Which five player core would you build around?

[NJ DevLolz]

I’m just happy that I knew before opening this thread that the Rangers would be an option.

Kind of cheap when the Rangers have guys 2010 and 2011 draft eligible when other teams have guys from 2015 on. It's apples and oranges

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

There is nothing advanced or predictive about using goals and primary assists that actually happened at 5-on-5 in order to compare which player is better at 5-on-5.



Every argument made in favor of Rantanen being better than Reinhart is based on sorting the “P” column on NHL dot com.

All I am doing, in response to somebody else bringing up 5-on-5 play, is actually making the distinction between scoring at 5-on-5 and scoring at all situations.



You literally showed two players that didn’t even out-score the other two players at 5-on-5, and I clearly explained to you why that comparison would have been utterly meaningless even if you were right.

I don’t care what you care about. I am responding to somebody else who said that Rantanen is better than Reinhart at 5-on-5. They specified 5-on-5; not me. I have provided evidence which suggests that their claim is actually not true, and am still waiting for any kind of rebuttal to my argument.

This season Reinhart had 11 more EV points than Rantanen because he played 27 more games.

Last season Rantanen had 4 more EV points in 6 less games played.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

This season Reinhart had 11 more EV points than Rantanen because he played 27 more games.

Last season Rantanen had 4 more EV points in 6 less games played.

Do you still not understand that “EV”, which includes 3-on-3, 4-on-4, 5-on-6, 6-on-5, and 5-on-5 is not the same thing as 5-on-5?

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Do you still not understand that “EV”, which includes 3-on-3, 4-on-4, 5-on-6, 6-on-5, and 5-on-5 is not the same thing as 5-on-5?

Non-power play points lol. Whatever you want to call it.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Non-power play points lol. Whatever you want to call it.

Well, you’re actually not looking at non-power play points, because then you would also include short handed points. Either way, that’s not what I’m looking at; I am looking at 5-on-5, in response to another poster who said that Rantanen is better at 5-on-5.

 

[El Travo]

Ok now tell me how often he got to touch the puck while on the ice.

You'd think that a player that's better than Rantanen would get to touch the puck once in awhile, hey?

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Well, you’re actually not looking at non-power play points, because then you would also include short handed points. Either way, that’s not what I’m looking at; I am looking at 5-on-5, in response to another poster who said that Rantanen is better at 5-on-5.

Oh, ok, gotcha. I would of thought non-power play points would consist mostly of 5-on-5 points.

Either way, Reinhart is a tier below Rantanen as an overall player.

 

[hamzarocks]

There is nothing advanced or predictive about using goals and primary assists that actually happened at 5-on-5 in order to compare which player is better at 5-on-5.



Every argument made in favor of Rantanen being better than Reinhart is based on sorting the “P” column on NHL dot com.

All I am doing, in response to somebody else bringing up 5-on-5 play, is actually making the distinction between scoring at 5-on-5 and scoring at all situations.



You literally showed two players that didn’t even out-score the other two players at 5-on-5, and I clearly explained to you why that comparison would have been utterly meaningless even if you were right.

I don’t care what you care about. I am responding to somebody else who said that Rantanen is better than Reinhart at 5-on-5. They specified 5-on-5; not me. I have provided evidence which suggests that their claim is actually not true, and am still waiting for any kind of rebuttal to my argument.

