What PPG player will O'Reilly be?

[thedoctor]

I don't take it as an indicator that he won't either. It's just not happening at all right now.

If a third line center scored at a 30 point pace per year - and played the type of defense that O'Reilly plays - I'm perfectly OK with it. A 10 point pace is not OK.

-AB

I think he'll be fine. I mean, he *is* scoring at about the 30 point pace for his short career. it's just this smaller sample set that's concerning.

Look, you were raising alarms about Duchene during that 20 game stretch of non-production as well, and look how that's turned out. young guys have prolonged stretches of inconsistent production, especially 18 year old rookies. this was the risk we took when we went uber-young. I agree this level of production is not going to work long term, but patience is required. This is too small a sample set for such young players to get this worked up over.

Actually, maybe we shoulda re-signed Joey if you wanted more consistent 3rd line center production, hm? Seriously, when O'Reilly gets better wingers back and pulls out of this skid, he'll be fine. Hell, I'm kinda glad of the slump so we can get a reprieve from the OMG O'REILLY VS DUCHENE crap spouted around here, so long as he does pull out of it.

Next AB production soapbox: Yip, when he comes back to earth.

 

[PeterTheGreat]

AB hates O'Reilly!!1!11!1

Seriously though, I get what he's saying. O'Reilly is still a very valuable player for us, but it would be nice for him to get some points once in a while too. I don't think it's for lack of skill though. O'Reilly doesn't create offense by himself, he's just not that kind of player. He is a very good passer and has good vision, so he needs finishers on his line to bury his passes. Plus O'Reilly is thrown out in a lot of defensive situations where it eats up a lot of his ice time and he can't focus on the offense as much.

 

[thedoctor]

AB hates O'Reilly!!1!11!1

Seriously though, I get what he's saying. O'Reilly is still a very valuable player for us, but it would be nice for him to get some points once in a while too. I don't think it's for lack of skill though. O'Reilly doesn't create offense by himself, he's just not that kind of player. He is a very good passer and has good vision, so he needs finishers on his line to bury his passes. Plus O'Reilly is thrown out in a lot of defensive situations where it eats up a lot of his ice time and he can't focus on the offense as much.

I get that too, but it's way too early to start raising hell over this. when he's gone a year+ on a 10 point pace or his defensive game goes for a comparable stretch, I'll get concerned.

 

[Freudian]

No, not at all. I'm simply putting forth facts.

One thing about being fans, is that we tend to overlook certain 'ugly' things about players we like. 'Ugly' might not be the best word to use there, but I think you know what I mean. I just choose not to do that.

O'Reilly has an obvious hole in his game right now. He just does. It doesn't mean it won't be improved, or can't be, but overlooking it completely isn't a good idea either. The man isn't producing anything at all offensively right now. When you're a 3rd line forward being outscored by both Foote and Hannan over a half season, and being doubled in production by Darcy Tucker over that same elongated timeframe - it's an issue.

Now, you guys know what's going to happen now that I've littered this thread with O'Reilly's offensive downside. He's going to go out tonight and pony up 3 points. I remember I posted a thread about Stastny's lack of production earlier this season (which, I may add, was accurate right up until that evening), and he bagged all kinds of points immediately.

-AB

The problem is that you are only looking at the part of the season when he isn't producing, completely ignoring the part of the season when he was producing and then claim "he isn't producing".

He is on pace for a 27p season, which is a higher pace than that of David Jones in his first two seasons and about the same as Stewart had his first season. He is doing is fine for a 18-19 year old third line center. If you have any particular reason for why the first half of the season shouldn't count and the second part should, I'd like to hear it.

Sure it would have been nice to see him, Svatos, McLeod and Tucker produce more but our bottom six has been very unproductive as a whole. Without all the injuries things might have been different.

 

[ABasin]

The fact that this team is a +25 (fifth in the league, by the way) in goal differential says it doesn't matter.

So then, since the team is +25 in goal differential, do we not care about any individual statistic? Do none of them matter?

-AB

 

[Granlund2Pulkkinen*]

Mike Fisher type player.

Hopefully he gets girls like Mike Fisher too

 

[detrude]

So then, since the team is +25 in goal differential, do we not care about any individual statistic? Do none of them matter?

-AB

Individual stats matter less than the team winning, at least to me. The +25 shows that the team can score enough on any given night to win, even if our third line center is "only" shutting down the other team and playing in a defense-first role. But that point got lost in the shuffle.

