What PPG player will O'Reilly be?

[S E P H]

He's so young it's really hard to tell if he will become a 30 goal scorer in his prime or a straight foward defensive player. In the start he was amazing! Was on pace for about 50 points, but has really slumped since then.

So my question is how many points will he get in his prime of his career?

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[GirardSpinorama]

He'll be a playmaker for sure, he doesn't have a great shot or dangles but he has very good vision and passing skills. I can see him getting 15 goals 35 assists a year playing with shooters like Yip and Jones.

 

[TheStranger]

I expect him to be a 40-50 point player maximum. Don't expect him to ever move off of the 3rd line really...he's not going to take over for Stastny or Duchene, and if he ends up being the faceoff/defensive specialist of the team, he'll stick on the 3rd line regardless of his offensive ability..a la Jordan Staal, not that they'll be comparable in talent...although that would be nice.

 

[Adama0905]

30-40 is my expectation. But he'll be one of those guys who would get considered for the Selke if it truly was for the best defensive forward.

 

[R S]

50 at the very very tops.

A consistent 35 sounds about right.

 

[Stories]

I'm hoping for John Madden. He once got 43pts.

 

[Freudian]

If he plays his entire career as a 3rd liner with mainly defensive responsibilities I think 0.5 PPG ceiling is realistic. I think it is possible he would be able to be a serviceable 2nd line center on teams less stacked in the middle.

 

[TheStranger]

If he plays his entire career as a 3rd liner with mainly defensive responsibilities I think 0.5 PPG ceiling is realistic. I think it is possible he would be able to be a serviceable 2nd line center on teams less stacked in the middle.

Depends on what kind of talent we get. If the Avs ever got another great 3rd line defensive type guy centermen through draft, and O"Reilly had showed offensive flare...he could perhaps be shifted to wing. All depends on what happens in the future as far as wingers..etc..

 

[PeterTheGreat]

He'll be a playmaker for sure, he doesn't have a great shot or dangles but he has very good vision and passing skills. I can see him getting 15 goals 35 assists a year playing with shooters like Yip and Jones.

Pretty much agree with everything here.

He's way more of a passer than shooter. He's actually a very good passer, but the linemates he's had to pass it to are either 1: Not open, 2: fumble his pass, or 3: Miss the net after receiving the pass.

(I'm talking about McLeod, Tucker, and Svatos by the way).

 

[ABasin]

50 points? Yikes, are you guys expecting really huge improvement from him? Because since Thanksgiving (just about a half a season), he's amassed *5* points. Yes, he's playing at a 10 point pace in the last half season. He's a nice defensive player, no doubt - but 10 points is 4th line center territory. 10 to 50 is a big uplift.

-AB

 

[badtakemachine]

50 points? Yikes, are you guys expecting really huge improvement from him? Because since Thanksgiving (just about a half a season), he's amassed *5* points. Yes, he's playing at a 10 point pace in the last half season. He's a nice defensive player, no doubt - but 10 points is 4th line center territory. 10 to 50 is a big uplift.

-AB

So before Thanksgiving doesn't count? He's not even 20 yet, I don't think 50 points is out of his range.

 

[chewey]

50 points? Yikes, are you guys expecting really huge improvement from him? Because since Thanksgiving (just about a half a season), he's amassed *5* points. Yes, he's playing at a 10 point pace in the last half season. He's a nice defensive player, no doubt - but 10 points is 4th line center territory. 10 to 50 is a big uplift.

-AB

He is 19 and has 22 points this season. He will probably end with 25 points. I don't see him as a consistnt 50 point player more likely a consistnt 30 to 40 point player. Unless of course you think he has already peaked as a 19 year old in his rookie season .

 

[Seaward*]

He will be a 20 to 30 point getter.

No chance he will ever be a 30 goal scorer.

 

[ABasin]

He is 19 and has 22 points this season. He will probably end with 25 points. I don't see him as a consistnt 50 point player more likely a consistnt 30 to 40 point player. Unless of course you think he has already peaked as a 19 year old in his rookie season .

I'm not sure the Avs didn't hurt his offensive development by keeping him in the NHL this season. I like O'Reilly - a lot. He's a very responsible defensive player at such a young age. But, he's also at the age when players develop certain skills, and he's not showing very much offensively at all right now. And hasn't for months. I'm a bit concerned, honestly. Because right now, if he has an 'off' defensive game, he isn't very useful. Good thing his defense is usually quite good.

Like I said, for a half season now, he's not even scoring at a pace that's acceptable for a 4th line player. 5 points in his last 43 games. Chris Durno is doing better offensively than that (7 points in 34 games). *Adam Foote* is doing better offensively than that (7 points in his last 44 games).

