Where are we in the rebuild?

[Pavels Dog]

He's been saying this stuff every year now.

Red Wings' Ken Holland: Long-term rebuild not the way to go


Ken Holland on Wings’ ‘old’ defense, free agency, more


Ken Holland discusses Red Wings’ moves on Day 1 of free agency




As though it was possible? Talk about denial.

I hope I win the lottery tomorrow.


See how CONFIDENT I am that I will win the lottery?

None of what you posted indicated a confidence that the team would make the playoffs this year, just like the above interview had zero indication that he was confident about a playoff spot next season.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I hope I win the lottery tomorrow.


See how CONFIDENT I am that I will win the lottery?

None of what you posted indicated a confidence that the team would make the playoffs this year, just like the above interview had zero indication that he was confident about a playoff spot next season.

If you said "I hope I win the lottery tomorrow" to the media, you would either be a complete lunatic by broadcasting to the world things that are completely improbable of happening (and I'm not completely against this idea for Holland), or you would suggest to the world that you have some reasonable method of achieving this goal. Like, for example, I think a lot of people would wonder if you have some very elaborate way of cheating.

When you go public with speculation as a public figure, the general assumption is that you're making sense. And when you're not making sense, you lose your credibility.

Honestly, you're just playing games now. I quoted him directly. Admit you were wrong.

 

[Pavels Dog]

If you said "I hope I win the lottery tomorrow" to the media, you would either be a complete lunatic by broadcasting to the world things that are completely improbable of happening (and I'm not completely against this idea for Holland), or you would suggest to the world that you have some reasonable method of achieving this goal. Like, for example, I think a lot of people would wonder if you have some very elaborate way of cheating.

When you go public with speculation as a public figure, the general assumption is that you're making sense. And when you're not making sense, you lose your credibility.

We are in a rebuild. We are dealing with things like draft lottery (massive, massive implications from winning vs. losing spots in the draft) and the unpredictable development of 18-21 year olds. It's impossible to know exactly when we will improve. But a fairly reasonable expectation is that more talent added and development from young players could lead to improvement.

 

[ShelbyZ]

Not saying that I completely advocate for it, but I can see where Holland/the FO/whoever might shift to a more "neutral" approach going into next season that doesn't really derail a rebuild.

-This team does seem better than its record indicates, especially when their D is at or near full strength
-As OP mentioned, keeping the team somewhat intact and adding Karlsson (or maybe even Duchene/Stone/Panarin) probably puts them in the playoffs, which might be worth the risk to them
-They still have 10 draft picks (11 if by some miracle Robbie Russo plays 30 games for the Coyotes...) for this June (which includes their first that will likely be high and they have 2 2nd rounders, one of which will likely be in the mid 30OA range)
-If they miss out on a big free agent, they could always add a couple vet pieces on 1 or 2 year deals that would be easily moveable at the deadline
-If they are still far away from the playoffs next season, they can easily slip back into draft pick stockpiling mode as Green, Daley and Ericsson are all expiring and can be sent out as rentals, Helms full NTC can be voided after this season if they miss the playoffs, and any of the hypothetical short term vets they add can be put on the market as well

That would mean that free agency needs to target a top guy (IE Karlsson/Duchene/Stone/Panarin/etc.) or some short term guys that could be turned into free assets in the next couple deadlines... NO in between... So (ala Stamkos/Nielsen) if they miss out on Karlsson on D, no panic long term over payment to an Edler or Myers. And also still leave space open on the roster for Svechnikov and Hronek to be on the NHL roster, and for guys like Zadina/etc. to compete for a spot.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Not saying that I completely advocate for it, but I can see where Holland/the FO/whoever might shift to a more "neutral" approach going into next season that doesn't really derail a rebuild.

