Prediction Contest: What will Kyle Dubas' first "Moneyball" type move and who is untouchable?

[GoonieFace]

it won't be fine if he extends gardiner. he does more bad than good. he needs to get off this team if we are to accomplish something other than a 1st round exit. if gardiner is extended i seriously question whether this team can win even more than i do now. i want everyone from the carlyle team gone. possibly even reilly and kadri if we can get good positional replacements back.

Whaaaaaaat?

 

[ottomaddox]

Replacing:

JVR LW
Komarov LW
Bozak C
Moore C
Plekanec C
Polak D

With:

Hertl LW
Stastny C
Beagle C
Carlson D
Nash LW

 

[Muston Atthews]

Replacing:

JVR LW
Komarov LW
Bozak C
Moore C
Plekanec C
Polak D

With:

Hertl LW
Stastny C
Beagle C
Carlson D
Nash LW

Lmao... just because we have cap space doesn’t mean we need to use it all. Especially on a bunch of over the hill players + Carlson

 

[Muston Atthews]

I think he'll try and sign Jumbo Joe on a big one year contract (~$9 million). If not him, then someone else on a big one year deal.

Kovalchuk hopefully

 

[PuckMagi]

The challenge for Dubas will be to hit the cap ceiling, but leave enough room to sign Matthews and Marner the next year. So he has to sign some big 1 year deals.

I would be looking at Jumbo Joe and Kovalchuk. We should be able to afford to offer them a lot of money on a 1 year deal. Then next year, all that money basically goes to Matthews and Marner.

 

[PuckMagi]

Kovalchuk hopefully

ya, that's the other guy I was thinking too.

 

[Cor]

kyle dubas is much more theo epstein than billy bean, a gm that uses new style analytics that isnt hamstrung by financial restrictions. epstein i believe now has 3 world series titles.

Nailed it.

 

[Cor]

I could see him wanting to make a big move to make his mark. The Leafs are in a great position to do so as they're built well for the future and are looking to take the next step. This all while we know they need improvement on defense. Also with Tavares looming as a pending UFA.... There are some avenues to go down.

This summer will be interesting for Dubas.

- There's the John Tavares elephant.
- William Nylander needs his new contract, and Auston Matthews/Mitch Marner become eligible on July 1 for an extension
- This team needs some sort of defensive upgrade, there's a pretty prominent right handed defensemen available in free agency, and there appears to be a good amount of potential trade options.

That is the start of it, let alone the more minor issues;

- The goaltending situation. One of them is going to be traded. It may not be until September, but that is a move that needs to be made
- Josh Leivo. It has become quite apparent that Josh Leivo doesn't have a long-term future on this team. Even if he's on the team next year, it's likely on the 4th line, so we need to figure out if his value above his replacement in that spot is greater than the value he'd bring back in a trade
- Matt Martin. Will be a tough trade to make for a couple reasons. Mainly, his contract. Secondly, his relationships with out players. The young guys love him, and while we can't keep him just for that reason, Dubas needs to make sure everything goes smoothly.

Not too mention the entire draft, and what strategy Dubas/Hunter use this year.

Will be interesting.

 

[Duke16]

Gardiner to Edmonton for the 10th pick.

 

[ottomaddox]

Lmao... just because we have cap space doesn’t mean we need to use it all. Especially on a bunch of over the hill players + Carlson

Stastny and Hertl at the TDL.

 

[TheProspector]

Dubas's first moneyball move was picking up Michael Grabner back in '15-16.

 

[MR4]

Now obviously there's gonna people coming in to say 'omg no ones untouchable, Gretzky was traded'.. and yea.. congrats you're right.. but who has more I guess protection of not being included in a trade now that Dubas is GM, and who can Dubas be expected to like less than Lou?

I'd say Kapanen & Johnsson are two guys getting big boosts in terms of the GM thinking they're part of the core, Kapanen was handpicked by Dubas in the Kessel deal while Dubas has said to Johnsson essentially 'what's stopping you from being Arvidsson?'. I also think the big 3 will be more safe than they already were with Dubas likely focusing on value in their potential more.

I'd say Zaitsev is probably 1 that is now less of a core piece, apparently Lou loved him but he had bad advanced stats w/ weak eye test and although Dubas likely gives him another year to figure it out after Zaitsev had a kid & injuries this year, I think he won't be scared to flip him if it repeats. And obviously i don't think we'll see any UFAs return. (Polak included)

Your thoughts?

 

[The CyNick]

Theres too many threads about Dubas

 

[The Man with a Plan]

It’s not what hell do but what he won’t do. The chances of getting Karlsson/Doughty/Tavares plummeted (as low as they were to begin with)

To be fair.. signing those players is nothing more then a pipedream by some.

 

[MR4]

Theres too many threads about Dubas

When it's the only newsworthy thing for the Leafs from now until Keefe is hired by the New York Rangers, its fine. But discussing who's core now with Dubas is a more threadworthy than 'what will be his first moneyball move'.

 

[MR4]

Well this supports Nylander staying in Toronto:

 

[The Man with a Plan]

Baseball has no salary cap though. In hockey every team needs to maximize financial efficiency, not just the poor ones.

There is still a world of difference between say the Yotes and the Leafs and how they do business. One is a cap floor team and another is heading for a cap crunch in the near future. (Crosses fingers that's the case as it means everyone has continued to grow their game leaps and bounds)

 

[The CyNick]

When it's the only newsworthy thing for the Leafs from now until Keefe is hired by the New York Rangers, its fine. But discussing who's core now with Dubas is a more threadworthy than 'what will be his first moneyball move'.

I think both threads have equal level of merit.

 

[The CyNick]

Well this supports Nylander staying in Toronto:

Who ever thought he was leaving??

 

[IBeL34f]

If we see any of Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly, Andersen, Dermott or Liljegren leave before they're eligible for Unrestricted Free Agency, I'll be very, very surprised.

 

[MR4]

Stastny and Hertl at the TDL.

Have you lost it? Stastny is a UFA that most definitely won't sign a 1 year deal. And Hertl is a huge part of the Sharks, why the hell would they trade him

 

[The CyNick]

If we see any of Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly, Andersen, Dermott or Liljegren leave before they're eligible for Unrestricted Free Agency, I'll be very, very surprised.

Rielly could easily go for a decent top 4. Actually even Andersen could too if we had another goalie come along.

Liljigren and Dermott could be traded. Too early to call them Untouchables.

 

[IBeL34f]

Rielly could easily go for a decent top 4. Actually even Andersen could too if we had another goalie come along.

Liljigren and Dermott could be traded. Too early to call them Untouchables.

It's too early to have any idea what they actually will be, and that's exactly why I'll be surprised if they're moved. My expectation is that they're valued much more highly by our management team than they are by the majority of our fans.

I don't even know what to say about Rielly "easily [going] for a decent top-4"...

 

[Superstar]

Who ever thought he was leaving??

Pimping Willy for a big trade...

 

[kk87]

Rielly could easily go for a decent top 4. Actually even Andersen could too if we had another goalie come along.

Liljigren and Dermott could be traded. Too early to call them Untouchables.

Why in god's name would we move Rielly... there's no scenario where he'd yield a better return on defense and he's on a darling of a contract