I suspect this will garner the usual "you had the audacity to offer even 1% criticism of a popular Avs player" responses, but that's simply an honest assessment. O'Reilly's offensive game isn't very good at all, and hasn't been for months now.

Over the past half season (for players who've played a reasonable number of games), Ryan O'Reilly has the worst offensive production on the entire team, including all of the defensemen.

-AB

 

[Alex Jones]

It depends what role he is in.

I'm not going to pretend, i've been a monster homer for O'reilly all year, and I think that he is player that will end somewhere in the 40-60 range, depending on his role.

He MUST put on some weight, because when he does he has the tools to become a monster down along the boards. Admitedly, his shooting isn't so good, but I actually think his passing is outstanding for this point in his development.

Admittedly, he's gotta get some better linemates, (as in people that can at least recieve a pass) but when he does, I think he's a 40 pt. producer right now. Remember, he was putting up good numbers w/Galliardi on his line....

However, as he get's stronger along the boards, i think that he has a lot of the same skillset Staz does, just to a lesser degree. He's extremley raw in the offensive zone. When he's not playing off the rush, he actually looks a little lost....As he learns to control the play, get some better linemates, and get some time on the PP, I could see him being a 20-40 guy.

 

[Alex Jones]

I'm not sure the Avs didn't hurt his offensive development by keeping him in the NHL this season. I like O'Reilly - a lot. He's a very responsible defensive player at such a young age. But, he's also at the age when players develop certain skills, and he's not showing very much offensively at all right now. And hasn't for months. I'm a bit concerned, honestly. Because right now, if he has an 'off' defensive game, he isn't very useful. Good thing his defense is usually quite good.

Like I said, for a half season now, he's not even scoring at a pace that's acceptable for a 4th line player. 5 points in his last 43 games. Chris Durno is doing better offensively than that (7 points in 34 games). *Adam Foote* is doing better offensively than that (7 points in his last 44 games).

I suspect this will garner the usual "you had the audacity to offer even 1% criticism of a popular Avs player" responses, but that's simply an honest assessment. O'Reilly's offensive game isn't very good at all, and hasn't been for months now.

Over the past half season (for players who've played a reasonable number of games), Ryan O'Reilly has the worst offensive production on the entire team, including all of the defensemen.

-AB

You also have to consider when and with who he's out there. he's out there w/complete offensive disasters most nights, and really he spends a lot of his time on the PK.

That being said, I'm not so sure your post isn't, to some point right. He would have gotten many more minutes offensivley down in the OHL. I'm not gonna pretend, his in-zone offense is actually quite atrocious, but personally, I'm not so worried about it. It might be a problem if he had serious issues with adapting to the speed of the game, but by in large I think that it's simply that he's not big enough on dump and chase, and that his positioning needs some work. I don't know that both of those can't be fixed. Once he get's some more time in the offensive zone, I don't have a whole lot of doubts that his positioning and overall play will improve.

I also gotta mention, he's just about our best player passing off the rush.

 

[The Pwnerer]

Worst case scenario Samuel Pahlsson like stats.
Best case scenario is Jordan Staal/Mike Peca like stats...

Its gunna be tough to put up points when he always going to be behind 2 centers.

 

[chewey]

I'm not sure the Avs didn't hurt his offensive development by keeping him in the NHL this season. I like O'Reilly - a lot. He's a very responsible defensive player at such a young age. But, he's also at the age when players develop certain skills, and he's not showing very much offensively at all right now. And hasn't for months. I'm a bit concerned, honestly. Because right now, if he has an 'off' defensive game, he isn't very useful. Good thing his defense is usually quite good.

Like I said, for a half season now, he's not even scoring at a pace that's acceptable for a 4th line player. 5 points in his last 43 games. Chris Durno is doing better offensively than that (7 points in 34 games). *Adam Foote* is doing better offensively than that (7 points in his last 44 games).

I suspect this will garner the usual "you had the audacity to offer even 1% criticism of a popular Avs player" responses, but that's simply an honest assessment. O'Reilly's offensive game isn't very good at all, and hasn't been for months now.

Over the past half season (for players who've played a reasonable number of games), Ryan O'Reilly has the worst offensive production on the entire team, including all of the defensemen.

-AB

Well I was one of the few that supported the Sakic retirement ages ago as well not signing Foppa [and still do]. I don't know if I go as extreme as you had once suggested to trade Sakic for Weber, so I say I am in a middle ground.

