Where are we in the rebuild?

[SCD]

What I'm reminded of is when you get your first real job, and you've got that first timesheet or whatever that you're submitting. You do the math for your hours and you're so excited for how much you're going to earn. And then you get the check and you just earned like 70% of what you expected.

I think we're still in the pre-check phase. We're excited for all the prospects in the system and all the ones we're going to draft. But in the end, the development process is going to filter out a bunch of those guys. We can't tell how long the rebuild will take because we don't know who's going to make it. But not everybody will, so it's almost certainly going to take longer than we think.

And, as you point out, even the guys who make it often don't make it right away, or bloom right away.

I agree.

To me, the second phase of a rebuild is adding the UFAs. The kids are maturing. The team has figured out holes still need to be plugged. Cap space predictions should be possible for 3-5 yrs.

Buying the UFAs too early helps the team in the standings in the short run, but risks not having enough prospects to develop the core. And, you lose the opportunity to add elite prospects because the tank is over.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

When you look timeline wise, when do you see this team pushing for a playoff spot again?
Well, I guess I would say I hope next year.

So I think, I believe we’re on the right path and I’d like to look at ’19-20 as a time when we can be closer and more competitive to a playoff spot than we are this year.

So I’m looking at ’19-20, we’ve got cap space — no matter what we do, whether we re-sign some of our players or don’t, we’re going to have cap space going into the summer time.

So much for the whole elite talent thing. This will probably be our last top 5 pick, likely owing to the fact that Holland is at least considering buying his way closer to the playoffs this offseason.

But you've gotta love the milquetoast quality of the comment. It's not that he's saying they'll be good, he's only saying they'll be better than they are now. Bold words for the GM of a basement team.

Q&A: Red Wings GM Ken Holland discusses the state of the...

 

[jkutswings]

So much for the whole elite talent thing. This will probably be our last top 5 pick, likely owing to the fact that Holland is at least considering buying his way closer to the playoffs this offseason.

But you've gotta love the milquetoast quality of the comment. It's not that he's saying they'll be good, he's only saying they'll be better than they are now. Bold words for the GM of a basement team.

Q&A: Red Wings GM Ken Holland discusses the state of the...

Meh. I've liked the majority of his actions lately, so I'll continue to ignore his words for now. Hopefully it's a productive trade deadline, and we'll go from there.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

So much for the whole elite talent thing. This will probably be our last top 5 pick, likely owing to the fact that Holland is at least considering buying his way closer to the playoffs this offseason.

But you've gotta love the milquetoast quality of the comment. It's not that he's saying they'll be good, he's only saying they'll be better than they are now. Bold words for the GM of a basement team.

Q&A: Red Wings GM Ken Holland discusses the state of the...

Why is the fact that a GM wants his team to be competitive for the playoffs a shocking statement?
Ken Holland would never, even with a 0-82 roster, say "I plan on being terrible so we can get a good draft pick." And when he has a boatload of cap space free and there are potentially several very very good to elite pieces out there to be signed this offseason, why on Earth shouldn't he try to add to his roster?

Seriously, what from him would make you happy? Going by the username, I'm going to wager nothing short of his resignation, but there is nothing "OMFG WHAT A STOOGE" about his comments here.

 

[Pavels Dog]

So much for the whole elite talent thing. This will probably be our last top 5 pick, likely owing to the fact that Holland is at least considering buying his way closer to the playoffs this offseason.

But you've gotta love the milquetoast quality of the comment. It's not that he's saying they'll be good, he's only saying they'll be better than they are now. Bold words for the GM of a basement team.

Q&A: Red Wings GM Ken Holland discusses the state of the...

If every GM who said he wanted his team to be in the playoff mix actually ended up with teams in the playoff mix, no teams would ever finish bottom 5.

Wanting to be more competitive is the bare minimum of what a GM should be expected to strive for. Regardless, look at how many bottomfeeders have added big time in UFA and just ended up in the bottom anyway. Why should we think the Wings can just decide to become a mediocre team at any given moment, as if talent is abundantly available and no other bad teams are adding it?

 

[Frk It]

We could very well have a new GM in the near future so I wouldn’t get too worked up over what Holland says.

He will always say the same things at this point. The guy would rather compete than re-build. If it becomes clear we can’t compete he takes his dose of reality and acts accordingly. It would be great if he just said what we want him to, but as long as he keeps doing what he has at the trade deadline the last two years, then I don’t really care.

Keep drafting like 2018 (not 2017) and stockpiling picks, and we are fine.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Seriously, what from him would make you happy? Going by the username, I'm going to wager nothing short of his resignation, but there is nothing "OMFG WHAT A STOOGE" about his comments here.

I want him to say: we have a 5 year plan, which includes 2-3 years of drafting in the top 5, at which point we will pull back on the stick and start signing UFAs. I don't like the "eh, we'll see what happens!" quality of the rebuild we have. It's sloppy.

