Speculation: What top 4D could Anders Lee return?

[Shwabeal]

Yes, that's exactly what I've been saying. Anders Lee has been playing his own game of hockey.

Guys like Hornqvist, JVR, Simmonds do not camp out in front of the net and capitalize on rebounds. All other so-called "power forwards" are imposters. There is but one power forward in the NHL since 1967 and his name is Anders Lee.

I'm CodeE and I fully and completely endorse this strawman.

What other conclusion can one draw from you saying that you can't compare his shooting percentage to anyone since 1967? I'm honestly curious, not trying to be an ass. I must not be understanding your stance on this issue apparently.

 

[CodeE]

What other conclusion can one draw from you saying that you can't compare his shooting percentage to anyone since 1967? I'm honestly curious, not trying to be an ass. I must not be understanding your stance on this issue apparently.

You want me to type the argument I've made again so you can ignore it again? No way Jose. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me!

 

[Shwabeal]

You want me to type the argument I've made again so you can ignore it again? No way Jose. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me!

I mean, a rundown would suffice. I just want to know why the stats Easton posted can't be used to evaluate Anders Lee and the potential of regression? That's all.

 

[CodeE]

I mean, a rundown would suffice. I just want to know why the stats Easton posted can't be used to evaluate Anders Lee and the potential of regression? That's all.

It's all here, I promise. In the interest of your mental health, I even redacted the name of that center from Tampa.

Yes, it was all proven statistically incorrect because he was comparing Lee's shooting percentages with more skilled players ([redacted] initially, now with Tarasenko) who play a different style of hockey. Like comparing Erik Karlsson's numbers to Colton Parayko's without taking into consideration that one is really good at quarterbacking the power play and the other at leading the penalty kill. So comparing Lee's numbers to [redacted], or "everyone else in the NHL" as Easton did, is a faulty comparison because - and this was literally addressed in the first post after Easton - Lee's style of play gets more goals and a better shooting percentage.

Much in the same way if you look at NBA stats, the top 10 leaders in Field Goal Percentage (that's % of baskets made/shots taken) are all Power Forwards and Centers.

2017-18 Regular Season NBA Player Stats and League Leaders - Scoring Per Game - National Basketball Association - ESPN

You wouldn't directly compare DeAndre Jordan to Russell Westbrook, you wouldn't directly compare Erik Karlsson to Colton Parayko, so why lump Anders Lee in with playmakers and snipers as "evidence" his goal numbers will drop?

 

[Shwabeal]

It's all here, I promise. In the interest of your mental health, I even redacted the name of that center from Tampa.

So you really are ignoring the fact that he was compared to every player, including other power forwards? I really don't understand how you have fixated on the name Stamkos so much. His name is mentioned but so are others and what stands out is that there are no guys that play like Lee that have been able to sustain that level either. Here is the second half of Easton's post that give historical context to Lee's numbers.

For those who want some context for those shooting percentage numbers, here it is:

The number of players who can sustain an 18.5% shooting percentage, or what Lee has averaged the last two years, is absurdly small. Only 29 players since the 1967 expansion have done it (minimum 70 goals and 160 games played), and 23 of them never played a game after 1995. None are currently playing.

There are six active players with at least 70 career goals (min 160 games played) who have a career shooting percentage above 15%: Byron (18.0%), Stamkos (16.7%), Marchand (15.8%), Henrique (15.5%), Stone (15.5%), and Hudler (15.0%). Lee ranks 11th on that list at 14.6% for his career.

If you sort younger, active players (age 33 or less) by career goals scored, there are 94 forwards meeting the criteria with 175+ career goals...a number Lee should almost certainly reach by that age. Stamkos and Marchand are the only two on the list with a career shooting percentage above 14.8% which means 98% of the group is below that number...with 96% being below 14.6%, and 89% being below 13.8%. The median value for this group of younger prolific goal scorers is 12.0%, which is why I used that number above. Approximately 78% of the group is above the average forward shooting percentage of 10.8%.

The moral of the story is that prolific goal scorers (even elite ones) have a very hard time sustaining 14.6%+ shooting percentages over the long haul in the modern NHL, with most coming in decidedly lower than that. Maybe Lee is one of the select few that bucks the trend, but I hope my team isn't banking on it.

