Where do the Ottawa Senators Truly Stand?

[Super Cake]

Just because they request a trade, does not mean we gotta honour it.

Just Saying.

Just because the team does not have to honor it does not mean that the player will not do anything in his power to try to force the team into trading him.

Just saying.

 

[FlyingJ]

2011-12 : 92 pts, made the playoffs, lost in 7 games vs the Eastern Champs (Rangers) and even lead 3-2

We also got pretty lucky that Spezza, Michalek, and an aging Alfredsson coming off surgery managed to stay so healthy in that season. And we still were just the 8th seed in the playoffs.

2012-13 : (pro-rated) 96 pts, made the playoffs, beat the Habs (2nd in East) easily in 5, outscoring them 20-9 but lost to one of the 2 powerhouse in the East (Pens) in the 2nd round

The 2013 "pesky" year built up unrealistic expectations. The team got ridiculously good goaltending that was not going to stay that good, and then got a favourable match-up in the first round, where Anderson's goaltending continued to be out of this world. It also gave up a lot of shots against, though not as much as last year where they averaged the 2nd most shots against in the league (which is pretty horrendous).There's a strong argument to be made that the results the team got in 2013 were a mirage. Unless Anderson and Lehner get close to their 2013 forms, saying the Sens are in an uphill battle to even be a bubble-team in 2014-15 is not at all far fetched. Though, if Karlsson's achilles is healed up more, and allows him to get back to his 2011-12 form, that definitely helps.

2013-14 : 88 pts, missed the playoffs by 5 pts, Conclusion : horrendous campaign

Sounds really dumb to me. Sens finished 21th overall, Dallas who were 16th (pretty much average 16/30 no?) had 3 more points and made the playoffs... Were they horrendous too?

Last year was frustrating more than anything because this team seemed to shoot itself in the foot often (players not developing as well as planned or even regressing, baffling coaching decisions, etc), and then management decided to not do anything to address its biggest weakness, the defense, in the offseason. Instead, they're just hoping some players develop enough, again, as they did the year before. While hoping young players pan out is fine, as is giving them a chance, best to have an insurance policy if they don't. It gives the impression that they didn't learn from their mistakes, and that's troubling.

Also, a team out of the playoffs, regardless of the talk from the dressing room, playing better than it had prior due to expectations being out the window is not unheard of. Neither is other teams taking opponents lighter when they're not realistically in the playoff hunt. The Sens ended the year with a 5 game winning streak when our chances were all but mathematically done, and the complete implosion of the Leafs, who were ahead of us in the standings for the vast majority of the year, should be noted too.

The West is also a far harder conference. Good chance Dallas would have done much better if it were an Eastern team. Similarly, the odds of the Sens being that close to the playoffs in the West are pretty unlikely IMO.

 

[OttawaSenators11]

I don't think this team makes the post-season.

While the d shouldn't be as bad as last year, i still don't think it will be very good.

Also wouldn't surprise me to see some guys take a step back playing vs. top d-men the majority of the time during a full season.

 

[krapsik]

I see Sens fighting for the division. And i am serious.
I think we see one trade in a start of the season and huge pick-up on a deadline.
Who knows, whats next

 

[Flamingo]

Though a top-5 draft pick is enticing, I think we only get there by having some core players really flounder. I don't mean Zibanejad struggles to find his offensive game, or Michalek only pots 15 goals. I mean the MoToR line struggles. Or Cowen continues to play like he did last season, Methot isn't back in the lineup, and Karlsson takes a step backwards.

I'm not wishing for that kind of failure. The draft is a silver lining, but it doesn't make a crappy season all that palatable.

 

[Tuna99]

If Cowen plays like a top 4 Dman and Zibby plays like a #2 Center we are on our way.

One thing we are seeing is Murray oversold us in our prospects and we are seeing the high picks - Cowen, Zibby, Weircoche, Lehner have some struggles last season and this preseason, these 4 players will make us a good team or a non playoff team.

