Where do the Ottawa Senators Truly Stand?

[DylanSensFan]

Think we finish closer to the division title than last place

This is a playoff team... their playing style wreaks of two seasons ago.

 

[Savannah Skunk]

Why on earth did so many teams forget about Legwand. I'm not worried about our offence's capacity to score, but our team defence's ability to keep pucks out. if we make the playoffs, Legwand and his influence on the youth will be a big reason why.

 

[BigBush*]

Why on earth did so many teams forget about Legwand. I'm not worried about our offence's capacity to score, but our team defence's ability to keep pucks out. if we make the playoffs, Legwand and his influence on the youth will be a big reason why.

I have no idea why teams were so interested in throwing big contracts at Statsny and Bolland on July 1 and not Legwand. Maybe because he played in Nasville? Or maybe teams were scared of his age, and that he didn't do great in Detroit?
Or maybe he really wanted to sign in Ottawa?
I need to stop pumping his tires so much and see how he holds up over a whole season even though he's looked amazing in preseason

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

I have no idea why teams were so interested in throwing big contracts at Statsny and Bolland on July 1 and not Legwand. Maybe because he played in Nasville? Or maybe teams were scared of his age, and that he didn't do great in Detroit?
Or maybe he really wanted to sign in Ottawa?
I need to stop pumping his tires so much and see how he holds up over a whole season even though he's looked amazing in preseason

Agreed. It baffles me that Legwand consistently put up such good numbers in a defensively-oriented system. Can't wait to see what he can do with a more wide-open team and Karlsson feeding him from the back-end.

 

[Benjamin]

I expect to finish bottom 10 in the NHL.

 

[YNWA14]

I think we'll be a bubble team. Lots of hard working players and a good coach tends to have teams that overperform relative to their individual talents (not that there aren't some great talents on the team). Realistically anywhere between 7 and 12 in the East. I don't there's much chance of being higher, but I suppose it could be lower.

 

[Micklebot]

We also got pretty lucky that Spezza, Michalek, and an aging Alfredsson coming off surgery managed to stay so healthy in that season. And we still were just the 8th seed in the playoffs.

Alfredsson and Michalek's health was pretty much on par with the norm, nothing to do with luck. Alfredsson played in that range almost every one of the prior 10 seasons and the surgery was part of why he stayed healthy, it was to correct issues that forced him to miss games in the past. Michalek's two prior years were the outliers, not the 11/12 season. a ~75 ish game season is the norm for him, getting a couple extra games isn't anything to call lucky.

The 2013 "pesky" year built up unrealistic expectations. The team got ridiculously good goaltending that was not going to stay that good, and then got a favourable match-up in the first round, where Anderson's goaltending continued to be out of this world. It also gave up a lot of shots against, though not as much as last year where they averaged the 2nd most shots against in the league (which is pretty horrendous).There's a strong argument to be made that the results the team got in 2013 were a mirage. Unless Anderson and Lehner get close to their 2013 forms, saying the Sens are in an uphill battle to even be a bubble-team in 2014-15 is not at all far fetched. Though, if Karlsson's achilles is healed up more, and allows him to get back to his 2011-12 form, that definitely helps.

Goaltending was certainly unsustainable, however it wasn't the .940Sv% that people talk about. Our team sv% was .933, still anomolous, but not quite as extreme. If, however, you're going to point the finger at anomolous Sv%, you have to also acknowledge our anomolous Sh%. While we may have been lacking high end offensive talent, similarly challenged teams like Buffalo and Columbus were able to score at a much higher rate. Had we had a similar sh% to Buffalo or Columbus, we'd have scored another 30 goals that year; enough to offset a regression to the mean in goaltending.

Last year was frustrating more than anything because this team seemed to shoot itself in the foot often (players not developing as well as planned or even regressing, baffling coaching decisions, etc), and then management decided to not do anything to address its biggest weakness, the defense, in the offseason. Instead, they're just hoping some players develop enough, again, as they did the year before. While hoping young players pan out is fine, as is giving them a chance, best to have an insurance policy if they don't. It gives the impression that they didn't learn from their mistakes, and that's troubling.

The team made changes to address what they considered the biggest issue last year: the compete level was awful. Spezza is gone, replaced by Chiasson, Borowiecki and Legwand, all guys considered to have very good compete levels. Lazar looks like he could make the team full time too. Wiercioch looks to be the 7th man, while good offensively, he lacked on the defensive side, and has been criticised for his compete level.

