Average, essentially how many goals a guy saved (or how many extra he's allowed) versus league average goaltending.

Obviously there's flaws because the data all stems from NHL statkeepers recording shot locations and then those shot locations are used to calculate xG/xSv% and those inputs aren't perfect and don't have any way of accounting for pre-shot movement, but it's still a valuable resource and it's not like Price is being unfairly underrated by these kinds of stats any more than another goalie. When it's a human statkeeper there's going to be mistakes in where the statkeepers say the shots came from, but we're talking about thousands of shots and that stuff more or less comes out in the wash for these purposes.

EDIT: Here's the more detailed explanation from Corsica. Also might be worth reading this explanation of the underlying logic of xG and weighting shot value by location etc. The same logic that's used for xG models is basically just used in the inverse to calculate xSv%.

 

[Fixxer]

Picture taken in 2015... before Fleury got his 10th shutout.... so to say, while Price was 1st in the 4 major goaltender categories.

 

[Canadienna]

Using two of the last 3 seasons where he had nagging injuries is not a fair evaluation. It reeks of propaganda to prove he is not a good goalie. If he plays a full year this year and the Habs keep doing what they have been doing, lets look at this production then.

Lets not jump on him in the seasons he was hurt. It sucks he couldn't stay healthy but to make attempts of justifying how he looks against other goalies using injury seasons is not something I value.

If you're in the lineup, you gotta be able to play. Dismissing 100 games because he had nagging injuries is too far imo.

No one's jumping on him. I just don't think he's playing well enough, he's got to do better, and even contract aside just from his role on the team he has to perform to a higher level than he has been for the past 100 games.

EDIT: As far as the reeking of propaganda, I have zero agenda against Price. He's from my neck of the woods, playing my position on my favourite team, love his attitude, he's probably one of my favourite guys in the game. He says he needs to be better, and he is right.

 

[Frank Drebin]

From left to right, after first four which are obvious (although its TOI, SA, and GA at 5v5 which is why the raw numbers are different):

• Sv% is just raw 5v5 Sv%,
• xSv% is Expected Sv% based on shot location (what sv% an NHL goalie should be expected to have based on the location of shots they faced as an individual). This is similar to Corsica's xG (expected goals) models at the team level that assign shot value based on shot location and I believe shot type (slap, wrist, one-timer, rush, etc).
• dSv% is the Delta/Difference in save percentage compared to xSv%. Right now Price at -0.46 means he's been 0.46% worse than a league average goalie would be expected to perform against the same shots.
  
• LDsv%, MDsv%, and HDsv%, are save percentages broken down by Low, Medium, and High danger shots faced. I believe for Corsica low is shots from a location with less than 3% chance or something like that (unblocked shots only, so if Price stops a shot that came from a location where less than 3% of unblocked shots are goals, it's considered a Low-Danger save). I think MD is like 3-8% and HD is 8%+ or something like that. These aren't specific areas of the ice, some places define HD as between the faceoff circles and below the tops of the circles, but Corsica determines LD/MD/HD based on the actual scoring percentages for unblocked shots from certain spots on the ice.
• GSAA is Goals Saved Above Average, essentially how many goals a guy saved (or how many extra he's allowed) versus league average goaltending.

Obviously there's flaws because the data all stems from NHL statkeepers recording shot locations and then those shot locations are used to calculate xG/xSv% and those inputs aren't perfect and don't have any way of accounting for pre-shot movement, but it's still a valuable resource and it's not like Price is being unfairly underrated by these kinds of stats any more than another goalie. When it's a human statkeeper there's going to be mistakes in where the statkeepers say the shots came from, but we're talking about thousands of shots and that stuff more or less comes out in the wash for these purposes.

These stats count a shot from the slot by jordie Benn the same as a shot from the same place by his brother, yeah?

 

[JoelWarlord]

These stats count a shot from the slot by jordie Benn the same as a shot from the same place by his brother, yeah?

Yeah there's no shooter quality element to it, but in a roundabout way those things are baked in to the leaguewide numbers used to calculate xG for shot locations. Jordie Benn shooting from the slot is less likely to score than Jamie Benn, but if we're calculating the odds of scoring a goal from the slot based on tens of thousands of shots from the slot a lot more of those shots used to calculate the xSv% are going to be from a Jamie Benn type of player rather than a Jordie Benn. Or at the very least, a randomly selected shot from the slot is probably more likely to be from a Charles Hudon than a Jordie Benn.

Because of that the model probably slightly underrates what should be the real expected save percentage on a shot from Jamie Benn in the slot, but it also probably overrates the expected save percentage on a shot from Jordie Benn or David Desharnais in the slot. I wouldn't use it in a single game to definitively say that Price played well or poorly because the model probably could punish Price for being scored on by Stamkos and Kucherov (although the question you have to ask is why are you paying a guy 10.5M if you're just going to shrug your shoulders when Kucherov or Jamie Benn score on him), but it also might say Price had a great game and outperformed his xSv% because he stopped Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader from the slot a few times.

Where it has value is looking at 10, or 20, or 60+ games playing against 30 different teams and 400+ different forwards. If we're looking at 4000 shots from 400 different forwards and 200 defensemen from 30 teams and Price hasn't stopped shots from the slot or from the top of the circles any better than a league average goalie would be expected to facing shots from the same locations, it's a big concern given the level he's expected to play at.

 

[strongcomp05]

really dont need an expert to tell me price is not good right now. hes not horrible, but hes nowhere where we need him to be, which is fine for now because TANK. but were f***ed with him for another 7 years

 

[Genesis76]

There’ll come a day Genesis where there’s a starting goalie for this team that we mutually respect. Although I will miss the civil war once it’s over.

I feel you have a twisted perseption of what a good goalie should be.
You're not objective about it and you don't trust your intinct.


When you will realise that a goalie like Halak (5.10'', drafted in the 9th round) has better chances to take you further in the playoffs than Price (6.2'' drafted #5 overall) we then might have a chance.
But if you're like Ron Fournier who's only job is to brain wash people's mind then forget about it.

Him and Danny Dube said Carey Price had a great game in NYR.....

 

[nhlfan9191]

I feel you have a twisted perseption of what a good goalie should be.
You're not objective about it and you don't trust your intinct.


When you will realise that a goalie like Halak (5.10'', drafted in the 9th round) has better chances to take you further in the playoffs than Price (6.2'' drafted #5 overall) we then might have a chance.
But if you're like Ron Fournier who's only job is to brain wash people's mind then forget about it.

Him and Danny Dube said Carey Price had a great game in NYR.....

How many goalies under 6 feet are left in the NHL Genesis? Then tell me how many have entered in the last 5 years and how many project in the near future. And then tell me my perception of how the game has evolved is twisted. And I’ve been critiquing Price’s game for over a year so try again.

 

[TT1]

Goalies = all about confidence, goalies who are mentally strong tend to be less shaky/are more consistent.. which Price isn't.

 

[Mrb1p]

Anyone with a basic understanding of physics can understand what is happening between the pipes.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Anyone with a basic understanding of physics can understand what is happening between the pipes.

Physics?

 

[Mrb1p]

Physics?

Yes, physics. It's just basic movements of two bodies on a set plane, goaltending is basically the first chapter of any physics book.