Where do you think Askarov will land?

[Beerfish]

I appreciate that it is not rocket science, its way more subjective and difficult then that. Not many text books and peer reviewed studies to expand on. Its way more like game theory.

Askarov should not go in the top 5. Its too high to chance on a goalie in a good deep draft. The sens have a bunch of goaltending prospects that have the potential to good, very good or much less likely "elite". Reaching for a goalie in their position would be daft.

But please enlighten me on your theory. Who are these goalies that a) arr consistently "elite', b) a high draft pick, let's say top 10 to give you an edge and c) have consistently driven team success.

I think it is evident that goalies are hard to predict. I prefer not spending a potentially blue chip assett on one.

Also, I think it is clear that a good system well executed with competent goaltending does keep the puck out of the net. Something that you do not have to waste a high pick for.

Question. Why did the gap in talent drop relative to other poaitions grow or even exist in the first place? I think it didn't. Goalies are just hard to predict. They were never drafted proportionately in the first round. High goalie pics often turn out to be bad or just good. Goailes that turn out to be "Elite" are distributed all across the draft. The best you can say about high draft goalies is that they have a higher floor. You can't say that about high draft picks of other position. They have a higher floor and are way, way more likely to be elite.

In my option Askarov goes 10-15 because of that high floor. I wouldnt want that for my team but hey, we aren't a hockey hive mind.

Fun fact. What do Brodeur, Hasek and Roy have in common. None of them went in the top 10.

In a redraft they sure as hell would have though right?

Goalie is the most important single position on a team and you get busts or guys that disappoint from every single position. I've never gotten this taboo of not wanting to drat a goalie high.

 

[Samsquanch]

Took the top 25 goalies from the playoffs (NHL.com rankings) and where they were drafted.

1. Andrei Vasilevskiy, TBL	1st
2. Tuukka Rask, BOS	1st
3. Ben Bishop, DAL	3rd
4. Jordan Binnington, STL	3rd
5. Connor Hellebuyck, WPG*	5th
6. Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK	1st
7. Braden Holtby, WSH	4th
8. Carter Hart, PHI	2nd
9. Frederik Andersen, TOR*	3rd
10. Jacob Markstrom, VAN*	2nd
11. Matt Murray, PIT*	3rd
12. Igor Shesterkin, NYR*	4th
13. Pavel Francouz, COL	ND
14. Philipp Grubauer, COL	4th
15. Darcy Kuemper, ARI*	6th
16. Juuse Saros, NSH*	4th
17. Robin Lehner, VGK	2nd
18. Carey Price, MTL*	1st
19. Sergei Bobrovsky, FLA*	ND
20. Petr Mrazek, CAR*	5th
21. Semyon Varlamov, NYI*	1st
22. Elvis Merzlikins, CBJ*	3rd
23. Joonas Korpisalo, CBJ*	3rd
24. Tristan Jarry, PIT*	2nd
25. Alex Stalock, MIN*	4th

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I would be very interested to see the numbers of goalies drafted in the 1st and 2nd that have busted over the same age spread.

I'm actually curious if the bust ratio is lower than skaters for goalies in the top 50, simply for the fact that they rarely go early, and I would imagine that teams have scouted the goalie to death before they are willing to give up a high pick on them.

 

[BB88]

The Devils with a better young goalie than Kahkonen might select Askarov. Kahkonen and prospects worse than Kahkonen are not going to stop Minnesota from selecting Askarov.

Devils have Hughes& Hischier in the middle.

Sure Minnesota can take him but I’d put the odds pretty low if Lundell/x is available

 

[Silky Johnson]

In a redraft they sure as hell would have though right?

Goalie is the most important single position on a team and you get busts or guys that disappoint from every single position. I've never gotten this taboo of not wanting to drat a goalie high.

Maybe they go higher in a redraft. But that doesn't change the likely correct perception that they are very difficult to predict and that success doesn't correlate anywhere near as well as skaters to their ranking as an 18 year old.

Redrafts have the benefit of hindsight and don't speak to predictive powers. The powerball lottery would be a great bet with the advantage of hindsight.

Beyond that, the economics of hockey disagree with you when you say that they are the most important positions. They aren't the highest paid players. The outliers with huge contracts are generally seen as negative from a cap perspective. They also have a weird habit of starting to suck all of a sudden or become successful when they are older. They don't have the same trade value as comparably elite skaters.

