Speculation: What would you pay Larkin on an extension?

[stillwater]

Does Grizzly Adams have a beard?

Precisely

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Cale Makar had 86 points last year. The most Larkin has ever potted is 73.

Makar was +48 last year, Larkin's best +/- was his rookie year at +11, and has been a minus every other year except this year when he is currently +1

Cale Makar’s first name sounds like a superfood. Dylan Larkin’s first name sounds like the little bastard kid in an early 2000s Disney show who’s supposed to be the cute one

 

[Reddwit]

If Larkin’s public statement today is to believed at face value…

It’s very safe to say he will not be getting traded.
That’s a pipe dream, despite people saying ‘if he won’t sign, than trade him’ .
Dude has a full no trade.


March 3 means absolutely nothing to him personally and is by no means a deadline to his end goal.

If his main objective is to remain playing for the Red Wings… then he would simply continue playing for the Red Wings and continue negotiating until July 1st… which is a real actual deadline.

You think it’s a pipe dream that Larkin won’t be traded when Steve has allegedly capped his offer for Larkin? Do people not remember Yzerman letting Stamkos walk for nothing because he’d reached his max with him? He also had no problem giving up on his own top pick when Drouin wasn’t falling in line. Yzerman’s got steel balls when he makes up his mind but at least one thing is different with Larkin - Yzerman can’t afford to let Larkin walk like he could with a deep roster in Tampa. You’ve got your head in the sand if you’re redlining the possibility of a Larkin trade.

Also think Steve is telegraphing what he thinks of Larkin by even having a sub-9M cap for his “franchise” forward.

 

[Frk It]

You think it’s a pipe dream that Larkin won’t be traded when Steve has allegedly capped his offer for Larkin? Do people not remember Yzerman letting Stamkos walk for nothing because he’d reached his max with him?

Guess we have different definitions of "walk for nothing".

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

You think it’s a pipe dream that Larkin won’t be traded when Steve has allegedly capped his offer for Larkin? Do people not remember Yzerman letting Stamkos walk for nothing because he’d reached his max with him? He also had no problem giving up on his own top pick when Drouin wasn’t falling in line. Yzerman’s got steel balls when he makes up his mind but at least one thing is different with Larkin - Yzerman can’t afford to let Larkin walk like he could with a deep roster in Tampa. You’ve got your head in the sand if you’re redlining the possibility of a Larkin trade.

Also think Steve is telegraphing what he thinks of Larkin by even having a sub-9M cap for his “franchise” forward.

He absolutely can let him walk if he chooses that way. I don't think there is a possibility of a Larkin trade because I don't think he's remotely interested in leaving. Yzerman "let Stamkos walk for nothing" because he knew from negotiating with the man that he was either going to get a deal so far out of Yzerman's price range that he wouldn't sign him or Stammer would be back.

Same deal with Larkin when you're looking at the potential replacement market for UFA Cs next year. Either Larkin is gonna absolutely bust the bank with someone else (10M+) or he's gonna be a Red Wing. The teams with the cap to take a serious run at Larkin are largely in a worse position than Detroit. Anyone that would be enticing for Larkin would have to telegraph that they're making a play for him and/or sell pieces at a fire sale. Yzerman isn't reckless. He's a tough negotiator... he's not stupid.

 

[RedWingzz]

Given that he’s played that same game with bigger fish… I don’t know how dangerous the game is.

All this shows is that 90% of people on these boards would be terrible GMs because they’re scared shitless of “poor asset management

You're missing a huge difference though, Tampa was in the playoffs, and had a chance for the Cup. I'm kinda shocked that I have to explain this to you to be honest. If you think they are even remotely close to the same scenarios, well I don't know what to tell you.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

You're missing a huge difference though, Tampa was in the playoffs, and had a chance for the Cup. I'm kinda shocked that I have to explain this to you to be honest. If you think they are even remotely close to the same scenarios, well I don't know what to tell you.

Well... you don't have to explain it to me. I understand how the situations are different. However, if anything, that makes it more reasonable that Yzerman is playing it this way with Larkin, not less... because can you imagine if the Lightning coming off losing in the Finals decided to just wholesale move on from their second leading scorer Stamkos and they flopped in the playoffs? (Now, hindsight proved that Stamkos got hurt pretty early in that season and it didn't affect anything, because they made it back to the ECF) People would have f***in eviscerated Yzerman for that.