At the beginning of the year, we have no idea what is going to happen, which is at least a bit owing to the fact that Holland constantly talks about the playoffs and all the moves he wants to make to get the team competitive in the short term. It makes me think he's not serious about rebuilding. If he were, IMO, he would have a concrete plan. And to boot, his stated plans are in serious conflict with the reality of the team. This isn't the first year we've heard how good they're supposed to be, but yet they just aren't.

I really think that we're not drafting in the top 5 because he planned it or even thought it would happen, but because he seriously misjudged the talent level of the team... again. I know some of you think he's playing 5D chess and saying one thing to the fanbase while doing the exact opposite, but I think he actually believes what he's saying.

Edit: more stuff

I really think Toronto did it exactly the way it ought to be done. We have to separate their process from how lucky they got in landing Matthews. I loved how deliberate they were. They had these small, incremental goals for every year that led to a concrete longer-term plan. They knew full well that they didn't want to be good until they were ready to be. They did almost every little thing they could to eke more value out of their assets, including taking on contracts. And when the time came, it was over in a flash. That is how a professional organization does a rebuild.

This? This is sloppy. It's a process dominated by whim. It's YOLO-level, a team banking on rock star managerial prowess to hold everything together. But every rock star ages.

 

[Frk It]

I want him to say: we have a 5 year plan, which includes 2-3 years of drafting in the top 5, at which point we will pull back on the stick and start signing UFAs. I don't like the "eh, we'll see what happens!" quality of the rebuild we have. It's sloppy.

There is so much luck involved now to where you’re not going to get this. If Toronto had the current lottery structure and got Puljujarvi/Juolevi instead of Matthews, that rebuild would look totally different.

You can’t plan on getting a #1 or #2 pick anymore and therefore your turnaround time is very fluid. You have to let guys develop and see what you have in a lot cases. Maybe you could hope for something ambiguous like “we are going to try to pick as high as possible” for a few years, but I don’t know how the league would feel about that.

I think the change in the lottery changed the whole landscape of rebuilds (why I made a thread on that when it happened).

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

According to Holland's statement in the DetroitNews article, we're apparently almost done!

“But as we approach (20)19-20, and we have a summer before then, too (to potentially sign other free agents), and our young players progress and take another step forward, we’d like to be in position to make a run at the playoffs.”

Sure thing Kenny! Our blueline is just a tweak or two from not being a dumpster fire, right? Larkin has all the talent surrounding him that he needs. Just get in the playoffs and anything can happen!

 

[jkutswings]

Just get in the playoffs and anything can happen!

Absolutely! Detroit could lose in 4 games. Or in 5 games. Or MAYBE even in 6 games. And they could lose by 2 goals per game, or 3, or 4. And they could score in their own net once, or maybe two or three times.

See? Lots of possibilities!

 

[Pavels Dog]

I want him to say: we have a 5 year plan, which includes 2-3 years of drafting in the top 5, at which point we will pull back on the stick and start signing UFAs. I don't like the "eh, we'll see what happens!" quality of the rebuild we have. It's sloppy.

That would be ridiculous to say and no GM has ever done that.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

That would be ridiculous to say and no GM has ever done that.

The Leafs were fairly open about the fact that they had a year by year plan for the rebuild. I'm not saying they have to make every bit of it public, but I think it's pretty clear that the Wings aren't sticking to any rebuild plan.

 

[sureWhyNot]

Our “plans” number 1 priority should be to get Holland out and Yzerman in.

Number 2 should be fire Blashill and hand over the reigns to Bylsma until someone more competent becomes available.

 

[Bench]

The Leafs were fairly open about the fact that they had a year by year plan for the rebuild. I'm not saying they have to make every bit of it public, but I think it's pretty clear that the Wings aren't sticking to any rebuild plan.

That's just it. I like transparency. The Rangers did something similar in a letter to their ticket holders.

Many argue that the words don't matter, only actions do, but I far prefer the aforementioned clarity and known goals while navigating a rebuild. As long as Holland continues to straddle the line and give his nothing answers, I'll continue to have less trust in his leadership regarding this latest challenge.

I want someone who can step up and say, "We are bad now, we are loading up on assets and selling veteran pieces, and we're aiming to be back at it in a few years. Please mind the construction zone for awhile, I know it might look messy until it's done."

 

[obey86]

The Leafs were fairly open about the fact that they had a year by year plan for the rebuild. I'm not saying they have to make every bit of it public, but I think it's pretty clear that the Wings aren't sticking to any rebuild plan.

The magical reason the Leafs plan worked this time compared to previous years is because this time they drafted Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander with their #1, #4, and #8 picks instead of drafting Morgan Reilly (#5), Nazem Kadri (#7), and Luke Schenn (#5) caliber players with those picks. Everything else trying to explain away how smart they were is just static.

Using the "Toronto model", if Zadina is a Marner caliber player, someone like Jack Hughes is a Matthews caliber player, and Larkin stays at his current level (none of these three things are guaranteed, but neither are they highly unlikely) the Red Wings rebuild will likely be successful whether they gave a few stupid contracts out to players like Abdelkader and Helm or not. Likewise, if Zadina is a Luke Schenn caliber player, someone like Jack Hughes tops out as a Nazem Kadri, then the Red Wings rebuild will likely NOT be successful even if they did everything else correctly and traded Nyqvist and Howard for 1st round picks, and didn't give bad contracts to players like Abdelkader or Nielsen.

