What is the fair market value of captain Andrew Ladd?

[Savardian Spinarama]

Actually I think Gary's article was spot on today. I especially like the part where he mentions that "The Jets are maturing and so are the problems they face".The price of the Canadian dollar is killing us right now too. I think we may not be able to afford both Ladd and Buff (just my guess) while keeping the cap space and budget to fend off the wolves next summer.

I also liked Lawless's article today. It was one of his better ones I thought. I think they'll get the deal done with Ladd, although the more impatient ones might be steaming for a while yet. Buff I'm not sure, that's a harder one to figure.

Still the consensus cost for Ladd is steep, and a little much for a 3rd liner

 

[KingBogo]

Actually I think Gary's article was spot on today. I especially like the part where he mentions that "The Jets are maturing and so are the problems they face".The price of the Canadian dollar is killing us right now too. I think we may not be able to afford both Ladd and Buff (just my guess) while keeping the cap space and budget to fend off the wolves next summer.

I also thought it was a pretty good article but pretty much the same talking points he has been making on 1290. I'm sure Chevy has mapped out the salary structure over and over again. Ladd & Buff and then next year Trouba, Scheifele and Lowry. Followed by MP & Burmi and then the following season Little the same year as this season's wave of ELC's. If the cap stays stagnant or only rises by the player's 5% escalator tough decisions will have to be made. The guys coming off the books will be a lot less then the new salaries getting added.

 

[potroaster]

Lawless basically said he wasn't that crazy about Ladd as a player, but feels like the Jets owe it to him to pay him what he wants because he is the Captain. And that no one shows up hungover after games. Pay him the 6 year 40 mil already.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Lawless basically said he wasn't that crazy about Ladd as a player, but feels like the Jets owe it to him to pay him what he wants because he is the Captain. And that no one shows up hungover after games. Pay him the 6 year 40 mil already.

30g/60pt player that skates well, fights, has a great shot, has leadership qualities, plays the toughs against the best in the league, PK's, PP's, and hits. Yeah: I can see why Lawless doesn't like him.



Did he actually mention why he didn't like him as a player?

 

[Channelcat]

Ladds next deal is not about the Jets, this is most likely going to be his "ride into the sunset" deal. Looking at it from Ladds perspective its only about securing the future for him and his young family. On the other hand, from a business perspective and from a fan perspective, this is time for the team to move on. In my opinion, there is no chance that we get fair return for this next contract.

 

[potroaster]

30g/60pt player that skates well, fights, has a great shot, has leadership qualities, plays the toughs against the best in the league, PK's, PP's, and hits. Yeah: I can see why Lawless doesn't like him.



Did he actually mention why he didn't like him as a player?

He didn't say on 1290 that he disliked him as a player. But wasn't awestruck. I can confirm hearing that on the radio.

 

[KingBogo]

Lawless basically said he wasn't that crazy about Ladd as a player, but feels like the Jets owe it to him to pay him what he wants because he is the Captain. And that no one shows up hungover after games. Pay him the 6 year 40 mil already.

I'm going to use this as a starting point if you don't mind as I have heard Lawless mention this number a few times. So potential and confirmed cap hits for the 2016-17 season;

Ladd - 6.67
Wheeler - 5.6
Little - 4.7
Stafford - 4.35
Scheifele - 5.0 (assuming the trend of signing top RFA's long term and being conservative)
Lowry - 4.0 (same idea as Scheifele)
MP - 3.0
Burmi - 1.6
Thor - 1.2
Enstrom - 5.75
Myers - 5.5
Buff - 7.0 (being conservative)
Trouba - 6.0 (being conservative because if I was his agent Id be looking for more long term)
Stu - 2.65
Chariot - .875
Postma - .887
Pavs - 3.9

That is 17 players past ELCs and under contract for a total of: $68.32

Now lets fill out the roster with the best of our prospects, this is 2 years away after all.

