Where do you think Askarov will land?

[chaosrevolver]

I would be very interested to see the numbers of goalies drafted in the 1st and 2nd that have busted over the same age spread.

I'm actually curious if the bust ratio is lower than skaters for goalies in the top 50, simply for the fact that they rarely go early, and I would imagine that teams have scouted the goalie to death before they are willing to give up a high pick on them.

Goalies selected in Top 50 from 2000-2016:

Rick DiPietro (1st)
Brent Krahn (9th)
Ilya Bryzgalov (44th)
Mathieu Chouinard (45th)
---
Pascal Leclaire (8th)
Dan Blackburn (10th)
Jason Bacashihua (26th)
Adam Munro (29th)
---
Kari Lehtonen (2nd)
Cam Ward (25th)
Hannu Toivonen (29th)
Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers (31st)
Tobias Stephan (34th)
Josh Harding (38th)
David LeNeveu (46th)
---
Marc-Andre Fleury (1st)
---
Al Montoya (6th)
Devan Dubnyk (14th)
Marek Schwarz (17th)
Cory Schneider (26th)
David Shantz (37th)
Justin Peters (38th)
---
Carey Price (5th)
Tuukka Rask (21st)
Tyler Plante (32nd)
Jeff Frazee (38th)
Ondrej Pavelec (41st)
---
Jonathan Bernier (11th)
Riku Helenius (15th)
Semyon Varlamov (23rd)
Leland Irving (26th)
Michal Neuvirth (34th)
Jhonas Enroth (46th)
---
Joel Gistedt (36th)
Antoine Lafleur (48th)
Trevor Cann (49th)
---
Chet Pickard (18th)
Tom McCollum (30th)
Jacob Markstrom (31st)
Jake Allen (34th)
---
Mikko Koskinen (31st)
Robin Lehner (46th)
---
Jack Campbell (11th)
Mark Visentin (27th)
Calvin Pickard (49th)
---
Magnus Hellberg (38th)
John Gibson (39th)
Christopher Gibson (49th)
---
Andrei Vasilevskiy (19th)
Malcolm Subban (24th)
Oscar Dansk (31st)
Anthony Stolarz (45th)
---
Zachary Fucale (36th)
Tristan Jarry (44th)
---
Mason McDonald (34th)
Thatcher Demko (36th)
Alex Nedeljkovic (37th)
Vitek Vanecek (39th)
---
Ilya Samsonov (22nd)
Mackenzie Blackwood (42nd)
---
Carter Hart (48th)


NHL Goalies taken in 2nd round after Pick 50:
Peter Budaj
Corey Crawford
Jimmy Howard

 

[BlackEye from Xhekaj]

Goalies selected in Top 50 from 2000-2016:

Rick DiPietro (1st)
Brent Krahn (9th)
Ilya Bryzgalov (44th)
Mathieu Chouinard (45th)
---
Pascal Leclaire (8th)
Dan Blackburn (10th)
Jason Bacashihua (26th)
Adam Munro (29th)
---
Kari Lehtonen (2nd)
Cam Ward (25th)
Hannu Toivonen (29th)
Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers (31st)
Tobias Stephan (34th)
Josh Harding (38th)
David LeNeveu (46th)
---
Marc-Andre Fleury (1st)
---
Al Montoya (6th)
Devan Dubnyk (14th)
Marek Schwarz (17th)
Cory Schneider (26th)
David Shantz (37th)
Justin Peters (38th)
---
Carey Price (5th)
Tuukka Rask (21st)
Tyler Plante (32nd)
Jeff Frazee (38th)
Ondrej Pavelec (41st)
---
Jonathan Bernier (11th)
Riku Helenius (15th)
Semyon Varlamov (23rd)
Leland Irving (26th)
Michal Neuvirth (34th)
Jhonas Enroth (46th)
---
Joel Gistedt (36th)
Antoine Lafleur (48th)
Trevor Cann (49th)
---
Chet Pickard (18th)
Tom McCollum (30th)
Jacob Markstrom (31st)
Jake Allen (34th)
---
Mikko Koskinen (31st)
Robin Lehner (46th)
---
Jack Campbell (11th)
Mark Visentin (27th)
Calvin Pickard (49th)
---
Magnus Hellberg (38th)
John Gibson (39th)
Christopher Gibson (49th)
---
Andrei Vasilevskiy (19th)
Malcolm Subban (24th)
Oscar Dansk (31st)
Anthony Stolarz (45th)
---
Zachary Fucale (36th)
Tristan Jarry (44th)
---
Mason McDonald (34th)
Thatcher Demko (36th)
Alex Nedeljkovic (37th)
Vitek Vanecek (39th)
---
Ilya Samsonov (22nd)
Mackenzie Blackwood (42nd)
---
Carter Hart (48th)


NHL Goalies taken in 2nd round after Pick 50:
Peter Budaj
Corey Crawford
Jimmy Howard

I won't count Nedeljkovic since he's still in development, but it's basically 29-30 of 60-61 that spent some consistent time in an NHL net as a starter or backup.

