Where are we in the rebuild?

[The Zermanator]

I think this upcoming offseason is huge. I honestly believe with the right moves we could be 90%+ through the rebuild.

There's two key things that need to happen in my mind:

1. We draft another high end centre. That shouldn't be too hard because there are several available at the top of the draft. Both the top two prospects in Hughes/Kakko seem to have the potential to be pivots. But can't bank on lottery luck. Fortunately there are several others just below them in Dach/Cozens and Turcotte/Suzuki tiers.

2. We sign Erik Karlsson. I can't imagine he doesn't at least test out free agency at this point since he's so close. We have to be in the race and I think we have a solid shot. We have tons of cap space opening up in the next few years and have a lot of young talent in the org. He would get paid and have a chance to be a leader on a young team that is just starting it's rise. We would potentially be able to use Lidstrom/Zetterberg/Alfredsson/Franzen etc to help sell him on the org and lure him here.

With those two things accomplished here is the core we are left with going forward:

Bertuzzi-Larkin-Mantha
AA-2019 1st-Zadina
Rasmussen-Veleno-?
?-?-?

Cholowski-Karlsson
McIsaac-Hronek
Lindstrom-?

3rd/4th line and 3rd pair spots are easy to fill, those players are readily available. We have guys like DK, Abby, Helm, etc to fill them for the next few years until those bad contracts expire right as the young guys start to get more expensive.

I think this team could be back to contending within 2-3 years. Thoughts?

EDIT: Should Karlsson fall through, there is also Trouba coming up the following offseason. Would prefer Karlsson but he would be a great option too and wouldn't really alter this projection since we're not gonna be great next year anyway, with or without Karlsson.

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[Heaton]

This offseason can change a lot, if we get a big UFA and a top pick in the draft we could be competing for a playoff spot next year. More likely, we're at least 3 years away.

 

[Ricelund]

The Athletic just posted a great piece on this topic.

 

[Hammettf2b]

The Athletic just posted a great piece on this topic.

Dont have a sub. What do they say in short?

 

[ricky0034]

Karlsson would definitely change things quite a bit

as it is now a long ways off,still need another piece or two of higher end talent with the forwards but other than that I think that's pretty good as far as supporting pieces and such goes

the defense is a whole different story,the Wings basically need an entire defense group,I think they mismanage Hronek into a long term 3rd pairing guy,Cholowski should be a decent second pairing guy with an outside chance at being a low end 1st pairing guy,Green is decent but he's 33

Goalies not a lot there(I do like Larsson quite a bit but lets be honest he's so far off still that it's a longshot he makes it with the way the position is) but i'm not too worried about that since it's a pretty easy position to fill either by signing guys or worst case trading for some guy for not all that high a price

honestly right now with the sheer extent of the defensive holes and the Forwards approaching being okay i'm expecting the Wings to kinda amble their way into something of a botched rebuild,being a bubble team in another few years and just kinda staying there for a decade or so without really becoming anything noteworthy

 

[Claypool]

Trading Nyquist, Jensen and Howard: The rebuild is going great

Re-signing Nyquist, Jensen and Howard: They're wasting everyone's time

 

[Ricelund]

Dont have a sub. What do they say in short?

It's a very in-depth piece. They believe the '22 and '23 seasons will be when Detroit is a serious contender again.

 

[Perfect Human]

Bertuzzi-Larkin-Mantha
AA-2019 1st-Zadina
Rasmussen-Veleno-?
?-?-?

Cholowski-Karlsson
McIsaac-Hronek
Lindstrom-?

3rd/4th line and 3rd pair spots are easy to fill, those players are readily available. We have guys like DK, Abby, Helm, etc to fill them for the next few years until those bad contracts expire right as the young guys start to get more expensive.

Definitely important to have a quality Third/Fourth line. I think Bert is a future second line player and Mantha is not a bonafide #1 RW either. Both seem to be more likely than not second liners.

I think Ehn is part of our third/fourth line future, and while he is also a center, DlR may be as well. Both are 23 or under and playing good roles defensively and play well together. I dont think Ehn or DlR get too expensive in the long run. Neither will be payed what Helm was this past contract. Helm has flirted with 20 goals and his family is close with holland's.

I think the worry at this point should be more on future goaltending than on the lines. This deadline and the 2019 draft will shine a lot of light on the future lineups, but the goaltender situation is more worrisome. Bernier is not a #1. Howard has maybe 1.5-2 years left in him and the prospect pool doesn't have more than one potential starter. If you look at some of the better teams, they have depth at every position. Until the wings have ~3 goalies who can play, we are still 2-3 years minimum away.

 

[jkutswings]

Larkin and a few of the other kids are good pieces, but ideally they still need a 1C and a 1A defenseman.

The next six months would be perfect if they could:
* Sell multiple players at the TDL
* Draft a 1C via top 5 pick
* Parlay picks/players into the #15-20 overall for a potential top pair defenseman
* Somehow land Karlsson***


*** Trouba would be a much lower yet acceptable consolation prize, assuming they use a 1st rounder in either 2019 or 2020 on a defenseman.

 

[AttilaTheFun]

Dont have a sub. What do they say in short?

It's a long and interesting article. Easily worth the monthly subscription on its own if you can afford it.

Max used some fancy model to project the performance of current players into '21-'22 and compared that projected line-up to the average current performance of players on the top 8 teams in the league.

Basically, he wrote that some young players will need to out-perform expectations and the team would need to add three top-line pieces (an example he gave was Stone) for the team to be a contender at that time. Possible but very uncertain.