Ehlers - 1.594
Morrissey - 1.363
Armia - 1.244
Petan - .863
Copp - .925
Helly or Hutch - 1.0 (low ball estimate)

Our 23 player roster = $ 75.671

If the players use their 5% cap escalator in 2016-17 the cap will be 74.97 M.

Just signing our current players, and before our current wave of top flight prospects get past their ELCs we are all of a sudden a cap team. IMO that is why Chevy needs to navigate ever so carefully in his negotiations with Ladd and Buff.

 

[surixon]

I'm going to use this as a starting point if you don't mind as I have heard Lawless mention this number a few times. So potential and confirmed cap hits for the 2016-17 season;

Ladd - 6.67
Wheeler - 5.6
Little - 4.7
Stafford - 4.35
Scheifele - 5.0 (assuming the trend of signing top RFA's long term and being conservative)
Lowry - 4.0 (same idea as Scheifele) You don't lock up third liners to term at big dollars. That's just not smart contract management. He gets a bridge deal imo.
MP - 3.0
Burmi - 1.6
Thor - 1.2
Enstrom - 5.75
Myers - 5.5
Buff - 7.0 (being conservative)
Trouba - 6.0 (being conservative because if I was his agent Id be looking for more long term)
Stu - 2.65
Chariot - .875
Postma - .887
Pavs - 3.9

That is 17 players past ELCs and under contract for a total of: $68.32

Now lets fill out the roster with the best of our prospects, this is 2 years away after all.

Ehlers - 1.594
Morrissey - 1.363
Armia - 1.244
Petan - .863
Copp - .925
Helly or Hutch - 1.0 (low ball estimate)

Our 23 player roster = $ 75.671

If the players use their 5% cap escalator in 2016-17 the cap will be 74.97 M.

Just signing our current players, and before our current wave of top flight prospects get past their ELCs we are all of a sudden a cap team. IMO that is why Chevy needs to navigate ever so carefully in his negotiations with Ladd and Buff.

I agree with your general points and salary structure except for Lowry. The only young RFA's that are getting locked up to long term deals right out of their entry level positions are impact players (Top 6 or top 4 dmen) I don't expect that trend to change, the third line/depth players will continue to ink bridge deals imo.

 

[KingBogo]

I agree with your general points and salary structure except for Lowry. The only young RFA's that are getting locked up to long term deals right out of their entry level positions are impact players (Top 6 or top 4 dmen) I don't expect that trend to change, the third line/depth players will continue to ink bridge deals imo.

I just think with Lowry if he builds on his rookie season, especially his play late in the season and playoffs, while he may play 3rd line center the organization wont think of him as a bottom 6 forward and he will get paid accordingly.

 

[surixon]

I just think with Lowry if he builds on his rookie season, especially his play late in the season and playoffs, while he may play 3rd line center the organization wont think of him as a bottom 6 forward and he will get paid accordingly.

Possibly, but I wouldn't be happy if they did. He has never scored at a particularly high enough level to justify a big pay day. Given his likely role next year, he will be hard pressed to top 30 points. Its also not as if he played particularly tough minutes last year anyways, people are starting to overrate what he contributed last year a bit imo. I would be much more comfortable with a Couturier (Much better player) esc bridge deal 2 years 1.85 million cap hit.

If Scheifele pots 55 plus points while beating the toughest minutes on the team again you throw money at him. Trouba is a given.

Even then the Jets will be in tough to fit everyone in. I personally think one of our three high priced defenseman needs to be moved within the next year. It just doesn't work from a cap stand point to allocate 30 million to the Defense core.

Trouba isn't going anywhere and Myers contract is just too good for a market like ours to move, so that leaves one of Buff/Enstrom that needs to get moved imo. That will open up a minimum of 5.7 million.