DiPietro - 319 (concussion/hips)
Krahn - 1 (knee)
LeClaire - 173 (hip)
Blackburn - 63 (shoulder)
Lehtonen - 649
Fleury - 850
Montoya - 168
Price - 690

Were taken top 10 - with GP.. and besides Lehtonen, Price, Fleury who have had or are having solid careers, Al Montoya never really lived up to expectations and the rest had rough injuries that hampered their careers/development.

Taking a goalie early is a risk in the sense that there are a ton of things that can go wrong/injury risk seems greater. However, Vasilevskiy was ranked in the top 10 for quite a while in 2012, and looking back, Edmonton would have looked like geniuses taking him at #1OV. If the kid is talented enough, and a team needs goaltending depth, you take him. In this case, Carolina is such a good fit at 13. If he falls to 18ish, the Devils would be great as well.

 

[57special]

Its not like a mid teens pick isn't risky no matter what the position.

 

[thestonedkoala]

The Devils with a better young goalie than Kahkonen might select Askarov. Kahkonen and prospects worse than Kahkonen are not going to stop Minnesota from selecting Askarov.

First off, I love how any prospect drafted by Minnesota gets knocked down a peg or two simply because it's Minnesota. If Kahkonen had ended up in New York, or in Montreal, or anywhere, he'd be considered a top flight goaltending prospect.

Secondly, if I am guessing, you're talking about Blackwood right? Blackwood struggled a lot more in the AHL than Kahkonen. He has a few more games than Kahkonen, but Kahkonen was never demoted to the ECHL either. But Blackwood posted 88 GP, 2.95 GAA and a .897 SV% with 6 SO.

Kahkonen has played 73 games with a .916 SV% and a 2.45 GAA and 13 shutouts. Hell, in his first year Kahkonen matched Blackwood's SO total.

Kahkonen is extremely underrated as far as goaltenders go.

Thirdly, the Devils have questionable goaltending depth outside of Blackwood. Cole Brady hasn't even made it to the NCAA and uh is playing at Arizona State University, Gilles Senn is as old as Blackwood, but has played 1/4th of the time, McIntyre is 27 and Cormier is buried. That is pretty shaky depth. In the majors, they have Schneider and now Blackwood. They have 6 goaltenders, and only Blackwood has shown any prospects. Brady is a long term prospect, Senn is...just there. McIntyre is there. And Cormier isn't much of a prospect.

Minnesota doesn't have questionable depth. They have Jones (who may end up in the AHL or back in the OHL), Lindberg (who is currently splitting duties but has put up good numbers) that haven't even made it into the AHL. I wouldn't put it outside Minnesota to draft a goaltender again this year just to keep up with depth, but with Jones and Lindberg, I don't see them taking yet another long term goaltender, when they have two long term goaltenders that may end up being pretty good.

Finally, Minnesota doesn't have three first round picks. New Jersey could take Askarov and then two other good prospects in the mid-to-late first round. Minnesota can't do that.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Now I'm being told that I'm underrating Kahkonen. He's apparently better than Blackwood. And I've been told many times that I'm biased against the Devils, so it'd be such a surprise that I think Blackwood is better than Kahkonen. I'm also biased against Kahkonen because he plays for Minnesota and not a different team.

It's sometimes hard to figure out these conspiracy theories.

 

[TLEH]

I won't count Nedeljkovic since he's still in development, but it's basically 29-30 of 60-61 that spent some consistent time in an NHL net as a starter or backup.

DiPietro - 319 (concussion/hips)
Krahn - 1 (knee)
LeClaire - 173 (hip)
Blackburn - 63 (shoulder)
Lehtonen - 649
Fleury - 850
Montoya - 168
Price - 690

Were taken top 10 - with GP.. and besides Lehtonen, Price, Fleury who have had or are having solid careers, Al Montoya never really lived up to expectations and the rest had rough injuries that hampered their careers/development.

Taking a goalie early is a risk in the sense that there are a ton of things that can go wrong/injury risk seems greater. However, Vasilevskiy was ranked in the top 10 for quite a while in 2012, and looking back, Edmonton would have looked like geniuses taking him at #1OV. If the kid is talented enough, and a team needs goaltending depth, you take him. In this case, Carolina is such a good fit at 13. If he falls to 18ish, the Devils would be great as well.

