What PPG player will O'Reilly be?

[detrude]

Oh, I agree. I've enjoyed the team this more so than many other years as a fan of the franchise, and I've been on board since 1989.



Again, no question that's true.



See, I put forth my opinion in a completely polite way, and backed it (or tried to) by factual information and common sense. And all along, I suspected that my stating unpopular facts concerning a popular player would lead to insults getting thrown my way.

However, I didn't expect it to come from you. Ah well....



In what way am I overreacting? I'm simply saying that O'Reilly's offensive game is lacking. And it is. I never said he wouldn't improve, couldn't improve, or isn't adding great value to the team. In fact, I've said - in this very thread - those VERY things. Several times.



Well, if another young forward getting big minutes gets outscored by Craig Anderson, I'll probably bring the fact up.



"Nailed"? I believe I brought up his early lack of production, and attributed it to a lack of accuracy on his open shots, and the fact that he didn't use his linemates very well (of course, early on Tucker was one of them). If you'd like to debate whether Duchene does or hasn't missed the net a lot from 15 feet out this year, I'll be happy to engage in that discussion. His finding of open spaces in the offensive zone while in possession of the puck, and his ability to find his teammates, have both improved immensely this season. That's been awesome to see.



...who I asserted was often lazy and very streaky; and I asserted that it would be difficult to discern which player they had: the 45-goal pace guy from early in the season, or the 8-goal pace guy at the end. Obviously, Sherman had similar concerns.

What is the problem with me bringing those points up?



Who has been outscored by Adam Foote over the past half season.



To score more points than Adam Foote?

Look, I'm sorry if you don't like my bringing up weaknesses of the players on our team. I don't do so randomly, but I feel I take an honest look at them and their performance. I perfectly understand that young players and teams have their ups and downs, but I don't simply excuse everything due to age. Nor do I simply assume because a guy is young, that he is somehow going to miraculously continue to improve at some wonderful pace, just because he's 18 years old right now. If that were true, Peter Mueller (after that wonderful rookie season at age 18) would be leading the NHL in scoring right now.

You are welcome to disagree, and I enjoy the debate. Why you have to throw "hardon" and "you've nailed..." garbage at me, I don't know.

-AB

Ab, I respect your opinion and like debating things with you, but just like Duchene earlier in the season I think you're going a little overboard here. Yes, you used facts to back up your argument just like I tried to use facts to back up my opinion, but in the end all we're doing to each other is saying "lalala, look at my opinion!"

I say "hardon" and "nailed..." because that's what I see going on. With this, Duchene earlier in the year, and Jones and Wolski at some point, it was "so and so is out-scoring such and such during [this stretch] <insert statement here>." In a vacuum I'd agree with you, it's not a good thing to be out-scored by Foote. However, given the circumstances (young guy, playing in a mostly defense-first role, playing critical minutes, etc), it's not bad. Wasn't it recently we all wanted to see a next generation shutdown center on the third line? Right now we have that in O'Reilly. I do believe he has untapped offensive potential and I'd love to see him rack up more points (which I do believe will happen), but if this is all we're getting from him I still believe we have a gem.

 

[ABasin]

Even then, points won't tell the whole story with him. I truly believe O'Reilly has untapped offensive potential, but if he "only" turns out to be a 40-50 point center I'd be more than ecstatic given how good he is defensively. I'd do back flips if he got some better linemates and put up 60+, but I don't expect it considering Stastny and Duchene will likely be ahead of him for the foreseeable future.

I'd be perfectly happy with 30, given the type of defense he plays. A more consistent 30, anyway.

What I'd really like to see, is a Galiardi-O'Reilly-Yip/Jones line. Good speed, good offensive potential, really nice defensively.

I wonder whether Sacco has artificially shut down O'Reilly's offensive game. What I mean by that is, perhaps Sacco told him that his sole responsibility is to be back, period end of story. Way more restrictive than your typical 3rd line center. Again, I suspect we'll never know, but just more musing...

-AB

 

[Hermit Wizard Eater]

I think that O'Reilly could be a pretty good power play guy too, right around the net.

Too bad we already have Stazz/Doucher/Muels out there though.