My lineup 2016-17:

Perrault (3) - Scheifele (5.5) - Ehlers (1.6)
Ladd (6.5) - Little (4.7) - Wheeler (5.6)
Stafford(4.4)-Lowry (1.9)-Burmie (1.6)
Thor (1.2) - Copp (0.9) - Kosmochuk (0.9)
Armia (1.3)

Forwards $39.1 million

Buff (7.5) - Trouba (6)
Morrissey (1.4) - Myers (5.5)
Chariot (0.9) - (Postma (0.9)
Stuart (2.7) - Pardy (1)

Defense $25.9 million

Hutch (2.5)
Helly (1.5)

Goalie $4 million

Total 69 million

This doesn't take into account Petan shooting the lights out in the AHL and him replacing one of Perrault/Stafford on the left side potentially saving another 1.5 million to 3 million.

 

[KingBogo]

Possibly, but I wouldn't be happy if they did. He has never scored at a particularly high enough level to justify a big pay day. Given his likely role next year, he will be hard pressed to top 30 points. Its also not as if he played particularly tough minutes last year anyways, people are starting to overrate what he contributed last year a bit imo. I would be much more comfortable with a Couturier (Much better player) esc bridge deal 2 years 1.85 million cap hit.

If Scheifele pots 55 plus points while beating the toughest minutes on the team again you throw money at him. Trouba is a given.

Even then the Jets will be in tough to fit everyone in. I personally think one of our three high priced defenseman needs to be moved within the next year. It just doesn't work from a cap stand point to allocate 30 million to the Defense core.

Trouba isn't going anywhere and Myers contract is just too good for a market like ours to move, so that leaves one of Buff/Enstrom that needs to get moved imo. That will open up a minimum of 5.7 million.

My lineup 2016-17:

Perrault (3) - Scheifele (5.5) - Ehlers (1.6)
Ladd (6.5) - Little (4.7) - Wheeler (5.6)
Stafford(4.4)-Lowry (1.9)-Burmie (1.6)
Thor (1.2) - Copp (0.9) - Kosmochuk (0.9)
Armia (1.3)

Forwards $39.1 million

Buff (7.5) - Trouba (6)
Morrissey (1.4) - Myers (5.5)
Chariot (0.9) - (Postma (0.9)
Stuart (2.7) - Pardy (1)

Defense $25.9 million

Hutch (2.5)
Helly (1.5)

Goalie $4 million

Total 69 million

This doesn't take into account Petan shooting the lights out in the AHL and him replacing one of Perrault/Stafford on the left side potentially saving another 1.5 million to 3 million.

Bridging Lowry certainly makes sense and may also pay off for him as a couple more years really may cement his worth long term. Interesting you kept us safely under the cap by moving Enstrom and Pavs. Im assuming Pavs is just some slight of hand, but moving Enstrom would be significant.

 

[surixon]

Bridging Lowry certainly makes sense and may also pay off for him as a couple more years really may cement his worth long term. Interesting you kept us safely under the cap by moving Enstrom and Pavs. Im assuming Pavs is just some slight of hand, but moving Enstrom would be significant.

I'm banking on Pavs being movable with one year left on his deal, if not Hutch likely is moved and the 1.4 million cap increase still leaves us under. As mentioned there are a number of scenarios alternatives that can be utilized to keep us under the cap, predominantly Stafford and Perrault being very movable being 1 year away from UFA.

I do think a tough decision does need to be made on defense sooner rather than later. No other team comes close to the 30 million that we'd need to keep everyone. I like Enstrom, but there are some signs that he is starting to slow down a bit, it might be prudent to move him now while he still holds a lot of value. I also think Morrissey might smash down the doors at camp making it difficult to justify sending him down.

On a general league level, it is fascinating to watch how GMs are really jumping on signing their RFA's to big deals right after their entry level deals. I do understand that more and more evidence is coming to light showing that players peak in their early to mid 20's, which makes the shift in philosophy understandable. I however have some reservations that such a hard shift (Player A has one good year during their entry level now has a 5 year deal) wont result in GMs having to buyout their mistakes, much like what happened with a lot of the big UFA deals to 30 plus year old players. The concept is the same really; your now banking on players realizing their potential and being impactfull through their peaks vs banking on a player diminishing slightly from an already established level of play. I think it goes without saying that a number of players never come close to reaching their potential.