-This team does seem better than its record indicates, especially when their D is at or near full strength
-As OP mentioned, keeping the team somewhat intact and adding Karlsson (or maybe even Duchene/Stone/Panarin) probably puts them in the playoffs, which might be worth the risk to them
-They still have 10 draft picks (11 if by some miracle Robbie Russo plays 30 games for the Coyotes...) for this June (which includes their first that will likely be high and they have 2 2nd rounders, one of which will likely be in the mid 30OA range)
-If they miss out on a big free agent, they could always add a couple vet pieces on 1 or 2 year deals that would be easily moveable at the deadline
-If they are still far away from the playoffs next season, they can easily slip back into draft pick stockpiling mode as Green, Daley and Ericsson are all expiring and can be sent out as rentals, Helms full NTC can be voided after this season if they miss the playoffs, and any of the hypothetical short term vets they add can be put on the market as well

That would mean that free agency needs to target a top guy (IE Karlsson/Duchene/Stone/Panarin/etc.) or some short term guys that could be turned into free assets in the next couple deadlines... NO in between... So (ala Stamkos/Nielsen) if they miss out on Karlsson on D, no panic long term over payment to an Edler or Myers. And also still leave space open on the roster for Svechnikov and Hronek to be on the NHL roster, and for guys like Zadina/etc. to compete for a spot.

The biggest concern with continuing down the "half assing it" path is that the teams above us continue to get better by adding elite talent. We'd basically be Ottawa with Karlsson if we can sign Karlsson to a UFA deal. He'd be our one elite player on the team. Toronto is loaded with elite talent, Buffalo's elite talent is not quite hitting it's stride but will over the next 1-3 years, Tampa is still fully in their window, etc.

So there needs to be a commitment to stockpiling elite talent. When you acquire that talent via free agency however, it totally throws off your salary cap and this is a franchise that has made incredibly poor use of salary cap and LTIR space. Toronto managed this very well by adding a key piece in Tavares after they had already drafted a few young, elite players on cheap contracts. I'm totally on board with acquiring Karlsson via free agency as the odds of us drafting an elite defenseman are incedibly long. It's a well established organizational shortcoming.

So I still think it's critically important we not take the shortcut route yet again and instead build a team full of elite young talent on cheap contracts. I understand very few fans and none of the front office seem to understand how important this is, but that doesn't mean it isn't correct.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Couple more good drafts in 2019 and 2020 would go along ways, In building this team to where they need to be. 2020 is looking like a really good draft. Hopefully we get top 3 this year.

 

[ShelbyZ]

The biggest concern with continuing down the "half assing it" path is that the teams above us continue to get better by adding elite talent. We'd basically be Ottawa with Karlsson if we can sign Karlsson to a UFA deal. He'd be our one elite player on the team. Toronto is loaded with elite talent, Buffalo's elite talent is not quite hitting it's stride but will over the next 1-3 years, Tampa is still fully in their window, etc.

While that's certainly true, the salary cap basically guarantees that teams at the top will inevitably fall off. Unless Brisebois has some hidden wizardry to get out of some of the NTC/NMC's that Yzerman threw around like candy or has a Braden Point like surprise on D in his back pocket, the Lightnings window is going to start closing as early as this summer. They'll need to use most of their cap space to extend Point and then they still have to sign/extend 3/4 dmen and just as many forwards. Then the next summer they have to extend Vasilevsky and Sergachev. The Blue Jackets are likely to lose Panarin and Bobrovsky, the Penguins have been up and down all season, the Bruins have an aging core and the Islanders and Canadiens are potentially overachieving with one of them basically boat anchored by the performance of the leagues current highest paid goalie for the next decade...

 

[obey86]

The biggest concern with continuing down the "half assing it" path is that the teams above us continue to get better by adding elite talent. We'd basically be Ottawa with Karlsson if we can sign Karlsson to a UFA deal. He'd be our one elite player on the team. Toronto is loaded with elite talent, Buffalo's elite talent is not quite hitting it's stride but will over the next 1-3 years, Tampa is still fully in their window, etc.

So there needs to be a commitment to stockpiling elite talent. When you acquire that talent via free agency however, it totally throws off your salary cap and this is a franchise that has made incredibly poor use of salary cap and LTIR space. Toronto managed this very well by adding a key piece in Tavares after they had already drafted a few young, elite players on cheap contracts. I'm totally on board with acquiring Karlsson via free agency as the odds of us drafting an elite defenseman are incedibly long. It's a well established organizational shortcoming.