Your doing what some leaf fans do when it comes to matthews/Matthews marner in order to justify them being worth their contracts right now? Why focus on primarily 5v5 points/60? 5v5 isnt the whole game and isnt the sole indicator of a players ability and offensive value. Take for instance if you look at EV ppg/82 over the past two years rantanen produces

18/19 --> ~60 in 82 (EV ppg =0.730)
19/20 --> ~53 in 82 (EV ppg = 0.643)
that is with his gross leg injury this year which hurt his overall play)

Reinhart the past two seasons once being given more minutes has produced at a EV ppg/82 of

18/19 --> 50 in 82 (EV ppg = 0.610)
19/20 --> ~45 in 82 (EV ppg =0.550)

Reinhart these two years has played 18:57 and 20:38 while rantanen has played 20:51 and 18:57. Overall rienhart plays on average 19.48 minutes per game over the past two years while rantanen plays 19.54 mins. They play nearly identical amounts so neither has an advantage in minutes played. Both play high end minutes on the powerplay and at EV being among the team leaders in minutes played for forwards. Per 60 stats are used in situations to prop up guys who play less minutes but produce at incredible levels during that time and people assume those minutes will hold constantly across a full game duration. Rantanen even ends up coming out ahead in 5v5 ppg/82 over the past two years. He has 63 in 116 (45 5v5 in 82 with his injury filled 2020 year) while reinhart has 79 in 151 (43 5v5 pts per 82 games)

We see rantanen score around 10 EV points more than reinhart per game he out produces reinhart over the past two years on powerplay (not surprising he has better hands and vision than reinhart when you watch the two play). Narrowing it down to 5v5 just to pretend reinhart is being held back and is similar/better than rantanen is a manipulation. Reinhart had succsess as a PP producer his first three years. He struggled at EV offense. Once he got more usage the past two seasons he has become less effective on the pp with superior offensive talents taking better touches than him (olofsson being a guy who has stolen looks but has produced while doing so). Reinhart has not shown he can produce top end offense both at 5v5, EVS, and PP at the same time like rantanen has. Rantanen can give 60ish EV points along with 30ish PP points. Reinhart has not shown the ability to produce at this level at EVS or at PP at the same time like rantanen.

 

[Mitch nylander]

You’d rather have Nylander/Teravainen as a building block over Dahlin?

Maybe you didn't understand my formatting...

out of all the options for 1 - I chose Mackinnon - (Mackinnon, Matthews, Eichel, Panarin, Aho)
Out of all the options for 2 - I chose Marner | (Marner, Rantanen, Svech, Cozens, Zibby)
Out of all the options for 3 - I chose Teravainen/Nylander out of (Nylander, Teravainen, Reinhart, Nishushkin, Kakko)
For 4 - I choose Dahlin out of (Dahlin, Makar, Rielly, Fox and Slavin)
For 5 - I choose Girard out of (Girard, Hamilton, Sandin, Ristolainen, Deangelo)
------

That makes Colorado 1, Toronto 2, Carolina 3, Buffalo 4, NYR 5..

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Your doing what some leaf fans do when it comes to matthews/Matthews marner in order to justify them being worth their contracts right now? Why focus on primarily 5v5 points/60? 5v5 isnt the whole game and isnt the sole indicator of a players ability and offensive value. Take for instance if you look at EV ppg/82 over the past two years rantanen produces

18/19 --> ~60 in 82 (EV ppg =0.730)
19/20 --> ~53 in 82 (EV ppg = 0.643)
that is with his gross leg injury this year which hurt his overall play)

Reinhart the past two seasons once being given more minutes has produced at a EV ppg/82 of

18/19 --> 50 in 82 (EV ppg = 0.610)
19/20 --> ~45 in 82 (EV ppg =0.550)

Reinhart these two years has played 18:57 and 20:38 while rantanen has played 20:51 and 18:57. Overall rienhart plays on average 19.48 minutes per game over the past two years while rantanen plays 19.54 mins. They play nearly identical amounts so neither has an advantage in minutes played. Both play high end minutes on the powerplay and at EV being among the team leaders in minutes played for forwards. Per 60 stats are used in situations to prop up guys who play less minutes but produce at incredible levels during that time and people assume those minutes will hold constantly across a full game duration. Rantanen even ends up coming out ahead in 5v5 ppg/82 over the past two years. He has 63 in 116 (45 5v5 in 82 with his injury filled 2020 year) while reinhart has 79 in 151 (43 5v5 pts per 82 games)