Right now O'Reilly, even though he isn't scoring, is helping the team win. If your hardon for stats blinds you from that then there is nothing I can say that will change your opinion. Ever. This isn't the first time you've overreacted to a (young) player not "pulling his weight offensively," and I'd be willing to bet it won't be the last. Honestly, AB, who's next on your list of young guys to target? You've already nailed Duchene, Wolski, and now O'Reilly. What do you expect out of young guys while they're growing into their game?

 

[PeterTheGreat]

Individual stats matter less than the team winning, at least to me. The +25 shows that the team can score enough on any given night to win, even if our third line center is "only" shutting down the other team and playing in a defense-first role. But that point got lost in the shuffle.

Right now O'Reilly, even though he isn't scoring, is helping the team win. If your hardon for stats blinds you from that then there is nothing I can say that will change your opinion. Ever. This isn't the first time you've overreacted to a (young) player not "pulling his weight offensively," and I'd be willing to bet it won't be the last. Honestly, AB, who's next on your list of young guys to target? You've already nailed Duchene, Wolski, and now O'Reilly. What do you expect out of young guys while they're growing into their game?

I remember him nailing David Jones for not scoring the season before this one as well. Players take time to develop.

 

[ABasin]

The problem is that you are only looking at the part of the season when he isn't producing, completely ignoring the part of the season when he was producing and then claim "he isn't producing".

That's exactly correct. I had the same criticism of Wolski this season. I mean, over the first third of the season, Wolski scored at a 45 goal pace. Over the next quarter of the season, he scored at a 8 goal pace. Which player is real? It's a tough question, and it's risky just to say that his overall total is X, because that scoring drought is over a long stretch of games. O'Reilly's is even longer.

I don't mind a non-steady scoring pace over the course of a season. But, when you have such a hugely slanted scoring pace for short parts of a season (or lack of scoring for long parts), IMO it's something you have to take a closer look at. The reason is, you don't really know which player you have: the one who scored at a really nice pace early in the season, or the one who is offensively dead right now.

For example, let me draw you a hypothetical analogy. I think we're all very happy with Anderson's numbers this year:

35W-24L
.924 save%
2.46 gaa

Great season, and he's been generally consistent all year, yes?

Let's say that instead, his season went like this: In his first 15 games, he faced 50 shots per night, had 15 shutouts, and the Avs went 15-0. Then, since that 15th game (over 45 games), Anderson did this:

20W-24L
.874 save%
3.27 gaa

Over the course of the season, he'd have exactly the same overall W-L record - the same overall save% - and the same overall gaa as he does right now.

But, would you feel the same about it?

-AB

 

[StanGetz*]

That's exactly correct. I had the same criticism of Wolski this season. I mean, over the first third of the season, Wolski scored at a 45 goal pace. Over the next quarter of the season, he scored at a 8 goal pace. Which player is real? It's a tough question, and it's risky just to say that his overall total is X, because that scoring drought is over a long stretch of games. O'Reilly's is even longer.

I don't mind a non-steady scoring pace over the course of a season. But, when you have such a hugely slanted scoring pace for short parts of a season (or lack of scoring for long parts), IMO it's something you have to take a closer look at. The reason is, you don't really know which player you have: the one who scored at a really nice pace early in the season, or the one who is offensively dead right now.

For example, let me draw you a hypothetical analogy. I think we're all very happy with Anderson's numbers this year:

35W-24L
.924 save%
2.46 gaa

Great season, and he's been generally consistent all year, yes?

Let's say that instead, his season went like this: In his first 15 games, he faced 50 shots per night, had 15 shutouts, and the Avs went 15-0. Then, since that 15th game (over 45 games), Anderson did this:

20W-24L
.874 save%
3.27 gaa

Over the course of the season, he'd have exactly the same overall W-L record - the same overall save% - and the same overall gaa as he does right now.

But, would you feel the same about it?

-AB

You're comparing a 3rd line center with a goaltender who starts 70 games a season. What is your point exactly? The only thing I EXPECT out of my 3rd line center is to be very solid defensively, shutting down the other guys top line. All points are a bonus to me. I EXPECT my starting goaltender to provide solid numbers all season.

If Andy has a 3.27GAA and an .874%, it would be very disappointing. On the flip side, if RoR was a -30, I'd be bummed.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

That's exactly correct. I had the same criticism of Wolski this season. I mean, over the first third of the season, Wolski scored at a 45 goal pace. Over the next quarter of the season, he scored at a 8 goal pace. Which player is real? It's a tough question, and it's risky just to say that his overall total is X, because that scoring drought is over a long stretch of games. O'Reilly's is even longer.

