What is the fair market value of captain Andrew Ladd?

[potroaster]

I don't think Ladd is a 6 million dollar man. He certainly is with a 4 year deal. My earlier post was 4x5.5. Ok I have countered. I think this might be easier if the dollar was at par right now.

Ladd and company are testing the waters. You and I would do the same. If they want 6x6, they are realizing now that this is not gonna happen. Cooler heads will prevail, and they will settle on 26 for 4 years. Still gonna hurt a little bit.

 

[Jets4Life]

I don't think Ladd is a 6 million dollar man. He certainly is with a 4 year deal. My earlier post was 4x5.5. Ok I have countered. I think this might be easier if the dollar was at par right now.

Ladd and company are testing the waters. You and I would do the same. If they want 6x6, they are realizing now that this is not gonna happen. Cooler heads will prevail, and they will settle on 26 for 4 years. Still gonna hurt a little bit.

I would rather sign Ladd for 6 years. Maybe a contract between $35-38 million. I think Ladd is content with Winnipeg. If his contract is longer, have it front loaded, as the last thing the Jets need is to buyout any contracts, if Ladd cannot play past age 35.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm going to use this as a starting point if you don't mind as I have heard Lawless mention this number a few times. So potential and confirmed cap hits for the 2016-17 season;

Ladd - 6.67
Wheeler - 5.6
Little - 4.7
Stafford - 4.35
Scheifele - 5.0 (assuming the trend of signing top RFA's long term and being conservative)
Lowry - 4.0 (same idea as Scheifele)
MP - 3.0
Burmi - 1.6
Thor - 1.2
Enstrom - 5.75
Myers - 5.5
Buff - 7.0 (being conservative)
Trouba - 6.0 (being conservative because if I was his agent Id be looking for more long term)
Stu - 2.65
Chariot - .875
Postma - .887
Pavs - 3.9

That is 17 players past ELCs and under contract for a total of: $68.32

Now lets fill out the roster with the best of our prospects, this is 2 years away after all.

Ehlers - 1.594
Morrissey - 1.363
Armia - 1.244
Petan - .863
Copp - .925
Helly or Hutch - 1.0 (low ball estimate)

Our 23 player roster = $ 75.671

If the players use their 5% cap escalator in 2016-17 the cap will be 74.97 M.

Just signing our current players, and before our current wave of top flight prospects get past their ELCs we are all of a sudden a cap team. IMO that is why Chevy needs to navigate ever so carefully in his negotiations with Ladd and Buff.

Pretty good analysis I think. There might be a small adjustment up or down here and there but should come out about the same.

I agree with your general points and salary structure except for Lowry. The only young RFA's that are getting locked up to long term deals right out of their entry level positions are impact players (Top 6 or top 4 dmen) I don't expect that trend to change, the third line/depth players will continue to ink bridge deals imo.

Agree about Lowry. I think KB has him ~1-1.5 mil high unless he has a really outstanding season this year.

 

[SensibleGuy]

I'm starting to think the Jets as an organization have reached the conclusion that it's OK to let valuable assets play out their contracts and ride off into the sunset as long as you have good young players coming up at the same time. I mean if you have guys like Trouba, Morrissey, Myers in the pipeline maybe it's OK to let Buff play out his last year and then go to the highest bidder. Maybe Ladd plays this year and then a young guy is ready to step up and take his place. You can let assets go for nothing as long as you are gaining assets for "nothing" (as in drafting well). Of course all teams draft, but I guess the trick is in managing to do it a little better than most other teams...you hope.

 

[Huffer]

I'm starting to think the Jets as an organization have reached the conclusion that it's OK to let valuable assets play out their contracts and ride off into the sunset as long as you have good young players coming up at the same time. I mean if you have guys like Trouba, Morrissey, Myers in the pipeline maybe it's OK to let Buff play out his last year and then go to the highest bidder. Maybe Ladd plays this year and then a young guy is ready to step up and take his place. You can let assets go for nothing as long as you are gaining assets for "nothing" (as in drafting well). Of course all teams draft, but I guess the trick is in managing to do it a little better than most other teams...you hope.

I'm not convinced the Jets have come to that conclusion, and personally I think it would be a poor way to run an organization.

 

[SensibleGuy]

Oh I'm not convinced of anything and I agree that it's a risky (to say the least) way to go about things. Otoh, maybe it makes a bit of sense if the only way to resign those assets is to overpay them - or to pay them more than you think you can afford to at least...

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

At this point the Jets have only given out two contracts that exceeded 5 years
Bogo- 7 years which came after his 5 th year and when he was 23 years old
Wheeler 6 years with 1 rfa year remaining and he was 27 years old.

