Where does Scott Niedermayer rank?

[Big Phil]

It doesn't really give us anything meaningful. Drawing more heavily from the talent pools in the Czech Republic and Sweden is just as significant as drawing more heavily from those in Alberta and British Columbia. Nation of birth seems completely arbitrary when trying to normalize for era.

Pretty much. A great player is a great player regardless. The only time it has a little bit of relevance is that maybe there was a Russian or two or three that could have and would have been a star in the NHL in the 1970s that wasn't allowed to play. Same for the 1980s. But Swedes? Finns? Americans? They weren't good enough for a long time to crack the NHL save Salming. In the 1980s is when Americans and Finns were finally good enough.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

It doesn't really give us anything meaningful. Drawing more heavily from the talent pools in the Czech Republic and Sweden is just as significant as drawing more heavily from those in Alberta and British Columbia. Nation of birth seems completely arbitrary when trying to normalize for era.

The league is now approximately half Canadian. It used to be all Canadian.

Do you think the talent pool from "Alberta and British" Columbia is approximately half as strong as it was before the Europeans came over? If so, why do you think the Canadian talent pool is so much weaker than it used to be?

I do agree with tarheel that if Niedermayer wins the 2006 Norris in a Canadian-only league, it would have been considered over very weak competition. Weaker than the late 60s? I'm not sure.

 

[Paul4587]

Except their stat lines in 07 are both extremely similar, it just happened to be JS in the nets, he didn't separate his performance from Ilya's enough to be seriously considered for the Conn Smythe IMO.

You're clearly boxscore scouting if you think that. Anybody who watched the Ducks every game will say the exact opposite of your post regarding Bryz and Giguere. Giguere didn't have to do much in the finals but he was the biggest reason the Ducks got past Detroit who were the only team that provided a challenge to Anaheim that year.

As for the Conn Smythe, Giguere was certainly in the running. There was nobody that really separated themselves from the pack though and it really could have gone to anyone of Giguere, Pronger, Niedermayer or Pahlsson that year. I think if Pronger didn't get suspended twice then he would have won it.

 

[Hardyvan123]

It doesn't really give us anything meaningful. Drawing more heavily from the talent pools in the Czech Republic and Sweden is just as significant as drawing more heavily from those in Alberta and British Columbia. Nation of birth seems completely arbitrary when trying to normalize for era.

My original Canadian Norris comp is to shed light on how modern day guys compete against a larger pool than the 06 guys ever did.

Of course Orr or other great being better than the weak field in some years past are overlooked, not saying that Nieds is Orr but it's another bring out argument for certain players type of thing.

I don't think there is any formula for normalizing between say 56 and 07 for Dmen but we should look at how the league were different and the strengths and weaknesses of any player in either era to make a more fair comp.

There is always the "the best are always the best" arguments as well but shouldn't we also account for greater chance of variance in a 30 team league than say in a 6 team league? (In terms of more competition for top 5,10 scoring ect...)

On a final note each season is indeed different but we also have to look at the style of play and the forwards in the league for Dman comps not just the other Dmen IMO.

Harvey for instance wasn't a dominant offensive Dman on the surface but we ahve seen clips of his rushing ability and maybe he is more a product of his era rather than "not being able to dominate offensively."

When I have more time I will do more research for the entire NHL history on scoring levels for Dmen in the NHL and how they relate to overall scoring leaders as well.

Frankly I was surprised to see how well Lidstrom did in context as I viewed him more as a consistent steady D-first type of guy but his offense was more impressive than I thought it would be.

 

[Hardyvan123]

Pretty much. A great player is a great player regardless. The only time it has a little bit of relevance is that maybe there was a Russian or two or three that could have and would have been a star in the NHL in the 1970s that wasn't allowed to play. Same for the 1980s. But Swedes? Finns? Americans? They weren't good enough for a long time to crack the NHL save Salming. In the 1980s is when Americans and Finns were finally good enough.

Phil that's not the point we know that Canadians were the best players in the world basically pre 70 and there would have been little to no competition for the Norris.

