HF Habs: When Does Our Postseason Fate Sort Itself Out? Rebuild Thread

[DAChampion]

No.
Best forward prospect since McDavid

For real?

Well shit.

 

[DAChampion]

That's not entirely true. He acquired Nick Suzuki, who has a #13OA pick. What's with this fetish with a 1st rounder if you can trade for a prospect with more track record and less risk?

Yes. A former first rounder who has progressed well for one or two years is worth more than a future first rounder of the sane rank.

The Habs are probably better off with Suzuki in the system than if they had Peyton Krebs.

 

[DAChampion]

If Bergevin traded all those players for decent value, sure, I agree. But I don't think he has that level of aggressiveness in his gearbox.

Bergevin lacked aggressiveness in the Subban and Sergachev trades, but he did better in the Danault and Suzuki acquisitions.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

The odds of the Habs reaching a Wild Card spot are better than winning the 1st OA. None of us want Bergevin to make a bunch of desperate moves for a long-shot, either for the playoffs or to become worse than Detroit. Rather than create a false sense of urgency that we NEED the playoffs or NEED Lafreniere, wouldn't it make more sense to pursue goals we could actually achieve? Getting another 1st-round pick would be a smart and realistic start, as would getting another top prospect. We'd need to trade Tatar or Petry, but even then the Habs aren't dropping lower than they did after their two horrific slumps.

False. At our present position, we have 6.5% lottery odds for 1st pick and most probability programs you can find give us less than 5% chance of making the playoffs.

The gap between the two will also increase in the next 15 games before TDL.

Trading away a major piece and partly hampering the team would also increase our odds.

Don't kid yourself, losing any single one of our major players will increase our odds at drafting Lafreniere, whether it'd be Tatar, Petry, Price, Weber, Danault, Gallagher and even Kovy.

You don't think we'll get lower because you presume those coming back from injury will be just fine. It's not guaranteed. Furthermore, we also started winning again in-between our two 8 game losing streaks, even going 4-1 like we just did. They could very well stack up another 8 game losing streak. Jamais deux sans trois.

People talk about the injuries as the cause of our slide. I rather see a team that wins when there's a fragile equilibrium, easily derailed by removing one important piece. A typical house of cards.

Also, people keep harping about the odds of getting Lafreniere, but don't realize that getting a top 3 pick also gets you near him in terms of value, meaning if we win the 2nd or 3rd pick, we're that much closer to making a strong offer for the 1st ov. And those odds are that much better compared to making the playoffs. 4 times higher as it stands, we're at 20% for a top 3 pick.

 

[Tyson]

Reset has not worked, Price and Weber are aging and want a chance to win.

It truly is time for a fire sale and true rebuild.

 

[Lshap]

False. At our present position, we have 6.5% lottery odds for 1st pick and most probability programs you can find give us less than 5% chance of making the playoffs.

The gap between the two will also increase in the next 15 games before TDL.

Trading away a major piece and partly hampering the team would also increase our odds.

Don't kid yourself, losing any single one of our major players will increase our odds at drafting Lafreniere, whether it'd be Tatar, Petry, Price, Weber, Danault, Gallagher and even Kovy.

You don't think we'll get lower because you presume those coming back from injury will be just fine. It's not guaranteed. Furthermore, we also started winning again in-between our two 8 game losing streaks, even going 4-1 like we just did. They could very well stack up another 8 game losing streak. Jamais deux sans trois.

This site has Habs' playoff odds at 15%. Even if they're a bit lower, we're still as far from Lafreniere as we are to round-1.

Could we drop to the very bottom if Bergevin sold off every player on your list? Sure. But that's not a strategy, that's blind destruction. It'll never happen.

Could it happen organically? As unlikely as making the playoffs. The amount of moves and luck required to get the 1st OA sounds like Bergevin's "Anything can happen" philosophy for the playoffs, except in the reverse direction.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

This site has Habs' playoff odds at 15%. Even if they're a bit lower, we're still as far from Lafreniere as we are to round-1.

Could we drop to the very bottom if Bergevin sold off every player on your list? Sure. But that's not a strategy, that's blind destruction. It'll never happen.

Could it happen organically? As unlikely as making the playoffs. The amount of moves and luck required to get the 1st OA sounds like Bergevin's "Anything can happen" philosophy for the playoffs, except in the reverse direction.

I'm not interested in continuing this conversation any further as you clearly quickly strolled my post and completely ignored the part where I wrote "losing any single one of our major players will increase our odds at drafting"

You can do better than putting words in mouth.

Also, 15% odds is ridiculous. That site is completely bogus.