Team defense is also addressed with the addition of Legwand and subtraction of Spezza; Defense isn't all on the defensmen.

Also, a team out of the playoffs, regardless of the talk from the dressing room, playing better than it had prior due to expectations being out the window is not unheard of. Neither is other teams taking opponents lighter when they're not realistically in the playoff hunt. The Sens ended the year with a 5 game winning streak when our chances were all but mathematically done, and the complete implosion of the Leafs, who were ahead of us in the standings for the vast majority of the year, should be noted too.

While this is a factor, the biggest problem last year was players recovering form major injuries and shaking the rust off after missing significant time. The team started playing better as they started getting closer to 100%. I'm willing to say the two opposing factors cancelled themselves out for arguments sake.

The West is also a far harder conference. Good chance Dallas would have done much better if it were an Eastern team. Similarly, the odds of the Sens being that close to the playoffs in the West are pretty unlikely IMO.

That's what poeple said about Detroit and Columbus, but they pretty much maintained status quo. The difference isn't as great as it's made out to be. On a macro level, it adds up, but on a team by team basis, the change is minimal, particularly when not talking about the elite teams.

 

[FlyingJ]

Alfredsson and Michalek's health was pretty much on par with the norm, nothing to do with luck. Alfredsson played in that range almost every one of the prior 10 seasons and the surgery was part of why he stayed healthy, it was to correct issues that forced him to miss games in the past. Michalek's two prior years were the outliers, not the 11/12 season. a ~75 ish game season is the norm for him, getting a couple extra games isn't anything to call lucky.

In 3 of his 5 seasons in Ottawa, Michalek has missed 16 games or more. Throw in the fact that his 35 goal and 60 point season during those 5 years is the outlier.

Alfredsson was generally a very healthy player, but coming off his surgery after a 2010-11 season that saw him get 31 points in 54 games, nobody expected a 27 goal and 59 point campaign the next year. There was legitimate reason to worry, given his age even then, that we would see a continued decline.

Goaltending was certainly unsustainable, however it wasn't the .940Sv% that people talk about. Our team sv% was .933, still anomolous, but not quite as extreme. If, however, you're going to point the finger at anomolous Sv%, you have to also acknowledge our anomolous Sh%. While we may have been lacking high end offensive talent, similarly challenged teams like Buffalo and Columbus were able to score at a much higher rate. Had we had a similar sh% to Buffalo or Columbus, we'd have scored another 30 goals that year; enough to offset a regression to the mean in goaltending.

Would it be a wash? What role does shot selection versus just throwing stuff at the net play?

The team made changes to address what they considered the biggest issue last year: the compete level was awful. Spezza is gone, replaced by Chiasson, Borowiecki and Legwand, all guys considered to have very good compete levels. Lazar looks like he could make the team full time too. Wiercioch looks to be the 7th man, while good offensively, he lacked on the defensive side, and has been criticised for his compete level.

Team defense is also addressed with the addition of Legwand and subtraction of Spezza; Defense isn't all on the defensmen.

True, defense isn't all on the defensemen. However, there's no question that too many of our defensemen struggled getting the puck out of their own end last year. As for Spezza being so bad defensively, I don't think anyone will argue he was great, but generally speaking Spezza produced more at even strength than he gave up. Meanwhile, a player like Michalek, believed to be a strong two-way player, actually has sad GF20 and GA20 stats without Spezza in his time here. Largely, I think Spezza was scapegoated for this team's shortcomings last year, and too many fans are willing to eat that narrative up, often the fans who hated Spezza for his drop-passes alone. It's not like Neil and Phillips were leading the way by example with their play last year, yet we don't see them shipped out of town. Neil especially in his own zone can lack urgency.

I'm also dubious about the organization's extreme emphasis on "compete level." Basically comes off as a cheaper way for the team to try and convince fans they're addressing the issues this team had last year as opposed to improving the roster to a significant degree. Perhaps they tried and couldn't get a free agent in or make a trade, but for management to seemingly bury their collective heads in the sand regarding the defense is frustrating. Ya, the team looked to lackadaisical often, but that doesn't there wasn't a lack of skill and puck-moving ability among defensemen like Cowen, Phillips, and Gryba, and everyone struggled with their positioning at points last year.

