What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

[PaulD]

Bossy
129 play off games ...... 85 goals.

 

[PaulD]

I agree on principle... if we were talking about 100 games.

Well, let me rephrase that, I agree when it comes to Bossy.

Lemieux, no. He returned at 35 and scored at about 0,7GPG in 2001.[/QUOTE
That was unbelievable. Retired for three and a half years. Comes back in the dead puck era (of the Devils chsmionshion teams) and rips it up.
Best goal scorer I have ever seen.

 

[HTFN]

OV scored 51 in 014. Ending the small number if OV bashers who wrote him off.
Crosby was written off by concussions at 23 years old. Then came back and was writtemn off again till he won two more Con Smythes and a couple of Stanley Cups too. Then yet again before he puts up another 100pt season.
Stamkos has been written off.
Price has been written off by some Habs fans for last 3 seasons.
Elite players get dumped on (by their detractors) at any sign of not duplicating the same numbers every year.
OV is a horse. Like Chara and Chelios . Will play at a high level through 40.

You don't need to revise history just because you didn't personally believe it. It was everywhere, it wasn't a few people.

 

[Confused Turnip]

OV scored 51 in 014. Ending the small number if OV bashers who wrote him off.
Crosby was written off by concussions at 23 years old. Then came back and was writtemn off again till he won two more Con Smythes and a couple of Stanley Cups too. Then yet again before he puts up another 100pt season.
Stamkos has been written off.
Price has been written off by some Habs fans for last 3 seasons.
Elite players get dumped on (by their detractors) at any sign of not duplicating the same numbers every year.
OV is a horse. Like Chara and Chelios . Will play at a high level through 40.

I agree with everything except that there were a small number of detractors. That was in heavy rotation everywhere including places like HNIC and TSN.

EDIT sniped lol

 

[Slapshot Sultan]

I agree with your thinking here and I usually argue much in the same way.

That being said, Lemieux and Bossy are players where countering those who marvel at the high GPG stats matters very little. We can do excessively negative projection calculations and these two would still rank the same.

500 more games for Bossy, a pessimistic 200 goals (0.400 GPG versus his real life .762) would see him with 773 goals in 1252 games for .617 GPG.

500 more games for Lemieux, a pessimistic 200 goals (0.400 GPG versus his real life .754) would see him with 890 goals in 1415 games for .629 GPG.

Quick and lazy calculations with extremely conservative estimates and they rank 2 and 3in GPG, simply swapped positions. Behind Bure who only played 707 games and we would have to do the same thing for, to then return Mario and Bossy to 1 and 2.

It makes it kind of a moot argument. You’re right in theory, but it would still remain much the same even if you added 50-60% more games played.

I mean, those are pretty big impacts on their GPGs. Mario is a bit different as he played more games total and in his 30s and 40s than Bossy/Bure.

But if we look at Gretzky's and Bossy's first 10 seasons (which is all Bossy played):

Gretzky (first 10 seasons)
774 games 637 goals, 1857 points (0,82 GPG & 2,37 PPG)

Bossy (10 season career)
752 games 573 goals, 1126 points (0,76 GPG & 1,49 PPG)

And their careers pretty much overlapped so same era and Bossy has basically no argument of being better than Gretzky at goal scoring.

And then how much there is drop in Gretzky's last 10 seasons
713 games 257 goals, 1020 points (0,36 GPG, 1,43 PPG)
Still great of course, but a lot worse than his first 10 seasons

 

[Video Nasty]

I mean, those are pretty big impacts on their GPGs. Mario is a bit different as he played more games total and in his 30s and 40s than Bossy/Bure.

But if we look at Gretzky's and Bossy's first 10 seasons (which is all Bossy played):

Gretzky (first 10 seasons)
774 games 637 goals, 1857 points (0,82 GPG & 2,37 PPG)

Bossy (10 season career)
752 games 573 goals, 1126 points (0,76 GPG & 1,49 PPG)

And their careers pretty much overlapped so same era and Bossy has basically no argument of being better than Gretzky at goal scoring.