 

[Freudian]

I should quiet down? Because my opinion is different than yours? Let's be careful with that, shall we?

Everything you say there is true, but we still have a situation where our 3rd line center is being outscored by 7 defensemen over the past half season. And that includes Scott Hannan (who has had more defensive responsibility than any player on the Avalanche, except Anderson), and Adam Foote, who is a defensive defenseman who can barely move anymore.

What began this whole discussion, was my musing whether O'Reilly's offensive development was hurt by bringing him up to the Avs this season. I'm not saying they shouldn't have done it, I'm just wondering if the offensive development was hurt. Not that we'll ever know.

-AB

And we have an 18-19 year old third liner outscoring Tucker/Svatos, who are supposed to have a scoring touch. And McLeod who we thought might have a scoring touch.

I just don't see how O'Reilly is the big problem with the lack of production on the bottom six. Hell, Tucker even gets PP time and can't produce at all.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

If that 40ish games is indicative of the player's talent, it's not fine by me. A winning team needs more than 3-4 goals per season out of it's 3rd line players.

-AB

No doubt. Our bottom line scoring has been crap for a while now and secondary scoring is a must. But IMO O'Reilly's product is definitely not indicative of his offensive talent, but more of his role. Galiardi was simply a grinder for the first half of the season, but still showed smooth skating and passing. Hes producing now, on a line expected to score consistently.

O'Reilly's situation is similar, hes playing a safe checker's game. And with linemates like Tucker, Svatos, McLeod who are bad in the defensive zone, and a defense as bad as ours have been, its the game that helps the team. Imagine if he tries to score aggressively on every shift, make a mistake and theres no one backing him up except Andy and maybe Hannan if hes on the ice.

If the Avs add a winger or Jones and Yip recovers well, I expect that line to be more than simply a checking line, but provide the secondary scoring we've been lacking. Right now though, O'Reilly's scoring is just icing on the cake.

 

[ABasin]

And we have an 18-19 year old third liner outscoring Tucker/Svatos, who are supposed to have a scoring touch. And McLeod who we thought might have a scoring touch.

I just don't see how O'Reilly is the big problem with the lack of production on the bottom six. Hell, Tucker even gets PP time and can't produce at all.

Yeah, Tucker stinks. When he buried that one-timer from Hejduk the other night, I half jumped up from the couch..... "was that Tucker"?!?

I think McLeod is playing at exactly his skill level. About a 8-10 goal 4th line guy. He doesn't seem to have quite the jump he had early in the year, but I'm not as down on him as some people in here.

-AB

 

[detrude]

I'd be perfectly happy with 30, given the type of defense he plays. A more consistent 30, anyway.

What I'd really like to see, is a Galiardi-O'Reilly-Yip/Jones line. Good speed, good offensive potential, really nice defensively.

I wonder whether Sacco has artificially shut down O'Reilly's offensive game. What I mean by that is, perhaps Sacco told him that his sole responsibility is to be back, period end of story. Way more restrictive than your typical 3rd line center. Again, I suspect we'll never know, but just more musing...

-AB

That'd be my guess. As the season has progressed, Sacco has seemed to lean on O'Reilly more and more for important situations. I'd bet dollars to doughnuts this is the reason Yelle was brought in at the deadline, to pass on some of his wisdom and help elevate O'Reilly's defensive game to another level. My guess is after another year or so of polish we'll see some more offense out of him and he'll turn out to be one of the better two-way players in the west, if not in the league.

 

[ABasin]

That'd be my guess. As the season has progressed, Sacco has seemed to lean on O'Reilly more and more for important situations. I'd bet dollars to doughnuts this is the reason Yelle was brought in at the deadline, to pass on some of his wisdom and help elevate O'Reilly's defensive game to another level. My guess is after another year or so of polish we'll see some more offense out of him and he'll turn out to be one of the better two-way players in the west, if not in the league.

Yeah, I think the other thing Yelle does for the Avs, is it allows Stastny to not have to kill penalties that often - keeps him fresh. O'Reilly, Galiardi, and Yelle are three really good penalty killers at forward. Hendricks is OK. I'm not sold on McLeod doing it though.

-AB

 

[kapzk]

I should quiet down? Because my opinion is different than yours? Let's be careful with that, shall we?