 

[Pavels Dog]

The Leafs were fairly open about the fact that they had a year by year plan for the rebuild. I'm not saying they have to make every bit of it public, but I think it's pretty clear that the Wings aren't sticking to any rebuild plan.

They never talked about a plan of not making the playoffs for 5 years though. And even if they had, they are one of few sports franchises that fill their arena regardless of what they do and say.
I think it's pretty clear the Wings HAVE a rebuild plan. You can't plan for things like draft lottery or draft picks that bust or completely exceed expectations, so you can never make a perfect plan. But it's been like 5 years since Holland last traded futures for draft help. I don't believe any other team has had as many draft picks as us the last 3-4 drafts combined. Our draft position is getting higher year by year too and the team is getting younger and younger while doing 99% of the rebuilding through the draft. What more is required from a "rebuild plan"? This is how rebuilding is done when it's done right.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I don't believe any other team has had as many draft picks as us the last 3-4 drafts combined.

As an aside, is anybody else not very impressed by this stat? I've heard it a number of times, so I'm not trying to pick on Mr. Dog here. But, I mean, it seems to be playing on the idea that all picks are equally good. Who cares who had the most picks beyond the reliable drafting rounds? Tell me who had the most 1sts and 2nds and I'll tell you who is rebuilding the right way.

Which is not to say that isn't the Wings; I have no idea. I'm just saying the whole "we have the most picks!" thing is a very weasely statement. If you aren't careful with your interpretation, it could mislead you.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

What more is required from a "rebuild plan"? This is how rebuilding is done when it's done right.

Elite talent. Honestly, if you come away from your rebuild without at least one absolute gamebreaking player, your rebuild didn't work out. That's why hanging out from 6-15 is such a killer; you're either stuck in mediocrity for an extended period or you'll have to rebuild again soon. Maybe both.

You can get lucky, though, as Calgary did with Gaudreau. But banking on finding a gamebreaker in the late rounds is a fool's errand.

And, no, I don't think Larkin fits that description. I don't think Zadina does, either. Hughes and Kakko would.

 

[SCD]

Elite talent. Honestly, if you come away from your rebuild without at least one absolute gamebreaking player, your rebuild didn't work out. That's why hanging out from 6-15 is such a killer; you're either stuck in mediocrity for an extended period or you'll have to rebuild again soon. Maybe both.

That is basically Arizona's story.

 

[Ezekial]

Looks like it's working for Vancouver so far. Man they have gotten some absolute gems

So right about Arizona, though, Strome was their only top 5 pick drafted between Turris (2007) and Hayton.
3 is their highest pick ever (Turris, Strome), they've never picked 4, and they've picked 5 two times (Wheeler, Hayton). Yikes

 

[Frk It]

As an aside, is anybody else not very impressed by this stat? I've heard it a number of times, so I'm not trying to pick on Mr. Dog here. But, I mean, it seems to be playing on the idea that all picks are equally good. Who cares who had the most picks beyond the reliable drafting rounds? Tell me who had the most 1sts and 2nds and I'll tell you who is rebuilding the right way.

I would be if we had more than 1 draft like this last one under our belt.

2017 we had 7 picks in the top 100 and I’m not very optimistic we did much with it.

 

[jkutswings]

I would be if we had more than 1 draft like this last one under our belt.

2017 we had 7 picks in the top 100 and I’m not very optimistic we did much with it.

Opportunity is only as good as the execution that follows it.

 

[YpsiWings]

It appears that I am more fond of the Wings future than most, seems like most fans think we are just starting to rebuild. Here are a few reasons Detroit is closer than you think:

• Larkin is not done developing
• Cholowski is a #1
• Zadina and Veleno become 1st liners
• Sign a high profile UFA, hopefully a D
• Get lucky on a late round pick
• Luck in the draft lottery

I believe a lot of those hypotheticals, no way Detroit is still rebuilding in 3-5 years. This is a young mans game, overripe is extinct.

 

[Winger98]

As an aside, is anybody else not very impressed by this stat? I've heard it a number of times, so I'm not trying to pick on Mr. Dog here. But, I mean, it seems to be playing on the idea that all picks are equally good. Who cares who had the most picks beyond the reliable drafting rounds? Tell me who had the most 1sts and 2nds and I'll tell you who is rebuilding the right way.

Which is not to say that isn't the Wings; I have no idea. I'm just saying the whole "we have the most picks!" thing is a very weasely statement. If you aren't careful with your interpretation, it could mislead you.

I don't disagree on the premise that you have to do something with the picks to make them worth something, but it does show the organization has been focusing on trying to pump more talent into the system. The Wings might not do what they need to do with those picks, but the focus seems to be in the right place the past couple of years.