Where will the Canucks finish in the new division

[VanGreenGuy]

You're optimism is admirable but I don't share it. I have past my threshold for relying on Booth for anything other than a trip to the IR and JS has a long way to go before being a productive NHL player. This team has benefited from playing in the weakest division in the NHL the last few seasons but that isn't a luxury they will have this season. We have seen exactly what this team is the past two playoffs and nothing has been done to improve the glaring holes. It is my opinion that this season is going to be a struggle for us fans unless GMMG does something to improve the team in a significant way or we have a major fluke brake out from one of our rookies. Both scenarios are unlikely in my eyes.

It always bothers me to hear that the Canucks only did well because they took advantage of the weakest division in hockey. Perhaps there is better analysis than this, but judging by the numbers compiled below the NW was only last in 2010-11 season for goal differential.

Sure you could argue that the Canucks stats are rolled up into the NW totals and skew the info, but if you're going to remove the Canucks from their division then you'd also have to remove the division leader from each of their own divisions too, wouldn't you?

SOURCE: http://espn.go.com/nhl/stats/rpi/_/season/2013

EDIT: Data points are just summation for all the divisions stat values for Points, Relative Power Index, Strength of Schedule, Goals For, Goals Against, Goal Differential

2010-11	PTS	RPI	SOS	GF	GA	DIFF			PTS	RPI	SOS	DIFF
Pacific	413	2.869	2.836	1164	1105	59		1st	Pacific	Pacific	Pacific	Pacific
Central	398	2.835	2.819	1193	1152	41		2nd	Central	Central	Central	Central
Atlantic	390	2.791	2.785	1133	1093	40		3rd	Atlantic	Atlantic	Northwest	Atlantic
Northeast	373	2.761	2.778	1117	1134	-17		4th	Southeast	Northwest	Atlantic	Northeast
Southeast	384	2.767	2.772	1125	1174	-49		5th	Northwest	Southeast	Northeast	Southeast
Northwest	374	2.78	2.818	1138	1212	-74		6th	Northeast	Northeast	Southeast	Northwest
												
												
2011-12	PTS	RPI	SOS	GF	GA	DIFF			PTS	RPI	SOS	GOAL DIFF
Atlantic	501	2.883	2.824	1203	1104	99		1st	Atlantic	Atlantic	Atlantic	Atlantic
Central	481	2.848	2.818	1145	1078	67		2nd	Central	Central	Central	Central
Northeast	441	2.767	2.792	1179	1162	17		3rd	Pacific	Pacific	Pacific	Northeast
Pacific	457	2.804	2.809	1053	1046	7		4th	Northwest	Northwest	Northwest	Pacific
Northwest	444	2.773	2.796	1048	1109	-61		5th	Northeast	Northeast	Southeast	Northwest
Southeast	436	2.759	2.792	1098	1227	-129		6th	Southeast	Southeast	Northeast	Southeast
												
												
2012-13	PTS	RPI	SOS	GF	GA	DIFF			PTS	RPI	SOS	DIFF
Northeast	286	2.823	2.771	666	615	51		1st	Central	Central	Central	Northeast
Central	289	2.874	2.828	639	590	49		2nd	Northeast	Pacific	Pacific	Central
Atlantic	280	2.804	2.767	679	640	39		3rd	Pacific	Northeast	Northwest	Atlantic
Pacific	281	2.852	2.825	652	625	27		4th	Atlantic	Atlantic	Northeast	Pacific
Northwest	240	2.715	2.785	618	694	-76		5th	Northwest	Northwest	Atlantic	Northwest
Southeast	226	2.624	2.712	665	755	-90		6th	Southeast	Southeast	Southeast	Southeast

 

[Reign Nateo]

1. Los Angeles
2. San Jose
3. Anaheim
4. Vancouver
5. Phoenix
6. Edmonton
7. Calgary

 

[Johnny LaRue]

The Canucks finish top 4 with a little luck. I just think that the team has at best not become worse this year and I see no reason to believe it will fare better than last season.

 

[Nash]

New division issues are a fallacy. We barely play our new division any more than previous years. We used to play every team in the Western conference 4 times, with 2 more vs divisional teams. Now it's either 5 or 4 vs the division and 3 vs the rest of the West. So 1 more game than before vs LAK, PHX and ANA (SJS is only 4 this rotation), 1 less game than before vs EDM & CAL. The biggest drop in games is 3 each vs COL & MIN. The biggest factor in determining our standings next season is inter-conference play. We go from 18 to 32 games. The Canucks are 35-16-11 in the past 3 seasons of inter-conference play.

So basically, everyone shut up about the new tough division. It's not a significant factor in the regular season standings.

 

[Jyrki]

New division issues are a fallacy. We barely play our new division any more than previous years. We used to play every team in the Western conference 4 times, with 2 more vs divisional teams. Now it's either 5 or 4 vs the division and 3 vs the rest of the West. So 1 more game than before vs LAK, PHX and ANA (SJS is only 4 this rotation), 1 less game than before vs EDM & CAL. The biggest drop in games is 3 each vs COL & MIN. The biggest factor in determining our standings next season is inter-conference play. We go from 18 to 32 games. The Canucks are 35-16-11 in the past 3 seasons of inter-conference play.