I don't mind a non-steady scoring pace over the course of a season. But, when you have such a hugely slanted scoring pace for short parts of a season (or lack of scoring for long parts), IMO it's something you have to take a closer look at. The reason is, you don't really know which player you have: the one who scored at a really nice pace early in the season, or the one who is offensively dead right now.

For example, let me draw you a hypothetical analogy. I think we're all very happy with Anderson's numbers this year:

35W-24L
.924 save%
2.46 gaa

Great season, and he's been generally consistent all year, yes?

Let's say that instead, his season went like this: In his first 15 games, he faced 50 shots per night, had 15 shutouts, and the Avs went 15-0. Then, since that 15th game (over 45 games), Anderson did this:

20W-24L
.874 save%
3.27 gaa

Over the course of the season, he'd have exactly the same overall W-L record - the same overall save% - and the same overall gaa as he does right now.

But, would you feel the same about it?

-AB

Goaltending is not comparable at all to the offensive productions of a 3rd line checking center. If Andy was slumping that badly over 44 games I'd be VERY worried. O'Reilly not scoring over much 40ish games while still playing fantastic defense on most nights, fine by me.

 

[PeterTheGreat]

I would hope the team could score at least two goals per game. That's no winning number.

In those past 43 games, the Avs have scored two goals or less 17 times and lost 14 of those games. So, the Avs couldn't manage a 3rd goal in 40% of the games over the past half season. Is this an acceptable number? I haven't checked how other playoff teams have done, so I don't know.

-AB

You know we're 7th in the league in scoring right?

Give the guys a break. What did you want, for us to be top 5 in scoring when everyone thought we'd be dead last in the West?

 

[Freudian]

I don't mind a non-steady scoring pace over the course of a season. But, when you have such a hugely slanted scoring pace for short parts of a season (or lack of scoring for long parts), IMO it's something you have to take a closer look at. The reason is, you don't really know which player you have: the one who scored at a really nice pace early in the season, or the one who is offensively dead right now.

If it was Stastny or Hejduk there might be reason to worry. When it is a 18-year old center there is every reason not to freak out.

Rookie season is about learning what junior tricks work and which don't work. Especially for very young players. It took Duchene a while to figure it out (and he still is learning by the week). It will take O'Reilly longer to figure out since he has less skill and less speed.

If 21-year old O'Reilly is still a 25-30p guy I think we should worry about why he doesn't produce more. And if he still is playing with Tucker and Svatos by then we are in deep trouble.

 

[Frenchy]

he's only 19 and already playing like a veteran , but i think it's far too early to make a prediction about what kind of points he should put on.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

I'd say he averages 15 goals and 25 assists for 40 points a season. Obviously gives no credit to his defensive work, faceoffs, and ability to play against top forwards, but yeah... I'd say 40 point average.

 

[ABasin]

Individual stats matter less than the team winning, at least to me.

Oh, I agree. I've enjoyed the team this more so than many other years as a fan of the franchise, and I've been on board since 1989.

Right now O'Reilly, even though he isn't scoring, is helping the team win.

Again, no question that's true.

If your hardon for stats blinds you from that then there is nothing I can say that will change your opinion. Ever.

See, I put forth my opinion in a completely polite way, and backed it (or tried to) by factual information and common sense. And all along, I suspected that my stating unpopular facts concerning a popular player would lead to insults getting thrown my way.

However, I didn't expect it to come from you. Ah well....

This isn't the first time you've overreacted to a (young) player not "pulling his weight offensively," and I'd be willing to bet it won't be the last.

In what way am I overreacting? I'm simply saying that O'Reilly's offensive game is lacking. And it is. I never said he wouldn't improve, couldn't improve, or isn't adding great value to the team. In fact, I've said - in this very thread - those VERY things. Several times.

Honestly, AB, who's next on your list of young guys to target?

Well, if another young forward getting big minutes gets outscored by Craig Anderson, I'll probably bring the fact up.

You've already nailed Duchene,

"Nailed"? I believe I brought up his early lack of production, and attributed it to a lack of accuracy on his open shots, and the fact that he didn't use his linemates very well (of course, early on Tucker was one of them). If you'd like to debate whether Duchene does or hasn't missed the net a lot from 15 feet out this year, I'll be happy to engage in that discussion. His finding of open spaces in the offensive zone while in possession of the puck, and his ability to find his teammates, have both improved immensely this season. That's been awesome to see.