Since Canada is still the major talent producer for the NHL and arguably the top nation, or always in the mix, more recent players aren't just competing in the same pool they once were.

My point of the Canadian comp would have less value if you were to think or argue that the Canadian talent level is worse now than before but that would be an extremely hard argument to make iMO.

 

[Hardyvan123]

Here are the "Canadian Norris" winners of the past 20 years.

2011 - Shea Weber
2010 - Duncan Keith
2009 - Mike Green
2008 - Dion Phaneuf
2007 - Scott Niedermayer
2006 - Scott Niedermayer
2005 - lockout
2004 - Scott Niedermayer
2003 - Al MacInnis
2002 - Rob Blake
2001 - Ray Bourque
2000 - Chris Pronger
1999 - Al MacInnis
1998 - Rob Blake
1997 - Scott Stevens
1996 - Ray Bourque
1995 - Paul Coffey
1994 - Ray Bourque
1993 - Ray Bourque
1992 - Ray Bourque
1991 - Ray Bourque

Bolded the CN winners who didn't win the real-life Norris. I'll leave it up to the group to judge the efficacy of these results.


This method has Niedermayer as the best Canadian defenseman since Ray Bourque (who never looked better than he does here). Also, those post-lockout winners...

My point wasn't absolute but rather to do a more fair comp to previous Canadian only 06 guys.

It's not like all the 06 winners (or guys that we would project as such before the Norris were stud seasons either like Harry Howell before Orr's run.

One thing we don't know though is how voters would actually treat these guys in "A Canadian only league, but it gives us a rough idea at least."

Also I'm not sure that Nieds would get the best Canadian Dman since Ray Bourque if we looked at the top 5 or 10 results for Dmen in every year and some guys like Mac had injuries and lets face it voters sometimes do funny things as well (they have always done so IMO from time to time).

When I have time I might do a more detailed analysis post 80ish when other Dmen, and players overall, started showing up in larger numbers.

 

[danincanada]

You can say players are bigger and faster than ever but the amount of children playing is the lowest in percentage ever.In the 70's Millions of kids could play in the Soviet Union because it was free.In Canada we had over 600 thousand kids playing.The costs are too high and I believe in capitalism but something must be done for single parents who can't afford the costs.

Where did you come up with this number? I've searched for this kind of information before and always came up empty handed.

btw, I don't agree with your post. "Millions of kids" didn't play hockey in the Soviet Union in the 70's and I think overall the number of kids playing hockey in the world has gone up dramatically. The US recently eclipsed 500,000 registered players for the first time, Canada is close to 600,000 and Europe accounts for approximately another 500,000. Any way you look at it, it dwarfs the number of people playing hockey in the 60's and 70's. The talent pool has grown a lot, no question.

I live in the Toronto area and hockey is alive and well here. The GTA (Greater Toronto Area) has grown immensley since the 60's and 70's and kids of all backgrounds play the game. There is no argument the other way IMO.

 

[Big Phil]

Phil that's not the point we know that Canadians were the best players in the world basically pre 70 and there would have been little to no competition for the Norris.

Since Canada is still the major talent producer for the NHL and arguably the top nation, or always in the mix, more recent players aren't just competing in the same pool they once were.

My point of the Canadian comp would have less value if you were to think or argue that the Canadian talent level is worse now than before but that would be an extremely hard argument to make iMO.

I'm not so sure the Canadian talent level is worse by any means, there isn't the Gretzky, Orr or Lemieux out there, but then again there hardly is. It is possible that it has dropped a bit though, not every kid in the country is playing hockey like before, even though many are of course. But they are merely being replaced by star Europeans and the odd American. In the end, you're still competing against a great player regardless of their birthplace right? I just don't really get the whole thing about how the European countries have progressed. We have seen countries progress more than ever before and to be honest the last 10 years was probably the easiest time to win the Norris since the mid to late 1960s. So to me it is far more important to judge the actual contemporaries rather than whether they are Canadian or not

 

[thom]

Your wrong do your homework the number of kids playing hockey is down by over 25percent over the past decades.In Russia there were over 5.5 million kids playing hockey in 1978.In RUSSIA and eastern europe there is barely 250000 kids.In Czech and Slovakia every kid who went to school could play hockey at no costs.Since 1990 hockey is dying.The number of kids playing hockey outside of the US has dropped.In Quebec in 1980 had the highest percentage of kids playing hockey now it has one of the lowest and football has surpassed hockey because there is little costs compared to hockey.

