What's the minimum return for which you'd trade Komarov at the deadline?

[Bomber0104]

Really?

Here's what a 2nd round pick actually gets you in the last few years:

• Ryan Spooner
• Daniel Sprong
• PK Subban
• Shae Weber
• James Neal
• Paul Stastny
• Jake Allen
• Derek Stepan
• Ryan O'Reilly
• Tomas Tatar
• Justin Faulk
• Ty Rattie
• John Gibson
• Brandon Saad
• Johan Sundstrom
• Nicky Petan

Paul Stastny was drafted 10 years ago....

That's not a "few years".

That's a decade.

 

[Tak7]

You'd move a 40 point, character winger, who plays every situation; for a second round pick which has a 25% chance of making the NHL? Let alone being as effective as Leo?

How do you not see the failed logic in that... Help..

Logic is simple - I don't think this offense is sustainable.

Look at the list I provided - plenty of high impact players have been taken in the 2nd round.

Speaking of logic - the logic of a rebuilding team keeping a 28 year old who offers the same things you can find in free agency every single darn year, escapes me.

If Komarov played on any other team, people here wouldn't be talking nearly as highly of him.

But lots of you are suffering from blue and white disease. He's a Maple Leaf. He is ours. And that is what is clouding your judgment.

 

[Tak7]

Paul Stastny was drafted 10 years ago....

That's not a "few years".

That's a decade.

My list included notable 2nd round picks from past, present, and likely playing in the future.

If you have issue with Stastny, take him off the list - there's several other names I've provided.

 

[Advanced stats]

Logic is simple - I don't think this offense is sustainable.

Look at the list I provided - plenty of high impact players have been taken in the 2nd round.

Speaking of logic - the logic of a rebuilding team keeping a 28 year old who offers the same things you can find in free agency every single darn year, escapes me.

If Komarov played on any other team, people here wouldn't be talking nearly as highly of him.

But lots of you are suffering from blue and white disease. He's a Maple Leaf. He is ours. And that is what is clouding your judgment.

Over Komarov's latest NHL stint(96 games) he is a 40 point player.

Yes I see that list. The list of busts and names that you wouldn't even recognize is 5 times as long. Why risk it? Why not maximize the asset we have by keeping him? There's not many other players in the league that I want on my third line leading by example. Every rebuilding team needs guys like Komarov leading young guys by example when they step into the league.

Yes there's a small chance that we draft a NHLer with the 2nd...but there's also just as big a chance we lose out by..Trading komarov for 2nd round bust, and then spending assets or money for a third liner that we already once had. Why risk it?

 

[Bomber0104]

My list included notable 2nd round picks from past, present, and likely playing in the future.

If you have issue with Stastny, take him off the list - there's several other names I've provided.

That or you can simply re-word that post of yours...

Shea Weber, too, was taken over 10 years ago (2003 draft)....

If you want to make a point, you should try and make sure the information is accurate in the way you present it.

 

[Menzinger]

Where do you get the less than 20 points pace?
Last season he scored at a 34 point pace
This season he is scoring at a 58 point pace.(I agree its unsustainable)
By no means is it a stretch to call him a 40 point player. And you can't use the sample size argument because over this current NHL stint(96 games) he's scoring at a pace well over 40 points a season.

Very hard to replace a responsible player with his skill set and work ethic. And to have players consistently on your team through a rebuild as opposed to a turnover of players is very important.
A second round pick simply doesn't justify trading him.

His only other NHL season he put up 9 points over 42 games which ends up being less than 20 points pace over a full 82 games.

Last season he put up 34 points over 52 games in the KHL - while decent, clearly isn't on the same level as the NHL in terms of quality.

So I'm skeptical of his offensive prowess in the NHL. He's currently having a great season so far, but I won't be surprised to see him regress to being a 20-30 point guy next year. So if a team offered something of noticeable value (such as a 1st or 2nd round pick) id take it since the team would be "selling high".

Like him as a player though.

 

[Advanced stats]

His only other NHL season he put up 9 points over 42 games which ends up being less than 20 points pace over a full 82 games.

Last season he put up 34 points over 52 games in the KHL - while decent, clearly isn't on the same level as the NHL in terms of quality.

Please look at the stats before you post.
Leo currently has 3 NHL seasons we can use stats from.

Last season 2014-2015(as in the season before the current one)Leo Komarov played in the NHL(not the khl as you claim.

He scored 26 points in 62 games. A 34 point pace.

And like I said, in his current NHL stint, which is a solid sample size, he's scoring at a 45 point per season pace.

EDIT: The NHL season your referring to is from 2012-13 and its not fair to judge him off that. Good try though.

 

[Menzinger]

Please look at the stats before you post.
Leo currently has 3 NHL seasons we can use stats from.

Last season 2014-2015(as in the season before the current one)Leo Komarov played in the NHL(not the khl as you claim.

He scored 26 points in 62 games. A 34 point pace.

And like I said, in his current NHL stint, which is a solid sample size, he's scoring at a 45 point per season pace.

EDIT: The NHL season your referring to is from 2012-13 and its not fair to judge him off that. Good try though.

You're right - had a bit of a brain fart: late night at work.

Though I still feel my overall point stands - you can't discount his first NHL season: he wasn't an 18 year old rookie - he came in with several men's league seasons under his belt. I think that 30ish point season is likely much closer to his average point production than 40+ points.

