What PPG player will O'Reilly be?

[Freudian]

A while into the season his defensive awareness became obvious and Sacco leaned on him more and more to defend. He now takes 60% of his draws in our end meaning he has to start his (still quite short) shifts far away from the opponents goal, often playing against the better lines of the opposing teams. Then his skilled line mates got injured and he has to play with Tucker/Svatos who are ice cold/snake bitten and it is no wonder his production will drop off.

He will become stronger, have better line mates and be more comfortable in his role. You can tell he always errs on the side of caution now, he simply is more concerned with not allowing goals instead of creating.

He has above average passing skills, sky high hockey IQ and extreme hand eye coordination. That will translate into offense eventually. If he has two of Jones/Yip/Galiardi on his line, you will see his production turn around.

I don't know if we have gotten spoiled but it is close to unheard of that 18-year olds drafted outside the first round make it into the NHL. And for them to not only stick but being leaned on in a role that normally takes 2-3 years to learn at the NHL level is amazing.

The offense will come. I have no worries about that.

 

[Adama0905]

I'm not sure the Avs didn't hurt his offensive development by keeping him in the NHL this season. I like O'Reilly - a lot. He's a very responsible defensive player at such a young age. But, he's also at the age when players develop certain skills, and he's not showing very much offensively at all right now. And hasn't for months. I'm a bit concerned, honestly. Because right now, if he has an 'off' defensive game, he isn't very useful. Good thing his defense is usually quite good.

Like I said, for a half season now, he's not even scoring at a pace that's acceptable for a 4th line player. 5 points in his last 43 games. Chris Durno is doing better offensively than that (7 points in 34 games). *Adam Foote* is doing better offensively than that (7 points in his last 44 games).

I suspect this will garner the usual "you had the audacity to offer even 1% criticism of a popular Avs player" responses, but that's simply an honest assessment. O'Reilly's offensive game isn't very good at all, and hasn't been for months now.

Over the past half season (for players who've played a reasonable number of games), Ryan O'Reilly has the worst offensive production on the entire team, including all of the defensemen.

-AB

I agree with this on all points, although I'm not particularly concerned about it. He's our first or second best defensive forward night in and night out. That's simply his job. Not concerned really, and I'm certain he'll get better offensively.

 

[ABasin]

Right now, RoR is fine offensively.

I understand the youth argument, and there is merit to it. Here's the context though:

In the past half season, O'Reilly is being outscored by Chris Durno, Adam Foote, and Scott Hannan.

I don't know how that can be described as 'fine'.

-AB

 

[StanGetz*]

I understand the youth argument, and there is merit to it. Here's the context though:

In the past half season, O'Reilly is being outscored by Chris Durno, Adam Foote, and Scott Hannan.

I don't know how that can be described as 'fine'.

-AB

I know there's no excuses in hockey, but when you play with guys like Tucker and Cody Mac, production has to suffer. When RoR passes off to them, the fumble the puck, and have zero finish. When they pass to RoR, it's picked off. It's lose-lose for RoR, and the fact that he can still contribute in other ways despite his handicap is great for the Avs. Just remember next year we can possibly ice a 3rd line of Jonsey-RoR-Yip or Gags-RoR-Yip which will provide RoR with a ****load of potential firepower.

 

[detrude]

I understand the youth argument, and there is merit to it. Here's the context though:

In the past half season, O'Reilly is being outscored by Chris Durno, Adam Foote, and Scott Hannan.

I don't know how that can be described as 'fine'.

-AB

Honestly, I'm OK with his production given he's played so well overall. I think his early season explosion raised the expectation bar, but I don't think that's fair given he's 18 and playing on the third line (as said before). The points will come in time, I'm sure, but for now his defensive prowess is helping us stay in the race without costing the team any offense.

 

[Gumballhead]

I understand the youth argument, and there is merit to it. Here's the context though:

In the past half season, O'Reilly is being outscored by Chris Durno, Adam Foote, and Scott Hannan.

I don't know how that can be described as 'fine'.

-AB

I don't think that his offensive game is at the point (at...19!) where he can create his own offense against NHL competition. Factor in that he's not out there with good offensive players and never on the power play, and I'm not surprised he's put up so few points. He gets chances now and again, and he hasn't made much of them. Same thing was happening to Duchene earlier in the year, and now he's obviously gotten a lot better at burying the puck. They aren't the same player, but you can see how easy it is to wonder about a player when they aren't scoring, because a lot of us were wondering about Duchene.

They're playing ROR like a baby Stephan Yelle right now, and he's been excellent at the role. I think it's waaaaay too early to be able to tell how many points he'll put up a year. If he continues to be our 3rd line center (a good possibility considering who centers the top 2 lines), he may never get to put up the numbers he might have otherwise. Right now he's doing a lot of other important things right.