As an organization in draft and develope mode and shrewd I doubt they extend Buff and Ladd at 6 years +

5 years max for players entering their 30 s I do not think we should be rushing to believe Lawless take on this or the buzz on our boards.

The Jets have more negoate power than we think.... Ladd 5 yrs at 6 mill is on the table firm ...... We want you as our Captain moving frwd.... Other wise play out your remaining year.

 

[Huffer]

Oh I'm not convinced of anything and I agree that it's a risky (to say the least) way to go about things. Otoh, maybe it makes a bit of sense if the only way to resign those assets is to overpay them - or to pay them more than you think you can afford to at least...

Overpaying is definitely a bad thing for sure that can hurt you down the road.

I think you can let a few players play out their contracts from time to time. Frolik was a good example. We were in a playoff run, there was a "chance" to re-sign him in the off-season, and a return would probably have been good, but not great.

My personal philosophy would be to never do that with higher end players that could bring in significant packages in a trade. I look at the potential return of those players as raw materials coming down the assembly line. Each team starts each draft with 7 picks which then turn into prospects, which then hopefully turn into players down the line. If a team can start to add more raw materials than other teams you have a better chance due to the odds to uncover better prospects, which could turn into better players. Or you can trade some of those raw materials if you feel you have enough for some finished product from someone who needs the raw materials more.

The Jets, by nature of really not being on a lot of players desirable landing places, and not likely being a cap team, really need to have a steady stream of talent coming up the pipeline at all times on ELC's and second contracts IMO.

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

At this point the Jets have only given out two contracts that exceeded 5 years
Bogo- 7 years which came after his 5 th year and when he was 23 years old
Wheeler 6 years with 1 rfa year remaining and he was 27 years old.

As an organization in draft and develope mode and shrewd I doubt they extend Buff and Ladd at 6 years +

5 years max for players entering their 30 s I do not think we should be rushing to believe Lawless take on this or the buzz on our boards.

The Jets have more negoate power than we think.... Ladd 5 yrs at 6 mill is on the table firm ...... We want you as our Captain moving frwd.... Other wise play out your remaining year.

Reasons

-Ladd wants to finish what he started..... And he likes being Captain..... If he goes to another team he won't be " the man" just a veteran voice.
-Ladd wants to win..... He has won everywhere he has been. All the experts rate our prospects top 3 in the league and the Jets as a up and comming team ready to challenge for the Cup.
- as always security....... Playing out the last year of his contract and declining a 5 year 30 mill deal that's on the table to force a slightly better deal with an extra year is extremely risky( a bird in the hand) ...... What if he gets hurt next year and that offer is gone. Also he is comming off Hernia Surgery and he could have a down year in his contract year....... A year that he turns 30 in December

5 yrs max ..... 6 mill is on the table

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm starting to think the Jets as an organization have reached the conclusion that it's OK to let valuable assets play out their contracts and ride off into the sunset as long as you have good young players coming up at the same time. I mean if you have guys like Trouba, Morrissey, Myers in the pipeline maybe it's OK to let Buff play out his last year and then go to the highest bidder. Maybe Ladd plays this year and then a young guy is ready to step up and take his place. You can let assets go for nothing as long as you are gaining assets for "nothing" (as in drafting well). Of course all teams draft, but I guess the trick is in managing to do it a little better than most other teams...you hope.

I'm not convinced the Jets have come to that conclusion, and personally I think it would be a poor way to run an organization.

Oh I'm not convinced of anything and I agree that it's a risky (to say the least) way to go about things. Otoh, maybe it makes a bit of sense if the only way to resign those assets is to overpay them - or to pay them more than you think you can afford to at least...

That ignores the option of trading them before it gets that far.
I think you may be partially right though. They seem to have decided that it is OK in some cases. That is clearly what happened with Frolik. They were not willing to pay what was required to keep him and they preferred 1 season of him playing for 3.3 mil to the return they might have gotten for him last summer whatever that might have been.

How that will apply to Ladd and Buff is a different story. What kind of return might we get for them now? What is 1 season of them playing worth?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

At this point the Jets have only given out two contracts that exceeded 5 years
Bogo- 7 years which came after his 5 th year and when he was 23 years old
Wheeler 6 years with 1 rfa year remaining and he was 27 years old.

As an organization in draft and develope mode and shrewd I doubt they extend Buff and Ladd at 6 years +

5 years max for players entering their 30 s I do not think we should be rushing to believe Lawless take on this or the buzz on our boards.

The Jets have more negoate power than we think.... Ladd 5 yrs at 6 mill is on the table firm ...... We want you as our Captain moving frwd.... Other wise play out your remaining year.

The bolded is not clear. What negotiating power are you describing? That 'take it or leave it' style of negotiating is not likely effective, IMO. Maybe the delay is because Chevy hasn't offered more than 4x5.5. He might leap at your 5x6. But simply saying 'take it or leave it' is not a demonstration of a strong negotiating position.