Gotta be honest and say that we can't win without these 4, weircoche is almost a journeyman right now and Cowen's game has huge question marks

 

[Dysentery]

The east looks horrid.

If we are getting McDavid then we are screwed. Getting McDavid means our rebuild is the 2nd greatest failure in the history of hockey.

The reason Ottawa is rated so low is because people thought it would be funny...and it kinda is.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Sens are still a bubble team, like in the last 3 years. This team is still very young and inexperienced, hasn't "broke out" yet.

But that article was horrible...



2011-12 : 92 pts, made the playoffs, lost in 7 games vs the Eastern Champs (Rangers) and even lead 3-2

2012-13 : (pro-rated) 96 pts, made the playoffs, beat the Habs (2nd in East) easily in 5, outscoring them 20-9 but lost to one of the 2 powerhouse in the East (Pens) in the 2nd round

2013-14 : 88 pts, missed the playoffs by 5 pts, Conclusion : horrendous campaign

Sounds really dumb to me. Sens finished 21th overall, Dallas who were 16th (pretty much average 16/30 no?) had 3 more points and made the playoffs... Were they horrendous too?



Hemsky played 20 games for the Sens, and people act like the Sens "LOST" him... lol

Spezza + Hemsky in 2013-14 : 109 points

Legwand + Chiasson in 2013-14 : 86 points

- Chiasson was a rookie and had way less ice-time and opportunity than Spezza/Hemsky
- I know which duo I'd take for the defensive side of things...
- No mention of Stone, Hoffman, Lazar...

"Lost a lot" sounds credible.




Sens gave up 258 goals last year... Shootouts goal for a loss don't count... People who know a bit about the NHL know that.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm?fetchKey=20142ALLSAAAll&sort=goalsAgainst&viewName=goalsAgainst


So I decided I had to stop reading. Can you blame me for that? It sounded like the average poster around here.



Personally, I don't make those "predictions", because it's useless. So many things can happen and it tilts things one way or another.

No, instead I watch people BE WRONG, because you know what? They are always wrong outside of 2-3 teams near the top and 2-3 teams near the bottom. I have been witnessing that for a long time now. In fact, the way they evaluate this makes me even more confident about Sens chances to make the playoffs this year. I was way less condifent last year. I'm not really a "concensus guy" it seems.

Had to go and ruin all the doom and gloom with your facts eh? I will stick to the "experts" who base predictions on tangible evidence like jersey colour, there other media buddies opinions, last experience visiting the city, market size etc....

I like what one poster said, the only people tapped into the Ottawa Sens team are the Ottawa fans themselves almost exclusively (and even then), nobody outside of the city cares to dig deeper into the team and thus just spews out the same stuff as everyone else. Seriously when is the last time these guys even came close to properly evaluating our franchise.

I see this team sneaking in to the playoffs, i know it is just the pre-season but i have seen a team with skill that will outwork a lot of teams this year imo

 

[GimmeMyJetpack]

Remember when that one publication predicted that we'd make the SC Finals last year? Good times.

Actually Hockey Forecaster predicted we would win the stanley cup. They weren't the only ones. It made sense at the time.

 

[OgieO]

A lot of "experts" seem to have us in line for a top 2 pick. I kinda see us pushing for a playoff spot, but maybe I'm overly optimistic.

Hard to really tell I suppose, if we can't find 3 D behind EK to step up and assume a top 4 role, we're toast. But if Ceci and Cowen do take the next step, a top 4 of EK-Methot-Ceci-Cowen could be pretty darned good.

I think the most likely spot will be in the 7th to 11th but we're really hard to pin down until we see how the young players have progressed - Zibanejad, Ceci, Cowen, Stone & Chiasson all look to have critical roles, will they be able to handle it?

 

[BondraTime]

If things stay status Quo, we are a bottom 10 team in the league.

If Zib and Cowen progress in their development, we are in the running for the playoffs.

 

[SevenOfSpades]

The east looks horrid.