The list honestly isn't good though. I would rather take my chances on drafting late goalies and signing undrafted college guys and hope to hit by hoarding lottery tickets.

 

[ChicagoBullsFan]

Nashville is my prediction.
Rinne is old and his retirement gets closer all the time.

Saros is good and young but small ( only 5'10 tall )
So in my opinion Askarov is that what doctor orders for Preds.
Yes i'm talking future starting goalie with franchise goalie potential ( Rinne's replacement )

 

[spockBokk]

Makes sense in CAR, but I don’t see it. Canes need a #1G at the start of next season, not in 3-5 years, which will likely be his timeline for arrival to the NHL. While wouldn’t be surprised it CAR takes him in the first round, I more so think they’ll go for a Jarvis (my fave at the moment), Mercer, Holloway or Zary. Or a faller out of the top 10 falls into their lap at 13, like Lundell.

This years ufa goalie crop is pretty extraordinary and other established #1 guys might hit the trade market. I think that’s how CAR finally gets their goalie, in UFA or trade. That said, I also wouldn’t be shocked if they just picked the Russian.

 

[Dr Salt]

Minnesota will probably take him.

 

[puckMAN]

Minnesota will probably take him.

As a wild fan I'm in the minority I'm sure,but I wouldn't hate it.

 

[AKL]

Minnesota will probably take him.

They most probably will not take him, I would bet money on it.

 

[57special]

I'm a Wild fan, and must be part of the majority, cause I would rage if they took Askarov with their 9oa.

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

I hope top-15.

 

[Unsustainable]

Hoping Carolina takes him

 

[MinJaBen]

Hoping Carolina takes him

Yeah, me too. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Minnesota take him, but I expect Nashville to take him. Those two seem like the most likely. The wildcard could be Detroit. They have the time to let him mature and StevieY is not afraid to go off the board if he really likes a guy.

 

[Mr Positive]

Scouting goalies has improved, and maybe development. We're far removed now from high profile busts/disappointments like Dipetro, Leclaire, and Lehtonhen

I would love him to fall the Oilers at 14. We don't invest high draft capital in goalies, not since Dubnyk, so this would be a great change.

I wouldn't normally hold hope for Askarov falling, but this draft seems great in forwards, and the teams in Askarov's range might want one instead.

 

[StreetHawk]

Scouting goalies has improved, and maybe development. We're far removed now from high profile busts/disappointments like Dipetro, Leclaire, and Lehtonhen

I would love him to fall the Oilers at 14. We don't invest high draft capital in goalies, not since Dubnyk, so this would be a great change.

I wouldn't normally hold hope for Askarov falling, but this draft seems great in forwards, and the teams in Askarov's range might want one instead.

Carter Hart making the NHL around half way through his first pro season is a bit outlier from how long it typically takes a goalie to make the NHL from their draft year.

Given the pressure to win, I think GMs are going to take a skater if there is a good one available. Think once you get past the teams at the bottom, then teams who are not desperate for a goalie and have the time to let him develop will jump in.

Nashville has been chasing a top forward for a long time, sacrificing Girard and Jones to grab Turris and Johansen in hopes of getting that help. If there is a good one when they draft, they have to take that forward.

I could see teams later in the draft eye the mid teens draft range if they wish to select him, so a trade up is possible. I would be looking at times with an aging goalie who have not secured their future guy yet. Might be a team like Chicago who takes him.

I just don't see Askarov going top 10, just given the teams that are drafting there.

 

[Cane mutiny]

Teens to twenty range, I think. Even there it's a gamble most teams will think twice about since many good skaters will still be on the board. There's also the Russian factor in his case, tho that concern seems to be diminished for most teams now. I wouldn't throw a fit if Canes take at 13, but would rather take a forward there and grab the next in line goalie with our first pick in the second round.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Makes sense in CAR, but I don’t see it. Canes need a #1G at the start of next season, not in 3-5 years, which will likely be his timeline for arrival to the NHL. While wouldn’t be surprised it CAR takes him in the first round, I more so think they’ll go for a Jarvis (my fave at the moment), Mercer, Holloway or Zary. Or a faller out of the top 10 falls into their lap at 13, like Lundell.

This years ufa goalie crop is pretty extraordinary and other established #1 guys might hit the trade market. I think that’s how CAR finally gets their goalie, in UFA or trade. That said, I also wouldn’t be shocked if they just picked the Russian.

I think the Canes sign Lehner this offseason.

 

[Cheddabombs]

First off, I love how any prospect drafted by Minnesota gets knocked down a peg or two simply because it's Minnesota. If Kahkonen had ended up in New York, or in Montreal, or anywhere, he'd be considered a top flight goaltending prospect.