 

[kapzk]

I know there's no excuses in hockey, but when you play with guys like Tucker and Cody Mac, production has to suffer. When RoR passes off to them, the fumble the puck, and have zero finish. When they pass to RoR, it's picked off. It's lose-lose for RoR, and the fact that he can still contribute in other ways despite his handicap is great for the Avs. Just remember next year we can possibly ice a 3rd line of Jonsey-RoR-Yip or Gags-RoR-Yip which will provide RoR with a ****load of potential firepower.

how could u forget the all-mighty Svatos!

 

[ABasin]

I know there's no excuses in hockey, but when you play with guys like Tucker and Cody Mac, production has to suffer.

Durno and Hendricks have played with guys like Tucker and Cody Mac all year long as well, and they're outscoring O'Reilly over the past half season. In fact, both Tucker's and Hendrick's offensive output in the past half season is more than 2x O'Reilly's.

-AB

 

[ABasin]

how could u forget the all-mighty Svatos!

Another player who has played alongside 'scrubs' like McLeod and Tucker all season long, and another player who has almost doubled O'Reilly's offensive output over his last half season.

-AB

 

[Gumballhead]

Another player who has played alongside 'scrubs' like McLeod and Tucker all season long, and another player who has almost doubled O'Reilly's offensive output over his last half season.

-AB

Are you messing with us? It sounds like you've taken on the role of arguing from someone else's point of view.

 

[detrude]

Durno and Hendricks have played with guys like Tucker and Cody Mac all year long as well, and they're outscoring O'Reilly over the past half season. In fact, both Tucker's and Hendrick's offensive output in the past half season is more than 2x O'Reilly's.

-AB

And O'Reilly's role is double theirs in killing penalties and being on the ice in important situations (d-zone faceoffs, "holding" the lead in the final minute, etc). Why harp a teenager when he's helping us win in so many other ways?

 

[ABasin]

Honestly, I'm OK with his production given he's played so well overall. I think his early season explosion raised the expectation bar, but I don't think that's fair given he's 18 and playing on the third line (as said before). The points will come in time, I'm sure, but for now his defensive prowess is helping us stay in the race without costing the team any offense.

Wha....?

How can you say that he's not costing the team any offense? He most certainly is.

He's playing the 7th most minutes at ES of all forwards (as one would expect, given he's the 3rd line center), yet he's scored 5 points in his past half season, and is being outscored by the entire 4th line. Of course he's costing the team offense.

We may want to come to the conclusion that his solid defense makes that cost worth it, but it's still a cost.

-AB

 

[Adama0905]

Another player who has played alongside 'scrubs' like McLeod and Tucker all season long, and another player who has almost doubled O'Reilly's offensive output over his last half season.

-AB

O'Reilly continues to play big minutes at key parts of the game, attempting to hold on to leads and shut the other top lines down. If he was playing badly, he wouldn't be playing those minutes. That's how I look at it. He is still a very important component to this team's success, so I won't harp him too much.

However, I do think it's funny to have big offensive expectations for him when he quite clearly isn't filling the bill in the O-end so far.

 

[ABasin]

And O'Reilly's role is double theirs in killing penalties and being on the ice in important situations (d-zone faceoffs, "holding" the lead in the final minute, etc). Why harp a teenager when he's helping us win in so many other ways?

Because I'm concerned about his lack of offense. I wholly agree that he's a good young hockey player, and his defense has been terrific for such a young player. Usually the young guys have it the other way around - they make some noise offensively, but can't find their own end of the ice without a compass (Svatos, Wolski, Hensick early on in their careers).

But, that doesn't mean we ignore a fact when a fact is in front of us. O'Reilly is simply not producing - at all - offensively. He's just not.

-AB

 

[detrude]

Wha....?

How can you say that he's not costing the team any offense? He most certainly is.

He's playing the 7th most minutes at ES of all forwards (as one would expect, given he's the 3rd line center), yet he's scored 5 points in his past half season, and is being outscored by the entire 4th line. Of course he's costing the team offense.

We may want to come to the conclusion that his solid defense makes that cost worth it, but it's still a cost.

-AB

The team still has no problem putting up 2+ goals on most nights without his scoring, so him hitting the proverbial wall really isn't an issue. If he were counted on to be a big producer in the top 6 it would be an issue, but he's not. So, he really isn't costing us anything in the offensive department because he's doing exactly what he's supposed to right now: kill penalties, play a (very) smart two-way game, and do all the other things one would expect out of a shut-down center. He certainly has room to grow in all areas, and I believe he'll put up more points as he gets more experience in the league, but right now I love what he's doing for the team and couldn't care less that he isn't burning up the score sheet.