As Easton says at the end, "Maybe Lee is one of the select few that bucks the trend, but I hope my team isn't banking on it." He's not saying that it is a guarantee that he will regress. He laid out cause for concern, that's it.

I really don't know why I've spent so much time trying to get you to just read (and comprehend) and not be so close minded cause I really don't give a shit, but here we are.

 

[SFKingshomer]

Jake Muzzin

 

[boredmale]

I have always stated I believe left wings don't hold as much value as other positions and that goes with Lee. Just looking at the UFA market and trade possibilities for left wings this summer, it would be hard to get the value Lee is worth to the team in a trade. Only way I can see Islanders get full trade value would be if a team pinpoints Lee's skills are exactly what their team needs rather then just signing/trading for the best LW on the market. In terms of what I would view as Lee's skills, the first would be the obvious standing infront of the net while the second one would be corner work

 

[CodeE]

So you really are ignoring the fact that he was compared to every player, including other power forwards? I really don't understand how you have fixated on the name Stamkos so much. His name is mentioned but so are others and what stands out is that there are no guys that play like Lee that have been able to sustain that level either. Here is the second half of Easton's post that give historical context to Lee's numbers.

As Easton says at the end, "Maybe Lee is one of the select few that bucks the trend, but I hope my team isn't banking on it." He's not saying that it is a guarantee that he will regress. He laid out cause for concern, that's it.

I really don't know why I've spent so much time trying to get you to just read (and comprehend) and not be so close minded cause I really don't give a ****, but here we are.

Okay, you've laid out your cause for concern. It's duly noted.

Now can you leave this thread and go scream at Golden Knight fans that William Karlsson's 23.4 shooting % is unsustainable? Make sure to mention you know he's going to get worse and that's a fact.

 

[Colt55]

These facts and statistics, they're coming at me like crazy!

Actually that was an opinion that i based of statistics.

Wow your really confused with opinion and facts. You should probably take a few online courses maybe brush up on your vocab

 

[CodeE]

Actually that was an opinion that i based of statistics.

Wow your really confused with opinion and facts. You should probably take a few online courses maybe brush up on your vocab

You know of any courses that could help me with the difference between "your really confused" and "you're really confused"?

 

[seabass45]

Jake Muzzin

Into it. Also into the Brodie offer. Just get us a capable middle pair LD and I'm fine with it.

 

[Shwabeal]

Okay, you've laid out your cause for concern. It's duly noted.

Now can you leave this thread and go scream at Blue Jacket (nice edit ) fans that William Karlsson's 23.4 shooting % is unsustainable? Make sure to mention you know he's going to get worse and that's a fact.

Keep grasping to the bolded as if that's been said. "Make sure to mention you know he's going to produce at the same level and that's a fact." Am I doing this right? The word might has been used many times regarding this, including by me. I've also said I love Lee as a player and would welcome him on the Blues. I just wouldn't want to pay him like he's going to consistently score 35+ goals and I certainly wouldn't give up a top 4 D signed long term for one year of him if that is the ask. Good player that will be a due a hefty raise, but with 1 year remaining, his value is nowhere near a guy like Brodie or Keith (lol at the guy that said he wouldn't do that deal).

And yes, I would tell "Blue Jackets" fans that Karlsson's shooting percentage would be a concern moving forward, just like I've been trying to say with Lee.

 

[boredmale]

And yes, I would tell "Blue Jackets" fans that Karlsson's shooting percentage would be a concern moving forward, just like I've been trying to say with Lee.

I would argue Lee's ability to get 200 shots(in a different situation) would be a bigger concern to me then his shooting percentage

 

[Shwabeal]

I would argue Lee's ability to get 200 shots(in a different situation) would be a bigger concern to me then his shooting percentage

I'd be concerned about both honestly. Even if he manages to "only" get off 170 shots, at this year's shooting percentage, he scores 33 goals. If his sh% drops to last years number, at 170 shots, he scores 30 goals. If his sh% falls to a more realistic (yet still high) 15.5%, at 170 shots, he scores 26. There's a lot of room for volatility that is hard to gauge because of who he's played with and how he gets his goals.