So I still think it's critically important we not take the shortcut route yet again and instead build a team full of elite young talent on cheap contracts. I understand very few fans and none of the front office seem to understand how important this is, but that doesn't mean it isn't correct.

Signing an elite defenseman in free agency (if you can do so) isn't "taking a shortcut." It's acquiring an elite player when the opportunity is available that will make your team better. Toronto has 3 players I would consider "elite"....Marner, Tavares, and Matthews. Players like Nylander, Reilly, and Kadri are not elite but are Mantha tier players IMO.

If the Wings were to hypothetically sign Karlsson and draft a player top 3, they would have 1 elite player, 1 layer expected to become elite (their top 3 pick), and then a couple wild cards with tons of potential in Larkin and Zadina. Larkin has shown he can basically be a PPG player on a crap team, with better line mates the possibilities are endless.

Obviously Zadina and the Wings top 3 pick this year can't be busts, but at some point the team is going to have to take some risks like signing a big FA (ala Karlsson), etc while their best players are on entry level contracts but before you know the full extent of their abilities. I find the following hypothetical Red Wings lineup very comparable talent wise to the current Leafs lineup (assuming that Zadina and top 3 pick live up to their draft status), I would argue the Red Wings lineup actually has a better defense than the Leafs do (especially after Gardiner likely walks this coming offseason), but a worse forward group:

Zadina - Larkin - Bertuzzi
FA signing?? - Dach/Cozens/Hughes - Mantha
Nielsen -Veleno - AA

Karlsson - Cholowski
Dekeyser - Green
Ericsson - Hronek

 

[Run the Jewels]

Signing an elite defenseman in free agency (if you can do so) isn't "taking a shortcut." It's acquiring an elite player when the opportunity is available that will make your team better. Toronto has 3 players I would consider "elite"....Marner, Tavares, and Matthews. Players like Nylander, Reilly, and Kadri are not elite but are Mantha tier players IMO.

If the Wings were to hypothetically sign Karlsson and draft a player top 3, they would have 1 elite player, 1 layer expected to become elite (their top 3 pick), and then a couple wild cards with tons of potential in Larkin and Zadina. Larkin has shown he can basically be a PPG player on a crap team, with better line mates the possibilities are endless.

Obviously Zadina and the Wings top 3 pick this year can't be busts, but at some point the team is going to have to take some risks like signing a big FA (ala Karlsson), etc while their best players are on entry level contracts but before you know the full extent of their abilities. I find the following hypothetical Red Wings lineup very comparable talent wise to the current Leafs lineup (assuming that Zadina and top 3 pick live up to their draft status), I would argue the Red Wings lineup actually has a better defense than the Leafs do (especially after Gardiner likely walks this coming offseason), but a worse forward group:

Zadina - Larkin - Bertuzzi
FA signing?? - Dach/Cozens/Hughes - Mantha
Nielsen -Veleno - AA

Karlsson - Cholowski
Dekeyser - Green
Ericsson - Hronek

Yeah I said I would sign Karlsson regardless since the organization clearly cannot draft or develop top pairing d-men. That would basically put us on par with Ottawa when he was there last season. Lots of "ifs and buts" which are what we've been saying for 10+ years with regard to the draft.

 

[obey86]

Yeah I said I would sign Karlsson regardless since the organization clearly cannot draft or develop top pairing d-men. That would basically put us on par with Ottawa when he was there last season. Lots of "ifs and buts" which are what we've been saying for 10+ years with regard to the draft.

always lots of ifs and buts though. at some point you have to jump in headfirst and take a risk.

I don't think signing Karlsson puts the Red Wings on par with what the Senators had last year. The Senators did not have an excellent, potentially top 15, ~ppg center (Larkin), nor did they have an additional center with elite potential (top 3 pick). Not to mention, that team was in total disarray last season with internal fighting, etc.

 

[odin1981]

If you equate the rebuild to a 400 meter dash in track and field the DRW are around 1/4 of the way into it.

 

[SCD]

If you equate the rebuild to a 400 meter dash in track and field the DRW are around 1/4 of the way into it.

I thought I just heard the starters pistol?

