Prediction Contest: What will Kyle Dubas' first "Moneyball" type move and who is untouchable?

[Trapper]

I'm all for asset mgmt but it's absurd to think we should have been selling at the deadline when we were in the position we were in . Leo wasn't going to return much , Bozak wasn't going to return some huge haul and would have left a hole in our lineup regardless of how people view him and JVR was a key component to our very successful 1st pp unit .

The time to trade JvR was last off season and they tried unsuccessfully . People have to remember the price for rentals usually rises at the t/d so chances are we weren't going to get the same value in futures when there's much less pressure to do a deal than at the t/d where teams are looking to add pieces for a playoff run .

Some are also ignoring the responsibility to the team has to it's fans , both those that pay exorbitant ticket prices as well as those that tune in and drive ratings . So while it's easy to now say we should have been sellers at the t/d after we already know we lost in the first rd , it's not so easy to sell it to the fan base or even to the remaining players before the season even ended .

The only move i haven't liked was dealing a 2nd for Pleks , it just felt like we made a move for a move's sake and to appease Babs after the rumored deal for McD didn't get done . Last years trade for Boyle was fine since we fighting for a playoff spot and he was an major upgrade on what we had .

We might get a good idea of a JVR summer return if the Habs deal Patches this summer.
We don't know the offers for JVR. If I say I will only trade him for a top 4 D, then yes, you just might have no success. However what is not available at the time, might be available later if you have the assets. Now as it stands, the only real tradable assets this organization has is Gardiner and a 1st. If you don't want to move Kadri/Nylander/whatever, options are limited. Asset management is like money in the bank. You may not spend your $100.00 today but maybe you find that deal in 6 months to a year later. We don't have an abundance of things to be traded. Losing a 30 goal scorer was not smart no matter how you slice it. I'm sure Florida fans feel the same way. Now we wait to see if Dubas re-signs him.

 

[ottomaddox]

I expect better asset management than what we've seen over the last 2 years. 2nd round picks traded two years in a row to fill the 4th line C position, while simultaneously letting JVR, Bozak, Komarov, etc walk for nothing.

Do that for a couple more years, and we'll have a decimated farm system with limited cheap internal options to help us manage our cap while Matthews/Marner/Nylander are all on their big contracts.

I don't know our current draft status. Do we have no 2nd round pick this year? Did we have no 2nd round pick last year? I don't think our farm system is or will be decimated.

I would like to believe that we are a healthy distance away from the no cap era/JFJ/Quinn/Burke days when we had no prospects.

 

[diceman934]

I don't know our current draft status. Do we have no 2nd round pick this year? Did we have no 2nd round pick last year? I don't think our farm system is or will be decimated.

I would like to believe that we are a healthy distance away from the no cap era/JFJ/Quinn/Burke days when we had no prospects.

We still have a second round pick and we had a second round pick last year as well. We traded away extra picks.
JFK was a very good drafter it was Leafs ownership that was pushing trades and would not allow him to keep pucks etc as they wanted to win now.

 

[Gary Nylund]

We might get a good idea of a JVR summer return if the Habs deal Patches this summer.
We don't know the offers for JVR. If I say I will only trade him for a top 4 D, then yes, you just might have no success. However what is not available at the time, might be available later if you have the assets. Now as it stands, the only real tradable assets this organization has is Gardiner and a 1st. If you don't want to move Kadri/Nylander/whatever, options are limited. Asset management is like money in the bank. You may not spend your $100.00 today but maybe you find that deal in 6 months to a year later. We don't have an abundance of things to be traded. Losing a 30 goal scorer was not smart no matter how you slice it. I'm sure Florida fans feel the same way. Now we wait to see if Dubas re-signs him.

Nicely put. I've read so many posts over the last year or two along the lines of "you don't make a trade if it makes the team worse" or "I would trade JVR if we get a top 4 Dman back" and so on and so on. It's nothing more than impatience, period. A trade doesn't have to being back anything today to be a wise move and just amazed by how impatient some people are.

 

[hotpaws]

We might get a good idea of a JVR summer return if the Habs deal Patches this summer.
We don't know the offers for JVR. If I say I will only trade him for a top 4 D, then yes, you just might have no success. However what is not available at the time, might be available later if you have the assets. Now as it stands, the only real tradable assets this organization has is Gardiner and a 1st. If you don't want to move Kadri/Nylander/whatever, options are limited. Asset management is like money in the bank. You may not spend your $100.00 today but maybe you find that deal in 6 months to a year later. We don't have an abundance of things to be traded. Losing a 30 goal scorer was not smart no matter how you slice it. I'm sure Florida fans feel the same way. Now we wait to see if Dubas re-signs him.

as i said , i'm all for assets mgmt but we can't ignore the situation the team was in just because we know in hindsight we got knocked out in the first rd

last season was our first playoff appearance during full season in over a decade so it's understandable they weren't going to weaken the team going into this season just to gamble they'd be in a position to add a needed piece some time during the season with the assets acquired (whatever they may have been)

and the Florida fans would have been much happier keeping the frwds (which they lost due to the owner ordering Tallon to cut salary) to help them make the playoffs

also no one knew how this season would turned out so acting like we were a lock to make the playoffs which would have enabled us to deal our pending ufa's last year without hurting our playoff chances is foolish

 

[Menzinger]

Re asset management issue. Certainly the traditional thought would be you can’t trade UFAs when heading into the playoffs, but I’d wonder if somebody like Dubas May have done something differently.