So basically, everyone shut up about the new tough division. It's not a significant factor in the regular season standings.

Not having the Avs to feast on should drop us a few points.

 

[Archangel]

Not having the Avs to feast on should drop us a few points.

and the two wild cards are the oiler and phoenix. If those two teams can pull it together it will be a very tight division

 

[ShyCheetah]

It comes down to our depth. As long as our second line isn't injured for the whole year then I think we hang with LA and SJ. If we can cobble together an effective third line then I think we take the top spot. If not I think we're third. This seems like our transition year to let the young guys cut their teeth on that third line. I'm optimistic between Schroeder/Gaunce/Jensen along side Hansen and Higgins in the bottom 6 that the young guys are primed to shine and we only need one of those guys to take the next step to fix our depth. We take top spot.

Shy

 

[Nash]

Not having the Avs to feast on should drop us a few points.

Did you even read my post? 3 less games vs the weak COL team are replaced by games vs BUF, FLA, & TOR...all equally defensively suspect...oh no

 

[Nash]

It comes down to our depth. As long as our second line isn't injured for the whole year then I think we hang with LA and SJ. If we can cobble together an effective third line then I think we take the top spot. If not I think we're third. This seems like our transition year to let the young guys cut their teeth on that third line. I'm optimistic between Schroeder/Gaunce/Jensen along side Hansen and Higgins in the bottom 6 that the young guys are primed to shine and we only need one of those guys to take the next step to fix our depth. We take top spot.

Shy

We basically won the division last year based on one line. As long as we get at least a second line going again (stay healthy Kesler), we should easily be top 3. If we do find a steady third line this season, 1st place is very realistic. D and goaltending aren't an issue.

 

[Archangel]

I did some prep work for fall fantasy leagues and the more I look at the oilers line up, the more I predict they will be drafting in the top 5 next draft

 

[ddawg1950]

I did some prep work for fall fantasy leagues and the more I look at the oilers line up, the more I predict they will be drafting in the top 5 next draft

There are a number of question marks right throughout the organization. From new management (same ole KLowe, though), new coaching, RNH returning from shoulder surgery, Ference as their top D man, and questionable goaltending.

 

[dave babych returns]

We basically won the division last year based on one line. As long as we get at least a second line going again (stay healthy Kesler), we should easily be top 3. If we do find a steady third line this season, 1st place is very realistic. D and goaltending aren't an issue.

Good post. You'd have a hard time putting it much more succinctly.

 

[Nash]

Good post. You'd have a hard time putting it much more succinctly.

Thanks. I strongly believe Torts is going to give us a big bump this year too. It may take 20+ games for a new team to buy in to whatever system he puts in place though, so I hope Camucks fans are patient. Given AV's ill prepared slow starts to each season, conveniently blamed on Luongo, we shouldn't even notice.

Nice handle...I talked to Babych at the Raven in Deep Cove a day or two after his trade...nice guy.

 

[Hardyvan123]

There are a number of question marks right throughout the organization. From new management (same ole KLowe, though), new coaching, RNH returning from shoulder surgery, Ference as their top D man, and questionable goaltending.

Yes there are question marks but their core is still climbing the ladder and they improved their depth at defense and on the 3rd line.

Their questionable goaltending was at a .921 save% clip with a worse defense last year, this year with Ference it will be better.

Maybe it happens in 15 and not next year but the Oilers will make that big jump sometime in the next 2 years and there were signs of it last year already.

 

[Hardyvan123]

We basically won the division last year based on one line. As long as we get at least a second line going again (stay healthy Kesler), we should easily be top 3. If we do find a steady third line this season, 1st place is very realistic. D and goaltending aren't an issue.

Well the top line scored at a rate of 28% of the canucks goals alst year, is that really out of line with previous seasons?

Also they dropped from 4th to 12th in GA, if they rebound back to 4th sure the back end isn't a problem but they have to actually do that.

Like I said the bottom 6 will be better, the question is how the core rebounds or if they do.

 

[ddawg1950]

Yes there are question marks but their core is still climbing the ladder and they improved their depth at defense and on the 3rd line.

Their questionable goaltending was at a .921 save% clip with a worse defense last year, this year with Ference it will be better.

Maybe it happens in 15 and not next year but the Oilers will make that big jump sometime in the next 2 years and there were signs of it last year already.

The question marks include their core as well.

Hall is a very good player and may well continue to climb "the ladder." But he needs to keep his head up because he will become a target of every tough guy out there. Maybe Eager can protect him.

But RNH has so far shown little outside of being very slight amd somewhat injury prone. Obvious skills, but we'll see how he recovers from shoulder surgery...but he should have been given more time to devlop that scrawny body before playing against men.

As for goaltending, DD looked great at times but continually let in soft, back breaking goals. Search the Oiler board for continual confirmation.

Justin Schultz is a talented kid who ripped it up in the AHL, and did very well early on, until opposition vetrans started to regularly expose his defensive liabilities. Understandable really as offensive defensemen can take a while to develop that part of their game.