Wolski,

...who I asserted was often lazy and very streaky; and I asserted that it would be difficult to discern which player they had: the 45-goal pace guy from early in the season, or the 8-goal pace guy at the end. Obviously, Sherman had similar concerns.

What is the problem with me bringing those points up?

and now O'Reilly.

Who has been outscored by Adam Foote over the past half season.

What do you expect out of young guys while they're growing into their game?

To score more points than Adam Foote?

Look, I'm sorry if you don't like my bringing up weaknesses of the players on our team. I don't do so randomly, but I feel I take an honest look at them and their performance. I perfectly understand that young players and teams have their ups and downs, but I don't simply excuse everything due to age. Nor do I simply assume because a guy is young, that he is somehow going to miraculously continue to improve at some wonderful pace, just because he's 18 years old right now. If that were true, Peter Mueller (after that wonderful rookie season at age 18) would be leading the NHL in scoring right now.

You are welcome to disagree, and I enjoy the debate. Why you have to throw "hardon" and "you've nailed..." garbage at me, I don't know.

-AB

 

[detrude]

If it was Stastny or Hejduk there might be reason to worry. When it is a 18-year old center there is every reason not to freak out.

Rookie season is about learning what junior tricks work and which don't work. Especially for very young players. It took Duchene a while to figure it out (and he still is learning by the week). It will take O'Reilly longer to figure out since he has less skill and less speed.

If 21-year old O'Reilly is still a 25-30p guy I think we should worry about why he doesn't produce more. And if he still is playing with Tucker and Svatos by then we are in deep trouble.

Even then, points won't tell the whole story with him. I truly believe O'Reilly has untapped offensive potential, but if he "only" turns out to be a 40-50 point center I'd be more than ecstatic given how good he is defensively. I'd do back flips if he got some better linemates and put up 60+, but I don't expect it considering Stastny and Duchene will likely be ahead of him for the foreseeable future.

 

[ABasin]

You're comparing a 3rd line center with a goaltender who starts 70 games a season. What is your point exactly?

That you have to take into account how overall numbers were gained. Consistently or somewhat consistently - or in very short or long streaks.

-AB

 

[kapzk]

AB u are overlooking way too many aspects when you criticize the players. First off, you should acknowledge the role of the players. Ryan O'Reilly, 18 yr old is our 3rd line centre not a 1st nor 2nd. So we do not technically rely on him producing offensively, when he is not even in our top 6 scoring depth. His role is to be a primary shut down player. And he has undoubtingly excelled in that position by contributing defensively, and playing in critical roles such as faceoffs, and the penalty kill.

Also the Avs have had a successful season thus far, which should draw less criticism against them. Let's say avs were not even in the playoff picture (as predicted b4 the season began) then you can begin to criticize the their game.playeres. I am not saying the Avs have no flaws since they are winning, but considering what the team's expectations were in the beginning of the season you should quiet down AB. O'Reilly's pace of scoring has been in a "slant" as you have mentioned, however why do we have to worry about that? It's not like we had O'Reilly written in for guarenteed 40+ pts. O'Reilly has done a terrific job doing what he is supposed to and that's what all matters. In fact he has exceeded the fans', the coaches, and managements' expectations of his role on the team.

 

[ABasin]

Goaltending is not comparable at all to the offensive productions of a 3rd line checking center. If Andy was slumping that badly over 44 games I'd be VERY worried. O'Reilly not scoring over much 40ish games while still playing fantastic defense on most nights, fine by me.

If that 40ish games is indicative of the player's talent, it's not fine by me. A winning team needs more than 3-4 goals per season out of it's 3rd line players.

-AB

 

[ABasin]

I think he'll be fine. I mean, he *is* scoring at about the 30 point pace for his short career. it's just this smaller sample set that's concerning.

Actually, it's the larger sample set. Dudes played 67 games. Produced well in a 24 game stretch, not so well in a 43 game stretch.

Look, you were raising alarms about Duchene during that 20 game stretch of non-production as well, and look how that's turned out. young guys have prolonged stretches of inconsistent production, especially 18 year old rookies. this was the risk we took when we went uber-young. I agree this level of production is not going to work long term, but patience is required. This is too small a sample set for such young players to get this worked up over.

I'm not the one worked up over this discussion, I assure you.

Next AB production soapbox: Yip, when he comes back to earth.

I love Yip's game. I don't see how he could keep up the scoring pace he started with, but he's a good player, I think.