But here is something to throw at ya AB:

a. RoR is a rookie [yes, this is his first season].
b. why a is so important is because, look at the other rookies this season:

- Tavares: 10 points since mid December.
- Kane (before his injury): 14 points since mid November.
- James van Riemsdyk: 14 points since November.
- RoR: 10 points since mid November.

I could probably go down the list some more, but only Duchene has been a near PPG player since Janurary.

We are use to rookies scoring 50+ points a season or more in the past years that people expect that each season. In fact there have been a decrease in rookie production since Ovechkin/Crosby.

My point? RoR is producing right where his other players of his age are. Is this a cause of concern? Maybe. Each player mentioned play a different position but this season we are seeing rookies that are starting not to produce at a PPG rate and I suspect that to be the case in the future as well.

Right now, RoR is fine offensively. He'll develop the consistency down the road. But, if he was 25 years old and in his 6th NHL season then I'd agree with you.

 

[iAvs]

RoR can put up the points if he's got the players around him.

IMO, he's going to be a 30 point player, but a leader on the PK and a valuable defensive forward.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

I'm not sure the Avs didn't hurt his offensive development by keeping him in the NHL this season. I like O'Reilly - a lot. He's a very responsible defensive player at such a young age. But, he's also at the age when players develop certain skills, and he's not showing very much offensively at all right now. And hasn't for months. I'm a bit concerned, honestly. Because right now, if he has an 'off' defensive game, he isn't very useful. Good thing his defense is usually quite good.

Like I said, for a half season now, he's not even scoring at a pace that's acceptable for a 4th line player. 5 points in his last 43 games. Chris Durno is doing better offensively than that (7 points in 34 games). *Adam Foote* is doing better offensively than that (7 points in his last 44 games).

I suspect this will garner the usual "you had the audacity to offer even 1% criticism of a popular Avs player" responses, but that's simply an honest assessment. O'Reilly's offensive game isn't very good at all, and hasn't been for months now.

Over the past half season (for players who've played a reasonable number of games), Ryan O'Reilly has the worst offensive production on the entire team, including all of the defensemen.

-AB

It could very well be the same situation the Pens put Staal in (except Staal being a lot more naturally gifted of course). Another example would be Luke Schenn, where the coaching staff pretty much pegged him into a defensive role. These young guys have offensive tools (especially Staal), but management has basically made them into defensive specialists. They would probably develop better offensive games in the juniors with more offensive responsibilities.

That being said, O'Reilly is the youngest player on the team and over the entire season hes scoring at the same pace as Kesler did in his true rookie campaign (who was 2 years older), so I'm not entirely worried about a lack of production. Hes skating faster, still making smart passes and showing nice vision, if he only improves his defensive game, I'm fine with it. If he starts producing offensively, hopefully when he gets useful wingers on his line, it'd just be icing on the cake.

 

[kapzk]

I dunno why ppl here are getting so concerned and worried but O'Reilly's offensive production. The Avs surely didnt keep him around for the remainder of the season for offensive purposes. This kid has phenomenal defensive abilities and shows great poise and composure at such a young age. He will a be a great key asset for the avs in the yrs to come. Yes I know O'reilly's numbers have declined after the quarter mark of the season. But keep in mind we did not expect him to score and put up great numbers. His talent truly lies in defense, PK, and faceoffs. IMO those skills are just as if not more important as scoring/offense because it is those type of players that contribute significantly in the playoffs. O'Reilly currently sits 11th in rookie pts and given the linemates that he has had over the course of the season there is nothing to be worried about.

I believe O'Reilly can put up 45 in a season during his prime years. Obviously this is assuming that he stays put on the 3rd line and continues to have bottom six wingers. If Jones and Yip are one his wings side then definitely an increase in point production will occur. So overall we have a great young player in our hands, and he ll only continue to develop. So for all of you folks that are worrying and just looking at his point totals ...chill out cuz your missing out on the better picture.

 

[Dgill]

Mike Fisher type player.

 

[Grackle Party]

dudes got skill I bet he has one or more 20+ goal season...

 

[kapzk]

Don't forget O'Reilly was drafted ahead of the likes of our very own Matt Duchene, Taylor Hall, Cam Fowler in the OHL draft(2007). So definitely O'Reilly is gifted but he did play for the terrible Erie Otters that made his draft value fall down to the 2nd round.

 

[UnkleKraker]

Don't forget O'Reilly was drafted ahead of the likes of our very own Matt Duchene, Taylor Hall, Cam Fowler in the OHL draft(2007). So definitely O'Reilly is gifted but he did play for the terrible Erie Otters that made his draft value fall down to the 2nd round.

I agree. I think we might be selling the guy short. I will be plenty pleased if he simply become a great defensive forward but I think his upside is more.