Prediction Contest: What will Kyle Dubas' first "Moneyball" type move and who is untouchable?

[leaffaninvancouver]

Ok so based on the lack of accuracy in the movie, baseball's recent history, and what you know about building a championship team what will be Dubas' first move? Tavares and Carlson? Can we expect a risk or two? Does he have the b@##s to trade 1 of the big 3? Kadri? Gardiner?

I think a lot of plans hinge on who Tavares signs with. I don't think he'll trade Marner or Nylander, at least not this upcoming season.

 

[4thline]

Prediction/hope/recommendation:

Draft Day- trade 25 to Detroit for 33+Daley

Take advantage of the premiums gm's place on getting "their guy" to reinforce our defense a steadying influence that brings a lot more than his cap hit, while still getting a similar quality prospect.

 

[IPS]

Prediction/hope/recommendation:

Draft Day- trade 25 to Detroit for 33+Daley

Take advantage of the premiums gm's place on getting "their guy" to reinforce our defense a steadying influence that brings a lot more than his cap hit, while still getting a similar quality prospect.

How is Daley looking nowadays? I barely watched Detroit this year. If it's the same Daley that played for Pittsburgh on their cup run that's a good addition to our defense.

 

[Aceboogie]

Oiler fan here. Big fan of the Dubas signing. I wouldnt be suprised if his first move was to target Klefbom from Edmonton. He seems to be on the outs with Chiarelli (who is a complete idiot) after an injury filled season.

 

[Trapper]

Oiler fan here. Big fan of the Dubas signing. I wouldnt be suprised if his first move was to target Klefbom from Edmonton. He seems to be on the outs with Chiarelli (who is a complete idiot) after an injury filled season.

I can't even imagine what Chia would want for Klefbom.

 

[Gallagbi]

I can't even imagine what Chia would want for Klefbom.

Knowing Chia?

 

[4thline]

How is Daley looking nowadays? I barely watched Detroit this year. If it's the same Daley that played for Pittsburgh on their cup run that's a good addition to our defense.

I don't think he's held up perfectly but I would think he would be an upgrade on Hainsey both in terms of quality and style (more mobile and better puck mover). He ate a lot of very tough minutes and while he was struggling to keep his head above water he was partnered with Jonathan Eriksson playing behind Helm/Neilsen/Abdelkader etc. Especially considering the acquisition and cap cost I think it would be a great move, leaving
Rielly-Daley
Gardiner-Hainsey
Dermott-Zaitsev

 

[Razz]

I expect Dubas to lean heavily on Marlies in the short term. I think Johnsson, Moore, Engvall, Mueller, Holl, Aaltonen and Sparks all get solid looks next season. Dubas' moneyball will be the Marlies. Player development is his niche, not FAs or trades.

 

[ottomaddox]

I expect Dubas to lean heavily on Marlies in the short term. I think Johnsson, Moore, Engvall, Mueller, Holl, Aaltonen and Sparks all get solid looks next season. Dubas' moneyball will be the Marlies. Player development is his niche, not FAs or trades.

Solid looks in camp, but no more than that. In the context of HF this would be a pure fantasy, but I really expect Dubas to want to hang on to his job for longer than 12 months.

 

[Buds17]

Ok so based on the lack of accuracy in the movie, baseball's recent history, and what you know about building a championship team what will be Dubas' first move? Tavares and Carlson? Can we expect a risk or two? Does he have the b@##s to trade 1 of the big 3? Kadri? Gardiner?

I'd definitely expect Dubas to pursue Tavares during the FA courting period. Outside chance of trading Gardiner if the belief is we can capably cover for his departure and he isn't in the future plans.

Since Dubas isn't new to the organization and we haven't been spinning our wheels/stuck in a rut as a team for a long while, I don't think the desire is there for a big impact, shakeup move. Anything can present itself though, so it's tough to entirely rule it out.

 

[Menzinger]

Solid looks in camp, but no more than that. In the context of HF this would be a pure fantasy, but I really expect Dubas to want to hang on to his job for longer than 12 months.

Though I do think when it come to rounding out depth roles on the team, I see Dubas leaning more on Marlies graduates than say older vet guys in free agency like Moore.

 

[darrylsittler27]

I have no idea but one has to think we need an upgrade(different type) on Gardiner or Zaitsev. Does he offer Karlsson big $$$$ ? I am of the train of thought that Tavarres isn't the answer, we don't need more offense and we have tons of wingers. IF you sign Karlssson or a Doughty or Myers you can then trade Gardiner or Zaitsev. If you sign Tavarres you have cap issues, way too many wingers and the main problem remains. In the East you need size and defense in the playoffs along with stellar goaltending. But more offense ? That we don't really need.

 

[pylon17]

Has there been a presser yet?

 

[613Leafer]

I expect better asset management than what we've seen over the last 2 years. 2nd round picks traded two years in a row to fill the 4th line C position, while simultaneously letting JVR, Bozak, Komarov, etc walk for nothing.

Do that for a couple more years, and we'll have a decimated farm system with limited cheap internal options to help us manage our cap while Matthews/Marner/Nylander are all on their big contracts.

 

[Razz]

Solid looks in camp, but no more than that. In the context of HF this would be a pure fantasy, but I really expect Dubas to want to hang on to his job for longer than 12 months.

Guess we'll see. I think he'll lean towards players he's familiar with to start as do most GMs. We have nothing bad to say about it either. The Marlies are incredible and have already filled half of the current Leafs roster.

 

[rent free]

Oiler fan here. Big fan of the Dubas signing. I wouldnt be suprised if his first move was to target Klefbom from Edmonton. He seems to be on the outs with Chiarelli (who is a complete idiot) after an injury filled season.

thanks. he will like jake gardiner in return because as we all knowm, great minds (charelli and gardiner) think alike

 

[nsleaf]

I wonder if Dubas will seek and/or heed advice from Lou or will he try to make a bold move just to establish himself?

