Prediction Contest: What will Kyle Dubas' first "Moneyball" type move and who is untouchable?

[Gabriel426]

That was in the case of the Athletics, where their budget dictated a necessity to identify market inefficiencies.

When the Red Sox adopted it, it was simply to find a way to beat the Yankees and win a world series. Now, the majority of teams in the MLB practice what the premise of moneyball is, with the franchise that is currently best at it being Houston.

The NHL is still so archaic that the premise actually seems new.

Different games and I think there is still a learning curve.
Baseball have always been about stats, lefty vs righty, ground ball ratio, fly ball ratio, the shift....
To me, analytics are best used in sports where you can constantly make changes, like Baseball and Football.
In sports like basketball, soccer and hockey, when the game is back and forth, it is a bit different to do.
I think there are under value and over value players but it is not as easy to identify them with just stats.
You look at Karlsson in hockey or Salah at soccer. Is this season their outliner season or are they outliners, or are they just talented players given opportunities to play, or they are playing in the right systems for them?

My friend(who didn't know anything about baseball) said it best after watching the Moneyball movie, it is a movie about looking and doing things differently in order to get results.

 

[Apotheosis]

Different games and I think there is still a learning curve.
Baseball have always been about stats, lefty vs righty, ground ball ratio, fly ball ratio, the shift....
To me, analytics are best used in sports where you can constantly make changes, like Baseball and Football.
In sports like basketball, soccer and hockey, when the game is back and forth, it is a bit different to do.
I think there are under value and over value players but it is not as easy to identify them with just stats.
You look at Karlsson in hockey or Salah at soccer. Is this season their outliner season or are they outliners, or are they just talented players given opportunities to play, or they are playing in the right systems for them?

My friend(who didn't know anything about baseball) said it best after watching the Moneyball movie, it is a movie about looking and doing things differently in order to get results.

I used to think the same, but after delving in to it, I think the opposite. There's reason to believe Salah's season isn't an outlier. For one, defence's are trash in the PL. When delving in to underlying stats, Salah generates enough chances both for himself and teammates that his xG (expected goals from his own play) is right around his current stat line goals wise. When extrapolating it for hockey, it actually makes just as much sense, since it is even more back and forth and you have a lot more numbers to put in.

 

[Apotheosis]

I mean...Andreas Johnsson (or Kasperi Kapanen or Carl Grundstrom or Pierre Engvall or..) could be William Karlsson or Jonathan Marchessault. Said player does not have to come from another organization. He simply needs to be given the opportunity to play 18+ minutes a night.

Also, a better example of a "money puck" player would be Colin Miller, who showed great possession statistics despite his surface numbers being underwhelming.

Further, "money puck" aren't always cheap. That's a misnomer. A player can be considered a market inefficiency if they are available because they are deemed unworthy of their contract (i.e. James Neal and David Perron).

If you want to be technical, AJ's xGF since he came to the Leafs was top 3 and at one time the best on the team. So don't be surprised if he ends up having a Marchessault type surge. He's talented enough for it.

 

[Gabriel426]

I used to think the same, but after delving in to it, I think the opposite. There's reason to believe Salah's season isn't an outlier. For one, defence's are trash in the PL. When delving in to underlying stats, Salah generates enough chances both for himself and teammates that his xG (expected goals from his own play) is right around his current stat line goals wise. When extrapolating it for hockey, it actually makes just as much sense, since it is even more back and forth and you have a lot more numbers to put in.

Like I said earlier, it is so tough to distinguish the differences between someone just having an outliner season or he finally gets it and put it together as well as given play time.

 

[Gabriel426]

And it was also largely BS. And the A's didn't win anything, so it's really a movie pumping up analytics, ignoring certain realities, and then ignoring that it wasn't even all that successful in the end.

The As did win division titles just not anything in the playoffs.

 

[MR4]

Like I said earlier, it is so tough to distinguish the differences between someone just having an outliner season or he finally gets it and put it together as well as given play time.

Lol he just explained why Salah is likely a breakout season, vs outlier, his expected stats using advanced stats are close to his season stats. With VGK Karlsson, it's most definitely an outlier as the advanced stats show he's due for major regression, most notably in his goal scoring, but still could be called a breakout season as he's now an expected top 6 forward. It's not as hard to distinguish when you look into the advanced stats behind their season and whether it supports a repeat next season or not

 

[Gabriel426]

Lol he just explained why Salah is likely a breakout season, vs outlier, his expected stats using advanced stats are close to his season stats. With VGK Karlsson, it's most definitely an outlier as the advanced stats show he's due for major regression, most notably in his goal scoring, but still could be called a breakout season as he's now an expected top 6 forward. It's not as hard to distinguish when you look into the advanced stats behind their season and whether it supports a repeat next season or not

I will wait for another season before making judgements. Kind of how Jose and EE back when they first started with the he Jays.