 

[SuperScript29]

Honestly, looking at our youth and prospect pool I must say, I'm rather disappointed. Outside of Larkin, no one has really taken that next step. Both AA and Mantha seem quite streaky, one day they play like stars and other days they play like bums. Svechnikov is looking more like a bust as time goes by. The judge is still out on the likes of Rasmussen and Zadina, but they're nothing to write home about. Cholowski and Hronek are the best we have back there, and they're likely top-4 guys. No goalie for the future. I like Bertuzzi, but he's not top-line material. What else? Yea, we really need another star on this team, I really hope we get a top-3 pick this draft.

 

[odin1981]

I thought I just heard the starters pistol?

3rd year of rebuild, 2 prior years of accumulating extra draft picks. One of two top 6 centers found. Potentially 2 of top 4 d found definitely 1 (Cholo).

Lacking a top line wing. And to this point a worthy top pairing on d. Another top 6 center which should be addressed at the draft.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

We are at step 3 of a 10 step process

 

[Shaman464]

3rd year of rebuild, 2 prior years of accumulating extra draft picks. One of two top 6 centers found. Potentially 2 of top 4 d found definitely 1 (Cholo).

Lacking a top line wing. And to this point a worthy top pairing on d. Another top 6 center which should be addressed at the draft.

So Detroit needs potentially 3 top 4 defenders, 1 top 6 center, preferably a #1 center, and a top line winger? That sounds like the starter pistol to me, because a lot of the teams at the bottom still have more figured out than that.

 

[iDangleDangle]

Signing an elite defenseman in free agency (if you can do so) isn't "taking a shortcut." It's acquiring an elite player when the opportunity is available that will make your team better. Toronto has 3 players I would consider "elite"....Marner, Tavares, and Matthews. Players like Nylander, Reilly, and Kadri are not elite but are Mantha tier players IMO.

If the Wings were to hypothetically sign Karlsson and draft a player top 3, they would have 1 elite player, 1 layer expected to become elite (their top 3 pick), and then a couple wild cards with tons of potential in Larkin and Zadina. Larkin has shown he can basically be a PPG player on a crap team, with better line mates the possibilities are endless.

Obviously Zadina and the Wings top 3 pick this year can't be busts, but at some point the team is going to have to take some risks like signing a big FA (ala Karlsson), etc while their best players are on entry level contracts but before you know the full extent of their abilities. I find the following hypothetical Red Wings lineup very comparable talent wise to the current Leafs lineup (assuming that Zadina and top 3 pick live up to their draft status), I would argue the Red Wings lineup actually has a better defense than the Leafs do (especially after Gardiner likely walks this coming offseason), but a worse forward group:

Zadina - Larkin - Bertuzzi
FA signing?? - Dach/Cozens/Hughes - Mantha
Nielsen -Veleno - AA

Karlsson - Cholowski
Dekeyser - Green
Ericsson - Hronek

Bit of a nitpick, but the bolded is true homerism. Mantha is nowhere NEAR Reilly, and not on the level of Nylander or Kadri. And Mantha isn't exactly a teen anymore either, so expecting a huge resurgence isn't all guaranteed.

 

[odin1981]

So Detroit needs potentially 3 top 4 defenders, 1 top 6 center, preferably a #1 center, and a top line winger? That sounds like the starter pistol to me, because a lot of the teams at the bottom still have more figured out than that.

It's too early to gauge Hronek. But he seems to have at least top 4 potential as a puck moving, and scoring d-man. So let's say for discussion speak we have 1.5 of the 4.

At worst with Larkin we appear to have a 2 way stud center so a 1b. We find a more offensively oriented 1a and center looks locked up pretty well for awhile with ehn looking to eventually take over for Glendening at the 4. Or maybe he grows into a 3c maybe.

We need a Strahlman (tb) like addition from fa to fill out the top 4. Biggest glaring hole is no definite #1 but hey maybe cholo matures and takes that spot.

 

[Shaman464]

It's too early to gauge Hronek. But he seems to have at least top 4 potential as a puck moving, and scoring d-man. So let's say for discussion speak we have 1.5 of the 4.

