Prediction Contest: What will Kyle Dubas' first "Moneyball" type move and who is untouchable?

[ottomaddox]

We all have the impression that Dubas leans towards advanced stats to evaluate players, and is part of a "new" / fresh approach.

So keeping to the theme of a "Moneyball" approach to team building, what do you believe will be Dubas' first (outside the box) move?

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[GoonieFace]

Fire Babcock and make Emilio Estevez head coach.

 

[The CyNick]

Hopefully none because the A's never hung any banners.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Justin Holl makes the roster.

 

[ACC1224]

Justin Holl makes the roster.

He would be in camp regardless of the GM, wouldn't he?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Besides not re-signing certain guys, my guess is trade Martin.

 

[Gallagbi]

He signs a minor league player that this board over reacts and argues about even though the organization has already been eyeing for months/years.

 

[ottomaddox]

Besides not re-signing certain guys, my guess is trade Martin.

I thought this might be the first prediction. Close.

 

[TheDoldrums]

He would be in camp regardless of the GM, wouldn't he?

I meant opening night roster, I think he's a guy Dubas will fight for, even if he's not really a Babcock type.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

My guess is spinning off draft picks to hoard a bunch.

 

[Stand Witness]

PTOS, cheaper short term FAs.

Seriously though, I think it will be based around promoting more of what he did with the Marlies. Stock our ECHL affiliate and stock our AHL team. 3 tier pro system.

Draft picks.

Willingness to draft/trade based on value of pick first and foremost. Someone wants to move up? Sure we will probably get more value moving down.

 

[realgoodleafs]

Probably trade Marner for Hamilton.

 

[Advanced stats]

On the flip side, the power moneyball move, will involve not seriously pursuing Tavares and Carlson.
They might put out feelers, but not pursue.

 

[Advanced stats]

Typo

 

[Advanced stats]

Probably trade Marner for Hamilton.

At that point this move has a zero chance of happening.
...and rightfully so

 

[MattySnipes]

Dubas doesn't blindly believe in the 'eye test'. He does believe it works but it has to be supported with other aspects like advanced stats, etc.

Judging by that, I can see him letting go of Matt Martin, Roman Polak, and Leo Komarov.

Good riddance.

Welcome KD! Been a longtime coming. Glad you've arrived!

 

[Muston Atthews]

It’s not what hell do but what he won’t do. The chances of getting Karlsson/Doughty/Tavares plummeted (as low as they were to begin with)

 

[ACC1224]

I meant opening night roster, I think he's a guy Dubas will fight for, even if he's not really a Babcock type.

That would be up to the Coach.

 

[Buds17]

Blockbuster trade with more moving parts than the Gilmour deal with the Flames or the Phaneuf deal with the Sens.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Moneypuck doesn't really work in hockey. That doesn't mean analytics aren't important but hockey has too many random events/variables to be able to build a team like you can in baseball, which has a lot more structure which makes it easier to predict what a player will do when they step on the field.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Hamilton's putting up good shot suppression metrics so he might see Hamilton as an all-around top pairing guy instead of just an offensive D.

I could also see him getting value for upcoming FAs like Gardiner if he thinks the system can replace them.

 

[PuckMagi]

I think he'll try and sign Jumbo Joe on a big one year contract (~$9 million). If not him, then someone else on a big one year deal.

 

[Mess]

He signs a minor league player that this board over reacts and argues about even though the organization has already been eyeing for months/years.

Last time Dubas was in the interim GM Chair it was Mark Arcobello he signed due to advanced analytics.



With Kyle Dubas noting that the Leafs are going to move Nick Spaling back to center, Arcobello could join a center group that currently looks like this: Kadri, Bozak, Holland, Spaling, Arcobello, Carrick.

It follows the theme of the day, along with the Matt Hunwick and P.A. Parenteau adds – cheap flyers on players with good possession numbers.

 

[realgoodleafs]

Hamilton's putting up good shot suppression metrics so he might see Hamilton as an all-around top pairing guy instead of just an offensive D.

I could also see him getting value for upcoming FAs like Gardiner if he thinks the system can replace them.

I'm pretty sure analytics people would want to extend Gardiner.

 

[IBeL34f]

That would be up to the Coach.

The GM has the most control over which of their 50 contracts end up on the final 23-man roster that Babs can choose from, though.

From there, the coach only gets to determine which combination of 20 of those 23 guys they want to use.

Justin Holl's chances of playing can be drastically improved or diminished by Dubas, as long as he's the person determining whether or not Holl makes that 23-man roster.