 

[Razz]

I wonder if Dubas will seek and/or heed advice from Lou or will he try to make a bold move just to establish himself?

I would think (or hope) he consults Lou not on what to do, but how to do it. This is Dubas' team now so he'll make the decisions.

 

[Aceboogie]

I can't even imagine what Chia would want for Klefbom.

Honestly- Probably like Bozak or a 2nd round pick and prospect. Right now he could be had for pennies on the dollar due to it being Chiarelli

 

[Superstar]

Knowing Chia?

But those lead to the golden goose...at least Chiarelli will be buying it.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

I expect better asset management than what we've seen over the last 2 years. 2nd round picks traded two years in a row to fill the 4th line C position, while simultaneously letting JVR, Bozak, Komarov, etc walk for nothing.

Do that for a couple more years, and we'll have a decimated farm system with limited cheap internal options to help us manage our cap while Matthews/Marner/Nylander are all on their big contracts.

I wonder how Chicago/Boston/etc let assets walk, yet remained contenders for so-long

I disagree about our farm system being decimated soon. We have Kapanen, Johnsson, Hyman, Brown as the promoted prospect forwards. We still have 2 serious prospects Bracco + Grundstrom + couple long-shots Timashov/Korkshov/etc, and these guys aren't needed for another 2-3 years (When we run into cap issues). In those 2-3 years, we will have drafted the next batch of forward prospects who won't be needed for another 2-3 years after that (4-6 years from now). Also, we needed a high-end 4C for the playoffs (Boyle and Plekanec played big roles in the playoffs). Good news though, we have Aaltonen and Lindholm ready for the 4C position, with Gauthier being a long-shot so we don't need to trade away assets for a temporary player. I think the BIGGEST thing we should be stressing when it comes having internal options, is that they focus on BPA during the draft and not anything else. Stick to the 2015-type draft and we'll be good long-term no matter what. Also, our Marlies D-core is the strongest it's been in so-long (Dubas said this), so that's a bright spot with Dermott/Lilijegren/Borgman/Rosen being serious future D assets.

Also disagree about the JVR/Bozak walking thing. If we traded them away for assets, what did you expect us to do for the playoffs? Not be serious about the playoffs? That's the cost of being serious about playoffs. Playoff teams always keep their expiring UFAs as their own rentals while also adding rentals. So how do playoff teams sometimes get extra draft picks? They trade away players because of cap-space issues, which then allow them to collect futures. We'll be doing that soon when we run into cap-issues.

 

[613Leafer]

I wonder how Chicago/Boston/etc let assets walk, yet remained contenders for so-long

Are you kidding?

Chicago sold off Byfgulien, Ladd, Versteeg, Sharp, Saad, Brouwer, Bolland, etc rather than lose them for nothing. They didn't lose a single player of JVRs calibre to free agency in their ~10 year run. Theyre the very definition of a franchise that didn't let guys walk in free agency.

Boston? That's a slightly better example, though they did sell Lucic before he hit free agency. Their window didn't last as long though, and only reason for their resurgence is they drafted Pastrnak, McAvoy, and Debrusk with mid/late 1sts three years in a row. Odds of that happening to save your franchise are very very low. Our mid/late 1sts from the last 10-12 years are Tlusty, Gauthier, Biggs, Percy, and Liljegren.

 

[4thline]

Are you kidding?

Chicago sold off Byfgulien, Ladd, Versteeg, Sharp, Saad, Brouwer, Bolland, etc rather than lose them for nothing.

They sold them off *with term/ as RFAs* *in the off season* *when they forced to by the cap. Very different than deliberately sabotaging a competitive team at the deadline. They kept 77 point (team leading) Martin Havlat and let him walk after the 09 run.

 

[Trapper]

They sold them off *with term/ as RFAs* *in the off season* *when they forced to by the cap. Very different than deliberately sabotaging a competitive team at the deadline. They kept 77 point (team leading) Martin Havlat and let him walk after the 09 run.

They also had an abundance of players they could A) sell off and B) keep one or two.
Look at the list. Chicago and Boston were also well established with a successful vet core.
We only have one or 2 guys (JVR/Gardiner) worth anything. Bozak/Carrick/Komarov/etc aren't fetching you anything. We have about 2 guys and a lack of center depth in the organization. We need more D around the age of Dermott developing. No vet core. Limited success. Year 3 basically of the Matthews draft. We aren't in a position to lose what limited assets we have for free.

 

[hotpaws]

I'm all for asset mgmt but it's absurd to think we should have been selling at the deadline when we were in the position we were in . Leo wasn't going to return much , Bozak wasn't going to return some huge haul and would have left a hole in our lineup regardless of how people view him and JVR was a key component to our very successful 1st pp unit .

The time to trade JvR was last off season and they tried unsuccessfully . People have to remember the price for rentals usually rises at the t/d so chances are we weren't going to get the same value in futures when there's much less pressure to do a deal than at the t/d where teams are looking to add pieces for a playoff run .

Some are also ignoring the responsibility to the team has to it's fans , both those that pay exorbitant ticket prices as well as those that tune in and drive ratings . So while it's easy to now say we should have been sellers at the t/d after we already know we lost in the first rd , it's not so easy to sell it to the fan base or even to the remaining players before the season even ended .

The only move i haven't liked was dealing a 2nd for Pleks , it just felt like we made a move for a move's sake and to appease Babs after the rumored deal for McD didn't get done . Last years trade for Boyle was fine since we fighting for a playoff spot and he was an major upgrade on what we had .