At worst with Larkin we appear to have a 2 way stud center so a 1b. We find a more offensively oriented 1a and center looks locked up pretty well for awhile with ehn looking to eventually take over for Glendening at the 4. Or maybe he grows into a 3c maybe.

We need a Strahlman (tb) like addition from fa to fill out the top 4. Biggest glaring hole is no definite #1 but hey maybe cholo matures and takes that spot.

Those are a lot of what-ifs and question marks. Cholo likely is an offensive d-man, which is good, but the team needs an all round defender to anchor their top pairing, one that doesn't look to currently be in the system. But, even if they have that player now, I believe my assessment that we are still early in the process holds because they will need a few season to be able to evaluate these players and know if they will fit in those roles, and to draft players that could potentially fill those roles, or be used to trade to fill other gaps.

 

[obey86]

Bit of a nitpick, but the bolded is true homerism. Mantha is nowhere NEAR Reilly, and not on the level of Nylander or Kadri. And Mantha isn't exactly a teen anymore either, so expecting a huge resurgence isn't all guaranteed.

Meh, those players I mentioned all are very good players, but ultimately are playing the passenger role to the elite players on their roster. Put them with the Detroit roster and "magically" they don't look as good.

Reilly isn't close to a 50 point defenseman in Detroit and Nylander can barely break 20 goals/60 points despite being stapled to the hip of one of the best players in the league in Auston Matthews. You think Nylander is putting up 60 points in Detroit playing on a line with Frans Nielsen and Darren Helm or something like that? lol. Put Mantha playing wing with Matthews or Tavares and "magically" he's a 60 point player.

 

[newfy]

Detroit is in the second year of the rebuild I would say. The season before Rasmussen was drafted was when they officially started to suck. The season after that was full rebuild and ended up getting Zadina in the draft. Right now theyre officially bottoming out and going to be picking in the top 3 or 4.

The wings are doing well for where they are in the rebuild because they drafted well the 2 or 3 years before they actually started rebuilding. Having Larkin, Cholowski, Hronek, Bertuzzi, and Mantha all being ~23 or younger, drafted 15th or later and contributing in the NHL/looking like top 6 forwards or top 4 D in the future is a really good start to a rebuild. Bottom out and add a few elite, top 3ish picks to that group and the wings are competitive again.

It looks bad now but the wings are in a good spot as long as they end up picking high this year. Lots of cap space clearing, solid young players in the NHL AND high picks coming in the next year or 2.

 

[Bench]

It's amazing how quickly the timeline could change depending on a few lucky (or unlucky) lottery balls.

 

[bellringer77]

like stated there are too many what ifs. Drafting could be a disaster or it could be a grand slam. We could fill some holes via trade or free agency down the road or not. These young guys drafted obviously do not hit their stride right away. I honestly think we have a lot longer to go then what some think.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

These young guys drafted obviously do not hit their stride right away. I honestly think we have a lot longer to go then what some think.

What I'm reminded of is when you get your first real job, and you've got that first timesheet or whatever that you're submitting. You do the math for your hours and you're so excited for how much you're going to earn. And then you get the check and you just earned like 70% of what you expected.

I think we're still in the pre-check phase. We're excited for all the prospects in the system and all the ones we're going to draft. But in the end, the development process is going to filter out a bunch of those guys. We can't tell how long the rebuild will take because we don't know who's going to make it. But not everybody will, so it's almost certainly going to take longer than we think.

And, as you point out, even the guys who make it often don't make it right away, or bloom right away.

 

[bellringer77]

What I'm reminded of is when you get your first real job, and you've got that first timesheet or whatever that you're submitting. You do the math for your hours and you're so excited for how much you're going to earn. And then you get the check and you just earned like 70% of what you expected.

I think we're still in the pre-check phase. We're excited for all the prospects in the system and all the ones we're going to draft. But in the end, the development process is going to filter out a bunch of those guys. We can't tell how long the rebuild will take because we don't know who's going to make it. But not everybody will, so it's almost certainly going to take longer than we think.

And, as you point out, even the guys who make it often don't make it right away, or bloom right away.

I like the analogy. There are just so many variables in the process to know exactly where we stand. I agree with you