But again, certain fans eat this stuff up. People love lunchpail players because their effort is easy to see, but that doesn't mean they're necessarily giving more effort than others. And it certainly doesn't guarantee they're better players.

While this is a factor, the biggest problem last year was players recovering form major injuries and shaking the rust off after missing significant time. The team started playing better as they started getting closer to 100%. I'm willing to say the two opposing factors cancelled themselves out for arguments sake.

Go figure, two such players in Spezza and especially Michalek only seemed to produce better after we got Hemsky, which was at a point where realistically we were pretty out of the playoff picture given the number of teams ahead and the way they were playing. Not everyone was imploding like the Leafs. Or did Hemsky just benefit from Michalek and Spezza finally rounding into form?

That's what poeple said about Detroit and Columbus, but they pretty much maintained status quo. The difference isn't as great as it's made out to be. On a macro level, it adds up, but on a team by team basis, the change is minimal, particularly when not talking about the elite teams.

There are definitely more elite teams in the West though. Also hard to evaluate Detroit when they had so many injuries and an aging lineup. Columbus also had Horton and Gaborik (before he was traded to LA) missing significant time. It's not as cut and dry as "well, they didn't do significantly better in the East THIS YEAR, thus this whole idea the West is stronger is overblown."

 

[Ice-Tray]

Odd to read Ottawa fan posts arguing so vehemently for why they think we will suck this year.

Glass half empty people sure are different.

Cue: "We're not different, we're just realistic!"

The league is so wide open that it is next to impossible to predict where the middle echelon teams will shake out. A couple teams are locks to battle for top spots, the rest can slot in anywhere...

Gotta love parity!

 

[YNWA14]

Yep, it feels at least as though the NHL has the best parity of any top level sports league.

That said Ottawa definitely has a shot at the playoffs, though I don't have any expectations of it. I'll just enjoy the ride.

 

[Niv]

I asked my dog what he thinks and he said Ottawa is probably going to make the playoffs

 

[Scrub*]

Top 5 pick incoming unless Bm trades it for a winger

 

[God Says No]

Top 5 pick incoming unless Bm trades it for a winger

Really? I think missing a top 4 D is the reason we might finish on the bottom, not a missing top 6 winger.

 

[TeamRenzo]

I asked my dog what he thinks and he said Ottawa is probably going to make the playoffs

I asked my dog and she said the season will be ruff...

Ok, that was awful.

There are so many question marks on this team, it makes it tough to give a prediction. Can Stone and Hoffman play like top-6 wingers, can Zibby be a 2nd line center, how does Turris handle being the go to center, can the defensive core rebound, etc....

That being said I believe the Sens will be better than a lot of prognosticators are expecting.

 

[Scrub*]

Really? I think missing a top 4 D is the reason we might finish on the bottom, not a missing top 6 winger.

You're right. That's not what I meant. We traded our top pick for a winger last year so I'm expecting a top 5 pick unless BM trades it away again.

 

[MakeOttawaGreatAgain]

I'm going to say the Sens finish 4th in the division. Right behind Boston, Tampa, and Montreal. (Ew. I know, right?)

In my eyes, if the teams are all 100% healthy, our division is broken into these tiers this year:

Really good:
Rupert the Bear

Pretty good:
Pikachu

Good enough to compete in the East:
Japanese Olympic Diving Team
Super Nintendo
Leaves
Soviet Octopie

Pretty darned bad:
Baywatch
Mooooooooooooooo (I'm not actually sure what sound Bison make)


And I'm going to predict the playoff spots for this year are going to be (In no particular order):

Rupert the Bear
Pingu
Cheese Steak
Super Nintendo
Les Poo Poos
Leaves
Rags
Pikachus

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

I'm going to say the Sens finish 4th in the division. Right behind Boston, Tampa, and Montreal. (Ew. I know, right?)

In my eyes, if the teams are all 100% healthy, our division is broken into these tiers this year:

Really good:
Rupert the Bear

Pretty good:
Pikachu

Good enough to compete in the East:
Japanese Olympic Diving Team
Super Nintendo
Leaves
Soviet Octopie

Pretty darned bad:
Baywatch
Mooooooooooooooo (I'm not actually sure what sound Bison make)


And I'm going to predict the playoff spots for this year are going to be (In no particular order):

Rupert the Bear
Pingu
Cheese Steak
Super Nintendo
Les Poo Poos
Leaves
Rags
Pikachus

These are great nicknames, but I will still be referring to the Bruins as the Paddington Bears.