We need a +15 (pts/gm) in 32 games
Last year we were +14 in 82 games.

Completely ridiculous.

 

[DAChampion]

The odds of the Habs winning a playoff round are probably 1% or less.The off the Habs drafting top-5 are much higher, and that's something that they have control over.

@Lshap unfortunately shifted the goalposts to nonsensical locations -- drafting first overall versus making the playoffs. But that's phoney. There is zero value to making the playoffs if the team is massacred in the first round like it was in 2013 or 2017.

 

[Lshap]

I'm not interested in continuing this conversation any further as you clearly quickly strolled my post and completely ignored the part where I wrote "losing any single one of our major players will increase our odds at drafting"

You can do better than putting words in mouth.

Also, 15% odds is ridiculous. That site is completely bogus.

We need a +15 (pts/gm) in 32 games
Last year we were +14 in 82 games.

Completely ridiculous.

I gave you a site. You dismissed it as "Bogus" and offered nothing in return. Well done.

You also ignored what I posted (repeatedly) that trading any single one of those players doesn't get us anywhere close to the bottom.

 

[Lshap]

The odds of the Habs winning a playoff round are probably 1% or less.

Based on what?

 

[CHfan1]

I gave you a site. You dismissed it as "Bogus" and offered nothing in return. Well done.

This site I find more accurate has them at 4.8%.

Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[DAChampion]

Based on what?

@Ozymandias gave the odds of the Habs making the playoffs at 5%. That doesn't account for the fact that some of the other teams are going to get better. Abd after that, the Habs would not be able to beat Pittsburgh, Washington, or Boston.

 

[Lshap]

@Ozymandias gave the odds of the Habs making the playoffs at 5%. That doesn't account for the fact that some of the other teams are going to get better. Abd after that, the Habs would not be able to beat Pittsburgh, Washington, or Boston.

Nothing wrong with offering our personal feelings about the odds (you estimate 1%, Ozy 5%, I would've ballparked it around 5-6%), but how do our guesses change the main point? Making the playoffs and getting the 1st OA are both wild long shots. My opinion is we should forget those false goals and focus on more realistic & productive ones. Bergevin obviously isn't selling off the whole team, but he can realistically trade Tatar, Kovalchuk, maybe one or two secondary players. That could get us an extra 1st round pick and possibly one or two 2nds. That's a good start. Expecting more is a stretch, but if we're being optimistic, he could swap our two 1sts for a higher 1st. I think three 1sts is out of his league, but I'd love him to surprise me.

Arguments over minute differences between the odds of playoffs vs. the #1 OA pick are pointless. Neither will happen.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I gave you a site. You dismissed it as "Bogus" and offered nothing in return. Well done.

You also ignored what I posted (repeatedly) that trading any single one of those players doesn't get us anywhere close to the bottom.

Nothing in return?

I offered you why it's bogus.

You can easily go look at hockey reference for yourself. 4,8%

Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com

The fact you can't recognize 15% is bogus, speaks volume.

 

[Lshap]

This site I find more accurate has them at 4.8%.

Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com

Thanks!

 

[Lshap]

Nothing in return?

I offered you why it's bogus.

You can easily go look at hockey reference for yourself. 4,8%

The fact you can't recognize 15% is bogus speaks volume.

You've missed the entire point. See above.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Nothing wrong with offering our personal feelings about the odds (you estimate 1%, Ozy 5%, I would've ballparked it around 5-6%), but how do our guesses change the main point? Making the playoffs and getting the 1st OA are both wild long shots. My opinion is we should forget those false goals and focus on more realistic & productive ones. Bergevin obviously isn't selling off the whole team, but he can realistically trade Tatar, Kovalchuk, maybe one or two secondary players. That could get us an extra 1st round pick and possibly one or two 2nds. That's a good start. Expecting more is a stretch, but if we're being optimistic, he could swap our two 1sts for a higher 1st. I think three 1sts is out of his league, but I'd love him to surprise me.

Arguments over minute differences between the odds of playoffs vs. the #1 OA pick are pointless. Neither will happen.

That's false, because you fail to recognize that a top 3 lottery win also get's you closer to trading for him. Our odds are at 20% for a top 3, let alone the fact that a top 3 this year probably nets us an elite forward, no matter if it's Laffy.

 

[Lshap]

That's false, because you fail to recognize that a top 3 lottery win also get's you closer to trading for him. Our odds are at 20% for a top 3, let alone the fact that a top 3 this year probably nets us an elite forward, no matter if it's Laffy.

That wasn't what I was talking about.

 

[Lshap]

The odds of the Habs winning a playoff round are probably 1% or less.The off the Habs drafting top-5 are much higher, and that's something that they have control over.