Secondly, if I am guessing, you're talking about Blackwood right? Blackwood struggled a lot more in the AHL than Kahkonen. He has a few more games than Kahkonen, but Kahkonen was never demoted to the ECHL either. But Blackwood posted 88 GP, 2.95 GAA and a .897 SV% with 6 SO.

Kahkonen has played 73 games with a .916 SV% and a 2.45 GAA and 13 shutouts. Hell, in his first year Kahkonen matched Blackwood's SO total.

Kahkonen is extremely underrated as far as goaltenders go.

Thirdly, the Devils have questionable goaltending depth outside of Blackwood. Cole Brady hasn't even made it to the NCAA and uh is playing at Arizona State University, Gilles Senn is as old as Blackwood, but has played 1/4th of the time, McIntyre is 27 and Cormier is buried. That is pretty shaky depth. In the majors, they have Schneider and now Blackwood. They have 6 goaltenders, and only Blackwood has shown any prospects. Brady is a long term prospect, Senn is...just there. McIntyre is there. And Cormier isn't much of a prospect.

Minnesota doesn't have questionable depth. They have Jones (who may end up in the AHL or back in the OHL), Lindberg (who is currently splitting duties but has put up good numbers) that haven't even made it into the AHL. I wouldn't put it outside Minnesota to draft a goaltender again this year just to keep up with depth, but with Jones and Lindberg, I don't see them taking yet another long term goaltender, when they have two long term goaltenders that may end up being pretty good.

Finally, Minnesota doesn't have three first round picks. New Jersey could take Askarov and then two other good prospects in the mid-to-late first round. Minnesota can't do that.

Yeah, Blackwood wasn't that good in the AHL but since being brought up a few years ago he's been great in the NHL and he's undoubtedly the Devils starter moving forward, and I have a lot of confidence he'll do very well in that role.

You are right though, the Devils goaltending depth internally is putrid. I'm seemingly one of the few Devils fans that would be happy selecting Askarov with one of our firsts. The problem is, there's really no way they'll take him at #7 and I highly doubt he'll be available at #18. So in that sense I can't foresee the Devils taking him, we either pick too high or too low to realistically grab him.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

He's going to 13 - Carolina at the latest

 

[Bruce Granville]

Its not like a mid teens pick isn't risky no matter what the position.

But it‘s difficult to pair a goalie with an older D who makes him look good or let him develop on the 3rd line.

 

[BB88]

Makes sense in CAR, but I don’t see it. Canes need a #1G at the start of next season, not in 3-5 years, which will likely be his timeline for arrival to the NHL. While wouldn’t be surprised it CAR takes him in the first round, I more so think they’ll go for a Jarvis (my fave at the moment), Mercer, Holloway or Zary. Or a faller out of the top 10 falls into their lap at 13, like Lundell.

This years ufa goalie crop is pretty extraordinary and other established #1 guys might hit the trade market. I think that’s how CAR finally gets their goalie, in UFA or trade. That said, I also wouldn’t be shocked if they just picked the Russian.

Really nobody they pick should be expected to help in the near future.

Carolinas core is locked up minus goaltender and with Askarov they would have one of the best young cores in the league. Pretty much everything you are looking for from your core and Askarov on Elc would(potentially) go extremely nicely with Ahos/Svecs more expensive next deals.
& drafting Askarov shouldn’t take them off the goalie market, for example Lehner

I’d definitely push for him if I was in Carolinas table on draft day.

 

[DJB]

I think the Edmonton is the perfect landing spot for Askarov.

But if I recall they haven't drafted a ton out of Russia, but maybe an Oilers fan can clarify that for sure ?

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I think the Edmonton is the perfect landing spot for Askarov.

But if I recall they haven't drafted a ton out of Russia, but maybe an Oilers fan can clarify that for sure ?

They drafted two Russian league players last year (including a goalie, 85th OV) and drafted two Russian-born CHLers two years prior. They rarely go consecutive drafts without picking from Russia. They dont go to the well as much as some, but they definitely arent afraid to pick Russian players. Picking them high? That could be another story. The highest theyve drafted a Russian since is Yakupov is 83rd (2013), and they've only drafted a Russian-league player one time in the top 2 rounds of the draft: Mikhnov, 17th, in 2000

Also this is just my theory, but I think some teams like Edmonton, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg, Nashville, etc, might prioritize NHL-ready talent that can fill out their roster cheaply over these upcoming lean years. A guy like Lundell, for example, will be hard to pass on for a lot of the qualification round losers who thought they should be contending for a cup this season. Askarov might not be helped by this dynamic, if it is the reality