 

[SlapJack]

Something that doesn't get mentioned much is how the Atlantic division is pretty weak. And who in it truly improved for this season?

Boston will still be good but they lost Iginla and Boychuk. That will matter.

Montreal has like one guy that can score, 2 good defensemen, and a great goalie, not much else.

Toronto? Please. They are not good and got worse in the offseason.

Buffalo improved. I don't think they improved to the point of gaining 40 pts over last year to make the playoffs. And Miller is gone.

Florida might be better, but they're still not a playoff team.

Tampa is ok, but they really rode Bishop last year for points. Let's see if he can repeat that and we'll also see what missing MSL for a full season will be like.

Detroit you can't count out.

Ottawa? Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong last year. Not one did they get into a groove and a lot of it had to do with having young team and that horrific trip out west to start the season.

It's not impossible to think the Senators could finish with home ice savage advantage for the playoffs. To me, that is more likely than getting McDavid or Eichel.

 

[Micklebot]

In 3 of his 5 seasons in Ottawa, Michalek has missed 16 games or more. Throw in the fact that his 35 goal and 60 point season during those 5 years is the outlier.

Alfredsson was generally a very healthy player, but coming off his surgery after a 2010-11 season that saw him get 31 points in 54 games, nobody expected a 27 goal and 59 point campaign the next year. There was legitimate reason to worry, given his age even then, that we would see a continued decline.

having a cause for potential concern and being lucky that he stayed healthy are two different things. The surgery was done specifically to help ensure he was healthy, so yes, the expectation was that he would play more than the year before. As for Michalek, he suffered injuries as the result of specific events that caused him to miss time in those seasons; that's different than a guy like Spezza who's back just happens to cease up.

Would it be a wash? What role does shot selection versus just throwing stuff at the net play?

Take a look at our shot heat maps we got plenty of shots from quality locations.

True, defense isn't all on the defensemen. However, there's no question that too many of our defensemen struggled getting the puck out of their own end last year. As for Spezza being so bad defensively, I don't think anyone will argue he was great, but generally speaking Spezza produced more at even strength than he gave up. Meanwhile, a player like Michalek, believed to be a strong two-way player, actually has sad GF20 and GA20 stats without Spezza in his time here. Largely, I think Spezza was scapegoated for this team's shortcomings last year, and too many fans are willing to eat that narrative up, often the fans who hated Spezza for his drop-passes alone. It's not like Neil and Phillips were leading the way by example with their play last year, yet we don't see them shipped out of town. Neil especially in his own zone can lack urgency.

Spezza was an elite player, though not so much last year. but was never good defensively. He took risks to produce offensively and usually it paid off. Michalek is a good secondary player, but when his skating is limited like it was last year, his effectiveness is highly reduced. Pair that with Spezza not running on all cylinders and you have a disaster. When healthy though, Michalek is fine.

As for Spezza getting scapegoated, to a certain extent that't true, but he was a detriment to the team last year (on the whole).

I'm also dubious about the organization's extreme emphasis on "compete level." Basically comes off as a cheaper way for the team to try and convince fans they're addressing the issues this team had last year as opposed to improving the roster to a significant degree. Perhaps they tried and couldn't get a free agent in or make a trade, but for management to seemingly bury their collective heads in the sand regarding the defense is frustrating. Ya, the team looked to lackadaisical often, but that doesn't there wasn't a lack of skill and puck-moving ability among defensemen like Cowen, Phillips, and Gryba, and everyone struggled with their positioning at points last year.

But again, certain fans eat this stuff up. People love lunchpail players because their effort is easy to see, but that doesn't mean they're necessarily giving more effort than others. And it certainly doesn't guarantee they're better players.

I agree that compete level isn't everything, but you didn't have to watch long to see that the team was sorely lacking in that regard last year. Numerous times players weren't hustling, were cheating offensively, and looked like passengers. The thing is, hard work is contagious, as is slacking. Spezza did the latter, Boroweiki does the former. I imagine we'll see more of the former this year.