If we are getting McDavid then we are screwed. Getting McDavid means our rebuild is the 2nd greatest failure in the history of hockey.

The reason Ottawa is rated so low is because people thought it would be funny...and it kinda is.

I don't think I follow your logic. Getting McDavid or Eichel could potentially make us a contending team for the next ten years...

 

[Flamingo]

I don't think I follow your logic. Getting McDavid or Eichel could potentially make us a contending team for the next ten years...

A season that earned us a top-2 pick might impel Murray to jettison some players, and we would be looking at 3-4 years before being able to say, "contend." I don't think this team is a bottom-feeder unless some of our roster have terrible setbacks. So I don't imagine McDavid as current roster + McDavid.

Also, I would hate to hear about Melnyk's willingness to spend for another couple of years.

 

[coladin]

Bubble team. The East has a lot of bubble teams and only a few that actually escape that: Boston and Pittsburgh.

I am not convinced in the abilities of Tampa and Montreal to pull away from the peleton of bubble teams. I include everyone else in the bubble group. Even Buffalo. It is far too unpredictable as these teams have a lot of youth and inexperience which can lead to costly giveaways, upsets, etc...

Should be fun to watch!

 

[maclean]

If we are getting McDavid then we are screwed. Getting McDavid means our rebuild is the 2nd greatest failure in the history of hockey.

This is my perspective too. If after all the changes made we are getting worse not better then one player is not going to save us. Two words: Edmonton Oilers

 

[bert]

We'll need significant leaps forward from our young D to make it in.

This exactly this.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Said it before, if this team is not bottom 5 it will be a fun season to wreak havoc on all the experts both on HF and paid one's within the media

 

[SilverSeven]

Think we finish closer to the division title than last place

 

[Quo]

Actually Hockey Forecaster predicted we would win the stanley cup. They weren't the only ones. It made sense at the time.

Yeah, that was the one.

We'll need significant leaps forward from our young D to make it in.

This exactly this.

Pretty much.

 

[sensR4real]

Think we finish closer to the division title than last place

This!

 

[Knave]

There are so many crappy teams in the East and we're one of them. We could finish in the playoffs or near the bottom, who knows.

 

[SilverSeven]

I think you are all too negative. Im as big a Spezza fan as there is, but him being gone will do a lot for the team IMO. Outside of Karlsson there wasnt really anyone that could keep up with Spezza on the team....he didn't fit anymore. Legwand does fit...and now we potentially have 3 centres who can play both ends of the ice and post 50 points each.

This team will be MUCH closer to the team of 2 years ago. It wont be relying on Spezza like it has for the past decade. Each line will be chipping in. You can tell they are changing their gameplan by bringing offensive guys into the bottom 6.

Im pretty excited to watch this team this year. I think they will surprise a lot of people.

 

[Flamingo]

I feel the same way, SilverSeven. But I usually feel like that in the first week of October.

I'm especially excited this year that some of our promising prospects will be put to the test, and MacLean said the right things at the beginning of camp about unleashing the offensive talent.

I'm pumped up for the season, let me tell you.

 

[sanityplease]

General consensus has been wrong about the Sens since the pizza line days. It's just too hard to predict what a character group will do, they either click (& overachieve) or don't click (& fail miserably)

If the general consensus puts the Sens between bubble team & bottom feeder, then I'll bet that they're easily in the playoffs. Going to grind out wins just like in the preseason & two years ago.

 

[Xspyrit]

If we do finish around there, isn't it still extremely likely that we'd be in a position to select a really good player anyway? Seems like a made up issue.

Exactly, Sens picked up Ceci at 15th and Lazar at 17th. The upcoming draft sounds like the best in a while, so I'm confident they can get another high quality piece for the future...

Opposing bitter fans (Leafs + Habs mainly) say the Sens are garbage but unlike them (Montreal got Galchenyuk 3rd OA, got lucky with Price 5th OA / Leafs got 4 top-10 picks in the last 7 drafts), we don't get loser picks much (Zibanejad 6th OA and Cowen 9th OA). So forget about those top-5 picks, that's not for the Sens.