 

[tarheelhockey]

btw, I don't agree with your post. "Millions of kids" didn't play hockey in the Soviet Union in the 70's and I think overall the number of kids playing hockey in the world has gone up dramatically. The US recently eclipsed 500,000 registered players for the first time, Canada is close to 600,000 and Europe accounts for approximately another 500,000. Any way you look at it, it dwarfs the number of people playing hockey in the 60's and 70's. The talent pool has grown a lot, no question.

Thom touched on this in the previous post, but detailed analysis in previous threads leads me to believe that the number of kids playing in Europe as a whole (including the former Soviets) has been stagnant at best in recent years. Some countries have made great strides, while others have fallen off quite dramatically -- particularly Russia and Slovakia.

 

[FakeKidPoker*]

So...Canadian Norris now?

 

[danincanada]

Your wrong do your homework the number of kids playing hockey is down by over 25percent over the past decades.In Russia there were over 5.5 million kids playing hockey in 1978.In RUSSIA and eastern europe there is barely 250000 kids.In Czech and Slovakia every kid who went to school could play hockey at no costs.Since 1990 hockey is dying.The number of kids playing hockey outside of the US has dropped.In Quebec in 1980 had the highest percentage of kids playing hockey now it has one of the lowest and football has surpassed hockey because there is little costs compared to hockey.

If you've "done your homework" then by all means, please share it with some links and resources for these claims. 5.5 million is a gigantic number so I'd like to see proof of this.

So what you're saying is that all of these children were supplied skates, sticks and other equipment. It must have been like a little hockey army then akin to a military draft. We never had those types of resources in Canada and this is a hockey crazed nation.

 

[Theokritos]

the number of kids playing hockey is down by over 25percent over the past decades.In Russia there were over 5.5 million kids playing hockey in 1978....In Quebec in 1980 had the highest percentage of kids playing hockey now it has one of the lowest and football has surpassed hockey because there is little costs compared to hockey.

Sources please?

 

[YippieKaey]

Part of the problem for Nieds is that during the earlier part of his career he had to deal with the clutch and grab environment in the NHL which he wasn't suited for as much as a guy like Pronger.

This really puts him at a disadvantage and is a good reason why he shouldn't even be in the top 30. After all clutching and grabbing is a part of defensive play and something that shouldn't hinder a D-man. Pretty good stats with the Ducks and a flashy offensive D-man but not at all top 30 imho

 

[Stephen]

However excellent Niedermayer was at the end of his career, his all time ranking must be balanced by the relatively slow start to his career. It literally took him two third of his career to fully blossom into the individually great player he evolved into. For years he was just a frustratingly unproductive defenseman with world class skills and skating who undressed Paul Coffey in the Stanley Cup finals, shackled on a defensive team.

 

[Hardyvan123]

However excellent Niedermayer was at the end of his career, his all time ranking must be balanced by the relatively slow start to his career. It literally took him two third of his career to fully blossom into the individually great player he evolved into. For years he was just a frustratingly unproductive defenseman with world class skills and skating who undressed Paul Coffey in the Stanley Cup finals, shackled on a defensive team.

I'm sorry but at age 25 in 99 he is playing 24:40 TOI, slightly more than a 34 year old Scott Stevens and over 4 minutes more than the next Dman on a pretty decent team.

At age 23 he is playing for Canada at the world Cup.

Some guys who don't like Nieds like to call him JayBo before Jaybo but posts like this sure don't reflect on how good he actually was, maybe part of the problem is the love for Scott Stevens, who never won a Norris or that he never really attained the offensive production that was expected I'm not sure.