I"m kinda shocked that you thought this was a gotcha type of point, to be honest. Yzerman plays chicken with Larkin and loses, Detroit is outside the playoffs and they're just putting their eggs into the Kasper, Rasmussen, Copp basket and picking up a lower-rung replacement while looking towards the top of the draft for the next guy. It's not ideal, but the Wings aren't playing for the cup in 23-24.

Whereas heading into 16-17, Tampa would have had a lot of splainin' to do if they lost their second leading scorer from the prior year when they made the Final for nothing

 

[RedWingzz]

Well... you don't have to explain it to me. I understand how the situations are different. However, if anything, that makes it more reasonable that Yzerman is playing it this way with Larkin, not less... because can you imagine if the Lightning coming off losing in the Finals decided to just wholesale move on from their second leading scorer Stamkos and they flopped in the playoffs? (Now, hindsight proved that Stamkos got hurt pretty early in that season and it didn't affect anything, because they made it back to the ECF) People would have f***in eviscerated Yzerman for that.

I"m kinda shocked that you thought this was a gotcha type of point, to be honest. Yzerman plays chicken with Larkin and loses, Detroit is outside the playoffs and they're just putting their eggs into the Kasper, Rasmussen, Copp basket and picking up a lower-rung replacement while looking towards the top of the draft for the next guy. It's not ideal, but the Wings aren't playing for the cup in 23-24.

Whereas heading into 16-17, Tampa would have had a lot of splainin' to do if they lost their second leading scorer from the prior year when they made the Final for nothing

If our center depth chart next season is Kasper, Ras and Copp, then we're absolutely ******. If "Yzerman plays chicken with Larkin and loses" may as well rebuild from the rebuild and hope to be in playoff contention by 2030.

I completely understand what he's doing from a management perspective, but if Larkin walks, then that's a fail on Yzerman's part.

 

[jaster]

If Larkin’s public statement today is to believed at face value…

It’s very safe to say he will not be getting traded.
That’s a pipe dream, despite people saying ‘if he won’t sign, than trade him’ .
Dude has a full no trade.


March 3 means absolutely nothing to him personally and is by no means a deadline to his end goal.

If his main objective is to remain playing for the Red Wings… then he would simply continue playing for the Red Wings and continue negotiating until July 1st… which is a real actual deadline.

This. Larkin signaled pretty hard today that he won't be waiving his NTC. It's an effective negotiating tactic; one that is very easy for him to follow-through with, and one that he has no reason to change his mind on in the next 4 weeks.

Do you take everything you read in the media at face value?

There's an awful lot that can change every day, let alone over the course of a month.

It wouldn't really make any sense for him to reverse course in the next 4 weeks, say, "actually, I don't see myself as a Wing," and then waive his NTC. He has negotiating power and he's using it, as he should.

 

[SoupNazi]

Do people not remember Yzerman letting Stamkos walk for nothing because he’d reached his max with him?

I don't remember him leaving Tampa. Have I been asleep for years?

 

[jaster]

If our center depth chart next season is Kasper, Ras and Copp, then we're absolutely ******. If "Yzerman plays chicken with Larkin and loses" may as well rebuild from the rebuild and hope to be in playoff contention by 2030.

I completely understand what he's doing from a management perspective, but if Larkin walks, then that's a fail on Yzerman's part.

Yup. My guess is that right now Yzerman is leaning as hard as he can into almost the only leverage he has: the knowledge that Dylan Larkin truly does want to remain a Red Wing (to what degree, exactly, none of us know). They're both attempting to call each other's bluff, but Larkin is the one with more leverage at this point, so the pressure is indeed more on Yzerman.

 

[stillwater]

Yes, the situations are all different, but a lot better players than Dylan Larkin were willing to take less money than their own true /perceived value to play for the Red Wings in order to play for a winner, or in this case, help build a winner.

Yzerman is not trying to save the Illich's money. He's trying to structure contracts under a CAP today, and in the future to build a perennial winner and Stanley Cup Champion. Arguably no one knows CAP resource better than Yzerman's group here.