 

[CaptainChef]

I'm not convinced the Jets have come to that conclusion, and personally I think it would be a poor way to run an organization.

Agree. It hurt enough having a top 6 player like Frolic riding off for nothing. If they were to repeat that performance with either Ladd or Buff, that would be senseless.

 

[SensibleGuy]

I don't know. I mean you get a guy like Buff for a year at the end of his contract - he's inspired to go out and really play for a big pay day at the end of the season. Then, once he moves on to wherever, you have space to move one of your young guys up and you have cap space to maybe sign a free agent if you need to. Maybe not the end of the world...

Don't get me wrong. I'm all for trading these guys rather than letting them play out their contracts...but maybe we are kvetching about it a lot more than the franchise is. I'm not crazy about the notion of locking Buff up for 6 years or something at 6 or more per.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't know. I mean you get a guy like Buff for a year at the end of his contract - he's inspired to go out and really play for a big pay day at the end of the season. Then, once he moves on to wherever, you have space to move one of your young guys up and you have cap space to maybe sign a free agent if you need to. Maybe not the end of the world...

Don't get me wrong. I'm all for trading these guys rather than letting them play out their contracts...but maybe we are kvetching about it a lot more than the franchise is. I'm not crazy about the notion of locking Buff up for 6 years or something at 6 or more per.

Up to a point, I agree. I have changed my opinion on this issue over the last year. There are a bunch of UFAs every year and they all left a team for nothing. So, not the end of the world.

OTOH I think you may be overvaluing that last year we get from the player before he leaves. I just don't like expiring assets. If we are in a position to mount a real challenge for the SC with the player in question but not without him then I see the value. Otherwise not so much. If traded at the draft or in the off-season he may bring roster players that will offset the single season loss. In Buff's case this year we would be trading from a position of surplus. We would not get a direct replacement but Buff is a premium player, a 1st pair D. If he brought a 2nd pair LD or a 2nd line winger we might actually be a better team without him.

I still say sign or trade. Doing neither is a fail .... but not the end of the world.

 

[ps241]

Up to a point, I agree. I have changed my opinion on this issue over the last year. There are a bunch of UFAs every year and they all left a team for nothing. So, not the end of the world.

OTOH I think you may be overvaluing that last year we get from the player before he leaves. I just don't like expiring assets. If we are in a position to mount a real challenge for the SC with the player in question but not without him then I see the value. Otherwise not so much. If traded at the draft or in the off-season he may bring roster players that will offset the single season loss. In Buff's case this year we would be trading from a position of surplus. We would not get a direct replacement but Buff is a premium player, a 1st pair D. If he brought a 2nd pair LD or a 2nd line winger we might actually be a better team without him.

I still say sign or trade. Doing neither is a fail .... but not the end of the world.

I tend to agree with the bolded. I don't want us to get in the habit of riding assets off the cliff but in my mind a worse result than zero return is a bad deal that you are stuck with long term.

This is Chevy's toughest summer by a long shot IMO. Older guys wanting to cash in on past glories. A Team that may be able to win a cup in 2 to 3 seasons if a couple of rookies step up and we catch a break. Maybe they need Ladd and or Buff to make the dream happen, maybe they are the guys that get in the way if they make Big cash and tail off? Dammed if you do dammed if you don't, back seat drivers buckle up.

Oh to have a crystal ball.

 

[nobody important]

I'd prefer to see a higher AAV and a shorter term, personally.

Totally on-board with this. Ladd is a great character guy, and you have to respect he was the first Thrasher to demonstrate his commitment to the move.

Still, he has some on-ice tendencies I find disturbing. Lackadaisical zone clearing, brain cramp penalties (which he has lessened). I think there is a team chemistry that benefits from retaining him, but not for too long.

And if I was Ladd (not that I could ever be), I wouldn't have a problem with that. Much like Iginla, he would not have to go on Bachelor NHL to find prospective suitors at contract expiration, and he could look for a sweet, overpaid deal with a contender (umm, assuming the Jets aren't a contender at that moment in time, you never know).

 

[Channelcat]

Reasons

-Ladd wants to finish what he started..... And he likes being Captain..... If he goes to another team he won't be " the man" just a veteran voice.
-Ladd wants to win..... He has won everywhere he has been. All the experts rate our prospects top 3 in the league and the Jets as a up and comming team ready to challenge for the Cup.
- as always security....... Playing out the last year of his contract and declining a 5 year 30 mill deal that's on the table to force a slightly better deal with an extra year is extremely risky( a bird in the hand) ...... What if he gets hurt next year and that offer is gone. Also he is comming off Hernia Surgery and he could have a down year in his contract year....... A year that he turns 30 in December

5 yrs max ..... 6 mill is on the table

Another reason you don't do this deal.