 

[Apotheosis]

I will wait for another season before making judgements. Kind of how Jose and EE back when they first started with the he Jays.

Except they had great WrC+ across the board and they showed to sustain that. It's for the same reason you can't expect William Karlsson to do the same he did this season goals wise unless he magically shoots 20+ percent again compared to multiple seasons of what was his old career average.

 

[Gabriel426]

Except they had great WrC+ across the board and they showed to sustain that. It's for the same reason you can't expect William Karlsson to do the same he did this season goals wise unless he magically shoots 20+ percent again compared to multiple seasons of what was his old career average.

There will always be underlining numbers supporting that, but for soccer, just seen too many one season wonder strikers. Hope Salah will continue though, as I am a Pool fan.

 

[Superstar]

if the insinuation is that oldschool means antiquated and obsolete, the guy that Chiarelli traded Taylor Hall to is actually older and more experienced than him. There are always two GMs involved in trades. And I'm pretty sure it's actually Larsson who is the analytics darling anyway, so in this example it would be Dubas trading the overpriced 'star' for the underrated Larsson who the analytics show has a larger positive impact on his shifts than those silly oldshool GMs realize.

Don't think Larsson is the analytics darling...Hall is...Hall was in on about 35% of Edmonton's scoring in those lean years...whenever he was off the ice, the Oilers were alot worse...Hall is carrying the Devils in a similar fashion, main difference is that the Devils could defend...Hall has 40 plus more points than the second highest scorer on his team (Hischier), which is ridiculous! There is no one on this Leafs team who could carry a team the way Hall did, no surprise he's a Hart Trophy candidate this year.

McDavid and Hall would have been the Oilers 200 point dynamic duo...Hall for Larsson (who is only a 20 point defensive dman) was one of the worst trades in the last few decades...too bad for Chiarelli and the Oilers...I thought it was a bad trade when he first made it...looks even worse now...he wanted a quick fix...sacrificed Hall to sign Lucic to a terrible contract considering his production...time passed by Chiarelli...he wanted to turn the Oilers into his old Boston Bruins team (not the current one that plays with speed)...Lucic can't play with McDavid because he can't skate...and now even Chiarelli has admitted the Oilers need more speed and skill. He inherited a wealth of riches, and turned the Oilers into a one-line team...that's old school for you...and let's not forget he traded a 1st (that turned into Barzal) and a 2nd for one of the biggest busts in recent drafts in Griffin Reinhart.

 

[Rumpy]

Zito Mulder Hudson and Harang Weren’t even mentioned in the movie.

It’s like taking the Leafs and doing a movie without Marner Rielly Matthews and Nylander to fit your narrative of how great of a coach Mike Babcock is for getting the leafs back to the playoffs.

Moneyball was a fun movie to watch but it’s one of the worst movies of all time for construing a false narrative to millions of people that for the most part isn’t true.

Tmrw I can’t wait to wake up and read the genious of the first NHL player that decided training in the off season was revolutionary as opposed to drinking 30 beer a day.

 

[Menzinger]

Don't think Larsson is the analytics darling...Hall is...Hall was in on about 35% of Edmonton's scoring in those lean years...whenever he was off the ice, the Oilers were alot worse...Hall is carrying the Devils in a similar fashion, main difference is that the Devils could defend...Hall has 40 plus more points than the second highest scorer on his team (Hischier), which is ridiculous! There is no one on this Leafs team who could carry a team the way Hall did, no surprise he's a Hart Trophy candidate this year.

McDavid and Hall would have been the Oilers 200 point dynamic duo...Hall for Larsson (who is only a 20 point defensive dman) was one of the worst trades in the last few decades...too bad for Chiarelli and the Oilers...I thought it was a bad trade when he first made it...looks even worse now...he wanted a quick fix...sacrificed Hall to sign Lucic to a terrible contract considering his production...time passed by Chiarelli...he wanted to turn the Oilers into his old Boston Bruins team (not the current one that plays with speed)...Lucic can't play with McDavid because he can't skate...and now even Chiarelli has admitted the Oilers need more speed and skill. He inherited a wealth of riches, and turned the Oilers into a one-line team...that's old school for you...and let's not forget he traded a 1st (that turned into Barzal) and a 2nd for one of the biggest busts in recent drafts in Griffin Reinhart.