I think the smart GM resists the urge jump in with crowd and takes the new data and applies it on a player by player basis. Some young players should absolutely be locked up (A player like Scheifele who has done nothing but trend up since being drafted barring bad year next year would be a smart bet to continue to develop and provide value for a long term deal, ditto for Trouba who has already shown he can perform at an exceptional level at a young age.)

 

[Boreal]

I was hoping for 6 x 6. Even that appears to be the low-water mark now. I really want Laddy back, though.

 

[Evil Little]

Just a friendly reminder:

Enström has a full no-movement clause, and may not be tradeable at all, let alone for full value (if we're worrying about asset value these days...).

 

[Boreal]

Just a friendly reminder:

Enström has a full no-movement clause, and may not be tradeable at all, let alone for full value (if we're worrying about asset value these days...).

Generally speaking, that would concern me. However, with out left-handed depth so barren on the backend, even with the emergence of Morrissey and to a lesser extent, Chiarot, we still need Enstrom through the end of the 2017-18 campaign when his contract runs out.

Of all the players to trade, Enstrom shouldn't be anywhere near the list, let alone on it.

 

[Evil Little]

Generally speaking, that would concern me. However, with out left-handed depth so barren on the backend, even with the emergence of Morrissey and to a lesser extent, Chiarot, we still need Enstrom through the end of the 2017-18 campaign when his contract runs out.

Of all the players to trade, Enstrom shouldn't be anywhere near the list, let alone on it.

That I agree with this wholeheartedly, but arguing that point is more difficult and, in this case, moot.

 

[ps241]

30g/60pt player that skates well, fights, has a great shot, has leadership qualities, plays the toughs against the best in the league, PK's, PP's, and hits. Yeah: I can see why Lawless doesn't like him.



Did he actually mention why he didn't like him as a player?

It was really an awkward exchange you almost have to hear the audio clip. Gary was pumping Andrew's tires for most of the bit then seemed to try to achieve more balance with an off handed comment?

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

Really good thread, some excellent posts in here.

Just wondering, with the possibility of new teams over the next few seasons and the money that will generate, will that have an effect on the potential salary cap?

I believe Ladd is worth a 6/40ish type contract. He has done everything asked of him over the course of his last contract, showed improvement throughout its duration, is a solid leader for this team. I do not think he will become complacent, and will work his butt off to provide value.

Ideally I would like Chevy to work a 5 year contract, but I believe that would not be had for less than 7mill per.

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Ladd is currently 29 years old and turns 30 this December.
He has one year remaining at 4,4 mill.

If we give him a 6 year deal we have him tied up for the next 7 years until he is 36.5 years old.

I like Ladd and I think we should sign him but for less than 6 years.

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

Ladd is currently 29 years old and turns 30 this December.
He has one year remaining at 4,4 mill.

If we give him a 6 year deal we have him tied up for the next 7 years until he is 36.5 years old.

I like Ladd and I think we should sign him but for less than 6 years.

I guess the question is, what has a bigger negative affect towards us retaining our younger core, 1 extra year term or a substantial AAV related to a 5 year term?

 

[YWGinYYZ]

I guess the question is, what has a bigger negative affect towards us retaining our younger core, 1 extra year term or a substantial AAV related to a 5 year term?

I'd prefer to see a higher AAV and a shorter term, personally.

 

[Gm0ney]

With the cap changing every year, it helps to think about salaries in terms of %-of-cap.

$5,000,000 today = $4,500,000 in 2011 - so cap-inflation-adjusted, a $5M AAV for Ladd is basically saying he doesn't deserve a raise.

$6,000,000 today = $5,400,000 in 2011
$7,000,000 today = $6,300,000 in 2011

Anything around $6M over 5 years is a really good deal.