If Dylan Larkin wants to play somewhere else where he can make more money, that's his earned right in the NHL.

But despite Larkin having the leverage of a NTC, I just don't see Yzerman caving in at all. NO chance.

If he doesn't sign by the deadline, Yzerman will in all likelyhood try to trade him (yes, I know Larkin can veto any trade). If Larkin refuses to waive his NTC and leaves for nothing, who do you think will come out looking like a donkey from the standpoint of Red Wing fans? Larkin, of course.

Yes, there'll be a couple of guys who will be contrarians for the sake of being contrarian, but Red Wing nation loves Steve Yzerman and Steve Yzerman will always be the Captain.

Yzerman has been successful everywhere he's gone ... and Dylan Larkin will ultimately not change that regardless of what he and Pat Brisson decide to do.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

It's a dangerous game for sure..

If he isnt signed by March 3rd you need to consider moving him.. you can not have a John Tavares situation, no pj mention required.

That said, Larkin has a NTC and seems to wish to remain a DRW so not sure he'd waive.

Not sure how much if anything his longterm value will change between March 3rd and July 4th. I cant see either side bugging much between those dates either..

So get him signed, force a trade or pray we get lucky..

Crappy situation to be in

 

[Reddwit]

Guess we have different definitions of "walk for nothing".

Am I missing something? Stamkos made it to July 1st and was wined and dined by Toronto before returning to Tampa to take the offer. Steve was willing to expose Stamkos to all other GMs’ offers without gettin anything in return. The fact that Stamkos came back doesn’t change the fact he let him walk in the first place.

 

[norrisnick]

Am I missing something? Stamkos made it to July 1st and was wined and dined by Toronto before returning to Tampa to take the offer. Steve was willing to expose Stamkos to all other GMs’ offers without gettin anything in return. The fact that Stamkos came back doesn’t change the fact he let him walk in the first place.

 

[stillwater]

Just for the record, I like Dylan Larkin as a player more than most here. From all accounts he's been a good example for his teammates, and he busts his ass most every night.

But, you have to draw a line somewhere.

 

[JediOrderPizza]

Am I missing something? Stamkos made it to July 1st and was wined and dined by Toronto before returning to Tampa to take the offer. Steve was willing to expose Stamkos to all other GMs’ offers without gettin anything in return. The fact that Stamkos came back doesn’t change the fact he let him walk in the first place.

Remember they had the interview period thing before free agency then. They totally don't do that now... Never any tampering ever.

 

[TheOctopusKid]

One thing to consider here in terms of this: assuming Larkin wants 9-10 whatever for term (6 years plus?), how many teams value him at that rate? How many of those teams who do value him at that rate have the space to take him on? And out of those teams, how many of those teams aren’t the Arizona Coyotes or Vancouver Canucks or basically a team that Larkin would prefer over the Wings and where they are?

Would he really balk at a 7x56 from DET to get a 7x70 deal from ARZ? There might not be much of a market if this is a dollar issue given he’s our captain and definitively our best forward and even we can agree to pay him north of 8. Not sure how many open market teams would line up to pay 10 a year for a C whose never cracked 80pts.

 

[Reddwit]

He absolutely can let him walk if he chooses that way. I don't think there is a possibility of a Larkin trade because I don't think he's remotely interested in leaving. Yzerman "let Stamkos walk for nothing" because he knew from negotiating with the man that he was either going to get a deal so far out of Yzerman's price range that he wouldn't sign him or Stammer would be back.

Same deal with Larkin when you're looking at the potential replacement market for UFA Cs next year. Either Larkin is gonna absolutely bust the bank with someone else (10M+) or he's gonna be a Red Wing. The teams with the cap to take a serious run at Larkin are largely in a worse position than Detroit. Anyone that would be enticing for Larkin would have to telegraph that they're making a play for him and/or sell pieces at a fire sale. Yzerman isn't reckless. He's a tough negotiator... he's not stupid.

If Yzerman chooses to let Larkin walk, he should be fired. We are not in a position to let one of our best trade chips walk, even if it takes some NTC finagling and finding a good fit. There, at the very least, needs to be evidence of him trying to get it done.