The guy has an extremely impressive resume plain and simple.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

Oddest and biggest misconception in this thread: Pronger was Anaheim's #1 defenseman. Absolutely false in every sense of the word. And not only was Niedermayer Anaheim's #1 defenseman, he was their shut down defenseman as well.

 

[MS]

However excellent Niedermayer was at the end of his career, his all time ranking must be balanced by the relatively slow start to his career. It literally took him two third of his career to fully blossom into the individually great player he evolved into. For years he was just a frustratingly unproductive defenseman with world class skills and skating who undressed Paul Coffey in the Stanley Cup finals, shackled on a defensive team.

Pretty much.

Until age 30 he was considered something of an under-achiever who never lived up to his early potential, and at that point had had only a very marginally better career than Darryl Sydor. In early 2003, the notion that Niedermayer was headed to the HHOF would have been absolutely laughed at.

Then he had a massive 2003 playoffs and backed it up with three elite seasons from 2003-2007. Then retired, and was nowhere near as good when he came back.

People act like this player was elite from 12-15 years when he was an elite player for only 3. There simply no way you can rank him much higher than 30-ish all time when you look at all the players who maintained an elite level of play for much longer.

 

[Big Phil]

I'm sorry but at age 25 in 99 he is playing 24:40 TOI, slightly more than a 34 year old Scott Stevens and over 4 minutes more than the next Dman on a pretty decent team.

At age 23 he is playing for Canada at the world Cup.

Some guys who don't like Nieds like to call him JayBo before Jaybo but posts like this sure don't reflect on how good he actually was, maybe part of the problem is the love for Scott Stevens, who never won a Norris or that he never really attained the offensive production that was expected I'm not sure.

The guy has an extremely impressive resume plain and simple.

He did have a couple of ebb and flows in his career pre-2003. He was on the World Cup team. But is he even on there if Bourque and MacInnis play? He made that one classic rush in the 1995 final and he was a 2nd team all-star in 1998. But literally, that's about it. He was always thought to be a great skater that could have been so much better. It was thought that he was being held back, or that he held himself back in those days. Personally I think he could have been much higher up on the all-time list if he had a greater career outside of 2003-'07. But he didn't.

 

[MadLuke]

I think that team canada 2006 would have been much better with him playing.

In that window he had a peak of a worthy HHOF candidate and high ranked player IMO, with the championnish to back it.

 

[Stephen]

I'm sorry but at age 25 in 99 he is playing 24:40 TOI, slightly more than a 34 year old Scott Stevens and over 4 minutes more than the next Dman on a pretty decent team.

At age 23 he is playing for Canada at the world Cup.

Some guys who don't like Nieds like to call him JayBo before Jaybo but posts like this sure don't reflect on how good he actually was, maybe part of the problem is the love for Scott Stevens, who never won a Norris or that he never really attained the offensive production that was expected I'm not sure.

The guy has an extremely impressive resume plain and simple.

Niedermayer was always a great defenseman in this league and he was always a winner and a staple on Team Canada, but he didn't fully blossom into a dominant offensive force or emerge as a clear cup number one franchise defenseman the way he did after that monster year in 2004 or whenever it was. He wasn't a Jaybo, but probably a Kaberle + for most of his career in terms of HHOF likelihood before then.

 

[Hardyvan123]

Niedermayer was always a great defenseman in this league and he was always a winner and a staple on Team Canada, but he didn't fully blossom into a dominant offensive force or emerge as a clear cup number one franchise defenseman the way he did after that monster year in 2004 or whenever it was. He wasn't a Jaybo, but probably a Kaberle + for most of his career in terms of HHOF likelihood before then.

Then you must think extremely highly of Kaberle I guess.

Maybe it's playing in Scott Stevens shadow and yes he did emerge as the top Canadian Dman for a length at the end of his career but man he was alot better than Sydor's career path before that like was noted in an earlier post by MS.

A quick look at their careers show that Nieds was definitely more successful pre 03

Maybe someone has the missing TIOI estimates for Nieds but for 99 on we have his TOI and man it's extremely impressive for a pretty decent organization as well.