 

[cheswick]

Ladds next deal is not about the Jets, this is most likely going to be his "ride into the sunset" deal. Looking at it from Ladds perspective its only about securing the future for him and his young family. On the other hand, from a business perspective and from a fan perspective, this is time for the team to move on. In my opinion, there is no chance that we get fair return for this next contract.

He's made over $30mm in his career and his wife is a doctor. I think his young family has nothing to worry about.

 

[CaptainChef]

Possibly, but I wouldn't be happy if they did. He has never scored at a particularly high enough level to justify a big pay day. Given his likely role next year, he will be hard pressed to top 30 points. Its also not as if he played particularly tough minutes last year anyways, people are starting to overrate what he contributed last year a bit imo. I would be much more comfortable with a Couturier (Much better player) esc bridge deal 2 years 1.85 million cap hit.

If Scheifele pots 55 plus points while beating the toughest minutes on the team again you throw money at him. Trouba is a given.

Even then the Jets will be in tough to fit everyone in. I personally think one of our three high priced defenseman needs to be moved within the next year. It just doesn't work from a cap stand point to allocate 30 million to the Defense core.

Trouba isn't going anywhere and Myers contract is just too good for a market like ours to move, so that leaves one of Buff/Enstrom that needs to get moved imo. That will open up a minimum of 5.7 million.

My lineup 2016-17:

Perrault (3) - Scheifele (5.5) - Ehlers (1.6)
Ladd (6.5) - Little (4.7) - Wheeler (5.6)
Stafford(4.4)-Lowry (1.9)-Burmie (1.6)
Thor (1.2) - Copp (0.9) - Kosmochuk (0.9)
Armia (1.3)

Forwards $39.1 million

Buff (7.5) - Trouba (6)
Morrissey (1.4) - Myers (5.5)
Chariot (0.9) - (Postma (0.9)
Stuart (2.7) - Pardy (1)

Defense $25.9 million

Hutch (2.5)
Helly (1.5)

Goalie $4 million

Total 69 million

This doesn't take into account Petan shooting the lights out in the AHL and him replacing one of Perrault/Stafford on the left side potentially saving another 1.5 million to 3 million.

Nice analysis. On D, I too think that Enstrom is here to stay until his contract is up but Buff will have to go (that's a $1.7 saving there). Troubs has a real tough agent & if he has a good year, I think he asks for more than $6 mil for his next contract when all is said & done.

On F, numbers for Schief at $5.5 may be a tad high, but Lowry at 1.9 may be a tad low. Don't see Kosmo in there yet, but I do see Petan -- perhaps kicking Burmi down to the 4th line.

Better factor Pavs & his 3.9 in there as well because I don't see him going anywhere till his contract is up. Hutch at 2.5 may be a little high though. Unless he has a much better year than last, I see him as trade bait or possibly in the A (replaced by Helle).

All in all, high 60s for total salary sounds reasonable.

 

[KingBogo]

With the cap changing every year, it helps to think about salaries in terms of %-of-cap.

$5,000,000 today = $4,500,000 in 2011 - so cap-inflation-adjusted, a $5M AAV for Ladd is basically saying he doesn't deserve a raise.

$6,000,000 today = $5,400,000 in 2011
$7,000,000 today = $6,300,000 in 2011

Anything around $6M over 5 years is a really good deal.

I think if Ladd was willing to $6 X 5 he would have been signed no later than July 2nd. Id be willing to go longer term with Ladd if he was willing to take the corresponding hit on on AAV. IMO 6 X 6 is fair for Ladd. If he went to market after that at 36 yo he is likely worth half that. So maybe 42 M over 8 years for a $5.25 cap hit. Only if he was willing to structure it so it was back diving as it could be under the CBA and had a relatively flexible NTC. If Ladds last 2 years were an actual salary of $3 M he is likely still movable, as he is likely still a pretty effective player. IMO he will likely age well.