 

[ABasin]

Are you messing with us?

No, not at all. I'm simply putting forth facts.

One thing about being fans, is that we tend to overlook certain 'ugly' things about players we like. 'Ugly' might not be the best word to use there, but I think you know what I mean. I just choose not to do that.

O'Reilly has an obvious hole in his game right now. He just does. It doesn't mean it won't be improved, or can't be, but overlooking it completely isn't a good idea either. The man isn't producing anything at all offensively right now. When you're a 3rd line forward being outscored by both Foote and Hannan over a half season, and being doubled in production by Darcy Tucker over that same elongated timeframe - it's an issue.

Now, you guys know what's going to happen now that I've littered this thread with O'Reilly's offensive downside. He's going to go out tonight and pony up 3 points. I remember I posted a thread about Stastny's lack of production earlier this season (which, I may add, was accurate right up until that evening), and he bagged all kinds of points immediately.

-AB

 

[kapzk]

Wha....?

How can you say that he's not costing the team any offense? He most certainly is.

He's playing the 7th most minutes at ES of all forwards (as one would expect, given he's the 3rd line center), yet he's scored 5 points in his past half season, and is being outscored by the entire 4th line. Of course he's costing the team offense.

We may want to come to the conclusion that his solid defense makes that cost worth it, but it's still a cost.

-AB

OK that is rediculous with what you just said. Who's cares if he doesnt pour down the points. I would take his defense over the offense any day. You are saying how much he has cost the team on offense look at the amount of opponents' scoring that he has saved on defense. Remember the guy is only 19 yrs old and as mentioned is the youngest player on our roster. Having him up here at the NHL level is only gonna do him and the franchise good. Who will you fill in for that offense that you are saying is being affected....Hensick?Stoa? We sure have seen exactly how well these guys can score on their stints with the team. Ryan O'Reilly has been one of our team's MVP!

 

[Goulet17]

O'Reilly will be fine. Being 18 years of age and serving as perhaps a team's top penalty killer and a key face off guy is amazing.

He can really handle the puck and is very good passer. IMO he won't be a prolific goal scorer as he has never been, even in major junior.

For comparisons sake, remember that players like Joe Thornton (7 pts. in 55 games) and Vincent Lecavalier (28 pts. in 82 games) struggled mightily to produce points as 18 year olds. O'Reilly will never produce points like those two players, but that is not where his value lies. Also, remember that O'Reilly has received virtual no power play time, unlike his young counterpart Duchene. O'Reilly has focused almost exclusively on defense at the expense of better offensive production IMO.

Frankly, I am surprised we are even having this conversation. O'Reilly's value will never be as a major point producer IMO. His value will be as a great defensive forward, faceoff guy, and leader who occasionally chips in offensively.

O'Reilly will always be the kind of guy whose value increases astronomically by the time the Stanley Cup playoffs roll around.

 

[Gumballhead]

No, not at all. I'm simply putting forth facts.

One thing about being fans, is that we tend to overlook certain 'ugly' things about players we like. 'Ugly' might not be the best word to use there, but I think you know what I mean. I just choose not to do that.

O'Reilly has an obvious hole in his game right now. He just does. It doesn't mean it won't be improved, or can't be, but overlooking it completely isn't a good idea either. The man isn't producing anything at all offensively right now. When you're a 3rd line forward being outscored by both Foote and Hannan over a half season, and being doubled in production by Darcy Tucker over that same elongated timeframe - it's an issue.

Now, you guys know what's going to happen now that I've littered this thread with O'Reilly's offensive downside. He's going to go out tonight and pony up 3 points. I remember I posted a thread about Stastny's lack of production earlier this season (which, I may add, was accurate right up until that evening), and he bagged all kinds of points immediately.

-AB

If he gets going, we're going to score 6 a game. But seriously, how much offense do you expect from our third line center? I don't mean that facetiously -- how many points from a third line center puts you in the zone of not being concerned (about their offense)?

You are correct that he's been adding basically nothing to our offense, but I personally don't take that as an indicator that he won't.

 

[ABasin]

The team still has no problem putting up 2+ goals on most nights without his scoring, so him hitting the proverbial wall really isn't an issue.

I would hope the team could score at least two goals per game. That's no winning number.

In those past 43 games, the Avs have scored two goals or less 17 times and lost 14 of those games. So, the Avs couldn't manage a 3rd goal in 40% of the games over the past half season. Is this an acceptable number? I haven't checked how other playoff teams have done, so I don't know.

If he were counted on to be a big producer in the top 6 it would be an issue, but he's not. So, he really isn't costing us anything in the offensive department because he's doing exactly what he's supposed to right now: kill penalties, play a (very) smart two-way game,

It may be a smart two-way game, but it's only productive one-way.

