Basically there is a reason Niedermayer had that gap in his career where he was 31 before he won a Norris. Yes, he wouldn't win it anyway with Lidstrom and Pronger in the way. But it isn't as if the guy was close either. He had a 2nd team all-star in 1998. Then nothing until 2004. Followed up with two first team all-stars after that. Then the most controversial Conn Smythe trophy ever and then that ill-advised "retirment" following the 2007 season. He was never the same after he came back. Then he's done for good in 2010.
Look, the guy was a winner no doubt about it but he teased fans for so long and since it pre-dated the lockout we tend to forget it. The end to end rush in the 1995 final was brilliant. As was the end to end rush against Sweden in the 1996 World Cup. But he left you thirsting for more all the time. You always asked yourself "why can't he do that more?"
Other than 1998 when he had 57 points, he was basically at best a 40 point defenseman - mostly in the 30s - and he didn't round out his defensive game early on either. Then he explodes in the 2003 playoffs, wins the Norris in 2004, wins the World Cup in 2004, and had two more elite seasons after that and another Cup. We just all seemed to forget about his foibles before that. Then after 2007 he didn't do anything noteworthy. We are basically talking about a defenseman who has 4-5 elite seasons at the most. Yes, he frustrated you to no end. He had 0 goals and 6 assists during the Devils march to the Cup final. Niedermayer could do that to you all the time. There was always the underlying feeling that he didn't use his speed or ever reach his potential. I still don't think he did.
Think of it this way. Look at the disapointment Jay Bouwmeester has been. Excellent skater, 6'4", good size, long stride. But hey, everyone knows that but him. He's been awful in his career compared to what he "could" have done. In a way, that was Niedermayer pre-2003. If you are the best skater on the ice at all times you should showcase it, you know, like Coffey or Orr did. So yeah, he's in the HHOF someday because he did a lot of good things, won a lot, etc. and it overshadows the "what if" discussion about him.
But does anyone remember when Niedermayer announced his "retirement" in 2007 and Pierre McGuire conceded he was a top 10 d-man? I cringed. I'd have to look back, but I am pretty sure Robinson was rated behind him on that list. He had Niedermayer at #7 and he was trying to make a case for it! Bottom line, he is at best a top 25 d-man and that might be pushing it. He is clearly behind the usual top 10 and without a doubt behind the normal names that pop up 20-25 like Horton, MacInnis, Stevens, Pronger, Howe, etc.