 

[supersonic jet]

Another reason you don't do this deal.

Ladd 4yrs max at 6mil
Bufff
4yrs max at 7mil
If either are not happy with term we trade both at trade deadline for for a boat load of prospects.
next yr there is supposed to be a lot of free agents available and if we watch our cap we can sign them with out costing us anything.
It is their move now if they want to stay with a club that is trending up they can sign but I don't want to give out a contract that could cripple the future.

 

[CaptainChef]

I tend to agree with the bolded. I don't want us to get in the habit of riding assets off the cliff but in my mind a worse result than zero return is a bad deal that you are stuck with long term.

This is Chevy's toughest summer by a long shot IMO. Older guys wanting to cash in on past glories. A Team that may be able to win a cup in 2 to 3 seasons if a couple of rookies step up and we catch a break. Maybe they need Ladd and or Buff to make the dream happen, maybe they are the guys that get in the way if they make Big cash and tail off? Dammed if you do dammed if you don't, back seat drivers buckle up.

Oh to have a crystal ball.

There was an analyst on H & L this week that was arguing just that point in regards to Ladd and presumably Buff. He was giving Wpg a reasonable chance of going all the way in 2-3 years (if everything went right, etc etc of course). But there is that feeling out there not only from the Wpg observers but from a few sources.

Not convinced myself. As has been said by a couple folks, probably better to let them walk for next to nothing than to sign them to a bad long-term albatross.

Just hope Chevy recognizes if one or both are not on board and are only out for what they can get now. That in my mind was Frolic, and he should have been sent packing when his value was up there before that 1-year contract was signed last summer. Hard to say what that value might have been but considering what this group has been able to do with any draft pick they are given, I'd far rather they did that than given him everything he wanted.

 

[CaptainChef]

Ladd 4yrs max at 6mil
Bufff
4yrs max at 7mil
If either are not happy with term we trade both at trade deadline for for a boat load of prospects.
next yr there is supposed to be a lot of free agents available and if we watch our cap we can sign them with out costing us anything.
It is their move now if they want to stay with a club that is trending up they can sign but I don't want to give out a contract that could cripple the future.

Sounds great but would never happen. We'd have to be so far out to consider dumping those guys at the TD that it just wont happen. If it gets to that, I'm afraid we have lost them for nothing ala Frolic

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I tend to agree with the bolded. I don't want us to get in the habit of riding assets off the cliff but in my mind a worse result than zero return is a bad deal that you are stuck with long term.

This is Chevy's toughest summer by a long shot IMO. Older guys wanting to cash in on past glories. A Team that may be able to win a cup in 2 to 3 seasons if a couple of rookies step up and we catch a break. Maybe they need Ladd and or Buff to make the dream happen, maybe they are the guys that get in the way if they make Big cash and tail off? Dammed if you do dammed if you don't, back seat drivers buckle up.

Oh to have a crystal ball.

I like this post, particularly the bolded bits. Realistically Chevy is not going to do a perfect job. He has some big things in front of him right now where he can't afford to get it wrong.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ladd 4yrs max at 6mil
Bufff
4yrs max at 7mil
If either are not happy with term we trade both at trade deadline for for a boat load of prospects.
next yr there is supposed to be a lot of free agents available and if we watch our cap we can sign them with out costing us anything.
It is their move now if they want to stay with a club that is trending up they can sign but I don't want to give out a contract that could cripple the future.

Do you really, honestly believe there is any chance of Chevy trading Ladd and/or Buff at the TD?

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Frolik arguably helped the Jets attain the PO's last year: for some, that's not 'losing him for nothing'. Buff and Ladd are more valuable assets, and are likely to be handled differently than Frolik. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[Say What]

Do you really, honestly believe there is any chance of Chevy trading Ladd and/or Buff at the TD?

Well, maybe for the FOA in the 2016 Draft.......so NO!!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Frolik arguably helped the Jets attain the PO's last year: for some, that's not 'losing him for nothing'. Buff and Ladd are more valuable assets, and are likely to be handled differently than Frolik. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

We got 2 years out of Frolik for what we paid, a 3rd and a 5th. That included making the playoffs. Fair value. Then we lost him for nothing. The one thing doesn't wipe out the other. If you buy a $3 lottery ticket that wins a million$ do you pocket $3 and then throw away $999,997? We had an asset. It is gone. We got nothing in exchange. No judgement. No good, bad or indifferent. Facts. Make of it whatever you like.

The equation is the same for Ladd and Buff but the values are much higher. I hope we get more than nothing. I hope we don't sign them to contracts we soon regret. Anything in between is varying degrees of good.