-AB

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Wha....?

How can you say that he's not costing the team any offense? He most certainly is.

He's playing the 7th most minutes at ES of all forwards (as one would expect, given he's the 3rd line center), yet he's scored 5 points in his past half season, and is being outscored by the entire 4th line. Of course he's costing the team offense.

We may want to come to the conclusion that his solid defense makes that cost worth it, but it's still a cost.

-AB

Because not every minute of even strength time is used all out offensively. A player who cost the team offensively is someone who fumble passes, who turns it over in the offensive zone/making bad passes, making his linemates worse. None of that describes O'Reilly's, hes just very safe.

Ryan's role is to eat up the minutes of the opposition's offensive players and hes doing a fine job at it. Right now we don't have three scoring lines, we don't have the personel for it. Getting Kevin Porter with O'Reilly has helped him a lot though, I think in the future the 3rd line will be a two-way line that can contribute significantly on offense, but right now, its strictly a checking line, so the ice time per point is not that important.

 

[ABasin]

OK that is rediculous with what you just said. Who's cares if he doesnt pour down the points. I would take his defense over the offense any day. You are saying how much he has cost the team on offense look at the amount of opponents' scoring that he has saved on defense.

OK, I expected some people to miss the point, but you've *really* missed it.

There's no question at all that O'Reilly is a good player, and especially a good defensive one. And he has helped the Avs win much more than he's hurt them. Can we all agree that I've complemented him appreciably here?

Now, all of that being so, it doesn't mitigate the fact that he's doing nothing on earth offensively, and hasn't for months. Scott Hannan does all kinds of things defensively for this team as a defenseman, and HANNAN HAS OUTSCORED O'REILLY OVER THE PAST HALF SEASON.

How can anyone defend that? O'Reilly is a deficient offensively right now as an NHL player. That's all I'm saying.

-AB

 

[ABasin]

If he gets going, we're going to score 6 a game. But seriously, how much offense do you expect from our third line center? I don't mean that facetiously -- how many points from a third line center puts you in the zone of not being concerned (about their offense)?

You are correct that he's been adding basically nothing to our offense, but I personally don't take that as an indicator that he won't.

I don't take it as an indicator that he won't either. It's just not happening at all right now.

If a third line center scored at a 30 point pace per year - and played the type of defense that O'Reilly plays - I'm perfectly OK with it. A 10 point pace is not OK.

-AB

 

[detrude]

I would hope the team could score at least two goals per game. That's no winning number.

In those past 43 games, the Avs have scored two goals or less 17 times and lost 14 of those games. So, the Avs couldn't manage a 3rd goal in 40% of the games over the past half season. Is this an acceptable number? I haven't checked how other playoff teams have done, so I don't know.

From a team this young and inexperienced, it is acceptable. The fact that this team is in the playoff hunt doesn't make me lose sight of the fact that this team is the youngest team in the league, and young teams are wildly inconsistent. Blown leads, bad games, and streaky scoring are all characteristics of inexperienced teams. I'd love for this team to just skip these growing pains, but that's just not going to happen. Young teams are a rollercoaster ride, and I think we've been very fortunate this year that the team has played very well overall.

It may be a smart two-way game, but it's only productive one-way.

-AB

The fact that this team is a +25 (fifth in the league, by the way) in goal differential says it doesn't matter.

 

[kapzk]

OK, I expected some people to miss the point, but you've *really* missed it.

There's no question at all that O'Reilly is a good player, and especially a good defensive one. And he has helped the Avs win much more than he's hurt them. Can we all agree that I've complemented him appreciably here?

Now, all of that being so, it doesn't mitigate the fact that he's doing nothing on earth offensively, and hasn't for months. Scott Hannan does all kinds of things defensively for this team as a defenseman, and HANNAN HAS OUTSCORED O'REILLY OVER THE PAST HALF SEASON.

How can anyone defend that? O'Reilly is a deficient offensively right now as an NHL player. That's all I'm saying.

-AB

okay yes i understand wat you mean...didnt mean to get so serious at you or anything lol...i know we all want O'Reilly to put up some decent numbers but its been mention time and time again, the guys he has been playing are not players that you can ride an offense with, you got tucker (18pts), McLeod (14 pts), and Svatos (10pts) and that being said take a look at these guys +/-...-6, -12, -12, respectively, for those three (all three are ranked last three on teams +/-). I think you can connect the dots now, O'Reilly has been playing with three guys that not only have been awful offensively but even more ridiculous on defense. So that put's O'Reilly's responsiblity on the defensive end even more higher. So he's not gonna have much of an opportunity to produce offensively.