Mediocracy kills a franchise. I rather get a high-end pick than just miss the playoff or being being dusted off in the first round.

We could get a decent player, but we have enough of them anyways.

No, it's just a perception. I made a lot of researches about the draft in the last few drafts. First, outside of top-3 picks, the draft is a real crapshoot and you get even more elite players outside of the top-3 than in the top-3... Of course, your chances goes up a lot if you pick high but I'm sorry but I don't see being as incompetent any time soon. This team won't draft tp-3 for a while, unless luck is involved.

Doesn't matter much though... Look at some of the greatest players in (new franchise) Sens history and where they were picked in the draft... Alfredsson, Karlsson, Havlat, Hossa, Chara, Hasek, Neil, Fisher, Vermette and soon we will add names like Lazar, Ceci, Lehner to that group

Top-3 picks, Sens trade for them : Turris was a 3rd OA and Ryan was a 2nd OA. Also, Legwand was a 2nd OA, Zibanejad and Michalek were 6th OA, Cowen was a 9th OA...

People, stop worry about that, it doesn't guarantee anything (ask Oilers and many other franchises). What is important is the quality of your drafting in relation to your position and the development of those picks (Karlsson, Lehner, Silfverberg, Stone, Ceci, Smith, Dzingel, Lazar, Hoffman... etc etc etc... there's so many)

Maybe if the team miss the playoffs but gave their best, hockey Gods will reward them with a nice pick. Tanking is for losers and I don't think it really exists anyway. To be in the NHL, you have to be freaking competitive and I have never someone competitive who would lose a game just because (unless corrupted money was involved of course)

You seem to be predicting we are a bubble team that could make the playoffs.

Ironic much?

I'm not predicting anything... The Sens are still a bubble team like they were the 3 last seasons... That is until they "break out" as a team. I think it will be more next year.

And in case you misinterpreted what I said, I was talking more about all those panelists, analysts or whatever medias so-called experts.

I'm just starting to wonder if this orginzation is too high on its own players in general instead of moving guys on and picking up players from winning organizations where they can't keep their players because of the cap.

Good post in general but just going to comment on this. Team has traded Fisher, Kelly, Silfverberg, Spezza, etc in the last few years. I don't think they are "scared to trade anybody.

We also got pretty lucky that Spezza, Michalek, and an aging Alfredsson coming off surgery managed to stay so healthy in that season. And we still were just the 8th seed in the playoffs.

Best argument you could find is luck? What if we were "unlucky" last season?

Anyway, the point wasn't even this but more that there is not A WHOLE WORLD of difference between 92, 96 and 88 points. The first two seasons, the team made the playoffs and did relatively well. Last year they missed because they were madly inconsistent (comes with youth)

So the first two years, the Sens were an up and coming team, young successful squad but just because they didn't win 2-3 more games they were horrendous?

It sounds really dumb in my rational mind.

The 2013 "pesky" year built up unrealistic expectations. The team got ridiculously good goaltending that was not going to stay that good, and then got a favourable match-up in the first round, where Anderson's goaltending continued to be out of this world. It also gave up a lot of shots against, though not as much as last year where they averaged the 2nd most shots against in the league (which is pretty horrendous).There's a strong argument to be made that the results the team got in 2013 were a mirage. Unless Anderson and Lehner get close to their 2013 forms, saying the Sens are in an uphill battle to even be a bubble-team in 2014-15 is not at all far fetched. Though, if Karlsson's achilles is healed up more, and allows him to get back to his 2011-12 form, that definitely helps.

I'm among people who didn't have unrealistic expecations after that season. I was saying they will still have to fight for a playoff spot, like most NHL teams.

And it's funny that people say we got goaltending "out of this world". Reality is that Sens fans are just not used to it. Many teams are used to get superb goaltending (Habs, Rangers, Bruins, etc)