If that doesn't happen, I think the team will have to trade away players like AA and Mantha to support a later window built around the more recent draft picks (and hopefully with Larkin as a veteran presence).

 

[Lovonov]

I'm not sure if we can refer The Athletic stuff here, but I'm going to anyway.

Written by Max bultman (amazing DET hockey writer), I really like where we are. We are in a position to snag a 2nd line center-man or a 1st/2nd line defender with our 2019 1st round pick. Sign a free-agent or have a player currently in the system vastly outperform, and boom. Back to playoffs baby.

 

[izlez]

Trading Nyquist, Jensen and Howard: The rebuild is going great

Re-signing Nyquist, Jensen and Howard: They're wasting everyone's time

Teardown ≠ Rebuild


On another note, I'm really enjoying this seemingly new trend of users being completely wrong about prospects being framed as "mismanagement of prospects".
Sure, Chief. You were right alllll along. That guy was a future superstar if not for management forcing him into a KHL career

 

[TheRatPoisoner]

Teardown ≠ Rebuild

Common now, trading those guys is hardly a teardown.

 

[izlez]

Common now, trading those guys is hardly a teardown.

ok.

Whateverthehellyouwanttocallthat ≠ Rebuild

 

[ricky0034]

ok.

Whateverthehellyouwanttocallthat ≠ Rebuild

all of them are literally UFAs this year

 

[izlez]

all of them are literally UFAs this year

Ok?

How does losing our 2nd leading scorer and our only decent goalie mean "the rebuild is going great"?

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Tough to say. It all depends on how the next two drafts pan out. Wings could be finishing the rebuild within 2-3 years or they could be floundering for another 5+ years if they don't find elite talent in the draft.

 

[ricky0034]

Ok?

How does losing our 2nd leading scorer and our only decent goalie mean "the rebuild is going great"?

they're UFAs and the team sucks,keeping them is losing potential value for no reason

 

[Claypool]

Ok?

How does losing our 2nd leading scorer and our only decent goalie mean "the rebuild is going great"?

Nyquist has shown throughout his career in Detroit he's not worth investing in. He's having his best season since he came into the league five years ago, just so happens it's a contract year, too. Over the next two to three years the Red Wings will have better, younger (and cheaper) talent in the system that can easily replace Nyquist's production long-term.

 

[izlez]

they're UFAs and the team sucks,keeping them is losing potential value for no reason

Nyquist has shown throughout his career in Detroit he's not worth investing in. He's having his best season since he came into the league five years ago, just so happens it's a contract year, too. Over the next two to three years the Red Wings will have better, younger (and cheaper) talent in the system that can easily replace Nyquist's production long-term.

Future draft picks don't play hockey.

How many players on the team/in the system are better at hockey than Nyquist and Howard?

Tearing down is easy.
Teardown ≠ Rebuild

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

We are still early in the rebuild to be sure. We need top pairing defensemen, top line forwards, and a goalie. On top of all that, these guys will all need time to develop. It’s going to take time, and even then, what if guys don’t develop as we want them to? Or we make questionable picks? Ideally we should be competitive in 3-5 years, but there are a lot of variables here.

 

[jkutswings]

Future draft picks don't play hockey.

How many players on the team/in the system are better at hockey than Nyquist and Howard?

Tearing down is easy.
Teardown ≠ Rebuild

Correct. But neither Nyquist nor Howard will be good enough for long enough to still be making a worthwhile impact by the time the roster is rebuilt. So good asset management would be to get something for them now, then reconsider whether to bring them back this summer.

There's nothing wrong with being a lousy hockey team for a few years while acquiring the next core. Thus far, Larkin appears to be a firm "yes" as being part of that core, and there are a few "maybes" as well. So keep hoarding picks for another year or two while the "maybes" develop and you try to land another "yes" or two, and by then - with smart decisions and some luck - it'll be time to start moving from the "unloading" end of the spectrum to the "loading up" end.

 

[Chris 84]

too early to tell. we don't know where we are. some things are looking promising, but much will hinge on the future development of the likes of zadina, rasmussen, veleno, svechnnikov, hronek and cholowski. we simply don't know exactly how they are going to pan out. if all of them reach their ceiling, then the rebuild is pretty much complete and in a couple of years we'll be a solid playoff team. if none of them do, we're screwed.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

too early to tell. we don't know where we are. some things are looking promising, but much will hinge on the future development of the likes of zadina, rasmussen, veleno, svechnnikov, hronek and cholowski. we simply don't know exactly how they are going to pan out. if all of them reach their ceiling, then the rebuild is pretty much complete and in a couple of years we'll be a solid playoff team. if none of them do, we're screwed.

I am not sure about that. If they all reach their ceilings we are still squarely in a rebuilt. We need elite talent, not very good talent.

 

[RedWingsfan55]

It's hard to say. Were kind of in the middle but with luck could be sped up quickly or with holland being holland slowed down.

If things sort of continue with how they are I'd agree with the article serious contenders by 21 or 22.

If by the grace of god we trade Howard, nyquist and Jensen. Then we get the number 1 pick(hughes), sign a starter goalie(or re sign howard) and sign Karlsson. Could make the playoffs in 19 and serious contenders in 20.

If holland re signs Howard, Jensen and nyquist to stupid potentially cap crippling contracts, like he is well known for. With the possibility of repeating these actions for even more guys like kronwall, daley, green and vanek when all their contracts are up. Then we will continue to lose A LOT but we will accrue so damn good picks and players via the draft. But may lose some good ones via free agency/ expansion draft. But this is all unlikely and would be the "doom and gloom" outlook.