Everything you say there is true, but we still have a situation where our 3rd line center is being outscored by 7 defensemen over the past half season. And that includes Scott Hannan (who has had more defensive responsibility than any player on the Avalanche, except Anderson), and Adam Foote, who is a defensive defenseman who can barely move anymore.

What began this whole discussion, was my musing whether O'Reilly's offensive development was hurt by bringing him up to the Avs this season. I'm not saying they shouldn't have done it, I'm just wondering if the offensive development was hurt. Not that we'll ever know.

-AB

My apology for saying it in that way lol....it wat supposed to mean lower the criticism on O'Reilly. My bad

 

[ABasin]

Ab, I respect your opinion and like debating things with you, but just like Duchene earlier in the season I think you're going a little overboard here. Yes, you used facts to back up your argument just like I tried to use facts to back up my opinion, but in the end all we're doing to each other is saying "lalala, look at my opinion!"

I guess I view it a bit differently. I like the back and forth, getting into the details. It's a way to debate the issue and learn things, IMO.

Enjoy discussing stuff with you also, Detrude.

-AB

 

[ABasin]

My apology for saying it in that way lol....it wat supposed to mean lower the criticism on O'Reilly. My bad

No biggie, dude. I was just kidding. Well, mostly kidding...

-AB

 

[detrude]

I guess I view it a bit differently. I like the back and forth, getting into the details. It's a way to debate the issue and learn things, IMO.

Enjoy discussing stuff with you also.

-AB

Don't disagree, it just seemed we hit a point earlier in this where neither was going to budge. We've since broken ground,

 

[StanGetz*]

 

[kapzk]

No biggie, dude. I was just kidding. Well, mostly kidding...

-AB

LOL it's cool ya just things slip out when you debate hot topics like this one. I respect all each and every member's opinion. Obviously somethings are up in the air and there to debate. I completely understand your perspective on this whole O'reilly thing, and wow u have been on this board since 1989

 

[ABasin]

LOL it's cool ya just things slip out when you debate hot topics like this one. I respect all each and every member's opinion. Obviously somethings are up in the air and there to debate. I completely understand your perspective on this whole O'reilly thing, and wow u have been on this board since 1989

LOL. No, I've been a fan of the franchise since 1989.

-AB

 

[kapzk]

LOL. No, I've been a fan of the franchise since 1989.

-AB

Lol, still pretty impressive....good to see many different perspectives and vision on the board..I myself have yet to reach Duchene's age but shortly will in a matter of months (yes it's party time lol)... that's perhaps why I can come to be so careless in my discussions at times

 

[thedoctor]

Actually, it's the larger sample set. Dudes played 67 games. Produced well in a 24 game stretch, not so well in a 43 game stretch.

I'm not the one worked up over this discussion, I assure you.

I love Yip's game. I don't see how he could keep up the scoring pace he started with, but he's a good player, I think.

-AB

1. I should have clarified -- smaller than the global, career sample set. That's what I meant.

2. Haha, I'm sure you're not. But maybe you should stop working everyone else up.

3. No doubt. But I can still see the mildly stated but nevertheless incendiary "Yip is scoring at Hannan's pace the last 40 games, who else is concerned?" post next midseason.

 

[ABasin]

3. No doubt. But I can still see the mildly stated but nevertheless incendiary "Yip is scoring at Hannan's pace the last 40 games, who else is concerned?" post next midseason.

My question is why it's incendiary. If it's fact, it's fact.

As for Yip, I'm still on the fence as to whether that guy is 2nd line material, or a 3rd line checker. Same for Jones, honestly. Though he looks like he belongs on the upper level of the two. I feel bad for the guy though. Just when he gets going, he gets a pretty serious injury - two years in a row.

-AB

 

[54toscore]

I wrote this a month ago about ROR:

Well, if you look back at the last 36 games, Ryan O'Reilly has had points in only 2 of them. Statistically (I'll stress "statistically" again, to avoid any flames), that's Tyler Aranson territory.

Am I worried though? No. Should I be? Maybe.