We see rantanen score around 10 EV points more than reinhart per game he out produces reinhart over the past two years on powerplay (not surprising he has better hands and vision than reinhart when you watch the two play). Narrowing it down to 5v5 just to pretend reinhart is being held back and is similar/better than rantanen is a manipulation. Reinhart had succsess as a PP producer his first three years. He struggled at EV offense. Once he got more usage the past two seasons he has become less effective on the pp with superior offensive talents taking better touches than him (olofsson being a guy who has stolen looks but has produced while doing so). Reinhart has not shown he can produce top end offense both at 5v5, EVS, and PP at the same time like rantanen has. Rantanen can give 60ish EV points along with 30ish PP points. Reinhart has not shown the ability to produce at this level at EVS or at PP at the same time like rantanen.

Somebody else specifically brought up 5-on-5 and made the definitive statement that Rantanen is superior to Reinhart at 5-on-5 and I addressed it. Accurately addressing the claims that somebody else actually made is not manipulation.

 

[hamzarocks]

Somebody else specifically brought up 5-on-5 and made the definitive statement that Rantanen is superior to Reinhart at 5-on-5. EV is not the same thing as 5V5.

But the way you've been commenting on then comes across as you believe reinhart is generally a superior player to rantanen? Not sure if that's what you meant but even just looking at 5v5 points/60 you/other poster found reinhart produced 8% higher than rantanen. If we assume per 60 stats are constant and will hold a players raw production than I'm curious who has a generally higher pt/60? It would have to be rantanen right? He out produces him by 20-25 points these past two years while playing nearly identical minutes.

Maybe reinhart is a little bit better than rantanen at 5v5(doubt this b/c it assumes per 60 stats will hold current production and also includes a year where rantanen had his leg messed up resulting in lower production than what youd expect based on his progression stage but I'll give him that for now), however rantanen still wins pretty handily anywhere else than with EV points and PP points combined and comes out comfortably ahead as a player assessing all situations.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

But the way you've been commenting on then comes across as you believe reinhart is generally a superior player to rantanen? Not sure if that's what you meant but even just looking at 5v5 points/60 you/other poster found reinhart produced 8% higher than rantanen. If we assume per 60 stats are constant and will hold a players raw production than I'm curious who has a generally higher pt/60? It would have to be rantanen right? He out produces him by 20-25 points these past two years while playing nearly identical minutes.

Maybe reinhart is a little bit better than rantanen at 5v5(doubt this b/c it assumes per 60 stats will hold current production and also includes a year where rantanen had his leg messed up resulting in lower production than what youd expect based on his progression stage but I'll give him that for now), however rantanen still wins pretty handily anywhere else than with EV points and PP points combined and comes out comfortably ahead as a player assessing all situations.

No, I haven't said that Reinhart is a better player as a whole. I have only addressed which player is better at 5-on-5, in response to a post that explicitly made the definitive claim that Rantanen is the better player at 5-on-5. I also didn't say that Reinhart has scored higher 5V5 P/60; I said that he has scored at a higher rate of primary points, which excludes secondary assists. Rantanen has the better 5v5 p/60 if you include secondary assists. For full disclosure, here are the numbers:

Spoiler

Player	Goals/60	Primary Assists/60	Secondary Assists/60	Primary Points/60	Points/60
Mikko Rantanen	0.68	0.85	0.61	1.53	2.14
Sam Reinhart	0.86	0.78	0.39	1.65	2.04

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

As you can see, Reinhart scores goals at a 27% higher rate, while Rantanen scores primary assists at a 9% higher rate and secondary assists at a 56% higher rate. Reinhart scores primary points at an 8% higher rate, but Rantanen scores all points at a 5% higher rate.