Don’t trade a 2nd for Plek, maybe move 1-2 of the UFAs and that would have given the Leafs 2-3 extra picks/prospects they could have used to get that much needed D man this offseason.

 

[ottomaddox]

We still have a second round pick and we had a second round pick last year as well. We traded away extra picks.
JFK was a very good drafter it was Leafs ownership that was pushing trades and would not allow him to keep pucks etc as they wanted to win now.

I am not going to say anything about the quality of JFJ's drafting, but he did try and try again to improve our goaltending. First a trade for Raycroft (Rask), and then Toskala with Mark Bell (1st and 2nd).

Not so quality.

 

[Trapper]

Nicely put. I've read so many posts over the last year or two along the lines of "you don't make a trade if it makes the team worse" or "I would trade JVR if we get a top 4 Dman back" and so on and so on. It's nothing more than impatience, period. A trade doesn't have to being back anything today to be a wise move and just amazed by how impatient some people are.

All of a sudden, Carolina is open for business (as much as you can believe from the report). With possible D such as Slavin,Pesce,Hanifin,Faulk,etc. there may be options that weren't there before. Come summer time and the draft, there may be even more options like a Hamilton available or what have you. If you can't make a trade today, you should be prepared if one is available tomorrow. Last season doesn't care. Trying to win the Cup every year is great, staying relevant and strong for years to do so is the goal. I just can't understand the moving JVR makes us worse but somehow we aren't worse when a 30 goal scorer walks. Because, cap space or something. I guess you can sign Bozak/Polak for the JVR cap space if you like.

Go through this team:
Matthews/Marner/Nylander - 99.99% to 100% of people don't want them traded. Scratch that.
Kadri/Rielly/Dermott - who wants to use them for trade assets?
Marleau - not being traded.
Hyman/Brown/Kappy/Johnsson/Borgman/Grundstrom - required support players. Tradeable sure, for a Hyman/Brown return. Don't have the return power of a Tampa trading Drouin.
Leivo/Carrick - falling farther and farther down the depth chart. Little to no value.

Bozak/Komarov/Polak/Moore/Hainsey - yearly UFA fixes. Fine as own rentals.

JVR- 30 goal scorer. Out.
That brings us to Gardiner/Zaitsev. One is signed long term, the other is a UFA in one year. Probably a market to some degree for a RHD but we kind of really need that.
1st round pick in 2018.

You have to give to get. You need assets for drafting and assets for trading. It wasn't tanking to move the one player of value for last year. It wasn't sending any bad message in the summer to give an full time opportunity to Leivo/Kappy/Johnsson.

 

[613Leafer]

Re asset management issue. Certainly the traditional thought would be you can’t trade UFAs when heading into the playoffs, but I’d wonder if somebody like Dubas May have done something differently.

Don’t trade a 2nd for Plek, maybe move 1-2 of the UFAs and that would have given the Leafs 2-3 extra picks/prospects they could have used to get that much needed D man this offseason.

I think that's an avoidable situation though. Take Gardiner for example, our options aren't limited to trading him at the deadline, losing him for nothing, or re-signing him long-term.

We can trade him this summer. His value is as high as it's ever been, so we'd get a very good return for him. It also gives us plenty of time to find either a stop-gap or long-term replacement in UFA or trade this summer.

I think it's good to get ahead of these situations. Figure it out the summer before a player hits free agency. Either trade them that summer and adjust your roster accordingly, or re-sign them long-term. Avoid having valuable players sit as pending UFAs on your roster going into the season (doesn't really matter for the Komarov calibre players, but for the JVR/Bozak ones, that's a lot of value to see walk out the door).

 

[Menzinger]

I think that's an avoidable situation though. Take Gardiner for example, our options aren't limited to trading him at the deadline, losing him for nothing, or re-signing him long-term.

We can trade him this summer. His value is as high as it's ever been, so we'd get a very good return for him. It also gives us plenty of time to find either a stop-gap or long-term replacement in UFA or trade this summer.

I think it's good to get ahead of these situations. Figure it out the summer before a player hits free agency. Either trade them that summer and adjust your roster accordingly, or re-sign them long-term. Avoid having valuable players sit as pending UFAs on your roster going into the season (doesn't really matter for the Komarov calibre players, but for the JVR/Bozak ones, that's a lot of value to see walk out the door).

If Dubas doesn’t want to resign Gardiner to an expensive new contract I think there’s a high chance he trades him between now and the TDL.

 

[Gary Nylund]

also no one knew how this season would turned out so acting like we were a lock to make the playoffs which would have enabled us to deal our pending ufa's last year without hurting our playoff chances is foolish

This makes some sense. Trade JVR in the summer when we're not sure we make the playoffs without him - maybe not a chance we want to take. On the other hand, maybe it's the job of our management team to assess somewhat accurately how good our team is and make their decisions accordingly?