And then how much there is drop in Gretzky's last 10 seasons
713 games 257 goals, 1020 points (0,36 GPG, 1,43 PPG)
Still great of course, but a lot worse than his first 10 seasons

What do you want me to say lol? I chopped their GPG almost in half to make a point that they’d still place in the top couple of spots. It’s better than the basic argument where people take their real life per game stats and extrapolate it out over 1300-1600 games played.

I also wasn’t arguing that Bossy was a better goal scorer than Gretzky. He’s in my personal top 5 though.

Mario proved that he would at least score something by scoring 35 in 43 in 2000-2001 and 16 in his first 27 of 2002-2003.

 

[Slapshot Sultan]

What do you want me to say lol? I chopped their GPG almost in half to make a point that they’d still place in the top couple of spots. It’s better than the basic argument where people take their real life per game stats and extrapolate it out over 1300-1600 games played.

I also wasn’t arguing that Bossy was a better goal scorer than Gretzky. He’s in my personal top 5 though.

Mario proved that he would at least score something by scoring 35 in 43 in 2000-2001 and 16 in his first 27 of 2002-2003.

Yeah, It's not so much directed against your point which is pretty close to mine

More in general for those who think Bossy's/Bure's high GPGs makes them automatically better than some players who played a long full career.

 

[txpd]

OV scored 51 in 014. Ending the small number if OV bashers who wrote him off.
.

It wasnt a small number. Do 30 goal seasons had him pegged as no more than that going forward. 35 goals at $10m per season was getting him boat anchor status.

 

[Beukeboom]

He played 3 NHL seasons after his last (retro) rocket win.

It would have been extremely unlikely that he would have lead the league in goals any more times had he stayed in the NHL.

You're right. Completely forgot about the Esposito/Orr duo.

 

[Zuluss]

Well, let me rephrase that, I agree when it comes to Bossy.

Lemieux, no. He returned at 35 and scored at about 0,7GPG in 2001.

Lemieux returned in 2000/01 and scored 35 goals in 43 games - and then followed it up by scoring 42 goals in the rest of his career (127 games).
Which suggests two things: first, his scoring pace from 2000/01 was unsustainable and was not indicative how good Lemieux was coming out of retirement. 43 games in 2000/01 were just a hot streak.
Second, that his gpg would have certainly dropped dramatically if he had played several full post-30, let alone post-35 seasons (and the same applies to Bossy and Bure, for example).

 

[Paulinbc]

0. No one is ever going to catch Wayne. And that’s ok. That said, Ovi is damn good.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I thought he was going to do it but losing parts of last year and this season are killer. He's still got a shot but man it ain't gonna be easy.

 

[genk]

Approximately 0, give or take .0000000001%.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Lemieux returned in 2000/01 and scored 35 goals in 43 games - and then followed it up by scoring 42 goals in the rest of his career (127 games).
Which suggests two things: first, his scoring pace from 2000/01 was unsustainable and was not indicative how good Lemieux was coming out of retirement. 43 games in 2000/01 were just a hot streak.
Second, that his gpg would have certainly dropped dramatically if he had played several full post-30, let alone post-35 seasons (and the same applies to Bossy and Bure, for example).

Fair. Put Ovechkin on the post-Jagr/pre-Crosby Pens and see how many goals he scores.

Hint: context matter.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Approximately 0, give or take .0000000001%.

That's ludicrous.

I calculated about 25% a few weeks ago and I stick by it. It is way more likely to happen than many people are willing to admit. Difficult to do, but likely.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Approximately 0, give or take .0000000001%.

I don't get why folks think he's got no shot. He's still scoring at a 50 goal per season pace. Even if he slowed down to 30 it would take 6 seasons. Not easy but certainly not a zero percent chance. He's still got a legit shot at it.

 

[genk]

That's ludicrous.

I calculated about 25% a few weeks ago and I stick by it. It is way more likely to happen than many people are willing to admit. Difficult to do, but likely.