 

[Colt55]

You know of any courses that could help me with the difference between "your really confused" and "you're really confused"?

I'm not confused. I understand things like stats, advanced stats, projections, variables, equations, probability ect. Then I also understand opinion and facts. But hey per one 40 goal year at the age of 27 you have an elite player sign him long term. Let see if he can become a 40 goal scorer again

 

[CodeE]

his value is nowhere near a guy like Brodie or Keith (lol at the guy that said he wouldn't do that deal).

I'd be concerned about both honestly. Even if he manages to "only" get off 170 shots, at this year's shooting percentage, he scores 33 goals. If his sh% drops to last years number, at 170 shots, he scores 30 goals. If his sh% falls to a more realistic (yet still high) 15.5%, at 170 shots, he scores 26. There's a lot of room for volatility that is hard to gauge because of who he's played with and how he gets his goals.

But hey per one 40 goal year at the age of 27 you have an elite player sign him long term. Let see if he can become a 40 goal scorer again

Can you guys just seriously leave and stop derailing the thread with you're negativity? You're concerns have been noted and we don't need any more bitter, petty reasons why Lee isn't worth what we think he is.

 

[Shwabeal]

Can you guys just seriously leave and stop derailing the thread with you're negativity? You're concerns have been noted and we don't need any more bitter, petty reasons why Lee isn't worth what we think he is.

I'll stay and discuss whatever I please with people that actually want to have a discussion about this. You don't want to discuss, you want to tell people what to think. But thanks for the advice There's an ignore feature for a reason and I'll be exercising my option to use it.

 

[seafoam]

Jake Muzzin

Yes.

 

[Colt55]

Can you guys just seriously leave and stop derailing the thread with you're negativity? You're concerns have been noted and we don't need any more bitter, petty reasons why Lee isn't worth what we think he is.

Hey guy his value just isn't as high as you percieve.

 

[Strait2thecup]

Lol dumbest post I've seen. Suddenly Duncan Keith is not good enough for a waiver pickup because he isn't a Norris and Conn smythe dman anymore?

Continue to enjoy to isles dumpster fire

lol dumbest post ive ever seen. You just called a 40 goal scorer a waiver pick up. Really stupid f***ing comment. Lee is a top 10 goal scorer in this league people. Deal with it

 

[Em etah Eh]

lol dumbest post ive ever seen. You just called a 40 goal scorer a waiver pick up. Really stupid ****ing comment. Lee is a top 10 goal scorer in this league people. Deal with it

He wasn't calling Lee a waiver pickup... he was replying to a guy that said he wouldn't take Keith for free, so a waiver pickup.

 

[Strait2thecup]

He wasn't calling Lee a waiver pickup... he was replying to a guy that said he wouldn't take Keith for free, so a waiver pickup.

My mistake

 

[PAZ]

You're a hoot man. I didn't read two lines of one of your 20 posts in this thread and somehow that means I can't try to show you how ridiculous you're being. Got it.

You should quit while you're ahead because you're beating your head against a blue and orange wall.

 

[72hockey guy]

codee there was another Tim Kerr they just refuse to see that the definitions they use to define him are wrong

jerry west and shaq oneal two different style players. one considered probably the greatest shooter of all time, the other with a much higher shooting percentage, why because the NBA understands different styles of play leads to different results

too bad NHL FANS DONT GET IT

 

[72hockey guy]

and just to be clear I never said lee was better than Tarasenko, but whay I did say was that eastons comparison was full of **** because their style of play is totally different and using "unsustainable" shot percentage on a player like Lee is ridiculous and eastonblues knew it.

which is why I made the Shaq ONeal Jerry West comparioson . if you cant see why thats true than Sorry but the rest of you are idiots and im sure Codee and I will gladly take your criticisms because to be honest I dont listen to idiots

lees Shooting percentage was almost twice that of Tarasenko because they play different games and are therefore not comparable

as soon as easton brought him up he exposed himself and his agenda

compare Lee to the same type of player not all players since 1967, because all players dont play the same game