Go figure, two such players in Spezza and especially Michalek only seemed to produce better after we got Hemsky, which was at a point where realistically we were pretty out of the playoff picture given the number of teams ahead and the way they were playing. Not everyone was imploding like the Leafs. Or did Hemsky just benefit from Michalek and Spezza finally rounding into form?

First, Hemsky hadn't looked good in years, so yes, Hemsky definately benefited from playing with those two at the right time. They, of course, also benefited from what was a significant upgrade over Greening.

The leafs imploding is irrelevant to how we were playing. Maybe if the kept their play up, we finish behind them, but that doesn't change how our team played.

There are definitely more elite teams in the West though. Also hard to evaluate Detroit when they had so many injuries and an aging lineup. Columbus also had Horton and Gaborik (before he was traded to LA) missing significant time. It's not as cut and dry as "well, they didn't do significantly better in the East THIS YEAR, thus this whole idea the West is stronger is overblown."

Detroit was among the league leaders in man games lost in the lockout year too. Injuries are nothing new to them.

Gaborik played 12 games with them in 12-13, and Johanson had yet to break out. Take a look at Columbus' respective rosters from 12-13 and 13-14 and try and tell me that they had a better team on paper in 2012-13.

 

[PeterSidorkiewicz]

45°18' North and 75°55' West.

 

[starling]

Corey Pronman's projected standings:

ATL Div: BOS, TBL, MTL
MET Div: PIT, NYR, CBJ
WCs: NYI, OTT.
OUT (in order): PHI, NJD, DET, WSH, TOR, FLA, CAR, BUF.

 

[TheNewEra]

we are going to be 2nd in the division, be called an anomaly. We are going to bring #peskysens back in a big way and we are going to make some noise this year

i maybe a bit out of it right now, but the division is up for grabs, see no reason why ottawa cant make a play for it

 

[KevinRedkey]

Pittsburgh, Boston, NY Rangers and Detroit are the only 4 teams in the East that have made the playoffs each of the last 3 years. You gotta think they are locks until proven otherwise.

Philly, Montreal, and Tampa are likely to make it... and Columbus looks solid and I think they are top 8.

I haven't even mentioned Washington yet.

Ottawa is on NYI and Toronto level... a team that could make it if they stay healthy and another team underachieves for whatever reason.

I personally have us finishing 12th, ahead of New Jersey, Florida, Buffalo and Carolina. I think only a few pints will separate 10th from 12th though.

1. Pittsburgh
2. Boston
3. NY Rangers
4. Tampa Bay
5. Philadelphia
6. Detroit
7. Montreal
8. Columbus
-----------------------
9. Washington
10. Toronto
11. NY Islanders
12. Ottawa
13. New Jersey
14. Florida
15. Buffalo
16. Carolina

 

[TheNewEra]

Pittsburgh, Boston, NY Rangers and Detroit are the only 4 teams in the East that have made the playoffs each of the last 3 years. You gotta think they are locks until proven otherwise.

Philly, Montreal, and Tampa are likely to make it... and Columbus looks solid and I think they are top 8.

I haven't even mentioned Washington yet.

Ottawa is on NYI and Toronto level... a team that could make it if they stay healthy and another team underachieves for whatever reason.

I personally have us finishing 12th, ahead of New Jersey, Florida, Buffalo and Carolina. I think only a few pints will separate 10th from 12th though.

1. Pittsburgh
2. Boston
3. NY Rangers
4. Tampa Bay
5. Philadelphia
6. Detroit
7. Montreal
8. Columbus
-----------------------
9. Washington
10. Toronto
11. NY Islanders
12. Ottawa
13. New Jersey
14. Florida
15. Buffalo
16. Carolina

All 4 of those locks that you mentioned arguably got weaker in the offseason, then in those that you say most likely will make it only tampa has really made improvements buts thats only on paper. Columbus has most of their team injured, washington and NYI have made improvements on paper and Toronto basically recycled players.

I agree with your top 11 haha but i would say that pittsburgh and boston are locks for a playoff spot not necessarily the division title. the rest of the spots are up for grabs its just a matter of who actually steps up

 

[bert]

Really? I think missing a top 4 D is the reason we might finish on the bottom, not a missing top 6 winger.

Unbelievable that anyone thinks different.

The forwards are probably the biggest strength of the team.