Ovy has 171 goals to go. He's probably not scoring more than 30 this season, bringing him to 158.

He's going to be 36 years old at the start of his next season. He will need an average of 30 goals a season for the next 5.3 seasons if he wants to hit 895. Meaning, odds are he'd have to play until at least 41, stay healthy, and be productive enough for a team to give him top minutes to keep scoring at a 30 goal pace. You're going to see a mix of decline in ability to play, mixed in with significant injuries given Ovy's style. There's no way he does it.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Ovy has 171 goals to go. He's probably not scoring more than 30 this season, bringing him to 158.

He's going to be 36 years old at the start of his next season. He will need an average of 30 goals a season for the next 5.3 seasons if he wants to hit 895. Meaning, odds are he'd have to play until at least 41, stay healthy, and be productive enough for a team to give him top minutes to keep scoring at a 30 goal pace. You're going to see a mix of decline in ability to play, mixed in with significant injuries given Ovy's style. There's no way he does it.

And if he plays into his mid 40s....

Jagr scored 85 goals from 41 years onward. Absolutely OV can do it too.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Ovy has 171 goals to go. He's probably not scoring more than 30 this season, bringing him to 158.

He's going to be 36 years old at the start of his next season. He will need an average of 30 goals a season for the next 5.3 seasons if he wants to hit 895. Meaning, odds are he'd have to play until at least 42, stay healthy, and be productive enough for a team to give him top minutes to keep scoring at a 30 goal pace. You're going to see a mix of decline in ability to play, mixed in with significant injuries given Ovy's style. There's no way he does it.

Go back to my posts calculating the probabilities.

25% means there is still 75% chance he does not do it... but 25% is a pretty good chance. If I told you there was 25% chance you would die in the next 5 years you would be uber scared.

 

[genk]

Go back to my posts calculating the probabilities.

25% means there is still 75% chance he does not do it... but 25% is a pretty good chance. If I told you there was 25% chance you would die in the next 5 years you would be uber scared.

I understand probabilities very well, and don't agree with your calculation. Pretty simple.

 

[Confused Turnip]

Ovy has 171 goals to go. He's probably not scoring more than 30 this season, bringing him to 158.

He's going to be 36 years old at the start of his next season. He will need an average of 30 goals a season for the next 5.3 seasons if he wants to hit 895. Meaning, odds are he'd have to play until at least 41, stay healthy, and be productive enough for a team to give him top minutes to keep scoring at a 30 goal pace. You're going to see a mix of decline in ability to play, mixed in with significant injuries given Ovy's style. There's no way he does it.

1) The Ovi's style is going to injure him trope has been consistently wrong for 15 years now
2) He needs to average a 30 goal pace, not keep scoring at one, if next year looks anything like this year and he can put in 40-50+ then that's only 10-20 he needs in his final year, etc

I think COVID tipped his chances from more likely than not to rather unlikely, but it's very much still possible.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

I understand probabilities very well, and don't agree with your calculation. Pretty simple.

Fair enough show me your calculations. You really think the probability of him doing it is 0?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Fair enough show me your calculations. You really think the probability of him doing it is 0?

Jagr from age 39-45 scored 120 goals. I don't get how people think OV has no chance.

He will need to stay healthy and hope that we don't keep cutting the schedule. But it is absolutely doable. Esp considering how productive he still is as a goal scorer right now.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Jagr from age 39-45 scored 120 goals. I don't get how people think OV has no chance.

He will need to stay healthy and hope that we don't keep cutting the schedule. But it is absolutely doable. Esp considering how productive he still is as a goal scorer right now.

Exactly. His production will go down at some point, but he has a realistic shot at it.

One thing I am convinced of is that he will play for a long time and play most of the games. His shot will also remain and his game is not dependant on speed. He should maintain good production.

 

[genk]

Fair enough show me your calculations. You really think the probability of him doing it is 0?

No, not actually 0. There's obviously a real (albeit unlikely) chance he does it. I was exaggerating my point for the sake of being silly.