As for Ference, well count me as one of the non believers. He did fine in Boston playing behind the horses that really made that team go, but I just don't see him in any lind of leadership roll with the Oilers.

But I have seen your posts on the Oil before and realize you are one of their cheerleaders.

Maybe their new (as in new to the NHL as a head) coach will be able to provide the system and structure they need.

So we'll just have to wait to see if this is the year their "young guns" will break out. Much like the Hockey News predicted when they had Andrew Cogliano, Sam Gagner and Kyle Brodziak on their "Young Guns Break Out" cover.

That was what? Six, seven years ago?

 

[y2kcanucks]

Interesting to look back on a thread like this and see what everyone predicted. Admittedly even I thought the Canucks would sneak into the playoffs (8th seed), though was never optimistic about this team going into this season. Hardly anyone predicted the Canucks to finish 5th or lower this season.

 

[Nash]

Interesting to look back on a thread like this and see what everyone predicted. Admittedly even I thought the Canucks would sneak into the playoffs (8th seed), though was never optimistic about this team going into this season. Hardly anyone predicted the Canucks to finish 5th or lower this season.

I was optimistic that if the Canucks could get a second line going that they could finish high. Who knew the first line would disappear? Also, I really bought into Torts being adaptive, since he had coached differently in Tampa Bay, but he clearly isn't. His NYR style does not suit out players at all. He played the first line 26+ minutes a night for a long time and drove them into the ground.

There isn't much to be happy about as a fan this year, but I will list a few. Tanev gaining even a little offense in his game is great. Jensen has been a great surprise. He did not look good at camp. Our draft picks have had solid seasons in junior. Getting a top 10 pick two straight year will mean a lot for our future.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I was optimistic that if the Canucks could get a second line going that they could finish high. Who knew the first line would disappear? Also, I really bought into Torts being adaptive, since he had coached differently in Tampa Bay, but he clearly isn't. His NYR style does not suit out players at all. He played the first line 26+ minutes a night for a long time and drove them into the ground.

There isn't much to be happy about as a fan this year, but I will list a few. Tanev gaining even a little offense in his game is great. Jensen has been a great surprise. He did not look good at camp. Our draft picks have had solid seasons in junior. Getting a top 10 pick two straight year will mean a lot for our future.

It was hard to predict how swift the decline would be. For me the things to be most happy about are the play of Kassian, Tanev and Jensen. And I'm really happy that we are going to finish so low. Given a choice between sneaking into the playoffs and getting bounced in the first round or getting a top 10 pick, I'll take the latter. If we can get at least one more first round pick in a trade then I'll be really happy.

 

[Fat Tony]

I was pessimistic heading into this season but it turned out to be something else. I didn't vote but I wouldn't have picked 5th or lower.

 

[y2kcanucks]

I was optimistic that if the Canucks could get a second line going that they could finish high. Who knew the first line would disappear? Also, I really bought into Torts being adaptive, since he had coached differently in Tampa Bay, but he clearly isn't. His NYR style does not suit out players at all. He played the first line 26+ minutes a night for a long time and drove them into the ground.

There isn't much to be happy about as a fan this year, but I will list a few. Tanev gaining even a little offense in his game is great. Jensen has been a great surprise. He did not look good at camp. Our draft picks have had solid seasons in junior. Getting a top 10 pick two straight year will mean a lot for our future.

Tanev has arguably flourished in Tortorella's system. As I've said before he reminds me of Dan Girardi with how he's developed this year. Jensen was very disappointing this year in the AHL, but has turned it around since being put on his off-wing again. Really excited about him going into next season. And yes, that first round pick this year should bring back a solid young prospect. Too bad this wasn't next year though where it could have brought in a potentially elite prospect.

 

[Pure West]

I see thinking 4th or 5th seemed pretty accurate. I was pessimistic heading into the season, and thought missing the playoffs was a real possibility given that the previous season they were really only in the playoffs due to elite goaltending and an easy division...both of which disappeared. However, I thought they actually played pretty well in the first half of the season and maybe were just missing a little finish or a couple shootout wins that would have had them in the division's top 3. A lot of the question marks heading into the season seemed to work out in the first half. I definitely didn't anticipate they'd be this bad though, and a lot of that is health and the snowballing that happened before the Olympic break.

 

[dave babych returns]

Interesting to look back on a thread like this and see what everyone predicted. Admittedly even I thought the Canucks would sneak into the playoffs (8th seed), though was never optimistic about this team going into this season. Hardly anyone predicted the Canucks to finish 5th or lower this season.

Not a great year to play this game IMO, but hats off to anyone who predicted that virtually everything would go wrong for this team.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Not a great year to play this game IMO, but hats off to anyone who predicted that virtually everything would go wrong for this team.

#Vindication

 

[Nucker101]

#Vindication

To be fair, if we would've been told that Luongo would get traded mid-season and the team would be destroyed with injuries then most of us probably would have been in the right ball park.


But anyone who had them winning the division and/or still in the top contending team tier in the league had some nice rose-coloured glasses on.