Either way, I feel he is as replaceable as other decent players the Leafs have flipped, like they did with Winnik last year.

 

[Tak7]

That or you can simply re-word that post of yours...

Shea Weber, too, was taken over 10 years ago (2003 draft)....

If you want to make a point, you should try and make sure the information is accurate in the way you present it.

Oh, spare me your pretentious BS - the point I was making about quality being found in the 2nd round is an obvious one.

 

[4thline]

Logic is simple - I don't think this offense is sustainable.

Look at the list I provided - plenty of high impact players have been taken in the 2nd round.

Speaking of logic - the logic of a rebuilding team keeping a 28 year old who offers the same things you can find in free agency every single darn year, escapes me.

If Komarov played on any other team, people here wouldn't be talking nearly as highly of him.

But lots of you are suffering from blue and white disease. He's a Maple Leaf. He is ours. And that is what is clouding your judgment.

A couple things.

Firstly, I don't think that there is anyone that doesn't think he's going to regress. He's not a 35 goal 60 point guy. But if he was a late 1st doesn't start the conversation, that player is worth more than JVR. But when projecting what he we will be you have to look in more detail. His assist rate is virtually unchanged from last year to this, a 20-25 point pace over a full season. His goal production made an unsustainable jump, fed by two things-increased hot rate and increased shooting percentage. The shot rate is sustainable, and while the shooting percentage will fall IMO it will be more likely in the 9-0 range than the 7, leaving a 16 ish goal pace. So a post regression 35-40 point player. Still worth a second.

Secondly, to me the concept of "you find him in free agency no problem" is flat out wrong, and shows a flat out lack of player evaluation within player "type". There are plenty of third and fourth liners in free agency, and those players have a wiiiide range of overall abilities, of which Leo Komarov is at the top. There are plenty of "grinders", but not many are as effective a forechecker, with as good of 200 foot game. Leo Komarov is a good hockey player that is also physical, it doesn't take blue and white disease to see that.
In free agency
there will be some players with comparable offense
there will be some players that play comparably physical
there will be some players that are effective with their physicality (not mindless bangers)
there will be some players that are as good defensively, on the pk,
etc.

The list players with all those things will be short, and that player will be desired and make as much or more than Leo. Players that are easily replaceable don't get valued for 1st round picks, unless you consider a poor substitute at comparable cost "replacement"

 

[deprw]

We need players that stick through rebuild. You can bet that Babcock don't want to coach bunch of youngsters and spare parts. Tell them that the culture will change here when you start to win and before that if you're stock rises we'll trade you right out. This forum is one big bubble where people like to think players as assets and think every 2nd rounder is Shea Weber or Paul Stastny.

If we wan't build culture here you need some sort of core. It won't be the final core and it might change ten times. From this moment to TDL next season we'll probably have at least 10 players from this team. First I'd keep is Komarov and I'm not counting youngsters like Rielly that are essential pieces of this rebuild.

He has all the intangibles that you need bottom six player and at the moment he can score like top6 forward. You though won't get really high pick from him and trading him for 2nd is a joke. You can get 2nd at the TDL for lesser players. You can get that 2nd for Leo when his playing the last season of this contract.

Hopefully we have replaced him with young player that can play his role, when we do that. Like I have said before his unique talent in his role. If we'd get lottery pick for him that would be no brainer, but at the moment it's hard to imagine getting 1st.

We're very desperate if we trade him for 2nd. He has more value us than 25% lottery pick to get NHL player. For every PK Subban there is two will webers and theo ruths. I wouldn't even trade him for Zack Philips, Matt Puempel or Tyler Biggs. If you look 1st round picks from 20-30 it isn't festive where core players are handed out.

He was more value to us than we can get for him in the trade. Let say we sign Stamkos next summer and win lottery and draft Matthews. Everything is going for us and we are walking to playoffs. Would you like to have Leo part of the team when we make playoffs?

That's pipe dream but his contract would be great asset then. It's great asset now and even if we are building our team his great asset even then. I'd think Babcock would agree that. He is player any team would want and need, but none would really overpay but would happily agree if we want gift him to them.

There is no reason to do that. We can do that when his contract is up. Injuries are risk that can hinder his value, but it's same risk with every player.

 

[UllmansTiger]

You're right - had a bit of a brain fart: late night at work.

Though I still feel my overall point stands - you can't discount his first NHL season: he wasn't an 18 year old rookie - he came in with several men's league seasons under his belt. I think that 30ish point season is likely much closer to his average point production than 40+ points.

Either way, I feel he is as replaceable as other decent players the Leafs have flipped, like they did with Winnik last year.

I agree, you can't discount his first season, he had one short season playing with the Marlies then that one where he started learning the NHL game on smaller ice. His second year he had 4g 12a in 23 games before being concussed by Ovie, he wasn't the same after that for most of the season but that's a .7ppg rate. His shooting % currently will fall but he's showing that he can play with more skilled linemates, and maintain the rest of his game. So yeah, his first season to now shows he has a learning curve, and may not be done improving.

Winnik will likely not be flipped this year...

 

[deprw]

His first season Komarov was mostly used in 4th or 3rd line. That's one reason why he left, because he wanted to play in Sochi. Went to KHL played in 1st line then got into Olympics. This is his first chance in scoring role in the NHL. I think Komarov is better suited for NA hockey than russian. So let's see.