Reinhart and Rantanen have played nearly the exact same 5-on-5 TOI/GP over the past two seasons (1 second apart) over the past two seasons. Whether or not you use ice time (per 60) or games played as the denominator will not change anything. Everything that I just said above will remain true if you use per game stats instead. And if you want to criticize the use of rates in general, you should realize that using rates is only being fair to Rantanen who has played like 35 fewer games than Reinhart and whose totals at 5-on-5 are well behind Reinhart's.

So, we know that over the past two seasons, Reinhart is a much better goal scorer, while Rantanen is slightly better at scoring primary assists and miles better at scoring secondary assists, and Reinhart is a bit better at scoring primary points while Rantanen is a bit better at scoring all points. We also know that Rantanen is put in a far more favorable situation for scoring, playing with linemates that are far superior to Reinhart's, on a team that is far superior offensively to Reinhart's; this alone is probably enough to explain the gap in their secondary assist rates and conclude that Reinhart is probably the better offensive player at 5-on-5. We also know that Reinhart is a stronger play driver, and a better defensive player than Rantanen.

Putting all of this information together, I think it's fair to conclude that strictly at 5-on-5, Reinhart is a superior player to Rantanen.

 

[Aladyyn]

not surprising he has better hands and vision than reinhart when you watch the two play

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

No, I haven't said that Reinhart is a better player as a whole. I have only addressed which player is better at 5-on-5, in response to a post that explicitly made the definitive claim that Rantanen is the better player at 5-on-5. I also didn't say that Reinhart has scored higher 5V5 P/60; I said that he has scored at a higher rate of primary points, which excludes secondary assists. Rantanen has the better 5v5 p/60 if you include secondary assists. For full disclosure, here are the numbers:

Spoiler

Player	Goals/60	Primary Assists/60	Secondary Assists/60	Primary Points/60	Points/60
Mikko Rantanen	0.68	0.85	0.61	1.53	2.14
Sam Reinhart	0.86	0.78	0.39	1.65	2.04

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

As you can see, Reinhart scores goals at a 27% higher rate, while Rantanen scores primary assists at a 9% higher rate and secondary assists at a 56% higher rate. Reinhart scores primary points at an 8% higher rate, but Rantanen scores all points at a 5% higher rate.

Reinhart and Rantanen have played nearly the exact same 5-on-5 TOI/GP over the past two seasons (1 second apart) over the past two seasons. Whether or not you use ice time (per 60) or games played as the denominator will not change anything. Everything that I just said above will remain true if you use per game stats instead. And if you want to criticize the use of rates in general, you should realize that using rates is only being fair to Rantanen who has played like 35 fewer games than Reinhart and whose totals at 5-on-5 are well behind Reinhart's.

So, we know that over the past two seasons, Reinhart is a much better goal scorer, while Rantanen is slightly better at scoring primary assists and miles better at scoring secondary assists, and Reinhart is a bit better at scoring primary points while Rantanen is a bit better at scoring all points. We also know that Rantanen is put in a far more favorable situation for scoring, playing with linemates that are far superior to Reinhart's, on a team that is far superior offensively to Reinhart's; this alone is probably enough to explain the gap in their secondary assist rates and conclude that Reinhart is probably the better offensive player at 5-on-5. We also know that Reinhart is a stronger play driver, and a better defensive player than Rantanen.

Putting all of this information together, I think it's fair to conclude that strictly at 5-on-5, Reinhart is a superior player to Rantanen.

How come you don’t conclude that Reinhart is the better player than Rantanen overall?

If you think he’s a better even strength player, better play driver, better defensive player, and Rantanen is aided by stronger teammates. That’s a lot of areas of superiority for Reinhart.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

How come you don’t conclude that Reinhart is the better player than Rantanen overall?

If you think he’s a better even strength player, better play driver, better defensive player, and Rantanen is aided by stronger teammates. That’s a lot of areas of superiority for Reinhart.

You said a bunch of things that are redundant. You could have just said "better 5-on-5 player" since everything else is just part of what goes into making that conclusion.