The hockey analytics community was about 100% against the Hall trade. The stats definitely show Larsson to be a decent player but nowhere near as impactful as Hall is/can be.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Zito Mulder Hudson and Harang Weren’t even mentioned in the movie.

It’s like taking the Leafs and doing a movie without Marner Rielly Matthews and Nylander to fit your narrative of how great of a coach Mike Babcock is for getting the leafs back to the playoffs.

Moneyball was a fun movie to watch but it’s one of the worst movies of all time for construing a false narrative to millions of people that for the most part isn’t true.

Tmrw I can’t wait to wake up and read the genious of the first NHL player that decided training in the off season was revolutionary as opposed to drinking 30 beer a day.

The movie has most certainly led a myriad of people astray. Somehow its convinced them that "moneyball" was\is exclusive to the A's and Bill Beane, and did not spread to what now is every franchise. Also, apparently, it can only be used by low budget teams, and is exclusive to cheap players.

Also hilarious that the Red Sox, who didn't win a world series for decades until Theo Espstein's front office was put in place (including the father of advanced baseball analytics, Bill James). False narratives indeed.

That's what I love about hockey though. Every time I have a conversation, I feel like I'm talking to Dave Stewart.

 

[ottomaddox]

 

[Leafs87]

It’s not what hell do but what he won’t do. The chances of getting Karlsson/Doughty/Tavares plummeted (as low as they were to begin with)

I am happy with this

 

[The CyNick]

Zito Mulder Hudson and Harang Weren’t even mentioned in the movie.

It’s like taking the Leafs and doing a movie without Marner Rielly Matthews and Nylander to fit your narrative of how great of a coach Mike Babcock is for getting the leafs back to the playoffs.

Moneyball was a fun movie to watch but it’s one of the worst movies of all time for construing a false narrative to millions of people that for the most part isn’t true.

Tmrw I can’t wait to wake up and read the genious of the first NHL player that decided training in the off season was revolutionary as opposed to drinking 30 beer a day.

Exactly this.

The movie made it out that the fat kid in the movie found these no name players and magically made them a solid team.

The reality was they had the best crop of young arms to come up in baseball in many many years, and that's why they were good. Had very little to do with what was portrayed in the movie.

As for the Sox and their ties to Moneyball. It's not like they were a welfare team. They spent huge and won.

This whole analytics craze is just that. It still comes down to being able to predict which players will perform better than others. No analytics successfully do that and likely never will.

 

[DarkKnight]

The Moneyball analogy makes zero sense, practically and philosophically.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Exactly this.

The movie made it out that the fat kid in the movie found these no name players and magically made them a solid team.

The reality was they had the best crop of young arms to come up in baseball in many many years, and that's why they were good. Had very little to do with what was portrayed in the movie.

As for the Sox and their ties to Moneyball. It's not like they were a welfare team. They spent huge and won.

This whole analytics craze is just that. It still comes down to being able to predict which players will perform better than others. No analytics successfully do that and likely never will.

I agree that the comparison across the two sports, along with the term "moneypuck", is asinine.

 

[The CyNick]

I agree that the comparison across the two sports, along with the term "moneypuck", is asinine.

Moneyball doesn't even work in baseball. Primarily what works is good drafting and spending a whack of dough.

 

[ottomaddox]

The Moneyball analogy makes zero sense, practically and philosophically.

Which Philosophical discipline best applies: Plato or Michel Foucault?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Moneyball doesn't even work in baseball. Primarily what works is good drafting and spending a whack of dough.

You're absolutely correct (in a couldn't be anymore wrong kind of way).

 

[Discoverer]

Moneyball doesn't even work in baseball. Primarily what works is good drafting and spending a whack of dough.

Moneyball "doesn't work in baseball" because literally every team in the league is now employing the same strategies now... because those strategies DID work and continue to work today, so it's not the same advantage it used to be. The A's were impressive because they were able to be so successful without spending money. They're a great example of advanced statistical analysis making up for an inability to simply outspend opponents (like, say, the types of financial constraints you might see in a league with a salary cap or something like that).

Spending a bunch of money always helps. What actually works is spending a whack of dough on the right players.

 

[Menzinger]

The problem is folks interpret “Moneyball” as being an instant formula for a championship - which it isn’t/wasn’t. It’s just about giving your team an advantage over those which choose to ignore it.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

The problem is folks misinterpret “Moneyball”.

Precisely.

 

[ottomaddox]

Ok so based on the lack of accuracy in the movie, baseball's recent history, and what you know about building a championship team what will be Dubas' first move? Tavares and Carlson? Can we expect a risk or two? Does he have the b@##s to trade 1 of the big 3? Kadri? Gardiner?