 

[Brock Radunske]

If Dubas doesn’t want to resign Gardiner to an expensive new contract I think there’s a high chance he trades him between now and the TDL.

Agreed.
I like Gardiner @4mil but he's defensive miscues can't happen if he's making 5-6 mil

 

[Trapper]

This makes some sense. Trade JVR in the summer when we're not sure we make the playoffs without him - maybe not a chance we want to take. On the other hand, maybe it's the job of our management team to assess somewhat accurately how good our team is and make their decisions accordingly?

I want a GM that runs it with his head (and like a business) in the summer. Making the decisions to move on from those not in the plans and basically setting the roster for the upcoming season. Then he can be a fan during the season. If you need a little help at the deadline (Babcock needs a specialty PK player) you can look at that for a 4th round pick but on average try to avoid the deadline all together. A specialty only player is fine for the playoffs as a cheap add. I generally don't like in season trades unless it's too good to be true. I like having business taken care of to focus on the season.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Agreed.
I like Gardiner @4mil but he's defensive miscues can't happen if he's making 5-6 mil

If Leafs get someone to play with Rielly I would like to see a full season of Gardiner and Hainsey on the second pairing. I think they would dominant.

Another poster made a very good point about how hard it is to play with Zaitsev as he never makes himself open for the easy pass from his defensive partner. As a result I think some of those gafs would disappear with Hainsey playing very defensively and letting Gardiner drive the offense.

 

[Brock Radunske]

If Leafs get someone to play with Rielly I would like to see a full season of Gardiner and Hainsey on the second pairing. I think they would dominant.

Another poster made a very good point about how hard it is to play with Zaitsev as he never makes himself open for the easy pass from his defensive partner. As a result I think some of those gafs would disappear with Hainsey playing very defensively and letting Gardiner drive the offense.

Jesus Murphy...don't even get me started on Zaitsev...

 

[The CyNick]

We might get a good idea of a JVR summer return if the Habs deal Patches this summer.
We don't know the offers for JVR. If I say I will only trade him for a top 4 D, then yes, you just might have no success. However what is not available at the time, might be available later if you have the assets. Now as it stands, the only real tradable assets this organization has is Gardiner and a 1st. If you don't want to move Kadri/Nylander/whatever, options are limited. Asset management is like money in the bank. You may not spend your $100.00 today but maybe you find that deal in 6 months to a year later. We don't have an abundance of things to be traded. Losing a 30 goal scorer was not smart no matter how you slice it. I'm sure Florida fans feel the same way. Now we wait to see if Dubas re-signs him.

We know the Isles passed on JVR in favor of a 2nd round pick.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Jesus Murphy...don't even get me started on Zaitsev...

Ya he gets a deer in the headlights look this year when under pressure or when his own team has the puck lol...

When under pressure he panicks and sends the puck around the boards behind the net which always gets picked off by the other teams defenders at the blue line.

 

[Brock Radunske]

Ya he gets a deer in the headlights look this year when under pressure or when his own team has the puck lol...

When under pressure he panicks and sends the puck around the boards behind the net which always gets picked off by the other teams defenders at the blue line.

Only 6 more years...

 

[Ziggdiezan]

We know the Isles passed on JVR in favor of a 2nd round pick.

I've heard many rumors about the Hamonic offer. I've heard JVR+2nd was the offer which I think makes more sense. No way a team would value JVR less than a 2nd. Isles could have flipped him for a late first very easily at the point of the hypothetical trade.

 

[Menzinger]

We know the Isles passed on JVR in favor of a 2nd round pick.

Or more likely valued moving their guy out to the West the most.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Only 6 more years...

I think (hope) he bounces back next year. Confidence seemed really low and he just had a kid. Maybe not training normally. Who knows

 

[Clark4Ever]

Agreed.
I like Gardiner @4mil but he's defensive miscues can't happen if he's making 5-6 mil

There's no chance he'll accept that based on the numbers he's put up.

If we aren't prepared to offer him market value, we might as well move him for assets.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

This makes some sense. Trade JVR in the summer when we're not sure we make the playoffs without him - maybe not a chance we want to take. On the other hand, maybe it's the job of our management team to assess somewhat accurately how good our team is and make their decisions accordingly?

If Kadri is never suspended, Matthews plays to his ability and Andersen plays solid and we make the second round I doubt anyone complains. It's easy to look back and say these were the wrong decisions but selling those assets would have made us a worse team and there is something to be said about creating a culture of winning.

 

[Trapper]

We know the Isles passed on JVR in favor of a 2nd round pick.

Well the deal was a 1st + 2 2nds. That's what Calgary spent.
Did they pass or did we? At the same time, if you have a few viable suitors, why not send the player to the other Conference.

 

[Brock Radunske]

There's no chance he'll accept that based on the numbers he's put up.

If we aren't prepared to offer him market value, we might as well move him for assets.

Yeh that's exactly my point.
I can handle his gaffs at his current price point but there is no way they should invest $6 mil for him.
I think he's likely moved at the draft.