Well if thats the case pretty much any center under 23 performing well is "becoming" an elite center.
What Draft position would you take now without going into Lottery?
- Thread starter Jetsetter
- Start date
Well if thats the case pretty much any center under 23 performing well is "becoming" an elite center.
Uh no. I'm basing my statement on the eye test of what I'm seeing from Scheifele.
I'd wait before I start throwing the "elite" label around. He still has a long ways to go. If he keeps improving he may surpass Little but he's pretty far from being "elite" or at least what I would consider elite.
broinwhyteridge
Registered User
Don't understand how first overall isn't the answer. Either that or I don't understand the question, which with the brain atrophy I've suffered is certainly possible.
winnipegger
Registered User
- Dec 17, 2013
- 8,211
- 6,567
I have decided to run the simulator in the morning every day to try to give me something to be joyful about. Today's spin of the dial brought: 1. Leafs 2. Calgary 3. Edmonton 4. Jets
Not totally bad. Please don't tell me this is pointless, it's all I have left.
Not totally bad. Please don't tell me this is pointless, it's all I have left.
I think the better question is: What would you be satisfied with?
If the Jets end up 4th but end up picking 7th, will you be okay with that? If they end up 5th but end up picking 8th, is that okay? Where is your personal cut off point?
I think we need to temper our expectations, because the odds are against the Jets if they finish 4th.
If they finish 4th, they have a 67.9% chance of moving back either 1,2 or 3 spots, a 3.1% chance of staying in 4th and a 29% chance of moving up.
There's a 27.3% percent chance that they move back one and a 33.2% chance that they move back 2, so the odds are that if the Jets end up 4th, they will actually end up picking 5th or 6th.
To that end, how would you feel if Edmonton got the first pick, (Again!), Vancouver jumped up to #2 and Montreal jumped to #3, leaving the Jets with the 6th overall pick?
I think if certain teams jump ahead of us, it's going to "hurt" worse. Even if picking 6th isn't so bad. Perception is king.
If the Jets end up 4th but end up picking 7th, will you be okay with that? If they end up 5th but end up picking 8th, is that okay? Where is your personal cut off point?
I think we need to temper our expectations, because the odds are against the Jets if they finish 4th.
If they finish 4th, they have a 67.9% chance of moving back either 1,2 or 3 spots, a 3.1% chance of staying in 4th and a 29% chance of moving up.
There's a 27.3% percent chance that they move back one and a 33.2% chance that they move back 2, so the odds are that if the Jets end up 4th, they will actually end up picking 5th or 6th.
To that end, how would you feel if Edmonton got the first pick, (Again!), Vancouver jumped up to #2 and Montreal jumped to #3, leaving the Jets with the 6th overall pick?
I think if certain teams jump ahead of us, it's going to "hurt" worse. Even if picking 6th isn't so bad. Perception is king.
I'll be thrilled if we move up at all from whatever our final position is.
I'll be happy if we don't get bumped down.
I'll be slightly disappointed if we drop 1 slot.
I'll be somewhat angry if we drop 2.
I'll be spitting fire and burning a Bettman effigy at Portage and Main if we drop 3.
untouchable21
I am not the guy you want to be wrong about.
I agree with Dascow. After all these losses if we see teams with better records picking ahead of us, it will surely sting.
For me, the cutoff is #5 or #6 in the worst case scenario. That said, the optics may be different once we know exactly where the Jets finish in the standings. Finishing better than the bottom 3 greatly increases the odds of picking out of the top 5 or 6.
For me, the cutoff is #5 or #6 in the worst case scenario. That said, the optics may be different once we know exactly where the Jets finish in the standings. Finishing better than the bottom 3 greatly increases the odds of picking out of the top 5 or 6.
- Jun 10, 2014
- 57,394
- 29,212
OK, but it will only lead to clinical depression.
Run it enough times and everybody will draft in reverse order of where they finish but the real thing is only running once.
- Jun 10, 2014
- 57,394
- 29,212
I'm going to learn to really hate this lottery system. The probabilities and the waiting are painful. Why does the NHL want a system that causes their fans pain? This pain is already worse than the pain of tanking or of watching someone else tank.
Coach G
Registered User
Zhamnov5GoalGame
Former Director of GDT Operations
Craig Button discussed this exact topic and generally came down with the extra 3rd round pick was more valuable. All players (even first rounders) are a crap shoot. How they develop and manage things in the NHL is very unknown.
The extra pick is a an extra shot at getting lucky.
Considering the dominant players that have come out of the 6 or 7th round you never know.
Yes the 3rd round pick is a higher chance to bust but it's still a whole extra chance to find someone special.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Heh, wonder where Button formulated his opinion from...
That said I did calculate it:
http://jetsnation.ca/2016/2/27/jets...uld-the-jets-cheer-for-or-against-andrew-ladd
Double down - all or nothing. I'll take the lottery, and a chance at first over any preset draft position at this point.
Me too. No way we can out tank the Leafs. The only chance at #1 is the lottery. IMO the uncertainty between the next 5 - 7 is too great to hang your hat on a certain pick. Maybe you can make a case for 2nd, but that would be it IMO.
I'd take third ... one of Matthews or the two Finns
Me too, but I never buy 50:50 or any other lottery tickets.
Zhamnov5GoalGame
Former Director of GDT Operations
Picking a few spots higher (mid to late 20's) does not really increase the chance of "quality" that much. Pavel Datsyuk went undrafted in 1996 & 1997 and then in 1998 was picked with the 171st overall pick.
It does position you slightly better for that pick.
But the extra 3rd rounder could strike gold.
In my opinion were win - win with this.
Chicago doesn't win the cup then our 1st gets better.
If they do we get an extra pick.
Positive spin no matter what happens.
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Zhamnov5GoalGame
Former Director of GDT Operations
Slightly off topic but how much would your head explode if the Jets won the lottery...
Then went off board and selected a player outside of the consensus top 5??????
Would you be able to assume that they had info we don't?
A second scenario would be that they win the lottery and then trade down... likely getting some juicy assets in return and a fairly lower 1st round pick.
(I think there would be a riot at Portage and Main)
Then went off board and selected a player outside of the consensus top 5??????
Would you be able to assume that they had info we don't?
A second scenario would be that they win the lottery and then trade down... likely getting some juicy assets in return and a fairly lower 1st round pick.
(I think there would be a riot at Portage and Main)
Slightly off topic but how much would your head explode if the Jets won the lottery...
Then went off board and selected a player outside of the consensus top 5??????
Would you be able to assume that they had info we don't?
A second scenario would be that they win the lottery and then trade down... likely getting some juicy assets in return and a fairly lower 1st round pick.
(I think there would be a riot at Portage and Main)
If they do either of those things I may lead the march down to the MTSC myself and light the fire... Just to watch it burn.