I didn't say that Reinhart is the better player overall because Rantanen is one of the best power play players in the league. That is extremely important.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

You said a bunch of things that are redundant. You could have just said "better 5-on-5 player" since everything else is just part of what goes into making that conclusion.

I didn't say that Reinhart is the better player overall because Rantanen is one of the best power play players in the league. That is extremely important.

I’m just trying to understand. You outlined similar arguments for Meier to say that he’s better than Rantanen.

How come Reinhart falls short, when Meier doesn’t?

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I’m just trying to understand. You outlined similar arguments for Meier to say that he’s better than Rantanen.

How come Reinhart falls short, when Meier doesn’t?

Because Meier is another tier above Reinhart at 5-on-5.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Because Meier is another tier above Reinhart at 5-on-5.

Their point totals are pretty much the same though. Is it because Reinhart had more ice-time?

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Their point totals are pretty much the same though. Is it because Reinhart had more ice-time?

Reinhart had 12% more ice time, but Meier has 6% more points despite playing in a considerably less favorable situation and Meier is also a better play driver.

 

[Captain Controversy]

I would have voted Mackinnon if there was no rantanen or makar. lol

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Reinhart had 12% more ice time, but Meier has 6% more points despite playing in a considerably less favorable situation and Meier is also a better play driver.

He was in a less favourable situation this season, but probably not last year, given the overall talent San Jose iced on offence and defence.

I’m just surprised that small level of point production difference makes one guy clearly better than Rantanen and the other guy not.

 

[aufheben]

Kind of cheap when the Rangers have guys 2010 and 2011 draft eligible when other teams have guys from 2015 on. It's apples and oranges

They also have the most rookies of these options.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

He was in a less favourable situation this season, but probably not last year, given the overall talent San Jose iced on offence and defence.

I’m just surprised that small level of point production difference makes one guy clearly better than Rantanen and the other guy not.

It's not small.

Meier: 1.99 primary points per 60 minutes
Reinhart: 1.64 primary points per 60 minutes
Rantanen: 1.53 primary points per 60 minutes

Meier's primary scoring rate is 30% ahead of Rantanen's while Reinhart's primary scoring rate is only 7% ahead of Rantanen's.

Among the 340 forwards who have played at least 1,000 5-on-5 minutes over this sample, Meier's primary scoring rate ranks 22nd in between Nathan MacKinnon and John Tavares. Reinhart ranks 59th in between Jeff Skinner and Sean Couturier. Rantanen ranks 87th in between Anthony Duclair and Alex Debrincat.

Meier's primary scoring rate is 1.79 standard deviations above the mean. Sam Reinhart's primary scoring rate is 0.87 standard deviations above the mean. Rantanen's is 0.59 standard deviations above the mean.

Much different.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

It's not small.

Meier: 1.99 primary points per 60 minutes
Reinhart: 1.64 primary points per 60 minutes
Rantanen: 1.53 primary points per 60 minutes

Meier's primary scoring rate is 30% ahead of Rantanen's while Reinhart's primary scoring rate is only 7% ahead of Rantanen's.

Among the 340 forwards who have played at least 1,000 5-on-5 minutes over this sample, Meier's primary scoring rate ranks 22nd in between Nathan MacKinnon and John Tavares. Reinhart ranks 59th in between Jeff Skinner and Sean Couturier. Rantanen ranks 87th in between Anthony Duclair and Alex Debrincat.

Meier's primary scoring rate is 1.79 standard deviations above the mean. Sam Reinhart's primary scoring rate is 0.87 standard deviations above the mean. Rantanen's is 0.59 standard deviations above the mean.

Much different.

Thank you for this. I understand now.

 

[CatchyTune]

Eichel ROR > Tavares and Matthews change my mind

While that would be a good debate I dont see the point considering Buffalo doesnt have O'Reilly anymore.