And Steve let Stamkos walk cause he’d either sign Yzerman’s deal or a different, more expensive one? That’s how every UFA scenario works. The point is Steve stuck to his guns and didn’t budge on his price point. He was open to a scenario where Stamkos was gone. He even publicly said he was open to a sign-and-trade with Stamkos. If Steve is capping Larkin’s salary demands, then he’s open to a scenario where Larkin is gone. That’s the point. Whether Larkin walks or is traded is immaterial to the fact that Steve is open to Larkin leaving.

And if we’re in a situation where Larkin is vetoing trades cause he wants to stay *so badly* then, yeah, Steve doesn’t trade him but that’s because Steve has that intel. Then the whole argument is moot and Larkin signs for $8.95M at some point between now and October because he wants to stay so badly.

 

[Frk It]

Guess we have different definitions of "walk for nothing".

You could say “he seemed like he was ok with the risk of losing him for nothing”…

But

1) He got him to re-sign
2) He got him to re-sign before he actually became an UFA

 

[Reddwit]

View attachment 645469

You’re right. It wasn’t July 1st, it was June 25th - the open negotiation period for UFAs. Doesn’t change the sentiment though. He let Stamkos go exposed to every other teams’ offers. Leafs wined and dined the f*** out of him.

Again - Steve was willing to let Stamkos go over a price point. He has a history of sticking to his guns, just like he’s doing here. Maybe it works out, maybe it doesn’t this time, but he’s willing to lose Larkin over money, and it doesn’t seem to be about the $1M itself.

You could say “he seemed like he was ok with the risk of losing him for nothing”…

But

1) He got him to re-sign
2) He got him to re-sign before he actually became an UFA

That’s an irrelevant point when Stamkos was able to field offers for 4 days.

 

[TheOtherOne]

. Leafs wined and dined the f*** out of him.

That's hot

 

[Holden Caufield]

Do you take everything you read in the media at face value?

There's an awful lot that can change every day, let alone over the course of a month.

No most media are pushing their own narrative IMO.

However this is basically a statement directly from Larkin. So it is what it is, he isn’t getting traded.

 

[Holden Caufield]

You think it’s a pipe dream that Larkin won’t be traded when Steve has allegedly capped his offer for Larkin? Do people not remember Yzerman letting Stamkos walk for nothing because he’d reached his max with him? He also had no problem giving up on his own top pick when Drouin wasn’t falling in line. Yzerman’s got steel balls when he makes up his mind but at least one thing is different with Larkin - Yzerman can’t afford to let Larkin walk like he could with a deep roster in Tampa. You’ve got your head in the sand if you’re redlining the possibility of a Larkin trade.

Also think Steve is telegraphing what he thinks of Larkin by even having a sub-9M cap for his “franchise” forward.

If Larkin wants to play in Detroit…. And he says he does. Than Larkin will continue to play in Detroit. That is the premise of a no trade clause.

Are you saying his own statement is wrong ?
I don’t know why he would do that.
Why not just keep quiet and waive your no trade clause behind the scenes ? Rather than make a public remark stating the exact opposite.

Whether they ultimately come to terms on an extension is another story.
I was only commenting on if Detroit will be able to trade him.

 

[Reddwit]

If Larkin wants to play in Detroit…. And he says he does. Than Larkin will continue to play in Detroit. That is the premise of a no trade clause.

Are you saying his own statement is wrong ?
I don’t know why he would do that.
Why not just keep quiet and waive your no trade clause behind the scenes ? Rather than make a public remark stating the exact opposite.

Whether they ultimately come to terms on an extension is another story.
I was only commenting on if Detroit will be able to trade him.

I guess where we differ is that a long-time player saying he wants to stay with his team just doesn’t carry that much weight with me. They all say that. And after this season where we’ve improved only modestly (IMO), I could see where he’s just fed up and wants to win and wants his money. That’s not me saying Larkin doesn’t want to be here - I’m just saying his public statement isn’t much evidence. Agree to disagree.

I also just think Yzerman is prepared for a future without Larkin and is the kind of GM who would surprise us all by trading him if it came to that. I don’t think he’s hung up on Larkin being a franchise player cause he doesn’t see him that way. Most here seem to think Yzerman would be desperate to keep Larkin and I’m just not sure that’s the case.