For comparison's sake, here's Jordan Staal's sophomore season:
2007-08 GP 82 G 12 A16 PTS 28

Without a doubt, Jordan Staal is blessed with more offensive talent than O'Reilly, yet playing behind Malkin/Crosby as a 19-year-old, he only managed 28 pts in a season.

The fact that O'Reilly has 22 points in his rookie season (so far) to me is very encouraging. In general, what is the ceiling for a third-line center who doesn't get power play time in this NHL? I think it's about 40 points (see John Madden, whose checking wingers had a decent bit of skill in NJ).

As long as O'Reilly is playing behind Stastny and Duchene, I see him topping out around 35 points. And, yes, there will stretches when he gets 2 points in 15 games. That's the fate of a checking line center.

 

[ABasin]

As long as O'Reilly is playing behind Stastny and Duchene, I see him topping out around 35 points. And, yes, there will stretches when he gets 2 points in 15 games. That's the fate of a checking line center.

Tonight, with 4 regular forwards out hurt, O'Reilly was firmly entrenched on the 4th line. Which I'm happy about, because given his offensive output, it's where he belongs.

Cue the "AB criticized one of The Chosen!!" stuff, but seriously, he looks no better than Porter or Svatos right now, outside of his own zone.

-AB

 

[chewey]

AB what are your expectations out of RoR and for a 3rd line center?

 

[shadow1]

Tonight, with 4 regular forwards out hurt, O'Reilly was firmly entrenched on the 4th line. Which I'm happy about, because given his offensive output, it's where he belongs.

Cue the "AB criticized one of The Chosen!!" stuff, but seriously, he looks no better than Porter or Svatos right now, outside of his own zone.

-AB

He hasn't impressed me much at all, either. At the start of the season he looked great because he scored some very timely goals, but since then has done zip offensively.

I appreciate the defensive abilities he brings to the team, and I know he can bring more offense then he does judging by his performances in junior and at the beginning of the season, but I'm not nearly as high on him as others. He hasn't done squat in the face-off circle, doesn't hit, and doesn't go to the dirty areas like a traditional grinder. He plays the game like a playmaker, but as discussed hasn't done anything significant offensively in months.

That's not to say I have some wild expectations for an 18/19 year old rookie - who probably should have played another season in junior - but to me he's mostly just another dude on the team who might be a really good depth center down the road.

 

[PeterTheGreat]

Tonight, with 4 regular forwards out hurt, O'Reilly was firmly entrenched on the 4th line. Which I'm happy about, because given his offensive output, it's where he belongs.

Cue the "AB criticized one of The Chosen!!" stuff, but seriously, he looks no better than Porter or Svatos right now, outside of his own zone.

-AB

Hockey is played in all three zones.

But I do agree with you. He hasn't cut it offensively at all for the past several months. I still believe the potential is there, but he's not performing.

However I'll withhold any real judgments until Jones and Yip are back and he's given a couple capable offensive linemates.

 

[UnkleKraker]

Tonight, with 4 regular forwards out hurt, O'Reilly was firmly entrenched on the 4th line. Which I'm happy about, because given his offensive output, it's where he belongs.

Cue the "AB criticized one of The Chosen!!" stuff, but seriously, he looks no better than Porter or Svatos right now, outside of his own zone.

-AB

I think the criticism is fair at this point. He isn't lost on the club by any means but given his performance lately it is clear he has hit the rookie wall. As other's noted, it would have probably been better had he not been so hot early so we could have sent him back for another year of junior. Long term I have no worries and I am sure he has learned a lot even while he is not contributing but he (along with most of the team) hasn't looked greatly lately. Still very excited about the future though and I kinda think we all expected this from the rookies.

 

[Adama0905]

Tonight, with 4 regular forwards out hurt, O'Reilly was firmly entrenched on the 4th line. Which I'm happy about, because given his offensive output, it's where he belongs.

Cue the "AB criticized one of The Chosen!!" stuff, but seriously, he looks no better than Porter or Svatos right now, outside of his own zone.

-AB

Well, duh, outside of his own zone right now he looks pretty Arnason-esque to be honest.

But it's his play in the zone where he'll make a career.

However, even that hasn't been spectacular lately.

Not impressed with the kid lately. Luckily, he's just that: a kid.