@Lshap unfortunately shifted the goalposts to nonsensical locations -- drafting first overall versus making the playoffs. But that's phoney. There is zero value to making the playoffs if the team is massacred in the first round like it was in 2013 or 2017.

You've missed the point and shifted the topic to a totally ridiculous debate over percentages. The subject was specifically about Lafreniere.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

@Lshap

I personally put those odds at less than 1%.

100 points team over 82 games= +18
Habs last year over 82 games= +14
Habs this year over 50 games= +1

To make playoffs in 32 games= +15

You don't see the magnitude of what needs to be accomplished. Only a single team every 5-10 years manages this. To go from close to even at the 50 game mark and go +15 or better. Last time was St-Louis last year and before that, the Devils before Brodeur retired.

 

[Lshap]

@Lshap

I personally put those odds at less than 1%.

100 points team over 82 games= +18
Habs last year over 82 games= +14
Habs this year over 50 games= +1

To make playoffs in 32 games= +15

You don't see the magnitude of what needs to be accomplished. Only a single team every 5-10 years manages this.

Why in the world are you giving me playoff odds?

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Why in the world are you giving me playoff odds?

Because you said those odds are higher than getting the 1stov.

They are not.

 

[Lshap]

Because you said those odds are higher than getting the 1stov.

They are not.

So if the Habs win the next two/three games and their playoff odds surpass their 1st OA odds, they should go for it and become buyers because their odds are now a godly 8%??

Dude, tiny differences between two longshots is not the topic I was discussing. I was responding to a few people who brought up the need to get Lafreniere. Not how to max out this draft in general, but how to get Lafreniere specifically. It was suggested we need him. My point was to forget Lafreniere. He's a false goal, like the playoffs. Those two extremes won't happen. Instead, maximize the 1st round and other teams' top prospects, which is realistic. IMO, the best pick we could probably get is 5th to 8th. A second pick in the 10th to 20th range is optimistic, but doable.

 

[montreal]

The odds of the Habs reaching a Wild Card spot are better than winning the 1st OA. None of us want Bergevin to make a bunch of desperate moves for a long-shot, either for the playoffs or to become worse than Detroit. Rather than create a false sense of urgency that we NEED the playoffs or NEED Lafreniere, wouldn't it make more sense to pursue goals we could actually achieve? Getting another 1st-round pick would be a smart and realistic start, as would getting another top prospect. We'd need to trade Tatar or Petry, but even then the Habs aren't dropping lower than they did after their two horrific slumps.

The odds to get 1st OA are very low is is making the playoffs (say 5% I believe is the last I saw). They should have had a plan in place to get them closer to 1st OA this year vs trying again to maybe get a WC. Now they have to hope that they end up picking around this spot as they will be hard pressed to be much higher then 5th OA, but the move we move down the better the odds to move up in the lottery which certainly can happen since we moved up to 3rd OA just 2 years ago.

Of course I don't think the Habs will do this as they clearly think they can make the playoffs next year or that they can sell the fan base that we will be in the running for the playoffs next year because of injuries we would have been this year. That buys them another year to muddle in the mire of mediocrity while hoping Romanov comes over this summer along with Caufield turning pro, that they will help the roster enough to push us over the edge to finally get back to the playoffs. Not saying I believe it will happen but that I believe that's their line of thinking.

So I don't expect them to do too much in the way of selling or tanking. I think maybe they trade someone if they get a good enough offer much like they did with Shaw but I would think it more likely to be Tatar since they can't count on Romanov being there to say replace Petry unless he told MB yes I will sign for sure but even then it's risky until you have him signed. Now that should happen before the draft at least so perhaps it could happen though I wouldn't bet on it.

I expect them to not do too much, so we'll just have to hope we can get lucky in the lottery and if not 1st OA, the closer we get to it the easier it would be to move up if MB was willing to pay the high price. Should be very interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[ECWHSWI]

So if the Habs win the next two/three games and their playoff odds surpass their 1st OA odds, they should go for it and become buyers because their odds are now a godly 8%??

Dude, tiny differences between two longshots is not the topic I was discussing. I was responding to a few people who brought up the need to get Lafreniere. Not how to max out this draft in general, but how to get Lafreniere specifically. It was suggested we need him. My point was to forget Lafreniere. He's a false goal, like the playoffs. Those two extremes won't happen. Instead, maximize the 1st round and other teams' top prospects, which is realistic. IMO, the best pick we could probably get is 5th to 8th. A second pick in the 10th to 20th range is optimistic, but doable.

have no idea why a team around that spot would trade us their 1st round pick.