-AB

 

[ABasin]

AB u are overlooking way too many aspects when you criticize the players. First off, you should acknowledge the role of the players. Ryan O'Reilly, 18 yr old is our 3rd line centre not a 1st nor 2nd. So we do not technically rely on him producing offensively, when he is not even in our top 6 scoring depth. His role is to be a primary shut down player. And he has undoubtingly excelled in that position by contributing defensively, and playing in critical roles such as faceoffs, and the penalty kill.

Also the Avs have had a successful season thus far, which should draw less criticism against them. Let's say avs were not even in the playoff picture (as predicted b4 the season began) then you can begin to criticize the their game.playeres. I am not saying the Avs have no flaws since they are winning, but considering what the team's expectations were in the beginning of the season you should quiet down AB.

I should quiet down? Because my opinion is different than yours? Let's be careful with that, shall we?

Everything you say there is true, but we still have a situation where our 3rd line center is being outscored by 7 defensemen over the past half season. And that includes Scott Hannan (who has had more defensive responsibility than any player on the Avalanche, except Anderson), and Adam Foote, who is a defensive defenseman who can barely move anymore.

What began this whole discussion, was my musing whether O'Reilly's offensive development was hurt by bringing him up to the Avs this season. I'm not saying they shouldn't have done it, I'm just wondering if the offensive development was hurt. Not that we'll ever know.

-AB

 

[iAvs]

AB u are overlooking way too many aspects when you criticize the players. First off, you should acknowledge the role of the players. Ryan O'Reilly, 18 yr old is our 3rd line centre not a 1st nor 2nd. So we do not technically rely on him producing offensively, when he is not even in our top 6 scoring depth. His role is to be a primary shut down player. And he has undoubtingly excelled in that position by contributing defensively, and playing in critical roles such as faceoffs, and the penalty kill.

Also the Avs have had a successful season thus far, which should draw less criticism against them. Let's say avs were not even in the playoff picture (as predicted b4 the season began) then you can begin to criticize the their game.playeres. I am not saying the Avs have no flaws since they are winning, but considering what the team's expectations were in the beginning of the season you should quiet down AB. O'Reilly's pace of scoring has been in a "slant" as you have mentioned, however why do we have to worry about that? It's not like we had O'Reilly written in for guarenteed 40+ pts. O'Reilly has done a terrific job doing what he is supposed to and that's what all matters. In fact he has exceeded the fans', the coaches, and managements' expectations of his role on the team.

Exactly! If the kid wasn't cutting it, don't you think Sacco would've sent him packing by now?? I'm with you on this one, RoR is doing what is asked of him, obviously. If he can chip in goals, that's great, but he's being asked to shut down the opposition 5 on 5 and on the PK. He's going to develop into a player soon, I have no doubt. I think some fans have unrealistic expectations for his goal output. I think they CAN and SHOULD get better, but 30 goals? That's not happening.

 

[Punished ROR]

I don't really think it's an issue. I'll agree his slump numbers aren't pretty, but how many rookies can you recall that have played like O'Reilly? Normally, exciting rookies intrigue you based on their raw talent, speed, enthusiasm to be in the game -- virtues more or less relative to youth, that diminish over time, as they enter their physical prime and fine-tune the smaller issues in their game.

O'Reilly plays like he's freakin' 36. I don't expect him to be a big time offensive contributor at any point in his career, but if all he has to learn to be a star in this league at 19 years of age is how to put the puck in the net a few more times per year, we're pretty damned lucky.

Really, the issue kinda comes down to this for me: would we be better off pursuing another option in the off-season? I actually do believe that O'Reilly's offense would benefit from 1 or 2 seasons in the A -- he could learn to be the go-to guy on the first or second line. I'm not sure what adverse effect it might have on his confidence, but there is that benefit, because I don't think the Avs will ever rely on him to be a goal scorer.

Anyhow, I can't think of any UFAs out there who could bring a defensive responsibility in the same neighborhood as O'Reilly while scoring enough to justify the possible hit to O'Reilly's confidence when we demote him. And I certainly wouldn't want to pursue any trades, thus giving up valuable future pieces, for such a player -- when we have one, only 19 years old, and we're still a few years away from being legitimate cup contenders.

edit: I'd be more worried about his FO %, since that is a much more direct component of the role he's expected to play on this team. But even then, I think he's doing fine.

 

[StanGetz*]

That you have to take into account how overall numbers were gained. Consistently or somewhat consistently - or in very short or long streaks.

-AB

That's fine. He's been a very inconsistent scorer, but that's only a small slice of his game. He's on pace for ~25pts. Would you be more pleased if he scored 1 point every 3 games? Are you expecting him to score 40+ points on the third line? What are your expectations for him?