You can get keep the puck out of the net at an elite level with competent goaltending and a great system. Elite goal scoring relies to a higher degree on talent that also happens to be easier to predict.

 

[Broad Street Buddies]

Askarov to Carolina would make the Metro Division scary good in terms of young goalies with high potential.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Devils have Hughes& Hischier in the middle.

Sure Minnesota can take him but I’d put the odds pretty low if Lundell/x is available

Outside the top ten you aren’t going to be drafting players you can safely project to your top six. It’s BPA at that point with maybe a slight tilt towards positional need to break a tie.

 

[jumb0]

Hoping somewhere in the top 10

 

[Stuzchuk]

somewhere bet'n 9-14... EDM would be the latest that I would see him fall

 

[Skate2Stick]

I hope he goes 14

 

[Xirik]

I think Nashville will take him.

 

[voxel]

fans of every team that needs him don't want to draft him lol

I want my Oilers to pick him at 14. It’s been 16 years since we picked a goalie in the first (Dubnyk) so it’s about time and this prospect is legit.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Carolina should pick him. Their best player is Russian, so that would make Askarov feel more at home & less likely to defect to KHL.
The biggest shock would be the Panthers picking him knowing that they drafted Spencer Knight with their first last year and as well as the massive long term deal they gave Sergei Bobrovsky.

 

[ffh]

Can’t see why Minnesota would not take him.

 

[57special]

Aho is Russian?

MN would not take Askarov because they don't have any bloody C's. They need C's starting next year- I can see next season being a patchwork with limited games so they might scrape by w/o one, but by the next year the need will be critical, especially in the highly likely scenario that not only Koivu, but Staal will be out of the league, or severely diminished.

MN has three goalie prospects that rank higher than Hunter Jones, IMO;

Kahkonen - GOY in Iowa. Ready for NHL
Mat Robson- superb career with Gophers, now in AHL backing up KK.
Lindberg- UMASS Amherst. Very nice season last year. Still years away, but so would Askarov be.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I'd love for him to fall to the Oilers. Although tons on the Oilers board think he is a nothing prospect and drafting any goalie is a mostake

 

[simonedvinsson]

Aho is Russian?

MN would not take Askarov because they don't have any bloody C's.

Took me a second too. I think he was referring to Svechnikov, but I agree that Aho is the better player.

 

[oilers4life]

I'd love for him to fall to the Oilers. Although tons on the Oilers board think he is a nothing prospect and drafting any goalie is a mostake

im we have a ton of goalie prospects but if hes there non like askrov you just dont pass up on a goalie like that

 

[Czechboy]

I hope the Oil trade for Georgiev and draft Askarov. Let Georgiev and Koski split the duties till Georgiev steals his job.

 

[AKL]

Can’t see why Minnesota would not take him.

I have no idea why they would take him at 9.

 

[StreetHawk]

I have no idea why they would take him at 9.

Apparently, Minny has the AHL goalie of the year in their organization named Kahkonen. He is 24, and has been in the A the past 2 seasons. Likely they give him a look. And given their lack of offense in the Vancouver series, they need to take a skater.

For Askarov, given who are in the lottery group, almost no team would take him over the available skaters given each's current talent pool. Some teams are drafting too high to pass up scoring talent. Others, like Win, Ana, Fla have goalies and or prospect ones. If he doesn't go high, it is not a knock on his talent, but more the reality that it is very hard to get talented skaters, plus the normal development curve of goalies. Hart and Price are 2 of the guys who came up really early, with not even 1 full season in the A. That is still about 3 years post draft. Picks in the lottery are likely expected to be in year 2 in the NHL.

 

[Pitaya]

Currently at Nashville's pick in my voted-on mock draft and while I think they take Quinn, and then Florida wont take him obviously, I could see Carolina going for him

 

[Pitaya]

I hope the Oil trade for Georgiev and draft Askarov. Let Georgiev and Koski split the duties till Georgiev steals his job.

Oilers should probably stop picking up goaltending scraps from the Rangers - it hasnt worked well for them

 

[Gnashville]

I think Nashville will take him.

Have you seen our record with 1st round Goalies? No way dude, 7th round warm up Goalies are fine with me.

 

[Czechboy]

Oilers should probably stop picking up goaltending scraps from the Rangers - it hasnt worked well for them

Generally speaking I'd say we won the Talbot trade. I'm very high on Georgiev. Russia is creating one great goalie after another right now.

 

[PhilJets]

Hoping top 9